A Peek Around the Corner #heavychef

@justinspratt A Peek Around the Corner

Likely because I am not skinny 
“ don’t trust a skinny chef”
I work at Internet Solutions, so perhaps I have insight into bandwidth pricing
I have done a degree in economics and used to work for an investment bank, so perhaps I know stuff about the economy
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Why me?

justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Disclaimer

Well, it already has: Afrihost @ R22 per GB standard, R14 if you are a customer and top up
Already almost a 70% fall since launch of Seacom
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February So when the f*!k is bandwidth prices going to come down?

Yes, by international standards, SA is still over priced
Problem now: national “backhaul” (fat pipes that can distribute all the connectivity)
Mobile Operators, Neotel and DFA are laying down lots of fibre
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Okay, but it is still high, right?

14 Cables. Crikey.

Crazy Times
FOURTEEN cables landing on the African continent
New: WACS, ACE, Main One, Glo1, LION and EIG, SEACOM, TEAMS, EASSy, and the
Existing: SAT-3/WASC/SAFE and FLAG
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Crazy Times

$6bn in spending (circa R42bn)
Increase capacity from 250Gbps to 1.5Tbps (thanks Seacom) to 10Tbps
Over capacity?
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Capital Spigots are Flowing

Okay Fatty, so what is your prediction?
By mid 2011 prices will have fallen by at least half again.
In rand terms, circa R10 per GB per month
Disclaimer: this is prediction is in my own personal capacity and does not represent IS’s view
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February

Greater transparency justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Greater Transparency

The pirate party
The demand on networks is nothing short of phenomenal
AT&T’s network is broken because of it
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Video

Mobile ticketing
Why use paper ticketing?
Mobile will increasingly replace the need for printed tickets
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Mobile Ticketing

Augmented Reality justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Augmented Reality

Media farms
Taking your applications into The Cloud
The Cloud = Internet
Social Media is the paragon example of cloud computing
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Cloud Computing

No chance. Still the best system by far.
So what happened?
Bad frameworks – “rational investor”
Bad regulation – regulators didn’t take time to understand “credit derivatives”
No – not bad investment bankers.
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The fall of capitalism?

justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The rise of behavioural finance

Cold war with Angola?
According to Stratfor, a global think tank, South Africa is at high risk of a cold war with Angola
Logic is that Angola’s oil wealth is now tapped and it is significant
Also, Angola increasingly appears a Chinese proxy
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Cold War with Angola?

Reinventing Fire
We know how to save half of our oil and gas and three-quarters of our electricity at a cost that is a fraction of what we are paying now.
Amory Lovins
Rocky Mountain Institute co-founder, chairman and chief scientist
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Reinventing Fire

The World Cup
“Grounds for optimism, citing conservative estimates of benefits at about R56bn, that could reach R80bn”
Financial Times
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The World Cup

Media farms
Mass production of content
Reporting done by bots
Editorials will be the only paid for content
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Media Farms

Scarcity
Overcapacity and abundance has fallen
“With cost of distribution relentlessly driving towards zero, Chris Anderson, has once again identified the next big thing” Schmidt, on Anderson’s book “Free”
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Scarcity

Food
Cheap food is based on three things:
cheap oil, plentiful water and a constant weather pattern.
Even if you don't believe in global warming, the one point that you can't really argue is that the price of oil is going to go up, and the big food chain was built on $30 a barrel of oil not $130
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Food

“people are increasingly neglecting their voicemails,” explains Streicher
Study by Sprint: people under the age of 30 are 4 times more likely to respond to an SMS within minutes than a voicemail
Over 30, twice as likely
Consumers opting for voice-to-text messages.
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Voicemail is broken

Call Centres vs. Contact Centres justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Call Centre vs. Contact Centre

geotagging “ check-in” – earn points – become the “mayor” justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February geotagging

Better measures than GDP?
France’s “Joie de Vivre” Index
Intended to provide a better
Measure of well-being than
GDP
More countries looking at other measures of prosperity, such as the Triple Bottom Line (people, profits &planet)
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Better measure than GDP?

The pirate party
Challenging “groupthink” on copyright laws
Believe copyright impinges on culture
Parties in 28 countries around the world
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The Pirate Party

Emerging Economies
“Even if developed countries recover completely in 2010, emerging economies will account for 70 - 75% of the growth in global output ‘for the foreseeable future”
New York Times
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Emerging Economies

Emerging Economies
“China’s growth as an economic superpower is increasingly correlated with that of Africa, on which it now relies for 25% of its oil imports, reports the”
Financial Mail
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Emerging Economies

justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Communications tools don't get socially interesting until they get technologically boring Clay Shirky, “Here Comes Everybody”

Questions

Thanks
@justinspratt

A Peek Around the Corner #heavychef

by justin spratt on Feb 03, 2010

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