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The Future Of Social Gaming 10 Feb 2010 Justin Smith Europe Casual Connect Hamburg, Germany
 

The Future Of Social Gaming 10 Feb 2010 Justin Smith Europe Casual Connect Hamburg, Germany

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    The Future Of Social Gaming 10 Feb 2010 Justin Smith Europe Casual Connect Hamburg, Germany The Future Of Social Gaming 10 Feb 2010 Justin Smith Europe Casual Connect Hamburg, Germany Presentation Transcript

    • The Future of Social GamingEurope Casual Connect – Hamburg10 February 2010
      Justin Smith
      justin@insidenetwork.com
    • The Social Game Landscape
    • The Western Market
      2009: $490 million
      2010: $835 million
      Growth on every continent
    • Virtual Goods in Asia
      2008: $5 billion
      2009: $7 billion
      Source: +8*
    • The Big 3
      Zynga
      700+ employees
      $200+ million in 2009
      ~3x more DAU than #2
      Playfish
      250+ employees
      ~$75 million in 2009
      Acquired by EA 11/2009
      Playdom
      300+ employees
      ~$50 million in 2009
      #1 on MySpace
    • US Players
      CrowdStar
      Quick rise to #2 on Facebook by DAU
      RockYou
      Operates the largest ad network on Facebook as well
      Slide
      Was long time #1 by MAU (but not games), transformed business into virtual goods model
    • International Players
      Rekoo– Animal Paradise, Sunshine Ranch
      Elex– Happy Harvest
      Five Minutes – Happy Farm
      wooga– Brain Buddies
      6waves – Adopting a publisher model
    • The Developer Opportunity
      Facebook continues to grow around the world
      First “truly global” social network
      Business models converging on virtual goods
      Can rapidly spend, test, and iterate for revenue
      Some challenges lie ahead
      Market getting more crowded, network effects kicking in
    • Social Gaming Distribution
    • Facebook
      400 million users and counting – 70% of which are outside the United States
      Rapidly evolving Platform – new rules every 6 months
      Facebook Connect – bringing Facebook to every website and device
      Facebook Credits – coming soon
    • MySpace
      Used to be #1, now declining slowly
      Still #2 social gaming platform in the US
      Only the largest developers can afford to build cross-platform games
    • Global Social Networks
      Hi5
      Orkut
      Friendster
      Vkontakte
      QQ/Qzone
      Bebo
      VZ networks
      Maktoob
    • Twitter
      Is this a social gaming platform?
      I don’t think so.
    • Game Portals
      What is the value of your portal’s social graph vs. Facebook’s social graph?
    • Game Changers
    • Facebook Connect
      Now, the same social graph is on any website, platform, device (mobile!)
      Same viral channel access, less Facebook.com constraint
      What parts of the Internet never developed because the social graph wasn’t available?
    • Rise of Virtual Goods in the West
      Now the major revenue model for western social game developers
      Variety of direct payment methods
      Offers still portion of purchases, but declining
    • Rush of Competitors
      “Social media/widget” developers
      New startups
      Traditional publishers
      Casual game developers
      Asian developers
    • Monetization
    • Direct Payments Inside Social Games
      PayPal still very important
      Mobile increasingly important
      Asia with a commanding lead, Europe just behind, US just getting started
      Other alternative direct methods, like pre-paid cards, growing
      Zynga, Playfish, Playdom arriving in US retail Q4 2009
    • Performance Ads and the Offers Controversy
      Represent a minority of social game developer revenues – now smaller %
      Some ads were deceptive
      Self regulating pretty well, though platforms have most leverage
    • The 12-18 Month Horizon
    • Zynga
      From 0 to 10 million in 7 days – rinse and repeat
      Tough to defend against…
      The increasing value of cross promotion
      Smartest ad spenders behind LTV
    • Facebook’s Relationship with Developers
      Change is constant and expected
      2 weeks ago: Email sharing
      2 weeks out: The death of notifications
      What’s coming this year?
    • Changing Monetization Landscape
      Facebook Credits coming soon – but what will the rules be?
      Fees?
      Restrictions for other providers?
      Offers become less important
      Banner ads hanging around
    • Who will challenge Facebook?
      Is Facebook going to keep steam rolling social networks everywhere?
      Where will the carve-outs be, even where Facebook is far and away #1?
      Who is going to challenge Facebook’s social graph?
      Other games portals?
      Consoles, or device manufacturers?
    • 2010 and Beyond
      Facebook grows to 500, 600, 700 million…
      Virtual goods become “normal”
      International opportunities grow
      Who will be the next CrowdStar?
    • Focused on the Facebook platform and social gaming ecosystem