IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionThe Dynamics of Radical Right Party Supportand Mainstr...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (I)?Radical Right in Western Europe...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (I)?Radical Right in Western Europe...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (I)?Radical Right in Western Europe...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996,...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996,...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996,...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996,...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996,...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (II)?Tested this in two different mu...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (II)?Tested this in two different mu...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (II)?Tested this in two different mu...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR (I)Effect of previous radical ...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR (I)Effect of previous radical ...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR (I)Effect of previous radical ...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR(II)Statistical model: Vector ...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR(II)Statistical model: Vector ...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR(II)Statistical model: Vector ...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat Are the Main Findings?Previous levels of salience...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat Are the Main Findings?Previous levels of salience...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionConsequences of a flash success: nil-.20.2.4.60 5 10ord...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionConclusionFindings for France support Arzheimer and Ca...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionConclusionFindings for France support Arzheimer and Ca...
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionConclusionFindings for France support Arzheimer and Ca...
ReferencesBibliography IArzheimer, Kai (2009). “Contextual Factors and the ExtremeRight Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002”...
ReferencesBibliography IIJackman, Robert W. and Karin Volpert (1996). “ConditionsFavouring Parties of the Extreme Right in...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Radical Right Dynamics in France

928

Published on

Published in: News & Politics, Spiritual
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
928
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Radical Right Dynamics in France

  1. 1. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionThe Dynamics of Radical Right Party Supportand Mainstream Parties’ Programmatic Changein FranceKai ArzheimerUniversity of Mainz/University of EssexKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (1/11)
  2. 2. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (I)?Radical Right in Western EuropeRoughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,anti-establishment, immigration)Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,moderate levels of formal education)Roughly similar support?Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)
  3. 3. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (I)?Radical Right in Western EuropeRoughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,anti-establishment, immigration)Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,moderate levels of formal education)Roughly similar support?Support for the Radical Right highly volatileAccross time (within countries)Across countriesKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)
  4. 4. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (I)?Radical Right in Western EuropeRoughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,anti-establishment, immigration)Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,moderate levels of formal education)Roughly similar support?Support for the Radical Right highly volatileAccross time (within countries)Across countriesDemand should be roughly stable“Supply Side” (party) and “Contextual” (external) factorsKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)
  5. 5. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political spaceKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
  6. 6. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political spaceArzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestosKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
  7. 7. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political spaceArzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestosPolarisation, variance, salience:Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
  8. 8. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political spaceArzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestosPolarisation, variance, salience:Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”issuesDirection does no matterAgenda setting, priming, legitimacyKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
  9. 9. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA possible solution: contextJackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political spaceArzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestosPolarisation, variance, salience:Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”issuesDirection does no matterAgenda setting, priming, legitimacyWould the radical right suffer if all other parties stoppedtalking about their issues?Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
  10. 10. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (II)?Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondentsnested in surveys/country-years)Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)
  11. 11. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (II)?Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondentsnested in surveys/country-years)But: Downsian parties act strategicallySalience could be a reaction to previous radical right successOur findings spurious?Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)
  12. 12. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat’s the problem (II)?Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondentsnested in surveys/country-years)But: Downsian parties act strategicallySalience could be a reaction to previous radical right successOur findings spurious?Salience a cause or a consequence of radical right success?Chicken – egg problemKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)
  13. 13. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR (I)Effect of previous radical right success very difficult toincorporate into full multi-level modelsMulticollinearityInterpretationStructure of the data setKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)
  14. 14. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR (I)Effect of previous radical right success very difficult toincorporate into full multi-level modelsMulticollinearityInterpretationStructure of the data setIgnore micro-level → macro-political analysisKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)
  15. 15. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR (I)Effect of previous radical right success very difficult toincorporate into full multi-level modelsMulticollinearityInterpretationStructure of the data setIgnore micro-level → macro-political analysisNo cross-level inference:Manifestos and radical right success (as opposed to individualvotes) all system-level phenomenaKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)
  16. 16. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR(II)Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)Multivariate time-series analysisRegress each variable (success/salience) onIts own past valuesThe other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)Immigration and unemployment as controlsKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)
  17. 17. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR(II)Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)Multivariate time-series analysisRegress each variable (success/salience) onIts own past valuesThe other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)Immigration and unemployment as controlsAddresses two questions:1. ‘Granger causality’: significant improvement of predictions?2. Dynamic analysis: short and medium-term impact of randomshocksKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)
  18. 18. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionA different approach: VAR(II)Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)Multivariate time-series analysisRegress each variable (success/salience) onIts own past valuesThe other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)Immigration and unemployment as controlsAddresses two questions:1. ‘Granger causality’: significant improvement of predictions?2. Dynamic analysis: short and medium-term impact of randomshocksSo far, for France only (Eurobarometer 1980–2002)Limitations of data and designKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)
  19. 19. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat Are the Main Findings?Previous levels of salience significantly improve prediction ofradical right successPrevious levels of radical right success do not significantlyimprove predictions for salience – no ‘Granger causality’Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (7/11)
  20. 20. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionWhat Are the Main Findings?Previous levels of salience significantly improve prediction ofradical right successPrevious levels of radical right success do not significantlyimprove predictions for salience – no ‘Granger causality’Not a straightforward test of causality (would requireexperimental design)But circumstantial evidence in support of salience as a cause,not a consequenceKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (7/11)
  21. 21. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionConsequences of a flash success: nil-.20.2.4.60 5 10order1, rexvote, salienzmean68% CI impulse response function (irf)stepGraphs by irfname, impulse variable, and response variableKai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (8/11)
  22. 22. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionConclusionFindings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,but. . .Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)
  23. 23. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionConclusionFindings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,but. . .Very low number of observations within France (n = 35)Requires interpolationMedia content as an additional control/factor?Other countries in Western Europe?Handling of missing surveys (not a big deal in France)Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)
  24. 24. IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and supportConclusionConclusionFindings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,but. . .Very low number of observations within France (n = 35)Requires interpolationMedia content as an additional control/factor?Other countries in Western Europe?Handling of missing surveys (not a big deal in France)Thanks for your time!Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)
  25. 25. ReferencesBibliography IArzheimer, Kai (2009). “Contextual Factors and the ExtremeRight Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002”. In: American Journalof Political Science 53.2, pp. 259–275. url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00369.x.Arzheimer, Kai and Elisabeth Carter (2006). “Political OpportunityStructures and Right-Wing Extremist Party Success”. In: EuropeanJournal of Political Research 45, pp. 419–443.Golder, Matt (2003a). “Electoral Institutions, Unemployment andExtreme Right Parties. A Correction”. In: British Journal ofPolitical Science 33, pp. 525–534.— (2003b). “Explaining Variation in the Success of Extreme RightParties in Western Europe”. In: Comparative Political Studies 36,pp. 432–466.Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (10/11)
  26. 26. ReferencesBibliography IIJackman, Robert W. and Karin Volpert (1996). “ConditionsFavouring Parties of the Extreme Right in Western Europe”. In:British Journal of Political Science 26, pp. 501–521.Knigge, Pia (1998). “The Ecological Correlates of Right-WingExtremism in Western Europe”. In: European Journal of PoliticalResearch 34, pp. 249–279.Lubbers, Marcel, M´erove Gijsberts, and Peer Scheepers (2002).“Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Western Europe”. In: EuropeanJournal of Political Research 41, pp. 345–378.Swank, Duane and Hans-Georg Betz (2003). “Globalization, theWelfare State and Right-Wing Populism in Western Europe”. In:Socio-Economic Review 1, pp. 215–245.Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (11/11)
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×