Mobility Services Kagerbauer

331 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
331
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Mobility Services Kagerbauer

  1. 1. KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES KARLSRUHE SERVICE RESEARCH INSTITUTE www.kit.edu KSRI Summer School Dr.-Ing. Martin Kagerbauer Dr. Wibke Michalk Karlsruher Institute for Technology (KIT) Karlsruher Institute for Technology (KIT) Senior Researcher at the KIT Institute for Transport Studies Managing Director at the Head of Topic Infrastructure Traffic and Mobility Behavior Karlsruhe Service Research Institute at the KIT Mobility Systems Center
  2. 2. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 2 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Agenda 10:30 – 11:15 Travel Demand (Surveys), Trends in Mobility Research 11:15 – 12:00 Business Models in the Mobility Sector 13:30 – 15:00 Hands On Session: The Future of Mobility 15:30 – 17:00 Present your Solutions!
  3. 3. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 3 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Outline Travel Behavior in a Glance Travel Survey Methods International Germany Results Future Trends in Mobility Behavior
  4. 4. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 4 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Quelle: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association: Motor Vehicles Worldwide, 2012 International View Changing Markets? Industrialized countries vs. Emerging markets Saturation of travel demand Increasing travel demand and car ownership and car ownership Registrationofnewcars Year China Brasil India Russia Germany Mexico Japan US
  5. 5. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 5 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer International View Times Series of travel demand in different countries Source: T. Kuhnimhof : Are Young Men Responsible for Peak Car? Vortrag beim Peak Travel Round Table, IFSTTAR, Paris, 19.6.2012
  6. 6. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 6 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Data Countries with National Travel Behavior Surveys (NTS) Source: COST Action SHANTI
  7. 7. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 7 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Data Countries with National Travel Behavior Surveys (NTS) Source: COST Action SHANTI
  8. 8. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 8 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Data Are the survey data comparable? Source: COST Action SHANTI Δ 3% persons 15+ persons 0+ persons 10+ persons 0+
  9. 9. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 9 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Data Are the survey data comparable? Source: COST Action SHANTI 88% trip makers 90% trip makers 92% trip makers 78% trip makers
  10. 10. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 10 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Data Are the survey data comparable? Source: COST Action SHANTI
  11. 11. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 11 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Data Are the survey data comparable? – Yes! Source: COST Action SHANTI
  12. 12. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 12 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Two complementary surveys in Germany MiD (= German NTS) MOP Design Repeated cross-sectional survey Longitudinal panel survey  Daily travel behavior: 7 consecutive days (autumn) in 3 consecutive years  Odometer reading: all refuel processes of all car in the MOP sample (spring) in 8 weeks in three consecutive years Net sample Large (~ 25.000 HH) Small (~ 1.000 HH) Frequency Irregular (every 6 to 8 years) Every year Contractor  Field work: infas (2002, 2008)  Scientific supervisors: DIW (2002), DLR (2008)  Field work: infratest (since 1994) infas (cohort 2003)  Scientific supervisor: KIT Funding BMVBS (Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development)
  13. 13. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 13 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer German Surveys in comparison: Net Sample Size KONTIV 1976 KONTIV 1982 KONTIV 1989 MiD 2002 MiD 2008 MOP since 1994 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1976 1982 1989 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sample size MOP [HH] Sample size KONTIV / MiD [HH] Year
  14. 14. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 14 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Coverage MiD MOP Sampling frame Official population registry Market research bus Sampling unit Individual person (aged ≧ 14) Household Sampling stratification  16 federal states (Bundesländer)  17 regional / community types Germany  5 regional types  4 household types  car ownership Weighting (post stratification)  5 HH sizes  7 regional types  7 weekdays / 12 months  Age / sex  4 HH sizes  3 groups car ownership  3 groups population of home location  Age / sex Respondents Up to 8 HH members aged ≧ 0 Up to 5 HH members aged ≧ 10 Individual / HH reporting period  1 day (trip diary)  up to 3 journeys with overnight stay (3 months retrospectively)  1 week (trip diary)  8 weeks (odometer reading) Overall reporting period Every day of an entire year  Several weeks in autumn (HH questionnaire, trip diary)  8 weeks in spring (odometer reading)
  15. 15. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 15 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Instruments MiD 2002 * MOP since 1994 HH level  PAPI (if no phone number is available)  CATI  PAPI Person level  PAPI Trip level  PAPI MiD 2008 * HH level **  PAPI (if no phone number is available) (~ 7%)  CATI (~ 85%)  CAWI (~ 8%) Person level  CATI (100%) Trip level  CATI (100%) * proxy interview for children: mandatory below age of 10, voluntary from age 10 to 13 ** HH eligible only, if at least 50% of HH members completed both person and trip interview
  16. 16. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 16 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Survey Process MiD MOP Sampling method  Random sampling with geographic stratification  Random sampling of the market research bus with geographic and household specific stratification Recruiting letter  Dissemination of survey material  1st phone call (HH interview)  mailing of HH questionnaire  Phone call (ask for participation)  Mailing of questionnaire and trip diary  Mailing of memory jogger  Reminder for trip diary  Reminder (if necessary)  2nd phone call (individual questionnaire / trip reporting) Coding  Plausibility check  Basic analysis 
  17. 17. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 17 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD MOP HH size; type; vehicle ownership; income; phone number size; type; area/ park condition of home location; vehicle ownership and use; accessability of public transport/ of usual destinations, income Person socio-demographics; school/ occupation; long-distance trips; accessibility of public transport/ of usual destinations; general mode choice; individual availablity of car/ bike/ public transport ticket; handicaps; weather conditions socio-demographics; school/ occupation; area of working place; parking conditions at work, individual availablity of car/ bike/ public transport ticket; handicaps Trip purpose; type of O/ D; distance; duration; mode(s); regular business trips weekday, start and end time of trip, purpose; mode(s); distance; HH car manufacturer/ model; engine type/ power; type of registration; year of manufacture/ purchase; usual parking place; annual mileage; current odometer reading; main driver Journey purpose; destination area; mode Odometer reading type of car (see MiD), milage, refuel process (date, odometer reading, amount, costs) MiD / MOP in comparison: Content
  18. 18. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 18 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Content
  19. 19. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 19 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Content
  20. 20. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 20 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Content
  21. 21. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 21 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Content
  22. 22. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 22 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Content
  23. 23. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 23 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP in comparison: Available material General data availability for third parties Academia, political decision makers, public authorities, planning engineers, transport providers, etc. Access is subject to prior registration MiD MOP Data sets  HH, person, trip, car, journeys  various file formats  HH, person, person per day, trip  Car (mileage/ fuel consumption)  various file formats Codebook   User guide / manual   Methodological report   (part of the analytic report) Tabular report   (part of the analytic report) Analytical report   Analysis tool  --- Website  
  24. 24. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 24 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Options for analysis: MOP 517 297 161 447 203 173 1123 837 632 513 364 296 504 402 294 1189 761 623 563 417 309 975 766 617 699 524 491 856 599 481 748 575 401 671 448 352 706 573 433 . . . 720 589 442 761 575 480 613 491 404 797 611 … 785 total sample size (517) (744) 1487 1523 1500 1887 1618 2015 1774 1997 1838 1727 1555 1645 1783 1630 1768 1800 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 continu Numberofpersonsindifferentcohortsofayear Selectivity study 2002 pilot study 1991 to 1993 crosssectional results data of one year from all three cohorts longitudinal results data of persons in three consecutive years from one cohort
  25. 25. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 25 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP: Selected results 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Kmperpersonandday Year MOP annual since1994 KONTIV 1976 KONTIV 1982 MID 2002 German Mobility Panel (MOP) Mobility in Germany (MiD) and KONTIV MID 2008
  26. 26. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 26 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer MiD / MOP: Selected results 82 85 89 91 92 31 39 41 39 40 37 45 46 42 44 10,0 11,7 11,8 11,0 11,8 3 3,3 3,5 3,5 3,4 3,7 3,9 3,9 3,8 3,7 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 KONTIV 1982 MiD 2002 MiD 2008 MOP 2002 MOP 2008 Trips [n]Share [%] / Distance [km] Share of mobile persons [%] Distance per person per day [km] Distance per mobile person per day [km] Average trip length [km] Trips per person per day [n] Trips per mobile person per day [n] Persons ≧ 10 years
  27. 27. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 27 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Two survey approaches: (Dis-)Advantages Current state Advantage / Opportunity Disadvantage / Risk Long tradition of both surveys Consistent time series; continuous methodological development Reluctancy to change anything (content, methods) differing sampling frame Complementary coverage of different user groups Sampling bias / selectivity; comparison of incomparable Large (MiD) & small (MOP) sample Combination of continouse survey (trends) and big sample Large sample is expensive Differing reporting periods Complementary analysis Comparison of incomparable if inadequate post-harmonisiation Differing instruments Complementary analysis Methodological bias; comparison of incomparable Similar concepts (e.g. trip) Complementary / parallel analysis --- Similar set of questions / variables Parallel analysis; reciprocal validation Limited comparability due to slight variations Avoidance of pre-aggregated answering options easy post-harmonisation --- Availability for third parties joint / comparative analyses Inaccurate data analysis in case of insufficient expertise
  28. 28. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 28 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Travel activity Respondents  In both surveys, „normal“ people are more likely to participate Data quality: Selectivity of samples Immobility due to handicaps? Not interested in (travel) surveys? Low income? Many business trips? Busy people: lack of time? Many recreational trips? High income? Many HH cars?
  29. 29. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 29 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Traveled km in Germany Use of public transport and cars in different age groups Source: Kagerbauer and Vortisch.2013
  30. 30. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 30 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Modes in Germany Share of modes (trips) All persons Modal split [%] all persons in Germany: decreasing car use Source: own calculations PT Bike Walk Car Pass. Car Driver Others Year
  31. 31. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 31 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Modes in Germany Modal split [%] persons up to 30 years old in Germany: decreasing car use and increasing use of PT Share of modes (trips) All persons up to 30 years old Source: own calculations PT Bike Walk Others Year Car Pass. Car Driver
  32. 32. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 32 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Verkehrsleistung in Deutschland Modal split [%] persons 60 years old and more in Germany: increasing car use Share of modes (trips) All persons 60 years old and more Source: own calculations PT Bike Walk Others Year Car Pass. Car Driver
  33. 33. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 33 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Car availability 0 20 40 60 80 100 18 bis unter 35 35 bis unter 60 60 und älter Shareofpeoplewithcar[%] 1996-1999 2005-2008 Deutsches Mobilitätspanel Less car availability by younger persons – more car availability by elderly Car availibility by age groups – End of 90s and today Source: own calculations
  34. 34. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 34 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Travel behavior changes Increasing multimodal travel behavior Used modes in the last 15 years all persons source: Kunert; Radke; Chlond; Kagerbauer: DIW Economic Bulletin, 2013
  35. 35. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 35 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Demographic changes Germany Quelle: DESTATIS
  36. 36. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 36 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Demographic changes Germany Quelle: DESTATIS
  37. 37. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 37 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Demographic changes Karlsruhe Quelle:BertelsmannStiftung Quelle: Bertelsmann Stiftung
  38. 38. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 38 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Demographic changes Karlsruhe Quelle: Bertelsmann Stiftung
  39. 39. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 39 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Conclusions Stagnation of traveled km per Person Decreasing car use of young adults Increasing car use of elderly people Differences between rural areas and conurbations Demographic development Population is decreasing (in Europe and Germany) Population is getting older More population in conurbations – less in rural areas Increasing inter- and multimodal travel behavior Use of all modes and and complementary mode us depending on the situation Mobility Services are getting more and more inportant Generation „iPhone“
  40. 40. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 40 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Trends of development Quelle: BITKOM, 2010 Question: „I can not imagine a life, without …“ Internet is getting more and more important instead of cars Handy Internet car my partner All 14 to 29 years
  41. 41. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 41 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Reasons? Season tickets for students Quellen: Google Bilder: http://www.google.de Mobility attitude Social Media and Apps Other reasons
  42. 42. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 42 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Outlook
  43. 43. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 43 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Outlook The futures mobility? Quellen: www.bmw.de Connected drive integrates Facebook, Twitter and flinc (agency for arranging rides)
  44. 44. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 44 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Outlook Futures mobilty Car use instead of car ownership Multimodal instead of monomodal Mobility services Car-Sharing Mobility apps New mobility ideas … Source: Own figure Complete solution Complementary modes
  45. 45. Institute for Transport Studies Karlsruhe Service Research Institute Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 45 26. September 2013 Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer Agenda 10:30 – 11:15 Travel Demand (Surveys), Trends in Mobility Research 11:15 – 12:00 Business Models in the Mobility Sector 13:30 – 15:00 Hands On Session: The Future of Mobility 15:30 – 17:00 Present your Solutions!

×