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Justin Smith State Social Gaming Industry Gdc 2010 San Francisco
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Justin Smith State Social Gaming Industry Gdc 2010 San Francisco






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Justin Smith State Social Gaming Industry Gdc 2010 San Francisco Justin Smith State Social Gaming Industry Gdc 2010 San Francisco Presentation Transcript

  • The State of Social GamingGDC - San Francisco9 March 2010
    Justin Smith
  • Focused on the Facebook platform and social gaming ecosystem
  • The Social Game Landscape
  • The Western Market
    2009: $490 million
    2010: $835 million
    Growth on every continent
  • Virtual Goods in Asia
    2008: $5 billion
    2009: $7 billion
    Source: +8*
  • The Big 3
    700+ employees
    $200+ million in 2009
    ~3x more DAU than #2
    250+ employees
    ~$75 million in 2009
    Acquired by EA 11/2009
    300+ employees
    ~$50 million in 2009
    #1 on MySpace
  • US Players
    Quick rise to #2 on Facebook by DAU
    Operates the largest ad network on Facebook as well
    Was long time #1 by MAU (but not games), transformed business into virtual goods model
  • The International Players
    Rekoo– Animal Paradise, Sunshine Ranch
    Elex– Happy Harvest
    Five Minutes – Happy Farm
    wooga– Brain Buddies
    6waves – Adopting a publisher model
  • The Developer Opportunity
    Facebook continues to grow around the world
    First “truly global” social network
    Business models converging on virtual goods
    Can rapidly spend, test, and iterate for revenue
    Some challenges lie ahead
    Market getting more crowded, network effects kicking in
  • Social Gaming Distribution
  • Facebook
    400 million users and counting – 70% of which are outside the United States
    Rapidly evolving Platform – new rules every 6 months
    Facebook Connect – bringing Facebook to every website and device
    Facebook Credits – coming soon
  • Facebook
  • Facebook
    • Africa: 10M
    • Asia: 70M
    • Europe: 130M
    • North America: 140M
    • South America: 35M
  • MySpace
    Used to be #1, now declining slowly
    Still #2 social gaming platform in the US
    Good ARPU, but only the largest developers can afford to build cross-platform games
  • Global Social Networks
    VZ networks
  • Twitter
    Is this a social gaming platform?
    I don’t think so.
  • Game Portals
    What is the value of your portal’s social graph vs. Facebook’s social graph?
  • Game Changers
  • Facebook Connect
    Now, the same social graph is on any website, platform, device (mobile!)
    Same identity and “viral channel” access, less Facebook.com constraint
    What parts of the Internet never developed because the social graph wasn’t available?
  • Rise of Virtual Goods in the West
    Now the major revenue model for western social game developers
    Variety of direct payment methods
    Offers still portion of purchases, but declining
  • Rush of Competitors
    “Social media/widget” developers
    New startups
    Traditional publishers
    Casual game developers
    Asian developers
  • Monetization
  • Direct Payments Inside Social Games
    PayPal still dominant
    Mobile increasingly important
    Asia with a commanding lead, Europe just behind, US just getting started
    Other alternative direct methods, like pre-paid cards, growing
    Zynga, Playfish, Playdom arriving in US retail Q4 2009
  • Performance Ads and the Offers Controversy
    Represent a minority of social game developer revenues – now smaller %
    Some ads were deceptive
    Self regulating pretty well, though platforms have most leverage
    Ultimately, developers need to get users monetizing directly pretty quickly
  • Increasing Competition
    Many new offer providers in the last 12 months
    Regional focus
    Ad networks bringing relationships
    Offer providers becoming payment aggregators
  • Organizing & Optimizing
    Monetization becoming horizontal in some multi-studio companies
    Some developers make multi-month content plans before releasing
    Virtual economy optimization is now a core competency
  • The 12-18 Month Horizon
  • The Big 1: Zynga
    From 0 to 10 million in 7 days – rinse and repeat
    Tough to defend against…
    The increasing value of cross promotion
    Smartest ad spenders behind LTV
    Could have more staff than Facebook in 2010
  • Facebook’s Relationship with Developers
    The only constant is change
    4 weeks ago: Email sharing
    2 weeks ago: The death of notifications
    What’s coming next month?
  • Changing Monetization Landscape
    Facebook Credits coming soon – but what will the rules be?
    Restrictions for other providers?
    Banner ads hanging around
  • Who will challenge Facebook?
    Is Facebook going to keep steam rolling social networks everywhere?
    Where will the carve-outs be, even where Facebook is far and away #1?
    Who is going to challenge Facebook’s social graph?
    Other games portals?
    Consoles, or device manufacturers?
  • 2010 and Beyond
    Facebook grows to 500, 600, 700 million…
    Virtual goods become “normal”
    International opportunities grow
    Who will be the next CrowdStar?
  • Focused on the Facebook platform and social gaming ecosystem