SoLoMo Gaming in 3G, LTE, Cloud, and HTML5 Ecosystem: Market Analysis & Forecast 2012 - 2017
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SoLoMo Gaming in 3G, LTE, Cloud, and HTML5 Ecosystem: Market Analysis & Forecast 2012 - 2017

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    SoLoMo Gaming in 3G, LTE, Cloud, and HTML5 Ecosystem: Market Analysis & Forecast 2012 - 2017 SoLoMo Gaming in 3G, LTE, Cloud, and HTML5 Ecosystem: Market Analysis & Forecast 2012 - 2017 Document Transcript

    • SoLoMo Gaming in 3G, LTE, Cloud, and HTML5Ecosystem: Market Analysis & Forecast 2012 - 2017Published: Nov 2012 Pages: 67Single User: $995.00 Company Wide: $2,995.00 Team License: $1,865.00_________________________________________________________________________ Contact: kabir@mindcommerce.comThe convergence of Social Local and Mobile (SoLoMo) is a powerful force with bigimplications for applications of all types and gaming is no exception. SoLoMo Gamingwill cause no less than a revitalization of the gaming ecosystem resulting in disruptionas new market players assume market share for existing providers. The growth of LTE,smartphone and tablet devices, social media/networking, mobile payment, HTML5technology, cloud-based gaming, and brands deeper engagement represent some keyfactors that are pushing this wave to make the 2013 - 2015 period explosive for SoLoMogaming.This report is must reading for anyone with a vested interest in the mobile gamingindustry or considering a market entry strategy. This research is also critical for anycompany in the social and/or location-based mobile application space as SoLoMogaming is poised to become a significant source of revenue throughout the value chainfor players who identify, understand, and capitalize upon these trends.Companies in Report:PopCap, GREE, Electronic Arts (EA), Playdom, Massive Damage inc., Grey Area Ltd.,Yelp, DeNA, inOnRoad, Blippar, int13.net, Booyah, Zynga, Nexon, FirmVille, CityVille,Alibaba, Ubitus inc., OnLive, NHN Japan, NTT Docomo, FriendSter, AT&T, Orange,Vodafone, KDDI, Sony, Locaid, PaymentOne, Simplelifeform.com, Live Gamer, BlizzardEntertainment, America Online, Gaia, WeeWorld, CloudMade, Gaikai, Burst.ly, App.net,MoPub, W3i, Rovio, PayPal, Gameloft, France Telecom, Bouygues Telecom, SFR,NRJ, mPass, MasterCard, Everything Everywhere, Deutsche Telekom, Orange,Barclay, Giesecke, Devrient, McDonalds, Oracle, Nike, Starbucks, Nokia, H&M, Loopt,Google, Yahoo, Bing, Mixi, Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, Foursquare, Apple, QQTarget Audience:
    • • Mobile network operators • Virtual goods solution providers • Cloud gaming platform providers • Mobile HTML5 solution providers • Mobile Application store providers • Mobile gaming investment companies • Mobile social and location game platform developers • Mobile gaming marketing and consultancy companies • Mobile game development and publishing companies • Mobile Ad network, payment solutions and content providersKey Findings: • SoLoMo gaming market value (core + market shift) is estimated to reach $6.15 billion USD by 2017 • SoLoMo gaming is going to replace certain existing ecosystem market players with new entrants • SoLoMo gamer-base including Core & Shifted gamer is estimated to increase 12 times by 2017 • Virtual Goods will be the key for revenue monetization holding more than 50% market share • 35+ age bracket is the high payer in SoLoMo gaming platformTable of Contents:1.0 SOLOMO MARKET OVERVIEW AND GAMING EVOLUTION 71.1 CONCEPT OF SOLOMO & AUGMENTED UTILITY 71.2 BROWSER BASED TO APP BASED TREND AND SOLOMO EVOLUTION 71.3 MERGED SOCIAL, LOCAL SEARCH & MOBILE: WHAT INDICATES MARKET DATA 71.4 MOBILE GAMING ENTERED SOCIAL PLATFORM INCLUDING DATA INDICATION 81.5 MOBILE GAMING MEETS 3G, LTE, HTML5 ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING DATAINDICATION 81.6 EMERGENCE OF LOCATIVE GAMING ON SOCIAL & MOBILE PLATFORM FORDEEPER ENGAGEMENT: THE NEXT GEN GAMING 92.0 LOCATIVE GAME DYNAMICS IN SOLOMO PARADIGM 112.1 WHAT IS LOCATION GAME 11
    • 2.2 IDEAL FEATURES OF LOCATIVE GAMING 122.3 LOCATIVE GAME DYNAMICS / PRINCIPLES TO FOLLOW 132.4 BALANCING BUSINESS FOCUS WITH LOCATIVE GAMING 143.0 MARKET GROWTH DRIVER ANALYSIS OF SOLOMO GAMING 163.1 LOCATION CENTRIC MULTIPLAYER MOBILE SOCIAL & CASUAL GAMING TREND 163.2 COMBINING GAMERS PSYCHOLOGICAL FLOW WITH LOCAL COMMUNITYDRIVEN DEEPER BRAND ENGAGEMENT METRICS 173.3 AUGMENTED UTILITY BEHAVIOR OF GAMER USING MOBILE AUGMENTEDREALITY 193.4 IN-GAME TRANSACTION TREND AND VIRTUAL GOODS PLACEMENT BASED INREAL TIME LOCATION 213.5 VIRTUAL GOODS EXPORT IN GAMING AND EXCHANGE TREND AMONGCOMMUNITY 223.6 HTML5 & CLOUD BENEFIT IN GAMING 234.0 SOLOMO GAME DEVELOPMENT TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM TREND 264.1 ANDROID VS. IOS GAMING MARKET & PROFIT SHARE TREND 264.2 FACEBOOK’S MOBILE-PLUS-OPEN-GRAPH COMBINATION IN GAMING VS.UNIFIED GOOGLE GAMES PUBLISHING PLATFORM 274.3 EMERGING CLOUD AND HTML5 BROWSER BASED PUBLISHING 285.0 ECO-SYSTEM AND VALUE CHAIN IN SOLOMO GAMING ENVIRONMENT 295.1 ECO-SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND MAIN ACTIVITIES 295.2 VALUE CHAIN PARTNERSHIP MODELING 305.3 ROLE OF NEW ENTRANTS IN ECO-SYSTEM / VALUE CHAIN 305.3.1 TECHNICAL & LEGAL ROLE OF LOCATION TECHNOLOGY PROVIDER /PUBLISHER 305.3.2 VIRTUAL GOODS PROVIDER WILL PLAY CRITICAL ROLE ON GAME SUCCESS 315.3.3 MICRO TRANSACTION SOLUTION PROVIDER TO PROVIDE MONETIZEDPLATFORM FOR USER & GAME DEVELOPER 315.3.4 CLOUD GAME PLATFORM PUBLISHER TO ENSURE LAAS STANDARD 325.4 ECONOMIC DRIVER OF SOLOMO GAMING VALUE CHAIN 335.5 APPSTORE, SNS PORTAL & CLOUD PUBLISHING FRAMEWORK 33
    • 6.0 SOLOMO GAME DISTRIBUTION TREND 346.1 OTI VS. OTA DISTRIBUTION: WHERE IS SOLOMO GAME 346.2 OTI VS. OTA FRAGMENTATION AND APPSTORE, SNS PORTAL, HTML5 & CLOUDPLATFORM 346.3 GOOGLE PLAY VS. APPLE STORE: HOW APPLE WILL BE LOSING MONEY FROMSOLOMO GAME? 356.4 MITIGATING FRAGMENTED DISTRIBUTION CHALLENGE OF BILLING, COST,MARKETING AND CROSS-CHANNEL PUBLISHING 366.5 CONSUMER RESPONSE AND FUTURE OF OTI VS. OTA DISTRIBUTION 367.0 SOLOMO GAME MONETIZATION METRICS 387.1 GAMER MONETIZATION METRICS: HOW TO CONNECT? 387.2 SAMPLE GAMER CONVERSION FUNNEL 397.3 GAME LIFE CYCLE MODEL: WHAT TO MANAGE? 397.4 KPI MANAGING FRAMEWORK OF GAME LIFE CYCLE 407.5 SOLOMO GAME ANALYTICS APPROACH: HOW TO MANAGE SEQUENTIALSTEPS? 407.6 VIRAL VS. RETENTION: WHAT TO FOCUS? 407.7 CHECKLIST FOR RETENTION METRICS MANAGEMENT 417.8 CHECKLIST FOR VIRALITY METRICS MANAGEMENT 417.9 CHECKLIST FOR ACQUISITION METRICS MANAGEMENT 427.10 CHECKLIST FOR BUSINESS MONETIZATION METRICS 437.11 SAMPLE CUSTOM METRICS TO DERIVE ACTIONABLE INSIGHTS FOR BETTERMONETIZATION 437.12 BRAND MONETIZATION METRICS IN SOLOMO GAME: WHAT A BRAND MANAGERNEED TO FOCUS? 438.0 SOLOMO GAMING BUSINESS & PRICING MODEL ANALYSIS 468.1 STRATEGY CONSIDERATION TO DESIGN RIGHT BUSINESS MODEL 468.2 PRICING MODEL: FACTORS INFLUENCE DECISION 478.3 BUSINESS & PRICING MODEL FOR SOLOMO GAMING BUSINESS 488.4 REVENUE & COST ITEMS FOR ECO-SYSTEM MARKET PLAYER 498.5 SOLOMO GAME BALANCING & MONETIZATION IN VIRTUAL GOODS DRIVENMICRO TRANSACTION & FREE-TO-PLAY MODEL 50
    • 8.6 MARKET CHALLENGES & SOLUTIONS IN FREE-TO-PLAY & VIRTUAL GOODSDRIVEN MICRO TRANSACTION MODEL 518.7 UG (USER GENERATED), CLUB BASED, AND RESEARCH & GAMIFICATIONCENTRIC BUSINESS MODEL: FEW FRESH POTENTIAL CONCEPT 529.0 SOLOMO GAMING MARKET PROJECTION 2012 - 2017 549.1 WORLDWIDE SOLOMO GAMING MARKET VALUE (CORE + SHIFTED MARKET)AND CAGR PROJECTION 2012-2017 549.1.1 MARKET VALUE BREAKDOWN INTO CORE VS. SHIFTED MARKET PERCENTAGEFROM MOBILE SOCIAL GAMING 2012 – 2017 549.2 TOP COUNTRIES IN SOLOMO GAMING 569.3 REVENUE SHARE % ACROSS SOLOMO GAMING VALUE CHAIN PARTNERS 569.4 REVENUE GENERATING SOURCES (%) FROM ECO-SYSTEM MARKET PLAYER 579.5 NEW ENTRANT VS. EXISTING PLAYER IN ECO-SYSTEM / VALUE CHAIN: WHO ISLOSING / GAINING MONEY? 579.6 AD FUNDED VS. MICRO TRANSACTION BUSINESS MODEL WISE REVENUETREND COMPARISON 2012-2017 589.7 TABLET VS. SMARTPHONE VS. FEATURED PHONE REVENUE PERCENT (%)TREND 2012 – 2017 589.8 SOLOMO GAMING ARPU TREND 2012 – 2017 599.9 AVERAGE VIRTUAL GOODS PRICING TREND IN SOLOMO GAME 609.10 SOLOMO GAMERS AVERAGE SPENDING PATTERN VIRTUAL GOODS CATEGORY 609.11 FREE-TO-PLAY VS. PAID VS. OTHERS GAME TREND IN SOLOMO PLATFORM2012-2017 609.12 AD FUNDED VS. MICRO TRANSACTION ON VIRTUAL GOODS VS. HYBRID GAMEMARKET SHARE 2012-2017 619.13 HTML5 & CLOUD TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION TREND IN SOLOMO GAMINGPLATFORM 2012 – 2017 629.14 GPS TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION TREND IN MOBILE DEVICE 2012 - 2017 629.15 SOLOMO GAMERS PROJECTION (CORE + MARKET SHIFT) 2012 - 2017 629.15.1 MOBILE SOCIAL GAMERS SHIFTING TREND TO SOLOMO GAMERS 2012 – 2017 639.16 CASUAL VS. REGULAR GAMING PERCENT IN SOLOMO PLATFORM 2012-2017 64
    • 9.17 SOLOMO GAMERS BUYING HABIT OF VIRTUAL GOODS BASED ONDEMOGRAPHY 6510.0 WHAT NEXT IN SOLOMO GAMING EVOLUTION? 6610.1 NFC PAYMENT INTEGRATION 6610.2 AUTO LIFE LOGGING PLATFORM 6610.3 DISTRIBUTED MASS SOCIAL EXPERIENCE 67List of Figures:Figure 1: Market data of Social Networking, Mobile Facebook population, Mobile LBS user andsmartphone LBS user 8Figure 2: Market Data of 3G, LTE & HTML5 user & aopdtion and mobile data traffic 9Figure 3: iPhone Screenshot of “Please Stay Calm-Zombie Apocalypse”: the best SoLoMogame (copyright: Massive Damange, Inc.) 10Figure 4: iPhone screenshot of Shadow Cities: a true SoLoMo Game (copyright: Grey Area Ltd.) 14Figure 5: MMG & Mobile Social Gaming Market Data 16Figure 6: Top 4 SoLoMo Game with Player Number 17Figure 7: Psychological game-play pattern of SoLoMo Gamer 17Figure 8: Sample trail map of SoLoMo gamer: How do they chase 18Figure 9: Market data related to Brand Virality & Engagement via Mobile Social Gaming 19Figure 10: Top 7 Augmented Reality SoLoMo Game 20Figure 11: ARDefender SoLoMo Game on Android (copyright: int13.net) 21Figure 12: In-game virtual goods market related data 21Figure 13: Virtual goods placement in MyTown- a SoLoMo Game, tracking real time location(copyright: Booyah) 22Figure 14: Mobile cloud gaming network diagram: a graphical presentation (copyright: Stanford) 24Figure 15: G-Cloud: World’s 1st Mobile Cloud LTE Gaming on Docomo Tablet (copyright:Docomo) 25Figure 16: m.friendster.com - HTML5 Game Publisher for iPhone, iPad, Android i.e. BuggyFighter, Cool Pool etc. (Copyright: FriendSter) 25Figure 17: iOS vs. Android Gaming Market Share Related Data 27Figure 18: Identified tasks behavior in SoLoMo gaming eco-system structure 29
    • Figure 19: SoLoMo Gaming Market Player in Value Chain Model 30Figure 20: Revenue Dimension in SoLoMo Gaming Value Chain 33Figure 21: SoLoMo Game Publishing Framework: Appstore vs. SNS/Location Portal vs. CloudPlatform 33Figure 22: SoLoMo Game in OTI vs. OTA Distribution Channel 34Figure 23: Competitive comparison between iOS vs. Android Appstore Model 35Figure 24: Sequential steps to monetize SoLoMo Gamer 38Figure 25: Sample conversion funnel to analyze SoLoMo gamer 39Figure 26: Life Cycle model of SoLoMo game 39Figure 27: KPI Framework to manage SoLoMo game life cycle 40Figure 28: Steps to follow to develop Analytics Approach in SoLoMo Game 40Figure 29: Sample Viral vs. Retention Metrics Graph: What to Focus? 41Figure 30: Checklist to manage retention metrics 41Figure 31: Checklist to get advantage from Virality Metrics 42Figure 32: How to manage acquisition metrics 42Figure 33: Checklist for business monetization metrics 43Figure 34: Sample of Custom metrics to derive actionable insights 43Figure 35: Checklist to monetize Brand in a SoLoMo game 45Figure 36: Sample monitoring metrics determining Brand effectiveness in SoLoMo game(copyright: Oracle) 45Figure 37: Strategy to include designing right Business Model for SoLoMo Game 47Figure 38: Mobile Social Gaming APR, average download, charitable stuff related market data 48Figure 39: Distribution & Pricing Model for SoLoMo Game 48Figure 40: Key Revenue & Cost Items for SoLoMo eco-system player 50Figure 41: A Need Bragging approach creation for SoLoMo game monetization in Free-to-play &in-game transaction model 50Figure 42: Balancing SoLoMo gamer in a need bragging approach 51Figure 43: Market challenges & Solutions in micro transaction model 51Figure 44: SoLoMo Gaming Market Value (core + market shift) 2012-201754
    • Figure 45: Core vs. Shifted Market Percent among Total SoLoMo Gaming Market Value 2012-2017 55Figure 46: % of Mobile Social Gaming Market will be shifted to Core SoLoMo Gaming Platform 55Figure 47: Top 5 countries SoLoMo gaming market share 56Figure 48: Revenue Share % among SoLoMo Gaming value chain partners 56Figure 49: Revenue sources % from SoLoMo gaming Eco-System Player 57Figure 50: Comparison of Money Gaining & Loosing of Existing vs. New Market Player inSoLoMo Gaming Environment 58Figure 51: Ad Funded vs. Micro Transaction Revenue under SoLoMo gaming platform 2012-2017 58Figure 52: SoLoMo Gaming revenue contribution % Tablet vs. Smartphone vs. Featured Phone2012-2017 59Figure 53: SoLoMo Gaming ARPU 2012-2017 59Figure 54: % of SoLoMo games average Virtual Goods Pricing Trend 60Figure 55: SoLoMo Gamers expenditure over Consumable with real life cash vs. Durable vs.Personalization Virtual Goods category 60Figure 56: Free-to-Play vs. Paid vs. Others Game in SoLoMo Platform 2012-2017 61Figure 57: Ad Funded vs. Micro Transaction vs. Hybrid Game market share in SoLoMo Platform2012-2017 61Figure 58: HTML5 & Cloud Technology Adoption Trend in SoLoMo Game 2012 - 2017 62Figure 59: GPS technology Adoption Trend in mobile devices 2012 - 201762Figure 60: Worldwide SoLoMo Gamer Projection 2012-2017 63Figure 61: Core vs. Shifted Gamer percentage among total SoLoMo Gamer 2012-2017 63Figure 62: % of Mobile Social gamer will be shifted to SoLoMo gamer 2012-2017 64Figure 63: Casual vs. Regular Gaming in SoLoMo Platform 2012-2017 64Figure 64: % of SoLoMo Gamer bought virtual goods on different age bracket 65