A Peek Around the Corner #heavychef
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A Peek Around the Corner #heavychef

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a high level look at the future of bandwidth and connectivity in south africa, cursory looks at some technology trends shaping the world and a brief glance at some macro economic trends

a high level look at the future of bandwidth and connectivity in south africa, cursory looks at some technology trends shaping the world and a brief glance at some macro economic trends

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A Peek Around the Corner #heavychef A Peek Around the Corner #heavychef Presentation Transcript

  • @justinspratt A Peek Around the Corner
    • Likely because I am not skinny 
      • “ don’t trust a skinny chef”
    • I work at Internet Solutions, so perhaps I have insight into bandwidth pricing
    • I have done a degree in economics and used to work for an investment bank, so perhaps I know stuff about the economy
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Why me?
  • justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Disclaimer View slide
    • Well, it already has: Afrihost @ R22 per GB standard, R14 if you are a customer and top up
    • Already almost a 70% fall since launch of Seacom
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February So when the f*!k is bandwidth prices going to come down? View slide
    • Yes, by international standards, SA is still over priced
    • Problem now: national “backhaul” (fat pipes that can distribute all the connectivity)
    • Mobile Operators, Neotel and DFA are laying down lots of fibre
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Okay, but it is still high, right?
  • 14 Cables. Crikey.
  • Crazy Times
    • FOURTEEN cables landing on the African continent
    • New: WACS, ACE, Main One, Glo1, LION and EIG, SEACOM, TEAMS, EASSy, and the
    • Existing: SAT-3/WASC/SAFE and FLAG
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Crazy Times
    • $6bn in spending (circa R42bn)
    • Increase capacity from 250Gbps to 1.5Tbps (thanks Seacom) to 10Tbps
    • Over capacity?
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Capital Spigots are Flowing
  • Okay Fatty, so what is your prediction?
    • By mid 2011 prices will have fallen by at least half again.
    • In rand terms, circa R10 per GB per month
    • Disclaimer: this is prediction is in my own personal capacity and does not represent IS’s view
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February
  • Greater transparency justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Greater Transparency
  • justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February
  • The pirate party
    • The demand on networks is nothing short of phenomenal
    • AT&T’s network is broken because of it
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Video
  • Mobile ticketing
    • Why use paper ticketing?
    • Mobile will increasingly replace the need for printed tickets
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Mobile Ticketing
  • Augmented Reality justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Augmented Reality
  • Media farms
    • Taking your applications into The Cloud
    • The Cloud = Internet
    • Social Media is the paragon example of cloud computing
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Cloud Computing
    • No chance. Still the best system by far.
    • So what happened?
    • Bad frameworks – “rational investor”
    • Bad regulation – regulators didn’t take time to understand “credit derivatives”
    • No – not bad investment bankers.
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The fall of capitalism?
  • justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The rise of behavioural finance
  • Cold war with Angola?
    • According to Stratfor, a global think tank, South Africa is at high risk of a cold war with Angola
    • Logic is that Angola’s oil wealth is now tapped and it is significant
    • Also, Angola increasingly appears a Chinese proxy
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Cold War with Angola?
  • Reinventing Fire
    • We know how to save half of our oil and gas and three-quarters of our electricity at a cost that is a fraction of what we are paying now.
    • Amory Lovins
    • Rocky Mountain Institute co-founder, chairman and chief scientist
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Reinventing Fire
  • The World Cup
    • “Grounds for optimism, citing conservative estimates of benefits at about R56bn, that could reach R80bn”
    • Financial Times
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The World Cup
  • Media farms
    • Mass production of content
    • Reporting done by bots
    • Editorials will be the only paid for content
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Media Farms
  • Scarcity
    • Overcapacity and abundance has fallen
    • “With cost of distribution relentlessly driving towards zero, Chris Anderson, has once again identified the next big thing” Schmidt, on Anderson’s book “Free”
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Scarcity
  • Food
    • Cheap food is based on three things:
    • cheap oil, plentiful water and a constant weather pattern.
    • Even if you don't believe in global warming, the one point that you can't really argue is that the price of oil is going to go up, and the big food chain was built on $30 a barrel of oil not $130
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Food
    • “people are increasingly neglecting their voicemails,” explains Streicher
    • Study by Sprint: people under the age of 30 are 4 times more likely to respond to an SMS within minutes than a voicemail
    • Over 30, twice as likely
    • Consumers opting for voice-to-text messages.
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Voicemail is broken
  • Call Centres vs. Contact Centres justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Call Centre vs. Contact Centre
  • geotagging “ check-in” – earn points – become the “mayor” justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February geotagging
  • Better measures than GDP?
    • France’s “Joie de Vivre” Index
    • Intended to provide a better
    • Measure of well-being than
    • GDP
    • More countries looking at other measures of prosperity, such as the Triple Bottom Line (people, profits &planet)
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Better measure than GDP?
  • The pirate party
    • Challenging “groupthink” on copyright laws
    • Believe copyright impinges on culture
    • Parties in 28 countries around the world
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February The Pirate Party
  • Emerging Economies
    • “Even if developed countries recover completely in 2010, emerging economies will account for 70 - 75% of the growth in global output ‘for the foreseeable future”
    • New York Times
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Emerging Economies
  • Emerging Economies
    • “China’s growth as an economic superpower is increasingly correlated with that of Africa, on which it now relies for 25% of its oil imports, reports the”
    • Financial Mail
    justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Emerging Economies
  • justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February
  • justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February Communications tools don't get socially interesting until they get technologically boring Clay Shirky, “Here Comes Everybody”
  • justin spratt – heavy chef – 2 nd of February
  • Questions
    • Thanks
    • @justinspratt