The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives



                       The Future Trends
                       in T...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




 [A] Tourism – already a global competition


                     ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org]                   Copyrigh...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




                              Data provided by: World Economic Foru...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org]                   Copyrigh...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org]                   Copyrigh...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org]                   Copyrigh...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org]                   Copyrigh...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
                                                                       ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




                                                The future state:
 ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




            [T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies


               ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

                                                                      ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

                                                                      ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

                                                                      ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org]                  Copyright...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


   LCC in Asia‘s Tourism Market [2006]




Dr. Joachim Willms [touris...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

     UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forec...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

                                 UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

       Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 – 2025 in World Regions...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




              [T2] Tourism Future – „Ageing Europe“


             ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


   Tourism Future &
   Ageing Europe                              Lif...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


   Tourism Future &
   Ageing Europe
   Population Ageing in the
   E...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


                                                Facts:
   Tourism Fut...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

                                                 Share of persons 60 y...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


                                                Consequences:
   Tour...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

Results from the SHARE-Project
                                       ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


                                                Consequences:
   Tour...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




                   [T3] Tourism Future – „VFR-Tourism“


          ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

              The Sustainable VFR-Tourism Trend in World Tourism




 ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




               [T4] Tourism Future & Climate Change


             ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for:




...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

  IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for...




...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives




                              Data provided by: World Economic Foru...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

          IPCC-Data: Regional Warming [inter-modell consistancy]




D...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


       North Amerika                                                 ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


       North Amerika                                                 ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives


       North Amerika                                                 ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

           Caribbean                       North America              ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

           Caribbean                       North America              ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

           Caribbean                       North America              ...
The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives



                                           NW- and Central-
        ...
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Willms Future Trends In Tourism Global Perspectives Club Of Amsterdam Confernce 2007 05 31

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Global perspectives of future tourism developments.

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Willms Future Trends In Tourism Global Perspectives Club Of Amsterdam Confernce 2007 05 31

  1. 1. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives ‚the future of TOURISM‘, a Club of Amsterdam conference 31.05.2007, Amsterdam. Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 1
  2. 2. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives [A] Tourism – already a global competition The current state: facts & figures Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 2
  3. 3. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 3
  4. 4. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 4
  5. 5. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 5
  6. 6. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 6
  7. 7. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 7
  8. 8. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 8
  9. 9. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Source: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007  The World‘s Top-30-Airports (in terms of passenger traffic) and Share of World Regions Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 9
  10. 10. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives The future state: forecasts & figures Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 10
  11. 11. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives [T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies 2005 – 2025: Two Asian Decades Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 11
  12. 12. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Source: WTTC 2007 Asia‘s Future Tourism Tigers Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 12
  13. 13. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Source: WTTC 2007 Asia‘s Future Tourism Tiger Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 13
  14. 14. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Source: WTTC 2007 Asia‘s Future Tourism Tigers Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 14
  15. 15. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 15
  16. 16. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives LCC in Asia‘s Tourism Market [2006] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 16
  17. 17. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forecast] Source: UNWTO: http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 17
  18. 18. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 18
  19. 19. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 – 2025 in World Regions PaxKm 2005 in bn. Growth Forecast 2006 – 2025 Average Annual Growth Rate in % Quelle: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 19
  20. 20. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives [T2] Tourism Future – „Ageing Europe“ Europe‘s New Burden - Retirement Poverty Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 20
  21. 21. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Life exspectancy at birth, 2001 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 21
  22. 22. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Population Ageing in the EU, France and Italy, 2000-2050 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 22
  23. 23. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Facts: Tourism Future & Ageing Europe • According to the United Nations, population ageing is • Population Ageing increasingly becoming one of the most salient social, economic and demographic phenomena of • Depopulation our times. • By 2030 the EU can expect and 14 percent fewer workers and 7 percent fewer consumers as 2005 • Shrinking Cities • By 2050, the number of people over 60 in Europe will reach 40% [in EUROPE] of the total population or 60% of the working age population. Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 23
  24. 24. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Share of persons 60 years and over Tourism Future & [as a % of the total population; Source: Eurostat] Ageing Europe Germany: 2000: 22,9% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 41% Population Ageing in the EU: • Germany Belgium: • Belgium 2000: 22.1% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 38% • Denmark • Spain Denmark: • France 2000: 19.9% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 36% Spain: Years 2000 / 2020 / 2050 2000: 21.8% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 44% France: 2000: 20.7% - 2020: 29% - 2050: 38% Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 24
  25. 25. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Consequences: Tourism Future & Ageing Europe • Shrinking Income • Shrinking Consumption • Population Ageing • Skrinking Wealth • Depopulation • Old Age Poverty & • Social Exclusion and • Growing Health Risks & • Long Term Health Problems • Shrinking Cities • Large Scale Immobilities & [in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destinations] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 25
  26. 26. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Results from the SHARE-Project Consequences: Tourism Future & [http://www.share-project.org] Ageing Europe ...clearly indicate that men • Shrinking Income and women with a lower socio- • Shrinking Consumption • Population Ageing economic status have already a • Skrinking Wealth worse physical health than those with a higher socio- • Depopulation • Old Age Poverty & economic position • Social Exclusion Among both men and women, a and low educational level or income • Growing Health Risks & is associated with a higher risk • Long Term Health Problems • Shrinking Cities of reporting less than good self- perceived health, long-term • Large Scale Immobilities & problems, as well as activity [in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destination] limitations due to health problems. Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 26
  27. 27. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Consequences: Tourism Future & Ageing Europe • Shrinking Income • Shrinking Consumption • Population Ageing • Skrinking Wealth Discussed Solution: • Depopulation New Migrant Workers: • Old Age Poverty & • Social Exclusion 80–700 million migrants by 2050! and • Growing Health Risks & • Long Term Health Problems • Shrinking Cities A sustainable increase of VFR-Tourism Immobilities & • Large Scale shall follow! [in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destination] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 27
  28. 28. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives [T3] Tourism Future – „VFR-Tourism“ „CU soon, my friend/brother“ - Global VFR-Tourism Streams Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 28
  29. 29. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives The Sustainable VFR-Tourism Trend in World Tourism Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 29
  30. 30. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives [T4] Tourism Future & Climate Change „The Mediterranization of Western- and Central-Europe“ - Climate Change Advantages [?] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 30
  31. 31. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for: Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 31
  32. 32. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for... Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 32
  33. 33. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 33
  34. 34. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives IPCC-Data: Regional Warming [inter-modell consistancy] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 34
  35. 35. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 35
  36. 36. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 36
  37. 37. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 37
  38. 38. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Amerika Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 38
  39. 39. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Amerika Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 39
  40. 40. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Elderly (esp. European) may avoid travel to „very hot summer destinations“; i. g. Amerika • the Mediterranean Basin • East Coast USA • South-West USA • Australian Cities Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 40
  41. 41. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives NW- and Central- Europe‘s Domestic and Incoming Tourism Streams may benefit from CC in the summer saison! • Warmer Coastal Waters [Increase in Sun & Beach Tourism] • New Marine Attractions [Dolphins, Fish Species, Algae and Corals, Birds] • Warmer Land Surfaces & • Mediterranization of Lifstyles Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 41

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