The Changing Economics and Politics of Rice:
Implications for Food Security, Globalization,
and Environmental Sustainabili...
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of ri...
The role of rice at a crossroad
Cultural roots, poverty,
locale tastes and production
Globalization, new science, new tast...
Main questions
What patterns of rice demand in the
future?
What future of rice technology?
Why is rice not very affecte...
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of ri...
Rice and Food Security
Percentage of calories from rice in diet
1970 1980 1990 2001
Asia 38 36 35 31
South America 11 11 1...
Changing demand for rice
1. At higher incomes:
 people diversify diet away from rice,
 shift towards higher quality of r...
“Favorable Abundance Infinitely”, Chee Wang Ng
Rice and poverty
 Rice consumption and production are closely
linked to poverty
 Rice as agent of change to get out of p...
Rice research reduces poverty
India China
Number of
poor reduced
from rice
research
(million)
Reduction
as a % of
total po...
Photo by Kyaw Swar Tun, Myanmar (IYR Photo Contest)
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of ri...
Production and world price trends
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 200...
Distribution of rice ecosystems
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AsiaLatinAmerica
Africa
Australia
USA
Europe
W
orld
Deepwater
Upla...
Environmental Issues
 Water use efficiency of irrigated rice is low,
requiring large amounts of water
 Pesticides and fe...
Yield patterns and developments
 The potential to increase yield in rainfed
ecosystems is still vast (positive impact on
...
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of ri...
Rice: multiple functions of a strategic
commodity in a difficult market
Due to its importance in the diet of the poor
and...
Rise of the private sector
Activities traditionally carried put by
government are increasingly being transferred
to the p...
Rice export price, 1983-2004 (Thailand)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001...
New support policies for rice in
developing countries
Producer Support Estimates %
1992 2002
India -25 +40
Indonesia +11 +...
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of ri...
Scenario analysis for alternative
policy developments
1. Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
New Focus on Agricultural Gr...
World rice demand scenarios
350,000
390,000
430,000
470,000
510,000
550,000
590,000
1997 2015 2030 2050
('000mt,milledrice...
Rice yield scenarios
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1997 2015 2030 2050
Kg/ha
Progressive PolicyActions
PolicyFailure
Technologya...
Scenarios of world price of rice
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 2015 2030 2050
U$S/t
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Fai...
Sharon Oliver United Kingdom , IYR Photo Contest
PERCENTAGE of children malnourished
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 2015 2030 2050
Percentageofmalnourished
children
Progressive Po...
1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of ri...
Conclusions
1. Rice continues to be crucial for food and
nutrition security.
2. Feeding the growing population requires
in...
4. The need for efficiency in globalization.
Rice policies shift towards less
government intervention
5. Rice remains an a...
“The Great Laughter”, Chee Wang Ng
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The Changing Economics and Politics of Rice: Implications for Food Security, Globalization and Environmental Sustainability

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World Rice Research Conference
Tokyo, Japan, November 4, 2004

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The Changing Economics and Politics of Rice: Implications for Food Security, Globalization and Environmental Sustainability

  1. 1. The Changing Economics and Politics of Rice: Implications for Food Security, Globalization, and Environmental Sustainability Joachim von Braun Director General, IFPRI World Rice Research Conference Tokyo, Japan, November 4, 2004
  2. 2. 1. The global context of rice 2. Consumption patterns of rice 3. Rice production and technology 4. Political economy of rice, markets and trade 5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050 6. Concluding ideas and way forward Overview
  3. 3. The role of rice at a crossroad Cultural roots, poverty, locale tastes and production Globalization, new science, new tastes
  4. 4. Main questions What patterns of rice demand in the future? What future of rice technology? Why is rice not very affected by globalization and will this remain so? What future role of government and private sector in the rice systems?
  5. 5. 1. The global context of rice 2. Consumption patterns of rice 3. Rice production and technology 4. Political economy of rice, markets and trade 5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050 6. Concluding ideas and way forward Overview
  6. 6. Rice and Food Security Percentage of calories from rice in diet 1970 1980 1990 2001 Asia 38 36 35 31 South America 11 11 12 11 Africa 5 7 7 8 United States 1 1 2 2 European Union 1 1 1 2 World 20 19 21 21 Source: World Rice Statistics, IRRI (September 2004)
  7. 7. Changing demand for rice 1. At higher incomes:  people diversify diet away from rice,  shift towards higher quality of rice. 2. Population growth increases the demand for rice, 3. Growing urbanization lowers demand for rice 4. Prices matter for the poor
  8. 8. “Favorable Abundance Infinitely”, Chee Wang Ng
  9. 9. Rice and poverty  Rice consumption and production are closely linked to poverty  Rice as agent of change to get out of poverty  Rice is the main staple food of the poor  Rice is a major source of income and employment for rural people, especially in Asia  Rice is healthy, but can become more so: bio- fortified rice to improve the quality of the diet of the poor
  10. 10. Rice research reduces poverty India China Number of poor reduced from rice research (million) Reduction as a % of total poor (%) Number of poor reduced from rice research (million) Reduction as a % of total poor (%) 1991 4.9 2.1 5.2 5.5 1999 3.1 1.9 1.5 4.5 Source: Fan et al. IFPRI 2003
  11. 11. Photo by Kyaw Swar Tun, Myanmar (IYR Photo Contest)
  12. 12. 1. The global context of rice 2. Consumption patterns of rice 3. Rice production and technology 4. Political economy of rice, markets and trade 5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050 6. Concluding ideas and way forward Overview
  13. 13. Production and world price trends 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 300,000 320,000 340,000 360,000 380,000 400,000 420,000White Broken Rice, Thai A1 Super, f.o.b Bangkok Production (milled) Source: USDA PS&D Database (2004); and FAO Commodities and Trade Division (2004)
  14. 14. Distribution of rice ecosystems 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% AsiaLatinAmerica Africa Australia USA Europe W orld Deepwater Upland Rainfed lowland Irrigated Source: World Rice Statistics, IRRI (September 2004)
  15. 15. Environmental Issues  Water use efficiency of irrigated rice is low, requiring large amounts of water  Pesticides and fertilizer, loss of biodiversity, pests, depletion of natural soil fertility  Complex interactions with climate change and land use
  16. 16. Yield patterns and developments  The potential to increase yield in rainfed ecosystems is still vast (positive impact on poorest farmers in low income countries)  Important scientific breakthroughs have enabled less favored areas to improve productivity (e.g. IRRI’s drought tolerant varieties, hybrid rice in China, and NERICA in Africa)
  17. 17. 1. The global context of rice 2. Consumption patterns of rice 3. Rice production and technology 4. Political economy of rice, markets and trade 5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050 6. Concluding ideas and way forward Overview
  18. 18. Rice: multiple functions of a strategic commodity in a difficult market Due to its importance in the diet of the poor and main source of income for farmers Rice markets are thin, concentrated, volatile: Governments intervene to avoid instability Historically, policies maintained stable prices for consumers in urban areas and subsidize farmers
  19. 19. Rise of the private sector Activities traditionally carried put by government are increasingly being transferred to the private sector, e.g. stockholding International trade activities are moving towards private traders, The influence of large state trading companies is diminishing
  20. 20. Rice export price, 1983-2004 (Thailand) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 US$/Ton White Rice, Thai 100% B second grade, f.o.b. Bangkok
  21. 21. New support policies for rice in developing countries Producer Support Estimates % 1992 2002 India -25 +40 Indonesia +11 +46 Viet Nam -11 +32 Sources: Mullen, Gulati, and Orden (2004); Thomas and Orden (2004) and Sun (2003) at IFPRI
  22. 22. 1. The global context of rice 2. Consumption patterns of rice 3. Rice production and technology 4. Political economy of rice, markets and trade 5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050 6. Concluding ideas and way forward Overview
  23. 23. Scenario analysis for alternative policy developments 1. Progressive Policy Actions Scenario: New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural Development 2. Policy Failure Scenario: Trade and Political Conflict, rise in protectionism worldwide 3. Technology and Resource Management Failure Scenario: Adverse technology/natural resource interactions
  24. 24. World rice demand scenarios 350,000 390,000 430,000 470,000 510,000 550,000 590,000 1997 2015 2030 2050 ('000mt,milledrice) Progressive Policy Actions Policy Failure Technology and Resource Management Failure Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)
  25. 25. Rice yield scenarios 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 1997 2015 2030 2050 Kg/ha Progressive PolicyActions PolicyFailure Technologyand Resource Management Failure Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)
  26. 26. Scenarios of world price of rice 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1997 2015 2030 2050 U$S/t Progressive Policy Actions Policy Failure Technology and Resource Management Failure Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)
  27. 27. Sharon Oliver United Kingdom , IYR Photo Contest
  28. 28. PERCENTAGE of children malnourished 10 15 20 25 30 35 1997 2015 2030 2050 Percentageofmalnourished children Progressive Policy Actions Policy Failure Technology and Resource Management Failure
  29. 29. 1. The global context of rice 2. Consumption patterns of rice 3. Rice production and technology 4. Political economy of rice, markets and trade 5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050 6. Concluding ideas and way forward Overview
  30. 30. Conclusions 1. Rice continues to be crucial for food and nutrition security. 2. Feeding the growing population requires increased yields. Sustainable rice production requires new technology 3. There is an international moral responsibility of high income countries with advanced rice science to share that with poorer nations
  31. 31. 4. The need for efficiency in globalization. Rice policies shift towards less government intervention 5. Rice remains an agent of change in societal and economic development. Rice- culture has modernized but certainly not vanished. Rice: a factor of healthy sustainability in globalization. Conclusions
  32. 32. “The Great Laughter”, Chee Wang Ng

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