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Indie Game Developers and the Facebook of Doom
 

Indie Game Developers and the Facebook of Doom

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What does 2010 hold for the independent Facebook game developer?

What does 2010 hold for the independent Facebook game developer?

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    Indie Game Developers and the Facebook of Doom Indie Game Developers and the Facebook of Doom Presentation Transcript

    •  
    • Our feature presentation:
      • What does the coming year hold for the independent Facebook game developer?
    • The story of Facebook so far
      • Three big episodes:
      • 2007-2008: The pioneering debut
      • 2008-2009: The difficult sequel
      • 2009-2010: Increased quality & maturity
      • And what next?
      • 4. 2010-2011: The lame cash-in?
    • The story of Facebook so far
      • 2007-2008: the pioneering debut
      • Viral growth, poke apps, simple games
      • Developers working out how to make money
      • Generally low quality apps
      • Novelty value and user freshness
    • The story of Facebook so far
      • 2008-2009: the difficult sequel
      • Facebook removing/limiting viral channels
      • The Mafia/Mob wars
      • Realisation that apps could make money
        • Lots of money, >$1m/month
      • Mid 2009: world + dog decides to get into social games
    • The story of Facebook so far
      • 2009-2010: more quality & maturity
      • More Facebook redesigns, less viral growth
      • Increased game quality
      • Big-name entries into the market
      • Big money: EA buys Playfish for $300m+
      • The rise and rise of Farm Town, FarmVille and the attack of the clones (yes, I know)
    • The indie developer today
      • Up against it
      • Limited access to resources
      • Facebook favouring the big names
      • Reduced Platform virality
      • Unable to match the quality of new games
    • So what next for Facebook?
      • 2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?
      • Big gaming companies dominate?
      • Impossible to compete on ad spend?
      • Game quality rises and production costs soar?
      • Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims) conquer all?
    • So what next for Facebook?
      • 2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?
      • Big gaming companies dominate?
        • EA, Ubisoft, Zynga, Playdom, CrowdStar
      • Impossible to compete on ad spend?
      • Game quality rises and production costs soar?
      • Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims) conquer all?
    • So what next for Facebook?
      • 2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?
      • Big gaming companies dominate?
      • Impossible to compete on ad spend?
        • Zynga spending $1m+/week on Facebook
      • Game quality rises and production costs soar?
      • Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims) conquer all?
    • So what next for Facebook?
      • 2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?
      • Big gaming companies dominate?
      • Impossible to compete on ad spend?
      • Game quality rises and production costs soar?
        • Competing with Zynga’s 800+ team
      • Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims) conquer all?
    • So what next for Facebook?
      • 2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?
      • Big gaming companies dominate?
      • Impossible to compete on ad spend?
      • Game quality rises and production costs soar?
      • Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims) conquer all?
        • Civilisation coming in the summer, what will EA bring to Playfish (or vice-versa)?
    • Things aren’t looking good
      • How can our indie escape?
    • Fighting the big guns
      • Competing against traditional gaming companies:
      • Big investments need big payoffs
      • No evidence that they can succeed:
      Spore Islands by Electronic Arts Based on the Spore “franchise” Currently around 2.5k DAU
    • 2010: boom and bust
      • Not everyone can win
      • 2010-2011 will be the year of:
      • Increasing user-blindness
        • Reduced virality
        • Fatigue with virtual goods and offer monetisation
      • Virtual-world saturation
      • Social games go from hero to zero
    • Opportunities for Indies
      • Choose your battles:
      • Does increasing quality mean increasing complexity?
      • Do Facebook users even want complexity?
      • The death of the bedroom coder has been predicted for over 20 years now
      • 5 tips that might help
    • My tips
      • #1 Go niche
      • Don’t try to compete with FarmVille – look for an audience that the big guns won’t be interested in
      • Create an edge that deters the cloners
    • My tips
      • #2 Retention, not virality
      • Viral channel effectiveness is reducing
      • Buying traffic is almost inevitable
      • Once you have a user, keep hold of them
    • My tips
      • #3 Concentrate on ARPU (Average Revenue Per User)
      • 100,000k users at 50c per user, or 1m at 5c?
      • A loyal audience monetises better than a mass migratory one
    • My tips
      • #4 Don’t overcomplicate
      • Release fast, early and often
      • Don’t try to compete with the virtual worlds
      • Maximise ARPD (Average Revenue per Developer)
      • Concentrate on fun, not realism
      • … but still maintain depth of play
    • My tips
      • #5 Build a portfolio
      • Not every game will be a success
      • Prepare to move on quickly
      • Cross-promote
      • Make a virtue out of changing your mind
    • A holy grail of app development?
    • A holy grail of app development?
      • Not quite
      • A tough year ahead
      • There are still opportunities for indies
      • Look for the gaps in the market
      • Take advantage of your ability to change
    • Thanks
      • [email_address]
      • www.karlbunyan.co.uk
      • fbExchange.net
      • twitter.com/karlbunyan