Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security

Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Chatham House conference London, November 2, 2009

Overview

Where do resources and research need to be deployed?

What impacts of international climate change agreements on food security?

Policy implications

International public goods for food security not delivered well; among them are

Trade policy

Research and technology of IPG nature

Climate change policy

All three are linked and have a large intersection with agriculture and natural resource management, and food security

Big picture of climate change, agriculture, and food security

policy challenges

17 Gt of reductions below ‘BAU’ required by 2020 for a 450ppm pathway with (40-60% chance of 2 degrees) Global GHG emissions, Gt CO 2 e per year 52 61 70 50 55 60 65 70 75 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 40 45 44 35 -17 -35 Reference pathway ‘ BAU’ 450ppm pathway (with overshoot) Change relative to 1990 17 -7 Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis 3-5 Gt from agric. and forestry 50 55 60 65 70 75 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 40 45

Proposed solutions

Equitable burden sharing

Deterring sanction system against free-riders

Global carbon price establishment

Aggressive emission reductions by industrialized countries

Major funding for technology cooperation and transfer

Slower emissions growth in emerging economies

Monitoring and verification

Source: GES 2009.

Challenges of getting to a global climate change regime

Questions of global climate justice, historic liability, equal rights

Equitable cost-sharing for mitigation and adaption (per capita)

Overcoming Kyoto Protocol shortcomings

A more efficient but fair global regime on basis of int’l cooperation is needed

Climate change will affect agriculture

Threat 1: Environmental changes affecting production with

higher and more variable temperatures

changed precipitation patterns

more extreme events (droughts, floods) etc.

Threat 2: Climate change policies affecting agriculture and poor farming communities

- even more distortions adding food sec. risks

- regulations, high trans action costs excluding poor from Carbon market opportunities

CO 2 emissions by country and sector Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton 2006.

Answers:

Where the problems are! (the poor exposed to climate change impact)

Where the opportunities are! (production, ecologies, water; market access)

Where the R&D breakthroughs are likely

Climate change policy must focus on the poor in rural areas

75% of the world’s poor live in rural areas in developing countries, and most depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.

To achieve food security, agriculture production must double to feed 9 billion people by 2050

The negative effects of climate change on agricultural productivity increase the food security challenge.

Directing research to reduce poverty Sub-national poverty ca. 2005 ($1.25/day) Prevalence Number Source: Stan Wood et al. (IFPRI) 2009.

Harness potential - Development domains - agricultural production potential and infrastructure

Explicit pro-poor climate change policies needed at all levels Climate change Extreme weather events Demographic change Conflict and crises

Crop and livestock selection

Cropping and grazing pattern

Irrigation/watering technology

Water allocation policy

Infrastructure investment

Land use change

Agriculture and water price policies

Investment, subsidy, tax policies

Trade policies

Regional trade policies

Global climate policies

Global trading patterns

GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPACIAL SCALES Source: IFPRI, Ringler 2007. Global level Regional level National level Farm level Basin level

Risk management (trade, reserves) Social protection INSURANCE Source: J. von Braun, adapted from Jacquier et al. 2006. Risk prevention (R&D) A comprehensive approach for addressing food security risks – not climate change in isolation

Overview

Policy implications

What impacts of international climate change agreements on food security? Depends on…

What agreement? – cap and trade; other, incl. CO2 tax;

What role agriculture? – agriculture included or not; or indirectly affect, e.g. through carbon price

How implemented? Investment funds for adapt., mitigation; balancing developed and developing countries’; time;

What complementary actions taken? - for trade; R&D policy; volatility reduction, etc.

Climate change impact: Global food prices, 2050 Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 .

Climate change impact: Child malnutrition Part of the silent climate change health crisis Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 .

Climate change impact: Net cereal trade Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 . (Negative values indicate net imports)

Overview

Policy implications

Agriculture-related terms in the Bonn negotiating text * Source: Global Donor Platform for Rural Development 2009. *Revised Negotiating text June 22, 2009. and more specific at Barcelona

Adaptation policy actions (and toward mitigation)

Agricultural research, water management, and rural investment

Crop breeding for both irrigated and rainfed agriculture and biotechnology for stress tolerant materials to address drought- and heat-tolerance,

Productivity of range lands and pastoralists

Water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management etc.

Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs

Adaptation for increasing agricultural productivity Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009 .

Agricultural adaptation funding estimation: assumptions for IFPRI modeling

60% increase in all crop yield growth over baseline

30% increase in animal numbers growth

40% increase in production growth of oils and meals

25% increase in irrigated area growth

15% decrease in rainfed area growth

0.15% increase in basin water efficiency by 2050

Additional annual agricultural adaptation funding required (IFPRI IMPACT model) to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$) Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009 . The mix of investments differs by region Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Developing countries Agric. research 314 172 1,316 Irrigation expansion 537 344 907 Irrigation efficiency 187 999 2,158 Rural roads 2,015 17 2,737 Total 3,053 1,531 7,118

Mitigation policy actions (and not de-linked from adaptation)

Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t) Source: McKinsey, 2009 Energy efficiency in buildings, transportation and industry Demos / investment in emerging technologies Agriculture and forestry Support to overcome barriers (best practice info, capacity building,loans) Support to compensate incremental costs, e.g. through offset market or grants Support to compensate incremental costs (grants) and international cooperation Power supply 8 10 12 14 2 4 6 * Cost of abatement € / ton Forestry Agriculture Industry Power Transport Buildings 0 20 40 60 -20 -80 -60 -40 Technology follows investment Abatement potential Gt CO 2 e

Agricultural mitigation policy

Include carbon sequestration from land use and soil carbon in global carbon trading system

Fund development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systems

Allow innovative payment mechanisms and support for novel institutions for agricultural mitigation

Tradeoffs and win-wins

Tradeoffs occur between GHG emissions of agric. and related mitigation action:

CO 2 sequestration in the short term leads to competition with food-fuel-fiber production and food security risks

GMOs can reduce tradeoffs

Potential win-wins can emerge:

If agric R&D investments have higher share

As payments for environmental services increase agric. productivity in the long term

R&D policy actions, and technology sharing, serving adaptation and mitigation

A technology transfer package for Copenhagen (New Delhi conference Oct 22-23, 2009)

enhanced technological cooperation, joint research and development of new technologies and products;

assessment, evaluation and expert guidance on new and emerging technologies;

technology financing;

Public goods rather than IPR

improve access to and deployment of technologies.

Copy Green Revolution CGIAR - as a model for research collaboration on climate change technologies: creation of an international network of Climate Innovation Centers (CICs);

> Let CGIAR do the agriculture and forestry related IPG innovations in cooperation with a CIC

New CGIAR strategic objectives

Strategic objectives (sub-goals):

Create and accelerate sustainable increases in the productivity and production of healthy food by and for the poor. (“FOOD FOR PEOPLE”)

Conserve, enhance, and sustainably use natural resources and biodiversity to improve the livelihoods of the poor in response to climate change and other factors. (“ENVIRONMENT FOR PEOPLE”)

Promote policy and institutional change that will stimulate agricultural growth and equity to benefit the poor, especially rural women and other disadvantaged groups. (“POLICY FOR PEOPLE”)

The broad directions for food security conscious climate change policy

An efficient and fair global climate regime is needed

The food security effects of climate change must be important determinants for policy;

Investment for agriculture’s GHG neutrality must not be delayed

Invest in adaptation in developmental ways ; $ 7 billn. p.a.

Climate stress requires to more open trade

Carbon market opportunities for agriculture must not undermine food security

Combining agric. carbon market participation with sound agricultural R&D promises win-win

Some proposed Copenhagen language: 1. Incentives for mitigation through bio-sequestration:

Nations are encouraged to provide incentives for mitigation through carbon sequestration associated with changes in land use, agricultural and forestry practices and for agricultural GHG emission reductions as an integral part of the global climate change regime. Such incentives shall be designed in ways that would not put food security at risk.

Some proposed Copenhagen language: 2. Investment for adaptation:

Investment for agricultural adaptation to climate change shall be increased in order to improve food security under climate change and therefore agriculture and forestry, especially in developing countries, shall benefit from a fund at appropriate scale for results oriented investments that enhance food security and livelihoods.

Some proposed Copenhagen language: 3. Technology generation and sharing:

An international public research network for climate change related technology generation and sharing shall be established and funded to operate as an independent consultative group, with a focus on knowledge related to both, adaptation and mitigation. It shall complement the desired innovations that are property rights protected. In the field of agriculture and forestry and land use and land cover change as well as water related research it shall draw on the CGIAR.

IFPRI on the web http://www.ifpri.org/