WORLD FOOD SECURITY:
                          NEW RISKS AND
                          OPPORTUNITIES

                    ...
2003/4 Strategic Issues facing IFPRI
       1. Future food systems risks and challenges
       2. Political system changes...
Hunger in Developing World, with
        and without China
                                                               ...
Chronic Undernutrition in Africa

          Developing
                                    17%
            World

        ...
Old risks and New risks
                        for food security
         Old: Production, Stockholding,
          Avail...
New risks
              for food and nutrition security
         Conflicts: High correlation between conflict
          a...
Old? World Grain Market:
        Cereal Production 1960-2003
                        1900

                        1700

 ...
Old? World Cereal Stocks, 1960-2003
                        700

                        600

                        500
...
Old? World Cereal Prices, 1998-2004
                          M aize and Wheat International Prices

                  165...
Scenarios of IMPACT Model: 2050

       Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
            New Focus on Agricultural Growth...
World Cereal Area

                        900      Progressive Policy Actions
                                 Policy Fai...
World Cereal Production

                               Progressive Policy Actions
                      3,500    Policy F...
Price of Maize

                                          Progressive Policy Actions

                             190    ...
Global per capita MEAT Demand

                              Progressive Policy Actions
                              Poli...
Number of Malnourished Children,
        Developing World
                            200

                            180...
Increased commitment to improve
        food security
         International Initiatives
             • Millennium Develo...
Trade: WTO negotiations


         Subsidies in developed countries

         High tariffs and other trade barriers
    ...
Visible Northern Trade Barriers
                                  US and EU
         Agricultural tariffs: 4-5 times thos...
Hidden Northern Trade Barriers


                 Sanitary, and phytosanitary,
                   environmental, and socia...
Trade: How to re-start ?

         Reform of WTO rules and northern
          agricultural policies is not enough.
      ...
IMPACT: Net Cereal Trade
        Developing Countries
                         0
                              1997       ...
Success Stories
        Small farmers in
             • East Africa
             • Central America
             • Vietnam
...
IFPRI’s Strategy




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE   Page 23
2003 global and country-level research
        and outreach




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE   Page 24
IFPRI’s Food Policy Research
                        Framework
                                      Partners, CGIAR,     ...
Strategic Directions

                                       Global Food
                                         System
 ...
New ways of business: decentralized
        IFPRI




                                                                Beij...
Selected 2003/4 Research & Outreach
         HarvestPlus (with CIAT etc.)
         Program for Biosafety Systems
       ...
Facilitating Innovation and Quality

         External Reviews of IFPRI
         Ex-ante reviews of projects
         I...
Capacity Strengthening

        General approach:
         Training and capacity strengthening
          integrated with ...
Policy Communications

         Policy Dialogues (e.g. food safety;
          biotech)
         All –Africa IFPRI 2020 C...
Food Policy Communication
                Synthesizing IFPRI’s research
Layperson                                        P...
IFPRI-Canada Cooperation
        IDRC helped established IFPRI 30
         years ago
        Canadian experts – IFPRI’s ...
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WORLD FOOD SECURITY: NEW RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

  1. 1. WORLD FOOD SECURITY: NEW RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES Joachim von Braun Ottawa, March 23, 2004 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  2. 2. 2003/4 Strategic Issues facing IFPRI 1. Future food systems risks and challenges 2. Political system changes and governance problems 3. International trade and investment 4. Consumer and food industry-driven food systems 5. Deficiencies in pro-poor food and agricultural technology 6. Health crises, diet change, nutrition 7. Gender inequality and other discrimination 8. Pro-poor management of natural resources INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
  3. 3. Hunger in Developing World, with and without China Developing World 950 920 Developing w orld 900 w ithout China Millions Undernourished 850 800 817 798 750 780 700 650 663 600 624 635 616 550 500 1979-81 1990-92 1995-1997 1999-2001 Source: FAO, SOFI 2003 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3
  4. 4. Chronic Undernutrition in Africa Developing 17% World Sub Saharan 33% Africa Burundi 70% DR Congo 75% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % of undernourishment Source: FAO SOFI 2003 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4
  5. 5. Old risks and New risks for food security  Old: Production, Stockholding, Availability, Prices, “bad” Policies, “Shocks”  New: Complex Vulnerabilities of the Poor  THE RISK: Combinations of old and new Risks INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5
  6. 6. New risks for food and nutrition security  Conflicts: High correlation between conflict and food insecurity.  HIV/AIDS: Affects 29.4 million people in SSA.  Natural Resources Degradation: Declining soil fertility, declining access to water - food and nutrition crisis?  Hidden Hunger: 3.5 billion in developing world are iron deficient. Towards “Harvest Plus” Many of the poor more vulnerable INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 6
  7. 7. Old? World Grain Market: Cereal Production 1960-2003 1900 1700 1500 million tons 1300 1100 900 700 500 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 7
  8. 8. Old? World Cereal Stocks, 1960-2003 700 600 500 million tons 400 300 200 100 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 8
  9. 9. Old? World Cereal Prices, 1998-2004 M aize and Wheat International Prices 165 Maize 155 Wheat 145 135 U$S/Ton 125 115 105 95 85 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Rice International Price 320 300 280 U$S/Ton 260 240 220 200 180 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 9
  10. 10. Scenarios of IMPACT Model: 2050 Progressive Policy Actions Scenario: New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural Development Policy Failure Scenario: Trade and Political Conflict, Rise in Protectionism Worldwide Technology and Resource Management Failure Scenario: Adverse Technology/Natural Resource Interactions INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10
  11. 11. World Cereal Area 900 Progressive Policy Actions Policy Failure Technology and Resource M anagement Failure 800 Million ha 700 600 1997 2015 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 11
  12. 12. World Cereal Production Progressive Policy Actions 3,500 Policy Failure Technology and Resource M anagement Failure 3,000 million mt 2,500 2,000 1,500 1997 2015 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 12
  13. 13. Price of Maize Progressive Policy Actions 190 Policy Failure Technology and Resource M anagement Failure 170 US$/metric ton 150 130 110 90 70 1997 2015 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 13
  14. 14. Global per capita MEAT Demand Progressive Policy Actions Policy Failure Technology and Resource M anagement Failure 60 kg/capita 45 30 15 1997 2015 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 14
  15. 15. Number of Malnourished Children, Developing World 200 180 160 140 Million children 120 100 80 60 Progressive Policy Actions 40 Policy Failure 20 Technology and Resource Management Failure 0 1997 2015 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 15
  16. 16. Increased commitment to improve food security  International Initiatives • Millennium Development Goals • World Bank Rural Strategy 2002  Regional Initiatives • NEPAD  National Governments • Most food insecure countries have initiated new policies to enhance food security in their countries • But little change in their budgets INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 16
  17. 17. Trade: WTO negotiations  Subsidies in developed countries  High tariffs and other trade barriers in developed and developing countries Distort agricultural trade and hinder progress on food security. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 17
  18. 18. Visible Northern Trade Barriers US and EU  Agricultural tariffs: 4-5 times those on manufactured goods  Tariffs escalate on high value and processed goods INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 18
  19. 19. Hidden Northern Trade Barriers Sanitary, and phytosanitary, environmental, and social requirements can often act as non- tariff barriers INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 19
  20. 20. Trade: How to re-start ?  Reform of WTO rules and northern agricultural policies is not enough.  Developing-country governments must also reform their own market and trade policies. Agriculture Exports are a dynamic force for poverty reduction INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 20
  21. 21. IMPACT: Net Cereal Trade Developing Countries 0 1997 2015 2030 2050 -50 -100 million mt -150 -200 Progressive Policy Actions -250 Policy Failure Technology and Resource Management -300 Failure INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 21
  22. 22. Success Stories Small farmers in • East Africa • Central America • Vietnam have entered global fruit and vegetable markets Access to Supermarkets? Less poverty and more staple food production. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 22
  23. 23. IFPRI’s Strategy INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 23
  24. 24. 2003 global and country-level research and outreach INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 24
  25. 25. IFPRI’s Food Policy Research Framework Partners, CGIAR, Influence Research stakeholders on policies Capacity strengthening Policymakers, media, opinion Impact on Policy leaders, and poor communication IFPRI people INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 25
  26. 26. Strategic Directions Global Food System Functioning Global and National Global Food Food System System Governance Innovations INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 26
  27. 27. New ways of business: decentralized IFPRI Beijing New Delhi San Jose Addis Ababa INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 27
  28. 28. Selected 2003/4 Research & Outreach  HarvestPlus (with CIAT etc.)  Program for Biosafety Systems  Pathways out of Poverty and Safety Nets  Trade policy (global, regional, national)  IFPRI-ILRI Livestock market policy  NEPAD cooperation in Africa (MOU) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 28
  29. 29. Facilitating Innovation and Quality  External Reviews of IFPRI  Ex-ante reviews of projects  Impact assessment research at IFPRI INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 29
  30. 30. Capacity Strengthening General approach:  Training and capacity strengthening integrated with our research Exploring new types of activities:  Collaborative Masters Program agr. econ. in Africa  CGIAR-Global Open University on Agricultural and Food (planning) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 30
  31. 31. Policy Communications  Policy Dialogues (e.g. food safety; biotech)  All –Africa IFPRI 2020 Conference in Uganda  China-India dialogue  Meeting policymakers one-on-one  Reaching out through media INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 31
  32. 32. Food Policy Communication Synthesizing IFPRI’s research Layperson Press Release Interested Issue Brief Insider Food Policy Report Expert Research Report INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 32
  33. 33. IFPRI-Canada Cooperation  IDRC helped established IFPRI 30 years ago  Canadian experts – IFPRI’s Board of Trustees  Canadian Researchers – IFPRI staff INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 33

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