@justinspratt A Peek Around the Corner
<ul><li>Likely because I am  not  skinny   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ don’t trust a skinny chef” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>I wo...
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February   Disclaimer
<ul><li>Well, it already has: Afrihost @ R22 per GB standard, R14 if you are a customer and top up </li></ul><ul><li>Alrea...
<ul><li>Yes, by international standards, SA is still over priced </li></ul><ul><li>Problem now: national “backhaul” (fat p...
14 Cables.  Crikey.
Crazy Times <ul><li>FOURTEEN cables landing on the African continent </li></ul><ul><li>New: WACS, ACE, Main One, Glo1, LIO...
<ul><li>$6bn in spending (circa R42bn) </li></ul><ul><li>Increase capacity from 250Gbps to 1.5Tbps (thanks Seacom) to 10Tb...
Okay Fatty, so what is your prediction? <ul><li>By mid 2011 prices will have fallen by at least half again. </li></ul><ul>...
Greater transparency justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February   Greater Transparency
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February
The pirate party <ul><li>The demand on networks is nothing short of phenomenal </li></ul><ul><li>AT&T’s network is broken ...
Mobile ticketing <ul><li>Why use paper ticketing? </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile will increasingly replace the need for printed ...
Augmented Reality justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February   Augmented Reality
Media farms <ul><li>Taking your applications into The Cloud </li></ul><ul><li>The Cloud = Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Socia...
<ul><li>No chance.  Still the best system by far. </li></ul><ul><li>So what happened? </li></ul><ul><li>Bad frameworks – “...
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February   The rise of behavioural finance
Cold war with Angola? <ul><li>According to Stratfor, a global think tank, South Africa is at high risk of a cold war with ...
Reinventing Fire <ul><li>We know how to save half of our oil and gas and three-quarters of our electricity at a cost that ...
The World Cup <ul><li>“Grounds for optimism, citing conservative estimates of benefits at about R56bn, that could reach R8...
Media farms <ul><li>Mass production of content </li></ul><ul><li>Reporting done by bots </li></ul><ul><li>Editorials will ...
Scarcity <ul><li>Overcapacity and abundance has fallen </li></ul><ul><li>“With cost of distribution relentlessly driving t...
Food <ul><li>Cheap food is based on three things:  </li></ul><ul><li>cheap oil, plentiful water and a constant weather pat...
<ul><li>“people are increasingly neglecting their voicemails,” explains Streicher </li></ul><ul><li>Study by Sprint: peopl...
Call Centres vs. Contact Centres justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February   Call Centre vs. Contact Centre
geotagging “ check-in” – earn points – become the “mayor” justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February   geotagging
Better measures than GDP? <ul><li>France’s “Joie de Vivre” Index </li></ul><ul><li>Intended to provide a better  </li></ul...
The pirate party <ul><li>Challenging “groupthink” on copyright laws </li></ul><ul><li>Believe copyright impinges on cultur...
Emerging Economies <ul><li>“Even if developed countries recover completely in 2010, emerging economies will account for 70...
Emerging Economies <ul><li>“China’s growth as an economic superpower is increasingly correlated with that of Africa, on wh...
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February   Communications tools don't get socially interesting until they get techno...
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd  of February
Questions
<ul><li>Thanks </li></ul><ul><li>@justinspratt </li></ul>
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A Peek Around the Corner #heavychef

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a high level look at the future of bandwidth and connectivity in south africa, cursory looks at some technology trends shaping the world and a brief glance at some macro economic trends

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A Peek Around the Corner #heavychef

  1. 1. @justinspratt A Peek Around the Corner
  2. 2. <ul><li>Likely because I am not skinny  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ don’t trust a skinny chef” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>I work at Internet Solutions, so perhaps I have insight into bandwidth pricing </li></ul><ul><li>I have done a degree in economics and used to work for an investment bank, so perhaps I know stuff about the economy </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Why me?
  3. 3. justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Disclaimer
  4. 4. <ul><li>Well, it already has: Afrihost @ R22 per GB standard, R14 if you are a customer and top up </li></ul><ul><li>Already almost a 70% fall since launch of Seacom </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February So when the f*!k is bandwidth prices going to come down?
  5. 5. <ul><li>Yes, by international standards, SA is still over priced </li></ul><ul><li>Problem now: national “backhaul” (fat pipes that can distribute all the connectivity) </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile Operators, Neotel and DFA are laying down lots of fibre </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Okay, but it is still high, right?
  6. 6. 14 Cables. Crikey.
  7. 7. Crazy Times <ul><li>FOURTEEN cables landing on the African continent </li></ul><ul><li>New: WACS, ACE, Main One, Glo1, LION and EIG, SEACOM, TEAMS, EASSy, and the </li></ul><ul><li>Existing: SAT-3/WASC/SAFE and FLAG </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Crazy Times
  8. 8. <ul><li>$6bn in spending (circa R42bn) </li></ul><ul><li>Increase capacity from 250Gbps to 1.5Tbps (thanks Seacom) to 10Tbps </li></ul><ul><li>Over capacity? </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Capital Spigots are Flowing
  9. 9. Okay Fatty, so what is your prediction? <ul><li>By mid 2011 prices will have fallen by at least half again. </li></ul><ul><li>In rand terms, circa R10 per GB per month </li></ul><ul><li>Disclaimer: this is prediction is in my own personal capacity and does not represent IS’s view </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February
  10. 10. Greater transparency justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Greater Transparency
  11. 11. justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February
  12. 12. The pirate party <ul><li>The demand on networks is nothing short of phenomenal </li></ul><ul><li>AT&T’s network is broken because of it </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Video
  13. 13. Mobile ticketing <ul><li>Why use paper ticketing? </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile will increasingly replace the need for printed tickets </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Mobile Ticketing
  14. 14. Augmented Reality justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Augmented Reality
  15. 15. Media farms <ul><li>Taking your applications into The Cloud </li></ul><ul><li>The Cloud = Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Social Media is the paragon example of cloud computing </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Cloud Computing
  16. 16. <ul><li>No chance. Still the best system by far. </li></ul><ul><li>So what happened? </li></ul><ul><li>Bad frameworks – “rational investor” </li></ul><ul><li>Bad regulation – regulators didn’t take time to understand “credit derivatives” </li></ul><ul><li>No – not bad investment bankers. </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The fall of capitalism?
  17. 17. justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The rise of behavioural finance
  18. 18. Cold war with Angola? <ul><li>According to Stratfor, a global think tank, South Africa is at high risk of a cold war with Angola </li></ul><ul><li>Logic is that Angola’s oil wealth is now tapped and it is significant </li></ul><ul><li>Also, Angola increasingly appears a Chinese proxy </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Cold War with Angola?
  19. 19. Reinventing Fire <ul><li>We know how to save half of our oil and gas and three-quarters of our electricity at a cost that is a fraction of what we are paying now. </li></ul><ul><li>Amory Lovins </li></ul><ul><li>Rocky Mountain Institute co-founder, chairman and chief scientist </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Reinventing Fire
  20. 20. The World Cup <ul><li>“Grounds for optimism, citing conservative estimates of benefits at about R56bn, that could reach R80bn” </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Times </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The World Cup
  21. 21. Media farms <ul><li>Mass production of content </li></ul><ul><li>Reporting done by bots </li></ul><ul><li>Editorials will be the only paid for content </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Media Farms
  22. 22. Scarcity <ul><li>Overcapacity and abundance has fallen </li></ul><ul><li>“With cost of distribution relentlessly driving towards zero, Chris Anderson, has once again identified the next big thing” Schmidt, on Anderson’s book “Free” </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Scarcity
  23. 23. Food <ul><li>Cheap food is based on three things: </li></ul><ul><li>cheap oil, plentiful water and a constant weather pattern. </li></ul><ul><li>Even if you don't believe in global warming, the one point that you can't really argue is that the price of oil is going to go up, and the big food chain was built on $30 a barrel of oil not $130 </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Food
  24. 24. <ul><li>“people are increasingly neglecting their voicemails,” explains Streicher </li></ul><ul><li>Study by Sprint: people under the age of 30 are 4 times more likely to respond to an SMS within minutes than a voicemail </li></ul><ul><li>Over 30, twice as likely </li></ul><ul><li>Consumers opting for voice-to-text messages. </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Voicemail is broken
  25. 25. Call Centres vs. Contact Centres justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Call Centre vs. Contact Centre
  26. 26. geotagging “ check-in” – earn points – become the “mayor” justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February geotagging
  27. 27. Better measures than GDP? <ul><li>France’s “Joie de Vivre” Index </li></ul><ul><li>Intended to provide a better </li></ul><ul><li>Measure of well-being than </li></ul><ul><li>GDP </li></ul><ul><li>More countries looking at other measures of prosperity, such as the Triple Bottom Line (people, profits &planet) </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Better measure than GDP?
  28. 28. The pirate party <ul><li>Challenging “groupthink” on copyright laws </li></ul><ul><li>Believe copyright impinges on culture </li></ul><ul><li>Parties in 28 countries around the world </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The Pirate Party
  29. 29. Emerging Economies <ul><li>“Even if developed countries recover completely in 2010, emerging economies will account for 70 - 75% of the growth in global output ‘for the foreseeable future” </li></ul><ul><li>New York Times </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Emerging Economies
  30. 30. Emerging Economies <ul><li>“China’s growth as an economic superpower is increasingly correlated with that of Africa, on which it now relies for 25% of its oil imports, reports the” </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Mail </li></ul>justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Emerging Economies
  31. 31. justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February
  32. 32. justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Communications tools don't get socially interesting until they get technologically boring Clay Shirky, “Here Comes Everybody”
  33. 33. justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February
  34. 34. Questions
  35. 35. <ul><li>Thanks </li></ul><ul><li>@justinspratt </li></ul>
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