Mobile: The Fourth Wave Of IT

Fourth wave of IT, next big thing in IT: Mobile internet, anytime, anywhere It is not the strongest of the species that networked computing and fourth wave, survives, nor the most intelligent that the era of IT everywhere3. survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change1. The Forrester report stated Mobile Charles Darwin internet would bring changes and have far reaching implications on in global 1.1 The fourth wave, the era of IT trade and commerce (Figure 1) 4. everywhere. Morgan Stanley in its 2009 Technology report at Web Summit concurred by Do you and me, the user, have urge to Mines thesis of 2006 & stated that constantly get information, exchange information with rest of the world? If we do, then do we prefer carrying a Television or laptop or Mobile or Smartphone with us all the times, at home, office, school or while travelling? Which device do we use for gaining and exchanging information? If it is the mobile, smartphone then how many consumers have (penetration of) these devices today and what are future trends? Forrester researcher Christopher Mines, in his presentation, “The next big thing for IT” in June 2005 professed about the “The fourth wave of IT”2. Mines visioned four eras of IT and consequently named each era as four waves of Information technology as per their respective eras. His classification of these eras are, first wave, from 1956 to 1976, the era of main frame computers, the second wave , from 1976 to 1992, the era of personal computers, the third wave, from 1992 to 2008, the era of 3 Forrester report at WITSA, World Information 1 Charles Darwin quotes Technology and Services Alliance http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/c/ch http://www.witsa.org/presentations/ 4 arles_darwin.html WITSA, World Information Technology and 2 Forrester researcher, Christopher Mines, Services Alliance presentation, “The next big thing for IT” http://www.witsa.org/hyderabad08/WITSA_Publ http://www.forrester.com/rb/analyst/christopher_ icPolicyReport08.pdf mines 1

“Mobile internet would be bigger than Laptop and desktop. He mentions that what most think”.5 there is a convergence of Networks, applications and technology. 1.2 Convergence of Networks, applications and technology. On examining the thesis that mobile would have a greater than any other 1. Technology and Networks technological breakthrough in the past, convergence: our quest was answered by the simple The networks architecture is maturing fact that the penetration of mobile and from days of using ATM, to all IP, the number of mobile handsets in hands making things simpler. From days of of the consumer which is 3.3 billion best effort service, networking has much larger than any other piece of moved to Diffserve and MPLS providing hardware. control over data control and preference in data flow required for efficient However, it not just the number game handling of data traffic in today’s age of that has led to excitement around the network traffic congestion. globe for mobile technologies in recent With advent of Wimax specially the past. Wimax 16e, a technology which is compatible with both fixed and mobile Ramjee Prasad in his paper explains why Wimax and technologies like LTE, we are now seeing rise of Mobile and convergence is taking place amongst the why Mobile would soon become the new network providers be it Wireless, fixed client server frontier replacing the and broadcast. Along with these companies like Intel, 5 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet report Qualcomm developed small and better October 2009 at Web 2.0 Summit – San processors for mobile, better chips for Francisco www.morganstanley.com/techresearch enabling reception of dual technologies 6 7 http://www.slideshare.net/techdude/economy- http://www.cloudfour.com/blog/ internet-trends-2009-from-morgan-stanley 2

like GSM, GPRS, WiFi on single chip streamed on smartphones, checking and software defined radio for military weather in morning to train schedules, to use. meeting alerts, checking balance bank statement. This has made mobile central part of consumer lifestyle. Better browsers for mobile like Opera, better mobile operating systems like Apple, Android, Symbian by Nokia, RIM, Windows Mobile have made mobile experience more easier, faster, for the mobile user. The opening of mobile applications market from the above companies etc have further enhanced the value of Mobile smartphone to consumer resulting in sudden spurt in demand of smartphones and also Netbooks, smartbooks8. This movement of applications from desktop platforms to wireless and mobile configurations may have a significant impact on future daily activities.9 Coupled with high data rates came the proliferation of devices from Smartphones like I-phone to Netbook GPS, E-reader, Mobile internet device (MID) based on newer and better operating systems like Apple mobile, Windows mobile and recently Android operating system has led to better mobile hardware systems. These advancements in the mobile and wireless technology has made possible, what was impossible a decade ago possible now – emergence of mobile applications market. 8 TOWARDS MORE USABLE MOBILE High throughput rates on Mobile due to APPLICATION DEVELOPMENT advent of 2.5G and 3G technologies, Dr. W. M. Lim, Mobile Technology, smaller form factor of mobile is making Applications and Systems, 2005 2nd it easy to carry. Consumer’s need for International Conference on 9 applications ranging from instant Comparative study of "functional" mobile information to emails to mobile maps to applications, Papadopoulos Homer, Personal, Indoor and Mobile Radio mobile banking to VoIP calls using Communications, 2008. PIMRC 2008. IEEE smartphone to watching favorite video 19th International Symposium on 3

2. While cellular broadband applications made up less than 7% of this unit volume in 2009, this market will grow at a 35% CAGR to account for over 16% of total chipsets by 2013, far outpacing the growth in the mobile phone market. 3. While most cellular broadband chipsets have been consumed by industrial/M2M applications prior to 2008, portable PCs and mini-notebooks (also known as netbooks) will drive a majority of the segment growth going forward, followed by a variety of other consumer, health/medical, and automotive applications. These developments have led to fundamental change in Internet delivery from days of Cable when the Data was delivered over the copper wires to now when Voice is being delivered over the Data using technologies like UMTS, GPRS, CDMA, lately Wimax.11. These developments have made internet a necessity from luxury in the past. 1.3 Growth trends in Mobile computing IDC latest report brings good news for Telecommunications and particularly portable PC (Mobile, Netbook industry). Key IDC findings from this market outlook include: “1. Worldwide cellular chipsets will grow at a 9.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) on a unit basis from 2009 to 2014. 4. Strong growth in cellular broadband, primarily driven by portable PCs, mininotebooks, and mobile Internet devices (MIDs)/smartbooks will help 10 NTT DoCoMo http://www.nttdocomo.com/ accelerate the migration of this segment 11 12 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet report Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet report October 2009 at Web 2.0 Summit – San October 2009 at Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco www.morganstanley.com/techresearch Francisco www.morganstanley.com/techresearch 4

from 2G and 2.5G technologies to 3.5G and 4G technologies over the next several years. The rollout of LTE will greatly encourage this migration starting in 2011.”13 Given the above mentioned trends it is safe to say that portable PC (Smartphone, Netbooks, Slates) have started and are becoming the new client server for masses, a position once enjoyed by fixed laptop, desktops, and two, that we are entering the era of “always connected with the world via Internet anywhere, anytime 13 Portable PC rise http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp? sessionId=&containerId=prUS22154210&sessio nId=AKSDRCJNSHOXYCQJAFDCFEYKBEA VAIWD 14 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet report October 2009 at Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco www.morganstanley.com/techresearch 5

Mobile: The Fourth Wave Of IT

by Kartik Mehta on Feb 10, 2010

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Mobile: The Fourth Wave Of IT — Document Transcript