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How Secure is Our Food?
 

How Secure is Our Food?

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Lincolnshire Agricultural Society,

Lincolnshire Agricultural Society,
Spring Lecture 2009
Lincolnshire, March 12, 2009

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    How Secure is Our Food? How Secure is Our Food? Presentation Transcript

    • How Secure is Our Food? Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Lincolnshire Agricultural Society, Spring Lecture 2009 Lincolnshire, March 12
    • What food security? The world – countries - people Availability Access Food Stability Utilization & Safety Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • A combination of stress factors for world agriculture Volatile input prices Low R&D investment Limited capital Climate change Subsidized biofuels Agri-food Water scarcity Biodiversity loss system Pests & diseases Land degradation Lack of infrastructure Declining trade Volatile output prices Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Are we living in unusual times? 1872-2008 prices and population Wheat price Population (right) 2000 US$/ton, 3yr averages 1000 8 800 6 Billions 600 4 400 2 200 0 0 1876 1976 1872 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Sources: J. von Braun, based on data from NBER Macrohistory database, BLS CPI database, Godo 2001, OECD 2005, and FAO 2008; Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Population data from U.S. Census Bureau Int‟l database and UN1999.
    • Global changes and impacts
    • The changing position of farms in the global food business value chain Consumers Agricultural Food input processors Food industry Farms and traders retailers top 10: $55 bln Agricultural top 10: $426 bln top 10: $1,042 value added: bln • Syngenta $1,674 bln • Nestle • Monsanto • Cargill • Wal-Mart $4,000 bln • Bayer C No. of farms: • Unilever • Carrefour • Dupont N ca. 450 mln • Tesco • ADM • Mosaic • Bunge • Metro G Size distr. • Kroger >100 ha: 0.5% < 2 ha: 85% Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: von Braun 2009
    • Farming matters for the economy GDP: • World: 4%; in 40% of countries > 20% • UK: 3% • Lincolnshire: 13% Labor: • World: 42 % • Lincolnshire: 14% Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Declining world grain productivity growth 6 maize Average annual growth rate (%) 5 rice wheat 4 3 2 1 0 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: World Development Report 2008.
    • Majority of the world‟s farms are small… Number of Farm size (ha) % of all farms farms (millions) <2 85 451 2 - 10 12 62 10 - 100 2.7 14 > 100 0.6 3 Total 100 530 UK: 57 hectare average, 14% > 100 hectare Source: country data and FAO Agricultural World Census. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • …and average farm sizes are getting smaller Hectares Average farm sizes in selected countries 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 19 71 19 82 20 92 3 20 92 2 3 80 90 99 19 77 20 95 -0 -0 -0 - - - - 19 19 19 19 19 70 81 91 02 89 01 02 19 India China Ethiopia Tanzania Sources: Fan and Chan-Kang 2003, FAO Agricultural World Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Census and Indiastat.
    • Low agricultural productivity growth in developing countries Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003 % East Asia 2.7 South Asia 1.0 East Africa 0.4 Small farms West Africa 1.6 can be very productive Southern Africa 1.3 Latin America 2.7 North Africa & West Asia 1.4 All regions 2.1 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: von Braun et al. 2008.
    • Higher and more volatile food prices 500 Price spike 400 US$/ton 300 Wheat 200 100 0 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: IFPRI, Data from FAO 2009.
    • World wheat: Small changes – big effects 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 8/9:7/8 % Production 621 598 609 688 + 13,0 Trade 110 110 110 118 + 7,3 Consumption 626 611 615 645 + 4,9 Stocks 134 120 115 157 + 36,5 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Good news for farmers? High prices good, BUT: • Higher production costs • Farmgate price uncertainty • Less capital for agriculture!? Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Who has responded? Growth of cereal output in 2007-08: 11%: developed countries 0.9%: developing countries 1.6%: developing, excl. Brazil, China, India Plans for investment scaled down as capital becomes more scarce and expensive Source: von Braun and data from FAO 2008. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Deepening financial crisis © Las Vegas Sun. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Severe impacts on the poor Expenditures: Non- food Food: 50-70% 115 million more hungry in 2008, compared to 2003-05 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Who is affected by hunger? Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005.
    • Food protests in more than 60 countries, 2007-08 25 Violent 20 Non-violent 14 15 1 7 10 1 14 5 9 9 6 0 Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income income income Source: Protests – news reports; Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Income group classification – World Bank 2007.
    • Food protests in more than 60 countries Food riots in Mexico 25 20 15 Number of riots 10 © Panna.org . 5 0 Jul-08 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Feb-08 Apr-08 May-08 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: J. von Braun based on data from news reports.
    • Food and financial crises interlinked Food crisis Financial crisis Serious implications! Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: von Braun; Dec 2008.
    • What factors drive change in the world food system?
    • With globalization… changes in the rest of the world are more relevant than ever Images from naturalspecialtyfoodsmemo.blogspot.com and enjoylincolnshire.co.uk. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Main drivers of change 1. Income growth 2. Energy and biofuels 3. Low agric. investment 4. Trade policy and market speculation 5. Climate change and shocks Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • (1) Income growth: Rising and shifting consumption Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • (2) Energy and biofuels 125 Biofuels must not 100 compete with food! Oil, US$/barrel 75 Caused 30% of the 50 grain price change. 25 0 Source: Data from IMF 2009. © Dave Reede Photography. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • (3) Low agric. investment Our food reserves are getting smaller ... China and India to the rescue: Image from MediaAmcor.com. India: + 26% agric budget 2008 China stimulus 2009: agric. from 18 to 106 Bill. US$ Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, Bill. $ for stocks incl. 26 March, 2009
    • (4) Trade policy and market speculation Rise in grain and oilseed futures and options Number of contracts Export bans starve your neighbor Source: Chicago Board of Trade 2008. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 © Kanika Rehani.
    • (4) Climate change and shocks Droughts in some places… And floods in others Image from freewebs.com. © MoD/Crown. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • UK self sufficiency in foods declining 1988: 71% 1998: 67% 2007: 59% Depending more on trade is secure as long as trade is secure. A new emphasis on food self sufficiency is not the answer. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • What does the future look like?
    • Recession + less agric. investment = less agric. production (1) © Dave Reede Photography. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Recession + less agric. investment = higher food prices (2) © 2008 D.C. Miel. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Recession + less agric. investment = more hunger (3) Image from southasia.oneworld.net © Marta Ramoneda/Polaris/LAIF. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Further threats from climate change Climate change impact on agric. production, factoring in carbon fertilization (%) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: Cline 2007.
    • Climate change: mixed news for Lincolnshire?! Temperature and rains ! Sea level raise? twice as fast as we thought Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Recession scenarios 2005-2020 Scenarios baseline: econ. growth as in past years 1: Recession: econ. growth falls by 2-3%, agric. investment maintained 2: Recession: econ. growth falls by 2-3%, agric. investment reduced Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Prices under recession and alternative agricultural investment scenarios Non-recession Maize 200 Same-investment Rice 300 Low-investment 150 250 100 2005 2010 2015 2020 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 Wheat 200 150 100 2005 2010 2015 2020 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: Rosegrant, von Braun; IFPRI IMPACT, Dec. 2008.
    • Number of malnourished children rises by 16 million with recession and low investment 210 World (excluding SSA) SSA 180 150 Millions 120 90 60 30 0 2005 2020 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: Rosegrant, von Braun; IFPRI IMPACT, Dec. 2008.
    • So what should be done?
    • Three priorities for global action needed 1. Promote pro-poor agriculture growth 2. Reduce market volatility 3. Expand social protection and child nutrition action Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Increased investment for agricultural productivity In the developing world In high productivity zones, like Lincolnshire Image from greekshares.com. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Actions for smallholder agric. productivity 1. Access to finance (rural banks and micro-finance) 2. Expansion of risk management (e.g. crop insurance) 3. Access to inputs (quality seeds, fertilizer, animal feed, veterinary drugs) 4. Access to services, extension 5. Investment in rural infrastructure (e.g. rural roads, electrification, irrigation) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Invest in science and technology for agric. productivity Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 © Dave Reede Photography and shimadzu.com.
    • Calm markets © Washington Post. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009
    • Support open trade Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Image from http://www.tjm.org.uk/.
    • Facilitate open trade: Scenario of the costs of protectionist trade policy Doha „Up to bound‟ tariff (July 2008 modalities) increases +1.46% trade - 7.7% trade - 11.5% developing country agric. trade + $336 bil. in trade - $1,774 bil. in trade + $59 bil. in welfare - $353 bil. in welfare Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Source: Bouet and Laborde 2008.
    • Provide social safety nets for the poor Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009 Image from stresssafetynets.com/.
    • So: How Secure is Our Food? •“our “ food is pretty secure •“their” food is not, i.e. the bottom half of the world / the poor •global action is needed for food and security
    • www.ifpri.org Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March, 2009