Report: Forecast 2010

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    Report: Forecast 2010 - Presentation Transcript

    1. This report will attempt to pull together key findings and information from research and effectively “collect” the most credible thinking and analysis of the present to look ahead to the future. It will attempt to combine disparate, fragmented information and insight to create a comprehensive, readable, digestible report about financial and economic trends related to retirement. It ultimately will serve as a “knowledge work” with practical applications and usable insights. Monday, August 3, 2009
    2. The report is designed to be forward- looking. A unique aspect of this report for sponsors would be its objectivity; you would be signing on with an editor and researcher concerned with the future of retirement, after two decades of experience in this area. The style and format would be report-like but with different voices of experts interwoven into the text which represent the various facets of retirement issues. I would envision interviewing identified experts from your organization to support other research or information relevant to the topic at hand. I plan to only solicit a select few sponsors for this project to maintain the integrity and authority of the document. Monday, August 3, 2009
    3. Current state of affairs • Overview of where we have been • State of financial markets • Volatility prospects • Returns • Investor sentiment • Regulatory efforts Monday, August 3, 2009
    4. Current state of affairs • U.S. retirement market asset and trend projections • Losses to date and recovery prospects • Issues pertaining to global forces • Observed or perceived realignments Monday, August 3, 2009
    5. Current state of affairs • Financial crisis and it aftermath • Problems of risky behavior • Other countries perspectives of U.S. • China-U.S. creditor-debtor dynamic and its meaning • U.S. as safehaven or other? Monday, August 3, 2009
    6. Current state of affairs • Economic growth prospects • Inflation prospects • Energy prices • Fed actions • Health care reform • Global factors Monday, August 3, 2009
    7. Pressure points • Demography, U.S. and global highlights • Health care • Reform specifics and outlook, particularly Medicare • Medicare macro and micro trends (benefits growth areas) Monday, August 3, 2009
    8. Pressure points • Social Security, state of • Deficits and their impact going forward • On long-term interest rates • Other impacts such as crowding out investments which lead to growth Monday, August 3, 2009
    9. Pressure points • Pension funds’ sustainability issues • Globalized financial markets: the good the bad, and the ugly • Workforce declines due to retirements Monday, August 3, 2009
    10. Issues for Fiduciaries and retirees • Fed’s ability to balance interest rates to control inflation and encourage economic growth • Realigning priorities for retirees • Balancing longevity risk vs. market risk • State of 401(k)s, target date funds, etc. • Liquidity issues ahead Monday, August 3, 2009
    11. Issues for Fiduciaries and retirees • Transparency in theory and practice • Vulnerable populations, particularly women Monday, August 3, 2009
    12. Recovery moving ahead • Restoring trust • Opportunities for a more balanced global economy, ie., that U.S. consumption isn’t driving global output to same extent. How that might look. • New insights gleaned by financial market players • Changes to retirement security or new frameworks Monday, August 3, 2009
    13. Other information • I would like to commence work by early September. I would expect a rough draft for review in December. A designed report would ready by February 2010 for release to your designated recipients and for the RSI’s purposes. • Please see retirementsecurityinstitute.com for work on this topic and www.conceptelemental.com for other publications. Call Jennifer Warren at 214.906.7695 for further discussions or information or email: jwarren@retirementsecurityinstitute.com. Monday, August 3, 2009
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