According to Mary Meeker who wrote the 2010 Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report, in less than five years, more people will access the Internet on mobile devices than on desktops. Nielsen forecasts the number of smartphones to exceed the number of feature phones during the 4rd quarter of 2011. Gartner predicts smartphones will be the most common primary Internet access device by 2015. The installed base of smartphones and browser-equipped phones will actually exceed the PC installed base as early as 2012. Mobile Internet devices will continue to grow rapidly to meet the need of mobile users. Morgan Stanley expects those types of devices to total at least 10 billion units by 2020 and those devices will be more than just cell phones. J.P. Morgan expects the mobile messaging market to grow by over 200% from 2009 through 2012.
Our next generation of freshmen are heavy texters with over half of them sending 1,500 texts per month and one-third of them sending 3,000 texts per month. 88% of teen cell phone users are text messagers which is up significantly from 2006. There has been a balance shift towards mobile by developers. At Google, mobile is now being developed for first and then ported back to the desktop rather than the traditional method of development of desktop first, mobile last. Eric Schmidt mentioned this in his keynote speech at the 2010 Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain earlier this year. According to data from the Communications & Telecommunications Industry Association and consultants Chetan Sharma, U.S. data traffic exceeded voice traffic on mobile phones for the first time ever and is rising sharply. Ericsson also reiterated this at the CTIA Wireless 2010 convention earlier this year based on measurements from their live networks covering the world.
According to Morgan Stanley, the number of mobile Internet users are expected to surpass desktop Internet users by 2014. Gartner predicts this will happen in 2012 with the mobile device becoming the primary Internet access device by 2015.
According to Nielsen, the number of smartphones will exceed the number of features phones in the 3rd quarter of 2011. From the recent ImproveNDcampus survey, it was noted 24% of students have smartphones and the balance have feature or other types of phones.
The take away from this slide is the huge increase in the number of mobile Internet capable devices that will be hitting the market over the next ten years. These devices will be more than just cell phones, they will include entertainment devices, reading devices, gaming devices, devices integrated into our home appliances (mention Whirlpool R&D to do this), and devices integrated into our vehicles (already happening).
Our focus for mobile technologies will be in these three areas: 1) Mobile Internet access through our mobile website m.nd.edu, 2) Extend our current mobile site with SMS capabilities, and 3) Develop ND-specific apps for key devices and integrate mobile into our enterprise systems. We have chosen these three areas due to their tight connection with the industry trends of: 1) Access of the Internet via mobile devices, 2) Heavy text message usage by our current students and future students, and 3) Large number of mobile Internet devices that will be released over the next ten years and those that dominant the U.S. market now such as iPhone, Blackberry, and Android.
There is one official mobile site for Notre Dame and that is m.nd.edu. The basics have been implemented for the site including some things that are useful for students such as “Find an Open Lab”. We would like to enhance the content that is available for our students in 2010. That would involve working with students to determine what they want to see on the mobile site and begin developing in partnershp with the students a site more in tune to them. The mobile site is out of beta now and officially released to the public. The next slide will show some of the stats for our mobile site since it’s release in January.
The beta of the site was released in September and officially rolled out in January. In terms of reach, we have reached 3,345 unique visitors during this period with 15% (490) returning between 9 – 14 times during this period for repeat usage. One thing that has not been done is the communication/marketing of this site. Most students I talk to do not even know we have a mobile site. They are excited to see we have one once I show it to them. I believe this needs to be a focus for fall semester.
Texting will continue to be a big part of our students’ methods of communication. The extension of the mobile site with SMS capabilities will meet that sweet spot for the students that is now missing. Enabling 80% of the mobile site will easily suffice the students needs. We will prioritize those mobile site features the students would use more frequently and keep them involved in driving the key new features of the mobile site and the SMS capable mobile site.
We want our students, faculty, staff, alumni, and campus visitors to have access to ND-specific content and data that works well on any device they use. One way to make their experience even better on their mobile device is to develop specifically for that device. We need to develop apps for these key devices that gives them the fastest and very best experience on their device. Also, we need to focus on building this mobile integration into our key enterprise platform apps as well. We need to get in front of our enterprise platform suppliers and work with them directly to help create an experience that we know will be best for our users.
Enterprisemobile services options – Scott to talk on.
The trends are pretty obvious. Mobile devices will be the dominant Internet access method within five years. We need to step up our investment in mobile infrastructure to keep pace with this trend. Our investment has been pretty minimal up to this point, it is time to dive in! Some ways we can do that in the new fiscal year 2010/11 is to enhance our mobile site with more student-centric content by letting the students drive the features they want (and even get them involved in writing them), better market our mobile and SMS sites to our students, faculty, staff, alumni, and visitors, develop applications for key mobile devices that are more integrated with the device’s operating system, and build and pilot an API-like Sungard service.
Most of these mobile priorities for the next fiscal year can be absorbed as part of normal MOB for ES & AT, but if we were to extend the mobile site with SMS capabilities, then there would be a one-time cost of $2,500, .25 FTE dedicated to the project (conservative estimates for OIT resources from security, business office, ES, AT, and others), and then ongoing costs of $24,000 per year. Also, to better market the mobile and SMS sites, we would need to partner with student government. I’m estimating $3,000 for ads and other creative ways of promoting the sites. So, the total impact to the 2010/11 fiscal year would be $29,500 + .25 FTE.
Here are the references for the trend pages at the front of the presentation.
Mobile Technologies OIT Briefing April 23, 2010
Trends More people will access the Internet on mobile devices than on desktops by 2014. (Morgan Stanley 2010) Smartphones will exceed feature phones as the most used cell phone during the 3rd quarter of 2011. (Nielsen 2010) Smartphones will be the most common primary Internet access device by 2015 (exceed PCs 2012). (Gartner 2010) Mobile internet devices to total at least 10 billion units by 2020. (Morgan Stanley 2009) Text messaging to grow by over 200% from 2009 through 2012. (J.P. Morgan 2010) 2
Trends 50% of teens send 50 or more text messages a day and 33% send more than 100 texts a day. (Pew Research Center 2010) 88% of teen cell phone users are text-messagers that is a sharp rise from the 51% of teens who were texters in 2006. (Pew Research Center 2010) Google engineers now work on mobile first, then have their products ported back to the desktop. (Mobile World Congress 2010) In 2009 U.S. data traffic exceeded voice traffic on mobile phones. (Chetan Sharma 2010) 3
Mobile Site One site only: m.nd.edu Officially released in January Basics finished for site FY 2010/11: Enhance M-site to be more student friendly FY 2010/11: Better market M-site to students Future: Develop M-site as portal to other mobile sites M-site 8
SMS FY 2010/11: Extend M-site into an elemental form that can be easily used by texters FY 2010/11: Enable 80% of M-site for text access Future: Allow opt-in for status updates and messages from M-site portal based on user’s selections SMS 10
Summary Trends all forecast “mobile first” emphasis. So far, we have tipped our toe in the water to see how mobile is, but we really need to dive in and get totally wet. In FY 2010/11 we propose these priorities: Enhance M-site to be more student friendly Extend M-site with SMS capabilities Better market M-site and SMS M-site to students Develop ND-specific apps for key devices Build and pilot API-like services for enterprise systems 13
FY 2010/11 Impact of Mobile Priorities Impact = $29,500 + .25 FTE 1. Enhance M-site to be more student friendly No impact - part of normal ES & AT MOB 2. Extend M-site with SMS capabilities Dedicated vanity short code option: $26,500 + .25 FTE 3. Better market M-site and SMS M-site to students Partner with Student Government/OIT/OPAC: $3,000 4. Develop ND-specific apps for key devices No impact - part of normal AT MOB/summer students 5. Build and pilot API-like services for enterprise systems No impact - utilize summer student and normal ES MOB 14
References PewInternet.org, “Teens and Mobile Phones,” Pew Internet Research Center, April 20, 2010 (http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2010/Teens-and-Mobile-Phones.aspx) MorganStanley.com, “The Mobile Internet Report,” Morgan Stanley, December 15, 2009 (http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html) “Nothing But Net”, J.P. Morgan 2010 Internet Investment Guide, 2010 (http://www.gazhoo.com/doc/201002191343085890/Nothing+But+Net+-+JP+Morgan+2010+Internet+Investment+Guide) “The Nielsen Group, “Under Aged Texting Usage and Actual Cost,” January 27, 2010 (http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/under-aged-texting-usage-and-actual-cost) “Mobile Industry Update: Barcelona 2010,” Keynote Benchmark, January 2010 (http://www.keynote.com/benchmark/mobile_wireless/article_industry_focus_mobile_world_congress.shtml) “Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond,” Summary Report, Gartner, Inc., January 13, 2010 (http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413) “Mobile Data Traffic Surpasses Voice,” Ericsson Press Release, March 25, 2010 (http://www.ericsson.com/thecompany/press/releases/2010/03/1396928) “U.S. Wireless Data Market Update – Q4 2009 and 2009,” by Chetan Sharma, February 2, 2010 (http://chetansharma.com/globalmarketupdate2009.htm) ImproveND Student Survey, University of Notre Dame, Institutional Research, January 2010 15