JWT AnxietyIndex: A Closer Look at the US Midterm Elections (October 2010)
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JWT AnxietyIndex: A Closer Look at the US Midterm Elections (October 2010)

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JWT examined attitudes and behaviors in the run-up to the 2010 U.S. midterm elections, looking for variations by political affiliation. We conducted a quantitative survey using JWT SONAR, JWT’s ...

JWT examined attitudes and behaviors in the run-up to the 2010 U.S. midterm elections, looking for variations by political affiliation. We conducted a quantitative survey using JWT SONAR, JWT’s proprietary online tool. Data was collected between Oct. 18-25, 2010. 519 Americans aged 18 and older were surveyed, with the data weighted by age, gender and income.

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JWT AnxietyIndex: A Closer Look at the US Midterm Elections (October 2010) JWT AnxietyIndex: A Closer Look at the US Midterm Elections (October 2010) Presentation Transcript

  • ANXIETYINDEX A CLOSER LOOK AT THEU.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS OCTOBER 2010
  • AGENDA Background and methodology ........................................................................3 What’s making people anxious today? ........................................................4 The election’s tone and urgency ..................................................................182
  • BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY For the latest installment of AnxietyIndex, JWT examined attitudes and behaviors in the run-up to the midterm elections, looking for variations by political affiliation. Quantitative survey conducted by JWT SONARTM, JWT’s proprietary online tool. Data collected between Oct. 18-25, 2010. 519 Americans aged 18+ Data are weighted by age, gender and income.3
  • WHAT’S MAKING AMERICANS ANXIOUS TODAY?4
  • While anxiety remains high, an overall downward trend continues. Anxiety is returning to pre-recession levels ... 90 Food & fuel prices 80 82 82 begin to spike • • • • 78 79 76 72 76 79 • • • • • 70 80 70 70 71 70 • • • • Barack Obama wins 60 54 the presidency % Nervous/ Immediate run-up to the war in Iraq 50 • Anxious 40 • % Not Nervous/ 46 Anxious • • • • • • 30 20 30 30 29 • • • • 28 24 30 • • 21 • 22 21 24 20 18 18 10 0 02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 03/09 09/09 05/10 10/10 (Pre- (Post- Election) Election) month/year Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life, how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?5
  • ... though a lingering group of Americans remain very anxious. 30 26 Food & fuel prices begin to spike 25 25 25 • • • 24 • 22 21 22 • • 20 • 20 • 17 19 • Immediate run-up 15 • 16 • to the war in Iraq Barack Obama wins • 15 the presidency 13 11 • 10 • 5 % Very Nervous/ Anxious 0 02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 03/09 09/09 05/10 10/10 (Pre- (Post- Election) Election) month/year Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life, how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?6
  • ANXIETYINDEX MAP SAFETY/SECURITY ECONOMIC Political Leadership Threat of State of Terrorism FURTHER Economy FURTHER FROM FROM “HOME” “HOME” Potential Military Cost of Hostilities Health Care CLOSER CLOSER TO TO Current Cost of “HOME” Living “HOME” Military Hostilities Crime Job Security SAFETY/SECURITY ECONOMIC7
  • Concern about the economy has decreased significantly, though credit isn’t given to the current administration. Political Leadership 600 Threat of State of 500 Terrorism Economy 400 300 383 198 200 Potential 158 Military 100 Cost of Hostilities Health Care 170 0 394 301 195 90 130 Current Cost of Military Living Hostilities Crime Job Security September 2009 October 2010 AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not8
  • Anxiety around the economy is down dramatically from the heights of two years ago. State of the Economy Food & fuel prices 1011 1011 • • begin to spike 900 • 900 • 733 Immediate run-up • 669 614 733 • to the war in Iraq Barack Obama wins the presidency • • 376 270 270 • • • 223 • • % Very Nervous/ 213 Anxious 02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 09/09 05/10 10/10 (Pre- (Post- Election) Election) month/year AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life, how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?9
  • Anxiety around the cost of living has similarly dropped dramatically from two years ago. Cost of Living 733 •• Food & fuel prices 669 begin to spike 525 525 376 • • 488 456 335 • • 376 • 355 • 194 213 • • 300 • • Barack Obama wins the presidency • % Very Immediate run-up Nervous/ to the war in Iraq Anxious 02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 09/09 05/10 10/10 (Pre- (Post- Election) Election) month/year AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life, how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?10
  • Worries are rising over the price of staple goods (while substantially off the peak of two years ago). The War in Iraq 400 Impact of Global Warming The War in Afghanistan Natural Disasters The Housing Market 200 106 129 101 156 Safety of the Food Supply 98 Gasoline Prices 263 146 0 157 Quality of Products 276 Imported from China Food Prices 265 129 160 The Government’s 331 202 Unemployment Budget Deficit Rates The State of the National Bank Failures Infrastructure The Stock Market September 2009 October 2010 AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not11
  • And the outlook on most drivers remains pessimistic. WORSE BETTER The current political leadership in your country -10 -15 You and your family’s current job security -2 2 The housing market October 2010 -12 8 September 2009 -4 The stock market 6 Bank failures -7 -5 More optimistic The state of the economy -17 -4 The threat of terrorism More pessimistic -20 -17 The rate of crime in your community -14 -13 Military hostilities around the world -21 -23 Potential military hostilities around the world -21 -24 Unemployment rates -17 -11 The cost of health care in your country -37 -36 The cost of living in your country -36 -33 Gasoline prices -41 -42 Food prices -40 -37 Your government’s budget deficit -36 -47 % who expect it will get “better” minus % who expect it will get “worse” in the next six months And over the next six months, do you expect that each of the following will get better, stay the same or get worse?12
  • People continue to report moderate levels of personal impact from the recession ... Intensity of Personal Impact from the Recession October 2010 September 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Haven’t Have impacted impacted me at all me a great deal No Impact Great Impact On a scale of 1-10, where “1” means tough economic times haven’t impacted me personally at all, and “10” means tough economic times have impacted me personally a great deal, how would you rate yourself?13
  • ... and to most, recovery still seems a ways off. Economic Outlook: “The economy will get better ...” 60 83 50 41 40 42 30 23 20 11 19 10 9 6 2 0 I never considered It has already It will start It will start It will start I have no idea the country to started to to get better to get better to get better when it will be in a recession get better this fall in 2011 in 2012 or get better (2010) later % When, if ever, do you think the economy will start to get better?14
  • THE TEA PARTY15
  • There is a tricky element to predicting this election, as many Americans have yet to make up their minds about the Tea Party ... Total Democrat 70 70 60 60 50 48 50 47 41 40 40 30 29 30 23 20 20 12 10 10 0 0 Support Neither Support Oppose Support Neither Support Oppose nor Oppose nor Oppose Independent Republican 70 70 60 60 58 50 50 42 40 35 40 38 30 30 23 20 20 10 10 4 0 0 % Support Neither Support nor Oppose Oppose Support Neither Support nor Oppose Oppose How much would you say you support or oppose the Tea Party movement?16
  • ... though many feel familiar with the beliefs and goals of the movement. Total Democrat 70 70 60 60 54 52 50 50 40 34 40 35 30 29 30 27 20 20 20 17 20 17 10 10 0 0 Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Independent Republican 70 70 60 61 60 70 50 50 42 40 40 34 36 31 30 30 20 19 20 19 8 11 10 10 0 0 Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All % Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar How familiar would you say you are with the beliefs and goals of the Tea Party movement?17
  • THIS ELECTION’S TONE & URGENCY18
  • Republicans are more closely attuned to this season’s races ... Percent who are following this year’s election more 25% closely than past elections. 54% 23% Independents Would you say, for this year’s election, you are following the contests more closely, less closely or about the same as past elections?19
  • ... and more likely to see this election season as particularly contentious, though high percentages of all voters feel this way. Percent who say this year’s election is more 46% contentious than past elections. 66% 51% Independents And would you say that this year’s election is more contentious, less contentious or about the same as past elections?20
  • The anger among Republicans is palpable, especially around taxes and pieces of legislation. Democrats feel more satisfied with where the country is today. % saying each item will get better The laws that are being passed in this country 63 30 The amount I pay in taxes 57 20 The cost of food at the grocery store 33 17 The safety of the food at the grocery store 25 24 The safety of over-the-counter medications at 24 the drug store 17 The quality of cars/trucks/vans 23 16 The safety of cars/trucks/vans 22 20 The safety of prescription drugs at 22 If Republicans win the drug store 24 (among Republicans) If Democrats win The cost of cars/trucks/vans 21 (among Democrats) 13 % And over the next six months, do you think each of these will get better, get worse or stay the same?21
  • And Republicans are far more worried about Democrats maintaining control than Democrats are about Republicans taking control. % saying each item will get worse The laws that are being passed in this country 53 79 The amount I pay in taxes 49 82 The cost of food at the grocery store 45 65 The safety of the food at the grocery store 29 42 The safety of over-the-counter medications at 25 the drug store 37 The quality of cars/trucks/vans 27 39 The safety of cars/trucks/vans 26 39 The safety of prescription drugs at 33 If Republicans win the drug store 41 (among Democrats) If Democrats win The cost of cars/trucks/vans 38 (among Republicans) 49 % And over the next six months, do you think each of these will get better, get worse or stay the same?22
  • And this anger turns to anxiety, with outsized Republican anxiety about the economy and the current Democratic administration. Political Leadership 1000 Threat of State of Terrorism 800 Economy Political Leadership 600 Political Leadership 1000 1000 Threat of State of Threat of Terrorism 800 State of Terrorism Economy 800 400 600 Economy 600 Political Leadership Potential Potential 400 400 Cost of State of Cost Care 1000 200 Military Potential Threat of Military Military Hostilities Terrorism 200 200 800 Economy Cost of Health of Hostilities Hostilities 0 0 600 Health Care Health Care 0 400 Potential Military Current 200 Cost of of Cost Current Hostilities Cost of Care Health Living Military Military 0 Living Hostilities Hostilities Crime Job Security Crime Job Security Current Cost of Military Living Hostilities Current Cost of Military Crime Living Job Security Hostilities Democrats Independents Republicans Crime Job Security AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not23
  • THANK YOUMark Truss Ann M. MackDirector of Brand Intelligence Director of TrendspottingJWT Worldwide JWT Worldwidemark.truss@jwt.com ann.mack@jwt.com www.AnxietyIndex.com (c) 2010 J. Walter Thompson Company. All Rights Reserved.