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The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010
 

The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010

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An overview of the key developments affecting the future of South Africa's Tourism Industry. Presented by Kurt Ackermann at the Getaway Travel & Tourism Conference on 1 September 2011 in Johannesburg, ...

An overview of the key developments affecting the future of South Africa's Tourism Industry. Presented by Kurt Ackermann at the Getaway Travel & Tourism Conference on 1 September 2011 in Johannesburg, South Africa.

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    The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010 The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010 Presentation Transcript

    • TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS: The future just isn’t the same anymore…
      I see…
      Uhhh…
      Kurt Ackermann
      Getaway Travel & Tourism Conference 1 September 2011 Ozinsky & Ackermann
    • SMART PHONES ON(BUT SILENT)
      Conference Hashtag:
      #GT&TC2011
      @kurt_a
    • Once upon a time back in 2010…
    • Everyone knows what happens to a World Cup host…
    • The future
      Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
    • The future
      Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
    • The future
      Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
    • circa-2012
      Future Tourism Economy
      (pessimist view)
    • The future
      Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)
      Aristocratic elite travellers
      Tourism industry as anarcho-syndicalist commune
      (Lovely muck)
      Future Tourism Economy
      (optimist view)
      Nostalgic
      Python-ic
    • OK, let’s get serious…
    • “What ARE
      the key developments affecting the future of South Africa’s tourism industry?”
    • First, a brief pause to get defensive…
    • 1400+ industries
      No ‘Tourism’
      per se
    • ‘Industry’
      vs.
      ‘Economy’
      Source: Gauteng Tourism Theme Paper, 2009
    • Overcapacity!
      Undercapacity!
      Municipalities
      Bad marketing!
      0
      No Domestic
      Focus!
      Poor Service Quality!
      SMMEs
      Private Sector
      National Department
      SA Tourism
      DMOs
      0
      Global Recession!
      0
      Airline Fees!
    • (2010 IMNSHO)
    • Brand improvement
    • 2010 a technical and football success
      “FIFA President, SeppBlatter, has given South Africa 9 out of 10 for organising a successful World Cup.” (12 July 2010)
    • “I am shocked, shocked…”
    • “Loss of permanent visitors”
      “The sobering reality of mega-events is that nearly all host cities and nations learn a hard lesson: they over-estimate the benefits beforehand and get stuck with under-utilised infrastructure afterwards. They face an extended period of anti-climax…”
      October 2007
    • SINCE 2010
    • Jozi, Cape Town IRT bus services
    • High-speed
      rail
      Photo: urbanjoburg
    • MPUMALANGA
      …the implosion continues

      TSHWANE
      …getting it together

      BUFFALO CITY
      ?!?
    • 400+
      2011 est.
       15 July
      218
      Rhino poaching

       31 May
      173
      Source: SAN Parks data via stoprhinopoaching.com
    • TODAY
    • Bookings Down
      Over-capacity
      ‘Oh *(@#!’
      Too Expensive
      Long Haul is Dead
      Tourism
      Stats
    • “A rising tide lifts all boats”
      SA Economic Output Doubled
      South Africa’s GDP
    • World GDP Growth
    • Tourism Core Market GDP Growth
    • Your Traditional Customer
    • The Pain is Real.
      Photo: flickr.com/allforblue
    • Key Facts
      • Overseas and domestic travel down
      • African land travel volume up
      • Total spend up
      • Weak job creation
      • Government spending up
      • Innovation required to stay competitive
    • Key Actions
      • R35bn government investment in tourism infrastructure by 2020
      • Resolution of land ownership obstacles by 2012
      • Minimum work standards by 2012
      • Domestic tourism focus
      • 5 new African offices
      • More regional programmes (TFCAs)
      • Emphasize rural & less visited areas
      • TBCSA or similar at provincial and city levels
      • National Convention Bureau
      • PCO accreditation
      • National VICs using national database
      • Grading extensions beyond accommodation
      • Government procurement from BEE-compliant service providers only
    • Then
      Now
    • Now
      Then
    • Companies Act 71 of 2008
    • Electricity Tariff Increase
      Electricity price doubles twice in 10 years
      90%
      77%
    • BRIC + S
      Photo: China News
    • Lion’s share of GDP growth to 2014
      Not driven by consumer spending
      Bigger economies than G7 by 2050
    • National Standard for Responsible Tourism
    • Cape Town Declaration
      RESPONSIBLE TOURISM IN DESTINATIONS
      Shaping sustainable spaces into better places
      We, representatives of inbound and outbound tour operators, emerging entrepreneurs in the tourism industry, national parks, provincial conservation authorities, all spheres of government, tourism professionals, tourism authorities, NGOs and hotel groups and other tourism stakeholders, from 20 countries in Africa, North and South America, Europe and Asia; having come together in Cape Town to consider the issue of Responsible Tourism in Destinations have agreed this declaration…
      2002
      2001
      1996
      High
      Expectations
      2004
      2006
      2008
      2009
      2011
      2011
      2010
      Calabash Tours (PE): Overall Winner 2004
      Calabash Tours (PE): Best for Poverty Reduction 2004
      Dyer Island Cruises: Best In a Marine Environment 2006
      – Highly Commended
      Voluntours: Best Volunteering Organisation 2008
      - Highly Commended
      Stormsriver Adventures: Best for Poverty Reduction 2008
      - Highly Commended
      Great Plains Conservation: Best for Conservation of Wildlife and Habitats 2009
      2011
      Cape Town: Best Destination 2009
      IOC Sport and Environment Award 2011
      KZN: Best Destination 2011 - Longlisted
      SANS 1162:2011
      National Standard for Responsible Tourism
    • HEADED OUR WAY
    • Tourism BEE Charter targets ratchet up in 2013
    • Carbon-constrained future
    • ?
    • UNCERTAINTY:
      Risk? or Opportunity?
    • LONGER TERM FACTORS
    • City-regions as gateways
    • Local Travel.
      Slow Travel.
    • LOHAS
    • “The Good Life”
    • OMG
    • +2 billion people in next 40 years…
    • Consider
      2001 – 2011…
    • $73.44/bbl
      2011
      2.5x increase
      in real dollar terms
      $29.23/bbl
      2001
    • 2001
    • UNCERTAIN CERTAINTIES
    • 2014 Elections?
    • WE ARE NOT ALONE IN THIS
    • Photo: ibntimes
    • Photo: historymike.blogspot.com
    • “…The dominion of the West, is ending, not rapidly but steadily. Growth, jobs, expansion, excitement — and, yes, possibility — lie in the great non-Western arc from China through India to South Africa and Brazil. Go South! Go East! That’s the dictum of the age…”
      Roger Cohen, International Herald Tribune and New York Times, 13 August 2011
    • “May you live in interesting times.”
    • “Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us.”
    • Fortune favours the bold.
      Kurt Ackermann
      kurt@imagineer.cc
      @kurt_a
      Afrika-T.com