Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Insecurity
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Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Insecurity

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Agriculture and Rural Development Daybreak Seminar Series

Agriculture and Rural Development Daybreak Seminar Series
USAID, Washington DC
June 3, 2009

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Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Insecurity Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Insecurity Presentation Transcript

  • Why Hunger in Asia? Agricultural and Rural Development for Reducing Food Insecurity Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Agriculture and Rural Development Daybreak Seminar Series USAID, Washington DC June 3, 2009
  • IFPRI’s Offices and programs in Asia* IFPRI Rome IFPRI Headquarters, * IFPRI Beijing Washington, D.C. * ** IFPRI Dakar IFPRI Accra * ** IFPRI New Delhi IFPRI Abuja * IFPRI Addis Ababa IFPRI Kampala Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • IFPRI ranking: top 1% of development economics institutions and top 1 - 3% in Asia Field Rank # Institutions Ag. Economics 2 897 Africa 3 755 China 9 475 Development Economics 13 1585 Central & Western Asia 24 813 South East Asia 25 1062 RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) May 22, 2009 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Overview 1. Present realities: hunger and poverty 2. Emerging trends and challenges 3. Recounting the role of agriculture and rural development: Agenda for action Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Global poverty scenario: Asia now home to 67% of the poor 1981 2005 Population living below Population living below $1.25 a day = 1904 mil $1.25 a day = 1400 mil SSA Others Others 3% SSA 6% China RSA 11% 27% 15% 7% China REA&P 44% 9% India RSA 22% REA&P India 10% 13% 33% Rest of East Asia and Pacific Rest of South Asia Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.
  • 912 million people remain poor in South and East Asia Poverty at $1/day, 2005 PPP 1.2 East Asia and Pacific South Asia 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.8 Billions 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.
  • Groups excluded from poverty reduction remain among the poorest in Asia • Laos: prevalence of poverty is more than twice as high among the minority Mon-Khmer than the majority Lao • Vietnam: incidence of poverty is more than 6 times higher among ethnic minorities than among the Kinh and Chinese • India: scheduled castes and tribes are overrepresented among the poor (more true for scheduled tribes than for scheduled castes) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Ahmed et al. 2008.
  • Asia home to largest number of undernourished people Countries resized relative to undernourished population in 2000 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Worldmapper 2009.
  • Hunger “alarming” in parts of Asia: 2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: von Grebmer et al., IFPRI 2008.
  • And “extremely alarming” in some regions: 2008 India State Hunger Index (ISHI) - 12 of 17 states: “alarming” - Madhya Pradesh: “extremely alarming” Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Menon et al. 2008.
  • Problem zone “under–two” worst in Asia Weight for age by region 0.5 0.25 0 -0.25 Z-score (NCHS) -0.5 -0.75 -1 -1.25 -1.5 -1.75 -2 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 Age (months) Africa Latin America and Caribbean Asia Source: Shrimpton et al. 2001. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Overview 1. Present realities: hunger and poverty 2. Emerging trends and challenges 3. Recounting the role of agriculture and rural development: Agenda for action Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Food price shocks: Some Asian countries are among the most vulnerable Rank Country Overall Micro- Macro- Population vulnerability vulnerability vulnerability (mil.) index index index 1 Eritrea 1.65 1.48 2.05 4.7 2 Ethiopia 1.54 1.64 1.39 77.2 3 Sierra Leone 1.52 1.77 1.07 5.7 4 Yemen 1.51 1.47 1.63 21.7 5 Haiti 1.44 1.13 2.11 9.4 6 Liberia 1.37 1.56 1.02 3.6 7 Bangladesh 1.24 1.77 0.23 156.0 8 Myanmar 1.16 0.53 2.45 48.4 9 Djibouti 1.16 0.88 1.75 0.8 10 Malawi 1.13 1.40 0.63 13.6 11 Zambia 1.11 1.47 0.43 11.7 12 Madagascar 1.10 1.26 0.81 19.2 13 Cambodia 1.06 1.57 0.05 14.2 14 Angola 1.03 0.97 1.17 16.6 15 Sri Lanka 0.97 0.73 1.48 19.9 16 Zimbabwe 0.96 0.96 0.98 13.2 17 Tajikistan 0.93 1.03 0.76 6.6 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Headey and Fan 2008.
  • Slower growth and global financial crisis GDP, annual % change constant prices • Less capital for 14 agriculture 12 10 • Higher debt burden for 8 farmers 6 4 • Reduced employment Developing Asia 2 China and wages of India 0 unskilled workers 2011 2004 2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2014 • Reduced remittances Source: IMF 2009. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Asian countries facing increasing overall risks for the future Overall vulnerability to the global downturn Country Lao PDR H Tajikistan H Vietnam H Afghanistan M Bangladesh M Cambodia M India M Pakistan M Sri Lanka M Myanmar L Nepal L China n.a Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: IMF 2009.
  • Fragmenting farms (e.g. India) Less than 2 hectares 2-4 hectares 4 and above hectares Area of Holdings-India 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 Avg. Size 2.3 1.82 1.55 1.41 1.37 Number of holdings-India 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Agricultural Census Division, India.
  • Agriculture growth not matching price increases Agriculture value added (annual % growth) 10 •Food prices remain at East Asia & Pacific historically high levels South Asia 8 in several countries 6 •Increases in rice 4 production since 2007 only marginal 2 •Food supply and 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 market access -2 difficulties persist -4 -6 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: WDI 2008 and FAO 2009.
  • Agricultural productivity growth in developing countries Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003 % East Asia 2.7 South Asia 1.0 East Africa 0.4 West Africa 1.6 Southern Africa 1.3 Latin America 2.7 North Africa & West Asia 1.4 All regions 2.1 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: von Braun et al. 2008.
  • Agricultural growth has large poverty reduction impact Poverty reduction elasticities of agricultural growth Low Income Countries SSA -1.83 South Asia -1.73 East Asia and Pacific -1.44 Eastern and Central Europe -1.57 Latin America -1.11 Middle East and North Africa -0.92 All Low Income Countries -1.6 Source: Christaensen et al (2005) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Largest global CO2 emitters Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton 2006.
  • Climate induced change in production in 2050: Irrigated rice -16.2% Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Cereal demand: 1995 and 2025 Business as usual (BAU) 1995 2025 1500 1228 million metric ton 1200 900 794 581 600 375 275 300 171 114 176 102 55 0 India China Southeast South Asia Asia Asia (excluding India) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2002.
  • Meat demand: 1995 and 2025 BAU 1995 2025 180 154 million metric ton 150 120 102 90 72 60 47 10 19 30 4 8 3 7 0 India China Southeast South Asia Asia Asia (excluding India) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2002.
  • Overview 1. Present realities: hunger and poverty 2. Emerging trends and challenges 3. Recounting the role of agriculture and rural development: Agenda for action Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Strategic agenda 1. Promote pro-poor agriculture growth with technology and institutional innovations 2. Facilitate open trade and reduce market volatility 3. Expand social protection and child nutrition action Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Agriculture R&D, roads, education among highest return public investments China India Thailand Vietnam Uganda Ranking of Returns in Agricultural Production Agricultural R&D 1 1 1 1 1 Irrigation 5 4 5 4 Education 2 3 3 3 3 Roads 3 2 4 2 2 Telecommunications 4 Electricity 6 8 2 Health 7 4 Soil and Water Conservation 6 Anti-Poverty Programs 5 Ranking of Returns in Poverty Reduction Agricultural R&D 2 2 2 3 1 Irrigation 6 7 5 4 Education 1 3 4 1 3 Roads 3 1 3 2 2 Telecommunications 5 Electricity 4 8 1 Health 6 4 Soil and Water Conservation 5 Anti-Poverty Programs 7 4 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Shenggen Fan et. al. IFPRI 2008
  • Central for long-term agric. growth: Double public agric. R&D to impact poverty R&D allocation  in # of + Agr. output (mil. 2005 $) poor (mil.) growth (% pts.) 2008* 2013 2008-2020 2008-2020 SSA 608 2,913 -143.8 2.8 S Asia 908 3,111 -124.6 2.4 Devel.ing world 4,975 9,951 -282.1 1.1 CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansion Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.
  • With supporting public investments, farmers can respond to higher prices But government investments in seeds, fertilizer, irrigation, and rural infrastructure are critical In response to the food crisis: - China: agric. spending +30% in 2008 - India: agric. spending +20% in 2008 Plus 2009 stimulus packages: - China: 109 bil. US$ for agriculture - India: also increased ++ Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Moving from staples to high-value agriculture • Rapid transformation in agri-system in Asia resulting from diet diversification & supply factors • Opportunity for small holders if they can connect to new markets, else a major challenge to remain afloat • HVP require a shift in policy approach from farming to agri-system.……of value chains Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Key climate change adaptation policies and investments for Asia • Crop breeding for biotic and abiotic stresses agricultural productivity growth remains key to future food security under climate change • Enhanced water control (to adapt to sea-level rise, glacier melting and extreme events) • Knowledge, information and risk sharing approaches to support flexible farmer adaptation • Market-based approaches to manage environmental services combined with secure property rights Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • In sum: Actions for agricultural productivity • Access to finance (e.g. rural banks and micro-finance) • Expansion of risk management (e.g. crop insurance) • Access to inputs (e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs) • Access to services, extension • Investment in rural infrastructure (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • 2. What to do about volatility? 1. Keep trade open at times of global and regional food shortage is a must 2. Regulation of food commodity markets? (as part of financial markets) 3. Establish grain reserves policy at global level (emergency reserve, shared physical reserves, and a virtual reserve > a new institution at global level needed) with strong Asian participation Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • 3. Support pro-poor food and nutrition interventions Protective actions e.g.: • Cash transfers • Employment-based food security programs Preventive actions e.g.: • School feeding • Early childhood nutrition programs Focus on children, women, and poorest Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Scaling up social protection • All Asian countries have some form of social protection through targeted safety net and social security programs • Interventions need to be scaled up and expanded, which would require: - additional investments - strengthening of the knowledge base and capacity • Country-specific conditions should dictate the choice and design of social protection interventions Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Implementation of strategic agenda in partnerships A focus on • Science and technology for rural growth • Trade and market institutions • Government effectiveness • Public – private cooperation How? > Adjusted to country typology – the tremendous diversity of Asia > Strategic partnerships with China and India > Due attention to the agriculture and food links to security Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009
  • Among food insecure Asian countries Tajikistan is the most food insecure (weather and soil fertility are constraints to agric. production) Cambodia ranks 2nd in food insecurity (increased irrigation and soil management are key) Bangladesh ranks 3rd (increased irrigation is top priority) Laos and Nepal also rank high (irrigation should be the top in investment priorities) Sri Lanka, Philippines have potential (governance & stability should be priority) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Headey and Fan 2008.
  • Improve government effectiveness Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 Source: Kaufmann et al. 2008.
  • Consider strategic partnerships Networks of research leaders, innovative business leaders, and civil society: for food security, rural change, agriculture and Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009 policy-making
  • www.ifpri.org Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, June 2009