The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010

TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS: The future just isn’t the same anymore…
I see…
Uhhh…
Kurt Ackermann
Getaway Travel & Tourism Conference 1 September 2011 Ozinsky & Ackermann

SMART PHONES ON(BUT SILENT)
Conference Hashtag:
#GT&TC2011
@kurt_a

Once upon a time back in 2010…

Everyone knows what happens to a World Cup host…

The future
Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)

circa-2012
Future Tourism Economy
(pessimist view)

The future
Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
Aristocratic elite travellers
Tourism industry as anarcho-syndicalist commune
(Lovely muck)
Future Tourism Economy
(optimist view)
Nostalgic
Python-ic

OK, let’s get serious…

“What ARE
the key developments affecting the future of South Africa’s tourism industry?”

First, a brief pause to get defensive…

1400+ industries
No ‘Tourism’
per se

‘Industry’
vs.
‘Economy’
Source: Gauteng Tourism Theme Paper, 2009

Overcapacity!
Undercapacity!
Municipalities
Bad marketing!
0
No Domestic
Focus!
Poor Service Quality!
SMMEs
Private Sector
National Department
SA Tourism
DMOs
0
Global Recession!
0
Airline Fees!

(2010 IMNSHO)

Brand improvement

2010 a technical and football success
“FIFA President, SeppBlatter, has given South Africa 9 out of 10 for organising a successful World Cup.” (12 July 2010)

“I am shocked, shocked…”

“Loss of permanent visitors”
“The sobering reality of mega-events is that nearly all host cities and nations learn a hard lesson: they over-estimate the benefits beforehand and get stuck with under-utilised infrastructure afterwards. They face an extended period of anti-climax…”
October 2007

SINCE 2010

Jozi, Cape Town IRT bus services

High-speed
rail
Photo: urbanjoburg

MPUMALANGA
…the implosion continues

TSHWANE
…getting it together

BUFFALO CITY
?!?

400+
2011 est.
 15 July
218
Rhino poaching

 31 May
173
Source: SAN Parks data via stoprhinopoaching.com

Bookings Down
Over-capacity
‘Oh *(@#!’
Too Expensive
Long Haul is Dead
Tourism
Stats

“A rising tide lifts all boats”
SA Economic Output Doubled
South Africa’s GDP

World GDP Growth

Tourism Core Market GDP Growth

Your Traditional Customer

The Pain is Real.
Photo: flickr.com/allforblue

Key Facts
Overseas and domestic travel down
African land travel volume up
Total spend up
Weak job creation
Government spending up
Innovation required to stay competitive

Key Actions
R35bn government investment in tourism infrastructure by 2020
Resolution of land ownership obstacles by 2012
Minimum work standards by 2012
Domestic tourism focus
5 new African offices
More regional programmes (TFCAs)
Emphasize rural & less visited areas
TBCSA or similar at provincial and city levels
National Convention Bureau
PCO accreditation
National VICs using national database
Grading extensions beyond accommodation
Government procurement from BEE-compliant service providers only

Then
Now

Now
Then

Companies Act 71 of 2008

Electricity Tariff Increase
Electricity price doubles twice in 10 years
90%
77%

BRIC + S
Photo: China News

Lion’s share of GDP growth to 2014
Not driven by consumer spending
Bigger economies than G7 by 2050

National Standard for Responsible Tourism

Cape Town Declaration
RESPONSIBLE TOURISM IN DESTINATIONS
Shaping sustainable spaces into better places
We, representatives of inbound and outbound tour operators, emerging entrepreneurs in the tourism industry, national parks, provincial conservation authorities, all spheres of government, tourism professionals, tourism authorities, NGOs and hotel groups and other tourism stakeholders, from 20 countries in Africa, North and South America, Europe and Asia; having come together in Cape Town to consider the issue of Responsible Tourism in Destinations have agreed this declaration…
2002
2001
1996
High
Expectations
2004
2006
2008
2009
2011
2011
2010
Calabash Tours (PE): Overall Winner 2004
Calabash Tours (PE): Best for Poverty Reduction 2004
Dyer Island Cruises: Best In a Marine Environment 2006
– Highly Commended
Voluntours: Best Volunteering Organisation 2008
- Highly Commended
Stormsriver Adventures: Best for Poverty Reduction 2008
- Highly Commended
Great Plains Conservation: Best for Conservation of Wildlife and Habitats 2009
2011
Cape Town: Best Destination 2009
IOC Sport and Environment Award 2011
KZN: Best Destination 2011 - Longlisted
SANS 1162:2011
National Standard for Responsible Tourism

HEADED OUR WAY

Tourism BEE Charter targets ratchet up in 2013

Carbon-constrained future

UNCERTAINTY:
Risk? or Opportunity?

LONGER TERM FACTORS

City-regions as gateways

Local Travel.
Slow Travel.

“The Good Life”

+2 billion people in next 40 years…

Consider
2001 – 2011…

$73.44/bbl
2011
2.5x increase
in real dollar terms
$29.23/bbl
2001

UNCERTAIN CERTAINTIES

2014 Elections?

WE ARE NOT ALONE IN THIS

Photo: ibntimes

Photo: historymike.blogspot.com

“…The dominion of the West, is ending, not rapidly but steadily. Growth, jobs, expansion, excitement — and, yes, possibility — lie in the great non-Western arc from China through India to South Africa and Brazil. Go South! Go East! That’s the dictum of the age…”
Roger Cohen, International Herald Tribune and New York Times, 13 August 2011

“May you live in interesting times.”

“Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us.”

Fortune favours the bold.
Kurt Ackermann
kurt@imagineer.cc
@kurt_a
Afrika-T.com

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The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010

by kackermann on Aug 18, 2011

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The future isn’t what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010 — Presentation Transcript