Climate Change and Food SecurityPresentation Transcript
Climate Change and Food Security Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute IPC and ICTSD Seminar “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Trade: Promoting Policy Coherence” Washington DC, October 29, 2009
Big picture of climate change policy challenges
Challenges of getting to a global climate change regime
Questions of global climate justice, historic liability, equal rights
Equitable cost-sharing for mitigation and adaption (per capita)
The Kyoto Protocol has large shortcomings
A more efficient global regime on basis of int’l cooperation is needed
17 Gt of reductions below ‘BAU’ required by 2020 for a 450ppm pathway with (40-60% chance of 2 degrees) Global GHG emissions, Gt CO 2 e per year 52 61 70 50 55 60 65 70 75 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 40 45 44 35 -17 -35 Reference pathway ‘ BAU’ 450ppm pathway (with overshoot) Change relative to 1990 17 -7 Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis 50 55 60 65 70 75 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 40 45
Commitment by int’l community to set climate change mitigation as a priority
Equitable burden sharing
Deterring sanction system against free-riders
Global carbon price establishment
Aggressive emission reductions by industrialized countries
Major funding for technology cooperation and transfer
Slower emissions growth in emerging economies
Monitoring and verification
Source: GES 2009.
Dealing with agriculture by appropriate integration into a Copenhagen agreement and beyond
Taking a dual perspective on climate change and food security
Address climate change in the context of food security
Address food security in the context of climate change
Not each in isolation!
This way find common grounds between developing and developed countries
Agriculture and climate change: part of the problem and the solution
Agriculture part of the problem : 14% of CO 2 emissions
Agriculture part of the solution : Biomass; CO 2 sequestration; soil management (source: IPCC 2007)
CO 2 emissions by country and sector Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton 2006.
Location-specific Biological and Socioeconomic Modeling is Critical
Climate change brings location-specific changes
in precipitation, temperature and variability to
local agronomic and market conditions
Modeling challenge – Reconcile
limited resolution of macro-level economic models with
crop model detail
More realistic modeling of climate change effects (biological and economic) on global/regional agriculture
Source: Nelson, IFPRI, 2009
Global Change Model Components, IFPRI
GCM climate scenarios
NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier) using SRES A2
DSSAT crop model
Crop response to local climate, soil and nitrogen applied
Spatial distribution of crops in 2000 based on crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops
Global food supply-demand-trade modeling to 2050 with global hydrology
Source: G. Nelson, et.al. IFPRI, 2009
Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated rice Global production = -27% NCAR A2a Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed maize Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009. NCAR A2a Global production = -16%
Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated wheat NCAR A2a Global production = -42% Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Climate change impact: Global food prices, 2050 Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 .
Climate change impact: Child malnutrition Part of the silent climate change health crisis Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 .
Climate change impact: Net cereal trade Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 . (Negative values indicate net imports)
Trade promotes coordination of environmental policies
Provide opportunities for linkage between environmental and trade concessions
Facilitate implicit side payments
Grant countries direct leverage over other countries’ production
Instill perception of shared goals
Example: Water pollution is lower in rivers shared between countries with more trade (analysis using data from the UN Global Environmental Monitoring System)
Source: Ringler, Biswas, Cline (eds.) 2009 .
The ongoing policy debate and potential actions
Agriculture-related terms in the Bonn conference negotiating text* June 2009 Source: Global Donor Platform for Rural Development 2009. *Revised Negotiating text June 22, 2009.
What costs agricultural adaptation ? IFPRI Model Assumptions
60% increase in all crop yield growth over baseline
30% increase in animal numbers growth
40% increase in production growth of oils and meals
25% increase in irrigated area growth
15% decrease in rainfed area growth
0.15% increase in basin water efficiency by 2050
Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 .
Additional annual agricultural adaptation funding required: +US$ 7 billion Expenditure to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$) Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 . The mix of investments differs by region Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Developing countries Agric. research 314 172 1,316 Irrigation expansion 537 344 907 Irrigation efficiency 187 999 2,158 Rural roads 2,015 17 2,737 Total 3,053 1,531 7,118
Agricultural research, water management, and rural investment
Crop breeding for both irrigated and rainfed agriculture
Biotechnology for stress tolerant materials to address drought- and heat-tolerance, salinization
Water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management etc.
Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs
Adaptation for increasing agricultural productivity Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009 .
Agricultural mitigation policy
Include carbon sequestration from soil carbon in global carbon trading system
Fund development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systems
Allow innovative payment mechanisms and support for novel institutions for agricultural mitigation
Create institutional innovations linking communities to global markets e.g. regional centers for carbon trading
Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009 .
Developing countries require different types of support for mitigation activities Source: McKinsey, 2009 Energy efficiency in buildings, transportation and industry Demos / investment in emerging technologies Agriculture and forestry Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t) Support to overcome barriers (best practice info, capacity building,loans) Support to compensate incremental costs, e.g. through offset market or grants Support to compensate incremental costs (grants) and international cooperation Power supply 8 10 12 14 2 4 6 * Cost of abatement € / ton Forestry Agriculture Industry Power Transport Buildings 0 20 40 60 -20 -80 -60 -40 Technology follows investment Abatement potential Gt CO 2 e
Enhance market incentives to realize environmental and social benefits
Develop and promote markets for carbon payments at appropriate scale and speed
What is the role of CO 2 trading?
Only 3-4% of carbon trading sourced from agriculture, land use change, agro-forestry and forestry
Tradeoffs and win-wins
Tradeoffs occur between GHG emissions of agric. and related mitigation action:
CO 2 sequestration in the short term leads to competition with food-fuel-fiber production and food security risks
But GMOs may reduce tradeoffs
Dynamics and potential win-wins:
If agric R&D investments have higher share
As payments for environmental services increase agric. productivity in the long term
A technology transfer package for Copenhagen (New Delhi conference Oct 22-23, 2009)
enhanced technological cooperation, joint research and development of new technologies and products;
periodic assessment, evaluation and expert guidance on new and emerging technologies;
technology financing, in particular public financing;
Public goods rather than IPR
improve access to and deployment of technologies.
Copy Green Revolution CGIAR - as a model for research collaboration on climate change technologies: creation of an international network of Climate Innovation Centers (CICs) as vehicles for enhancing technology innovation and capacity building in developing countries
The broad directions for food security conscious climate change policy
An efficient and fair global climate regime is needed
The food security effects of climate change must be important determinants for policy;
Investment for agriculture’s GHG neutrality must not be delayed
Invest in adaptation in developmental ways ; $ 7 billn. p.a.
Climate stress requires to more open trade
Carbon market opportunities for agriculture must not undermine food security