River Basin Management in the
Middle and Lower Zambezi in
Critical Periods
Daniel Ribeiro | Sílvia Dolores
JA _ Justiça Am...
Technical Details
Title
River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Publication
JA! Justiça...
2 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
Abstract
Floods have always been a part of the history of the Zambezi River but the benefits out...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 3
Acknowledgments
During the study we had the opportunity to meet and work with various instituti...
Abstract
Acknowledgments
List of Acronyms
I INTRODuCTION
Floods
Settlement Patterns
Settlement Patterns
Study Objectives
I...
III RESuLTS
1) Social Impacts – Means of Subsistence and Food Security
2) Resettlement Process
3) Responsibility in the Re...
6 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
I INTRODUCTION River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
The Z...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 7
I INTRODUCTIONRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Figure...
8 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
Health Issues
The change in settlement pattern that has made commu-
nities more vulnerable to m...
Identification and Description of Study Areas
The study focuses on the Zambezi Valley,more precisely
on the Lower Zambezi ...
10 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
II METHODOLOGY River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Meth...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 11
III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
1) Socia...
Another equally important and relevant fact was the real-
ization that all these communities have always been
breeders of ...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 13
III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
“During ...
14 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
“We wil...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 15
III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
time per...
16 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Figure ...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 17
III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
longer a...
18 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Accordi...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 19
III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Marromeu...
20 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Communi...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 21
III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
through ...
22 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
8) Clim...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 23
III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Figure 1...
24 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental
III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
The com...
JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 25
IV CONCLUSIONSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods
Curre...
River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011
River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011
River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011
River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011
River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011
River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011
River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011
River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011
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River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011

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Floods have always been a part of the history of the Zambezi River but the benefits outweigh the negative impacts of life on the river. Floods
bring sediments rich in nutrients, feed wetlands, clean the canals, tributaries and branches, and much more. In the past, the highly predictable
flooding regime of the Zambezi River allowed for the emergence of traditional practices and social systems that relied on and benefited from the
river's natural functioning

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River Basin Management of Zambezi 2011

  1. 1. River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Daniel Ribeiro | Sílvia Dolores JA _ Justiça Ambiental produced by | to | financed by | CAPA_ENG_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:30 Page 1
  2. 2. Technical Details Title River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Publication JA! Justiça Ambiental - FOE Mozambique By Daniel Ribeiro (MSc Ecology) and Silvia Dolores (BSc Biology) Field Team: Anabela Lemos, Mauro Pinto, and Sílvia Dolores Coordination Anabela Lemos For Oxfam Cover Image Mauro Pinto Revision Vanessa Cabanelas (BSc Biology) Graphic Layout & Production Pedro Morgado Free Distribution Maputo, January 2011. River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:14 Page 1
  3. 3. 2 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental Abstract Floods have always been a part of the history of the Zambezi River but the benefits outweigh the negative impacts of life on the river. Floods bring sediments rich in nutrients, feed wetlands, clean the canals, tributaries and branches, and much more. In the past, the highly predictable flooding regime of the Zambezi River allowed for the emergence of traditional practices and social systems that relied on and benefited from the river's natural functioning. The dams along the Zambezi modified this natural flow through the release of stored water to generate power during the dry season, using the high flow levels to induce flooding in the summer to fill the reservoir, and at the same time prepare for the low flows of the dry season. The regu- lated flow of the Zambezi has been drying out wet areas previously fed by the floodwaters of the Zambezi. Dry channels and branches along the Zambezi are becoming increasingly common, many of which have become completely disconnected from the main river channel. The river is no longer a river of multiple channels and side branches that were constantly changing, instead becoming a river with a single main channel. The water released by dams erodes the banks and deepens the river bed due to the need to balance sediment content. The now dry flood plains have serious consequences for biodiversity and populations of large animals are not the only ones at risk. There was a reduction in the amount of vari- ous herbaceous species of the wetlands in these flood plains, allowing for the invasion of woody savannah. The remaining herbivores can no longer control the growth of plants further altering the vegetation. The present flow regime in the Lower Zambezi has also caused major changes in settlement patterns of communities living along the river. The low flow regime of summer and the absence of floods promoted the permanent settlement of the communities on the banks, sandbars, and floodplains that were previously occupied only seasonally. The settlements in these areas were a major reason why the floods of 2000-2001 were so severe with more than 700 people killed in one year and more than 500,000 homeless. Compared with the past, there were more than 10 floods during the twentieth century which exceeded the magnitude of the floods of 2000-2001 in the Zambezi Delta region. Many of these floods did not result in loss of life or in significant economic losses. Cahora Bassa’s capacity to contain most of the seasonal floods caused the communities along the Zambezi to lose their memory of the floods, making communities incapable of managing the risks. Floods are unpre- dictable now as only the largest floods are not retained by Cahora Bassa. The lack of warning and the irregularity of floods have made the commu- nities along the Zambezi much more vulnerable to the negative impacts of floods. Unfortunately the current solution to resettle at-risk communities in safer areas has had negative impacts on their lives. Many of the surveyed communities are resettled in improved houses, masonry, most of them have a school and health clinic nearby, but in terms of food security they are in worse conditions than before. Their survival still depends on the same activities and the same resources; fertile soils and water resources. Resettled communities are now far from the river and access to water is a problem that has arisen with resettlement. They are extremely poor populations with no other source of income so as to ensure regular minimum wages. For the communities still residing along the river, the problems of food insecurity are also aggravated by the dam discharges during the dry sea- son. Cahora Bassa regularly discharges stored water for hydropower generation during the dry season at the request of influential users such as those involved in plantations of cane sugar or large barges. Discharges occur more often during the winter when the water flow is low and the major users are more demanding. Unfortunately, it is also at this time that agriculture in floodplains is more intense and when the dam dis- charges flood these regions there are large losses. All communities interviewed referred to the constant “uncontrolled flooding”, during the dry season, as the main factor that has come to change their life and further impoverishes their families and community. There were regular reports of loss, mostly crops, with losses reported all the way to the Marromeu region. Current discharges do not take into account the needs of all users of the Basin and changes are made according to the extraordinary demands of the large users. The management has not been a participatory process, local communities living in areas close to the river banks are without a voice, their needs are not taken into account, nor their time of sowing and time taken harvesting, and their rights are not respected. The role of ARA-Zambezi is not clear; most users of the Basin do not distinguish between the roles and responsibilities of Cahora Bassa (HCB) and the ARA- Zambezi. The main function of the ARA-Zambezi, coordinating, is not effective and this is reflected in the malfunctioning of the flood warning system and is compounded by weak policies and the limited capacity of the coordinating bodies. The hydrological model currently in use is not fully being taken advantage of and all the necessary data are not included resulting in poor accuracy and short lead time for decision making and communication with the Committees of Risk Management Disaster. Excessive regulation of water combined with the mismanagement of the competent bodies leads to the livelihoods of communities being con- stantly placed at risk and making them more vulnerable to the impacts of flooding. By contrast the work done by the National Institute of Disas- ter Management (INGC) has been to minimize major disasters. However, it is always better to be safe than prevention is always better than cure and according to the results of the climate change model, the difficulties currently faced by communities will be exacerbated, so there is a great need for efficient and sustainable management which takes into account the needs of all users alike. River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:14 Page 2
  4. 4. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 3 Acknowledgments During the study we had the opportunity to meet and work with various institutions and individuals who have contributed positively to this study so that it could be successfully accomplished. Whether this contribution was in the form of valuable information or logistical support provided, to all these contributors we show our recognition and appreciation: We wish to emphasize in particular the Administrators of Mutarara and Marromeu, Dr. Antonio Matucho, who at the time represented the Adminis- trator of Tambara, for their availability, the informality with which we were received, and the information provided; To all the interviewed communities, for their hospitality, manner of reception particularly for its genuineness, and for all that we were able to ab- sorb and learn; At Cahora Bassa dam, to Dr. Rosaque Guale in particular, for the information provided and effort made to do so, since it was not possible to inter- view her personally due to overlapping agendas of those involved, the information provided a good basis of understanding on the current situa- tion of the management of the reservoir; To the ARA – Zambeze for always receiving us with their loyal hospitality; To Dr. Patrocínio of the Zambezi Planning Office, Dr. José Argola of the WWF in Marromeu, and Mr. Guripa and all other staff who received us at the National Institute of Disaster Management for their availability, informality and information provided; The hospitality of Magariro, in Tambara, their staff were always available and helpful to the JA! field team, especially to Mr. Felix for his unique- ness; A special thanks to the “Ambassadors of Mutarara”: Amarildo Leite and Alberto Pinto for their untiring readiness, willingness and resources avail- able, providing a good working environment, companionship and always opening doors in all the communities visited, making us feel very wel- come and like part of the great family of this region. It was a pleasure! Our sincere thanks must also go to Suzanne and Giovanni of Oxfam Intermon of Marromeu for making their contacts and some of their facilities available for meetings, and for their hospitality. Last but not least, to the funder and organisation for which this study was designed, Oxfam, a big thank you for the: opportunities, experiences and participatory learning that will always be an asset to the organizational and personal development of all those involved. List of Acronyms ANE – Administração Nacional de Estradas (National Roads Administration) ARA-Zambeze – Administração Regional de Águas do Zambeze (Zambeze Regional Water Administration) ARA – Centro – Administração Regional de Águas da Zona Centro (Regional Water Administration – Central Region) CCM3 – Community Climate Model CENOE – Centro Nacional de Operações de Emergência (National Centre for Emergency Operations) CLGRC – Comités Locais de Gestão de Risco e Calamidades (Local Committees for Risk and Disaster Management) EOC – Emergency Operations Centre DNA – Direção Nacional de Águas (National Water Directorate) DRIFT – Downstream Response to Imposed Flow Transformation DWAF - Department of Water Affairs of Zambia EDM – Electricidade de Moçambique (Electricity of Mozambique) EPDA – Estudo de pré-viabilidade ambiental (Environmental Pre-Feasibility Study) FIPAG – Fundo de Investimento e Património de Abastecimento de Água GPZ – Gabinete Plano de Zambeze (Zambeze Planning Office) HCB – Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric Plant) INGC – Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (National Institute of Disaster Management) INIP – Instituto Nacional de Investigação pesqueira (National Institute for Fisheries Research) JOTC – Joint Operational Technical Committee KNBPS – Kariba North Bank Power Station KSBPC – Kariba South Bank Power Station MICOA – Ministério para a Coordenação Acção Ambiental (Ministry for Environmental Action Coordination) MOPH – Ministério das Obras Públicas e Habitação (Ministry of Public Works and Housing) NGO – Non Governmental Organisation CSO – Civil Society Organisations Projecto REABDESC – Projecto de reabilitação dos descarregadores da barragem (Project for the rehabilitation of the dam spillways) SAC – Sistema de Aviso de Cheias (Flood Warning System) SARCOF – Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum WWF – World Wildlife Fund ZESCO – Zambia Electricity Supply Company ZINWA – Zimbabwe National Water Authority ZRA – Zambezi River Authority Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:14 Page 3
  5. 5. Abstract Acknowledgments List of Acronyms I INTRODuCTION Floods Settlement Patterns Settlement Patterns Study Objectives II METHODOLOGy 1) Identification and Description of Study Areas 2) Chronology 3) Methods CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................................................................pag.02 ....................................................................................................................................................................................pag.03 ...............................................................................................................................................................................pag.03 .........................................................................................................................................................................................pag.06 ..............................................................................................................................................................................................pag.06 ...................................................................................................................................................................pag.07 .............................................................................................................................................................................pag.08 ........................................................................................................................................................................pag.08 ..................................................................................................................................................................................pag.09 ........................................................................................................................pag.09 ....................................................................................................................................................................................pag.09 ..........................................................................................................................................................................................pag.10 Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:14 Page 4
  6. 6. III RESuLTS 1) Social Impacts – Means of Subsistence and Food Security 2) Resettlement Process 3) Responsibility in the Regulation of the River Flow 4) Environmental Impacts 5) Hydrology 6) Hydrological Forecast Model Used 7) Flood Early Warning System Communication Scheme between the Various Sectors and Players 8) Climatic Changes IV CONCLuSIONS V RECOMMENDATIONS VI CONSTRAINTS VII BIBLIOGRAPHy VIII APPENDICES ...................................................................................................................................................................................................pag.11 ...............................................................................................pag.11 ............................................................................................................................................................pag.12 ........................................................................................................................pag.14 ..............................................................................................................................................................................pag.15 ..............................................................................................................................................................................................pag.16 .....................................................................................................................................pag.17 ....................................................................................................................................................pag.18 ................................................................................................pag.20 ...........................................................................................................................................................................pag.22 .................................................................................................................................................................................pag.25 ..............................................................................................................................................................................pag.26 ...........................................................................................................................................................................pag.28 ...........................................................................................................................................................................................pag.29 .............................................................................................................................................................................................pag.31 Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 5
  7. 7. 6 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental I INTRODUCTION River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods The Zambezi River is vital to the development of Mozam- bique,feeding life into one of the most productive and bio- logically diverse tropical lowlands in Africa. This river is 2,660km long and drains seven countries and has a total drainage area of 1,570,000km2.(16,19) This makes it the fourth largest river system in Africa and the largest flow- ing into the Indian Ocean.(16) The flow of water from the Zambezi River can reach 22,000m3/s.(15) The area of the Lower Zambezi in Mozambique is the largest delta in East Africa and is used directly by about 2.8 million people, mostly peasants.(31) This region has a very diverse land- scape,alternating between narrow gorges to areas of mo- bile sand banks to branch channels,and finally ending in a tributary coastline 290 km wide that forms a delta of 18,000km2.(2,16,20) The Valley of the Lower Zambezi func- tions around the seasonal flooding of the Zambezi River.(4,14,25) As in all ecosystems,the system of the Zambezi is the product of thousands and thousands of years of evo- lution,and the floods form a vital factor for its operation. Since the most ancient cultural practices,such as flood re- cession agriculture and the synchronisation and biologi- cal dependence on ecosystems,floods are the essence of health in the past,present and future of the Zambezi valley. (4,5,6,10,16,23,24,25,29) Floods Reports of flooding in the Zambezi River,dating back to 1830,are common in the oral history of the people of the Delta region. Floods bring sediments rich in nutrients, provide water for dry floodplains,wash bodies of stagnant water,and clean the river canals,tributaries and branches.(14,16,23) Two major floods prior to the construc- tion of the Kariba Dam were frequently reported. The longest floods occurred in 1952,locally known as Sena Cheia M'bomane (the flood that destroyed everything).(25) In 1958,the last year before the Kariba Dam began to regu- late the flow of the Zambezi,other large floods took place known as N'sasira Cheia (the flood that forced people to live on top of anthills).(25) Since the construction of Kariba Dam unusual patterns of flooding have frequently been re- ported. In 1969,the water level remained above the flood level for 222 days from early January until mid-August.(25) This atypical pattern of flooding was the result of pro- longed discharges by Kariba during the dry season. The inhabitants of the area refer to these strange floods in the dry season as Nabwariri Cheia (water coming from the ground). After the Cahora Bassa dam,floods are described as being very irregular in terms of period,magnitude,du- ration,frequency,and the rise and fall levels of water.(25) The catastrophic floods of 1978 are described as Cheia Madeya (the flood that wiped out many coastal people and forced them to settle in the highlands).(25) The Cahora Bassa opened the eight floodgates and the emergency floodgate in quick succession during the height of the floods,and many of those who inhabited the floodplains were unable to flee to the highlands in time.(25) Forty-five people died and more than 100,000 people were displaced. In 1989 discharges from Cahora Bassa rapidly increased, from one floodgate on 6 February to five floodgates on 12 February to prevent the dam filling up too much.(25) Flash floods caused considerable damage to the settlements that had returned to the plains of the Delta,and are remem- bered locally as Cheia Cassussa because the water levels rose so quickly that there was no time to escape.(25) By reducing the amount of sediment carried in the river, the river bed and sandbanks are washing away.(16) Some people close to the Mopeia observed that the Cua Cua channel is deeper than before,and that the sands are now deposited on land and reduce soil fertility. In some visited places where they have suffered severe erosion of agricul- tural land,such as the location of Chipwazo in the district of Caia,the local population have planted “maque- ngueres”,a special plant with many roots that acts as a bar- rier to soil erosion during floods. Most people think the river has not changed in colour or smell. Respondents also reported increased levels of soil erosion along the river channel,and often blame the management of Cahora Bassa for these changes. In addition to the large natural floods that are beyond the Figure 1: Mark up to where the water rose in the latest floods, Nhane Commu- nity, Marromeu, photograph by Anabela Lemos Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 6
  8. 8. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 7 I INTRODUCTIONRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Figure 2: Images of fields flooded by the October 2003 discharge: Boromir, Tete (100 km downstream of Cahora Bassa) (left), and Sinjale, Tete, where the owner, Mr. Tomas Ernesto, on his lost crops (about 300 km downstream from Cahora Bassa) (right). control of Cahora Bassa,small unpredictable floods during the dry season are exacerbating food insecurity along the Zambezi. Cahora Bassa regularly discharges water stored for hydroelectric power generation during the dry season at the request of influential users such as for sugar cane plantations or large barges.(25) The largest discharges usu- ally occur during winter when water flow is low and the major users are more demanding. Unfortunately,it is also at this time that agriculture in floodplains is more intense, and when the dam discharges flood these regions there are large losses. On previous visits to communities in the Zambezi valley,there were regular reports of the planta- tions,with losses up to the Marromeu region. Sometimes the crops were lost due to minor flooding in the dry sea- son,only one or two weeks before the expected harvest (Fig. 2). If communities had knowledge of these small floods or if these discharges were predictable,they could do their harvesting in time or they could benefit from these small floods. Currently,these discharges are only in- creasing the problems of food insecurity along the Zam- bezi. Settlement Patterns In the past,the highly predictable flooding regime of the Zambezi River allowed for the emergence of settlement patterns that were in sync with the natural functioning of the River.(12,25) The regulated flow regime now present in the Lower Zambezi,has caused major changes to the set- tlement patterns of communities living along the River.(12,25) The lower flow in the summer and the absence of floods promoted the permanent settlement of the banks,sandbars and flood plains that were previously oc- cupied only seasonally.(12,28) These settlements in these areas were one of the main reasons why the floods of 2000-2001 were so severe,with more than 700 people killed in one year and more than 500,000 home- less.(3,12,13,17,26,27) These numbers could have been much worse were it not for the rapid and extensive rescue opera- tions by South Africa and other countries. Compared with the past,there were more than 10 floods during the 20th century that exceeded the magnitude of the floods of 2000-2001 in the Zambezi Delta region.(12) Many of these did not result in loss of life or in significant economic losses.(13,28) The capacity of Cahora Bassa to con- tain most of the floods caused the communities along the Zambezi to lose their memory of floods. This means that communities are unable to manage the risks,floods are unpredictable now as only the largest floods are not re- tained by Cahora Bassa. Even if the water coming into the reservoir is greater than the water going out of Cahora Bassa Dam,their past flow patterns have made the com- munities along the Zambezi much more vulnerable to the negative impacts of floods. Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 7
  9. 9. 8 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental Health Issues The change in settlement pattern that has made commu- nities more vulnerable to major flooding and increased the number of people directly affected by severe flooding also has serious health implications. During the floods of 2000 more than 500,000 people were displaced and this placed large numbers of people in refugee camps with in- adequate sanitation,food,and water supply.(13,17) These con- ditions have caused major health problems,such as cholera,typhoid fever,polio,hepatitis,and other gastroin- testinal diseases. Usually the main cause of disease in developing countries tends to be water-related diseases. For example,both malaria-carrying mosquitoes and freshwater snails trans- mit schistosomiasis and are both found in stagnant water. Major floods serve to move the bodies of stagnant water. This not only increases the water quality of water bodies and replenishes the groundwater,but also tends to reduce the productivity of vectors such as mosquitoes. These floods also increase the populations of fish that feed on these vectors,further decreasing their populations. In areas where water bodies are completely dry,water-re- lated diseases were also significantly decreased. However, this has forced the communities in these dry areas to be more dependent on the Zambezi River for bathing,drink- ing,and other domestic activities,leading to a settlement closer to the river (increased risk of flooding),increasing their exposure to many pathogens,which has been pointed out as being one of the reasons for many crocodile attacks. Study Objectives The phenomenon of flooding is already well known in the lower Zambezi. Several examples are reported over the years,where loss of life and property is the sum total ac- quired. Management,planning,and an early warning sys- tem are factors inherent to this situation. This study’s objectives include: 1) To evaluate the effectiveness of planning between the various institutions involved in the process of taking ac- tion deemed appropriate like the warning of invasion of water on agricultural fields as well as loss of human lives; 2) To determine the extent to which people living in areas close to the banks of the Zambezi Basin susceptible to flooding are informed and made aware about the issues involved with the HCB discharges,like the right that citi- zens and communities have as well as the need for com- munities to participate in this process; 3) To diagnose weaknesses / capabilities of the mathemati- cal hydrological forecasting model used in the prediction of floods in the Zambezi Basin in terms of accuracy and lead time (hydrometric data) and their connection in com- munication with the Local Disaster Risk Management; 4) Qualitatively evaluate the impact of the destruction of food crops resulting from flooding of the Zambezi Basin, and finally; 5) To produce a report containing the analysis of data col- lected,the results,conclusions and recommendations of the study outlining the actions and activities of priority aimed at future advocacy actions. I INTRODUCTION River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Figure 3: Bauaze School, Marromeu. Photograph by Anabela Lemos Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 8
  10. 10. Identification and Description of Study Areas The study focuses on the Zambezi Valley,more precisely on the Lower Zambezi downstream of Cahora Bassa,in- cluding the provinces of Tete,Manica,and Sofala. The sites visited were chosen based on the characteristics of the area and taking into account the extreme vulnera- bility of local communities to prolonged droughts and constant floods. These are communities that are directly dependent on water as a resource for living based on sub- sistence agriculture and small scale fishing - activities which ensure their sustainability. Tambara (Manica) and Mutarara (Tete) share very similar features,they both have a fairly dry climate,their average annual rainfall ranges from 500 to 800mm in the period of one year between November and March of the following year. The potential evapotranspiration,on average,is around 1,200 to 1,400 mm and the average annual temper- ature is 26.5 º C with a maximum of 32.5 º C and a mini- mum of 20.5 º C. The high temperature conditions aggravated by poor rainfall in these regions have in- creased dependency and shortage of water needed for agriculture and crop development. Given the direct de- pendence of these communities on this resource for local characteristics and distribution of communities along the river,they have been widely affected by the floods and are often left isolated,losing their crops,their seeds for the fol- lowing season,cattle and other small goods they may pos- sess. Many of the communities visited are now resettled and are not in imminent danger of losing their homes and property,but are far from the places where they carry out their activities,often without access to water,and thus the sustainability of their situation is at greater risk. Marromeu,in Sofala Province,is a district with very differ- ent characteristics but which also features the same type of vulnerability to floods and prolonged droughts. With 79 rivers and streams with permanent water courses,Mar- romeu has a humid tropical climate at all sites,with two seasons per year,including winter,from April to August, JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 9 II METODOLOGIARiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods II METHODOLOGY and summer during the remaining months. The average annual rainfall is about 910mm,while the av- erage annual potential evapotranspiration is about 1.574mm. Most rainfall occurs mainly during the period of December to March,varying greatly in quantity and distri- bution during the year or from year to year. The average annual temperature is in the order of 24.0 º C. The annual mean maximum and minimum are 32.1 and 16.º C respec- tively. Given the strong influence of watercourses in the district,it is also often at risk of flooding and affected by these as well. It is a district known for its richness in terms of agricultural production once exploited and now its pop- ulations are under constant risk of these floods,losing their crops,property and income source. The communi- ties live in constant isolation due to flooding and,in addi- tion to their other losses,the constant stress of an imminent flood increases their vulnerability. Chronology This study was drawn up between 20 September 2010 and January 2011. The fieldwork was conducted in two stages from 21-25 September and a second stage from 4-16 Octo- ber 2010. In the first stage the study began in a community near Mphanda Nkuwa where they interviewed some members of a local association,Voices of the Zambezi,following the communities of Chirodzi and M'sarángué in the period 21- 25 September. From 4-6 October,in a second stage,the re- search team initially remained in the city of Tete to visit some institutions of interest which have their headquar- ters there,as well as a visit to a town nearby in the Boroma community (Table 1). From there on 6-8 October,Tambara in Manica Province was visited where questionnaires were also conducted with Macambira and Sabet communities. After that Mutarara,Tete,was visited from 9-11 October where questionnaires were conducted in Mutarara itself, as well as Sucamiala,Catchaço,and Baué. Then the province of Sofala was visited on 12 October,pass- ing through Caia where members belonging to the com- munities of Chamdimba and Inhampunga were interviewed,and finally Marromeu,where the communi- ties of Nhane,Bauaze,and Jiwa were visited,staying for four days from 12-15 October. Province Tete Manica Sofala District Tete Mutarara Tambara Caia Marromeu Community Boroma Mphanda Nkuwa Chirodzi Catchaço Baué Tambara Sabeta Macamba Chandimba Inhampunga Nhane Bauaze Jiwa Table 1. Study Area, visited communities Sucamiala M'sanángué Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 9
  11. 11. 10 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental II METHODOLOGY River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Methods The following methods were used in this study: a) Bibliographical research and revision; b) Structured interviews,by way of questionnaires previ- ously formulated (questionnaires included in appendices); c)Direct observation; d) Modelling scenarios of climatic change. The modelling of climate change scenarios was done using the database of WorldClim which includes "layers" of global climate data in great detail. The data can be used to map and make spatial models in GIS. The database is used in several scientific studies and analysis and review of it is available in several articles,including,Hijmans,RJ, SE Cameron,JL Parra,PG Jones and A. Jarvis,2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965- 1978. The climatic database was imported into DIVA-GIS (free on the website: http://www.diva-gis.org) for special analy- sis under the component Bioclim using NCAR (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ cms/ccm3 /) Community Cli- mate Model (Community Climate Model - CCM3) in order to calculate the predictions of climate modelling and de- termine possible future scenarios. The NCAR CCM3 is a stable model,efficient,well documented,and has a very advanced system of atmospheric circulation usually de- signed for climate research. In the analysis data from 2007 was used as the representa- tive year of the current climate given the high level of ac- curacy and data available. The modelling was carried out until 2050 so that the changes and possible scenarios could have a detailed and clear graphical representation. The modelling for shorter periods would not have a simple graphical presentation of analysis and would only be pos- sible to identify the most extreme changes. At each site visited local authorities were consulted,at a Government level the Administrators (in the case of the Capital Districts) were consulted,except Caia,where a group of fishermen belonging to the communities of Chandimba and Inhamponga were interviewed. In local communities,the Secretary of the neighbourhood,com- munity leader,or chief were always present to respect the tradition,protocol,and hierarchy established at the site. In the case of local communities the utmost was done,suc- cessfully,to integrate all the classes representing the com- munity; young,old,farmers,fishermen,and other existing crafts,with special attention to the integration of women given their role and sensitivity within the family and the community. A total of 15 communities were interviewed which in- cluded about 214 people,13 institutions (Government and Private),and an individual count corresponding to a total of 228 people,providing for one individual per institution, where respondents must represent and defend the inter- ests of this institution. In this light,it may be said that the issues presented in this study correspond to the questions and problems experienced by the communities inter- viewed,which includes at least 62 123 people,according to the total number of people who constitute the communi- ties provided by some community leaders interviewed (Table 1 Appendices). The result was great and the working group had no prob- lem with being received into the community,filling out their questionnaires,and in most cases the results ex- ceeded expectations,approaching more and more people as they returned from their activities,actively participat- ing,giving their opinions,and including input and recom- mendations. The availability and informality of the Administrators was evident in all provincial capitals which helped a lot in this study since the field work was not rigidly scheduled and depended on the permanence of the group in each of the locations,the number of locations to visit,the distance between these,and the access roads and means of transport available locally. Their contribution with the suggestion to visit local communities that have most suffered the impact of floods,was extremely impor- tant because in addition to those already identified,they contributed importantly in view of their experience. The group was almost always accompanied by an inter- preter,who spoke the local language and when not,the community undertook to appoint and provide someone else who they trusted to interpret where Portuguese was not enough. Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 10
  12. 12. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 11 III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods 1) Social Impacts – Means of Subsistence and Food Security All 15 interviewed communities referred to the “uncon- trolled flooding”,which is constant and outside the rainy season,as being the main factor that has come to change their lives and exacerbate the poverty of their families and community. According to the interviewed communities, flash floods due to the large discharges of the HCB during the dry season over past years continues to occur and with increasing frequency. The situation worsened between 1997 and1998 and has increased dramatically in 2001 - 2003 until now. “Before the construction of HCB floods were periodic,but after the dam was built the situation changed. In recent years the situation has gotten worse,we want to know what's going on,nobody can tell us,everything is already out of control!” The population is now even more impov- erished,hungrier still and uncontrolled floods are to blame. The situation has been constant since 2007 (Mu- tarara,Baue Community). “In 2008 we still managed to take something out of the ground on the farm,in 2009 and 2010 everything was ru- ined by floods. Before,in November,the river rose with the rain,now in January,July,October,every year there are floods.” (Tambara,Macambira Community). An example of this was the flood in June 2010 that,accord- ing to those interviewed,was catastrophic,where commu- nities close to the river banks lost everything they had planted,some animals such as goats and chickens,among other small possessions,and it even reached Marromeu and Chemba. There were a number of respondents who attributed the floods of this time to the discharges of HCB, which was instructed to increase flow for the ferry,previ- ously operating in Caia,so it could get to Tete,since Caia was no longer useful upon the inauguration of the Emilio Guebuza Bridge. Among the respondents are the commu- nities of Chandimba and Inhampunga of the district of Figure 4: Interview with a school teacher from the Macamba Community, Tambara District. Photo by Anabela Lemos Caia,the Project Coordinator of World Vision of Mutarara, and the Administrator of Marromeu. “In June ferries needed to go between Caia and Tete,but after the Guebuza Bridge opened ferries were no longer needed in Caia. Thus,the flow rate increased and the fer- ries went up.” (Mutarara,World Vision). All 15 interviewed communities reported that their liveli- hoods come from subsistence agriculture and fishing,and that in Nhane and Bauase,both in the district of Mar- romeu,other activities were also reported such as pottery, sculpture,and hunting of small animals like the “thin leg and Vonda”. In the communities of Sucamiala,Mutarara District,and two others located near Mphanda Nkuwa live- stock production is stronger. These are extremely poor populations,with no other source of income that ensures them minimum and regu- lar wages. Of the 15 interviewed communities only one, Bauaze,referred to the sale of surplus product,in this case sesame,from their agricultural activities,but that does not always happen and has not happened in recent years. All interviewed communities referred to the fact that be- fore this situation of worsening poverty they all possessed surplus,almost every year. “Since 2001 when the flood situation worsened,every year there are floods and they remain a long time now. This year from February to August it was always flooded,but before the floods remained just one day. Before I could even make some revenue on the sale of the surplus,but now,especially since the construction of the Guebuza Bridge,the situation has worsened due to erosion worsen- ing (“gomola”).” (Caia,Communities of Chandimba and Inhampunga) “We do not want business projects,we want to harvest our crops” (Mutarara,Sucamiala Community). However,in recent years what they could harvest in time (before the floods) from the farm was not enough to feed their families,some have even said that in the last year they have already missed three sowing seasons,one of them done out of despair because they had lost the two normal sowing seasons (Community Boroma). The same community also said that they no longer had anything to eat or to plant. The last can of seeds had already been eaten due to not having anything else to eat. Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 11
  13. 13. Another equally important and relevant fact was the real- ization that all these communities have always been breeders of chickens,cattle,goats,and pigs,the majority on a small scale,but each family owned a few heads. Today there is very little livestock that can be seen in communi- ties due to the shortage of seeds and food to sustain them and also because the communities are restricted to farms in the lowlands where they end up leaving their animals due to water and food scarcity which does not constitute a limiting factor and where they can always naturally fertil- ize their fields. However,the ferocity and frequency of floods that have been ongoing in recent years do not give time for the prior collection of animals,since this place is no longer forms part of the residential area of communi- ties,leaving fewer animals each time. “Before,floods lasted for short periods of time. We built a poor hut on Muchem hill and when the water went down two days later we returned to our homes. Many of the farm products were not totally ruined. Nowadays floods are sudden,last longer,and you lose everything.” (Mar- romeu,Nhane and Jiwa Communities) “Before,it was possible to remove goods and people before the floods. But now the floods are violent,come quickly, and so for this reason people do not dedicate themselves to raising cattle,because they lose all the cattle when they are caught unprepared. The remaining water causes dis- eases in places,before when there were floods people would go out for short periods of time because they could soon return,now they don’t because of the type of dis- charge and the long period the water remains,these floods also bring diseases and epidemics. They only warn us of the number of gates that will open not how much the flow will increase.” (Mutarara,Catchaço community) This constitutes another point to add to the risk of food se- curity in these communities,in this case the source of pro- tein. It is important to add at this point that fishing as a source of protein is also in danger. The three groups of male respondents whose main economic activity is fishing in Tambara and in Caia (belonging to the communities of Chamdimba and Inhampunga) and in Marromeu (Jiwa) re- ported that fishing in recent years has not been as abun- dant. “Before there was a lot of fish,there was the time of spawn- ing and of breeding,now everything is unregulated.” (Caia, Communities of Chandimba and Inhampunga) This may relate to changes in the river,due to constant un- regulated flooding (a factor indicated by the three groups of fishermen as the likely perpetrator of fish distur- bances),considering the disturbances in the river alter the balance of the ichthyological communities (fish),alter the ecosystem,and the conditions of spawning,fertilization and the nursery of young fish and consequently their pro- ductivity. The strength of the currents caused by floods is also taken by communities as a factor of imbalance be- cause the existing eggs and small fish are washed away. “Before there were a lot of fish and there were also fewer fishermen because there were more jobs. Before,life was better then,unregulated floods came and worsened the lives of our families.” (Marromeu,Jiwa Community) The conflict of interest in this basin is a fact,the integra- tion of all the issues relating to its management is not at all an easy task,but the ever-growing number of recorded floods together with the communities outside of the rainy season,with no apparent meteorological reason and where the sudden interests of others are increasingly im- posed on the basic needs and survival of all others. 2) Resettlement Process According to various interviewed institutions like the ARA-Zambezi,the HCB (via telephone conversation),and the INGC,the concern of the impacts caused by floods has been addressed through the resolution to remove all or the largest possible number of communities from the banks of the river that could flood,resettling the commu- nities in places where the river flood water does not reach. Much of this work has already been completed over the last few years: Sabet,Macambira,Muzungos,Capandge,in the District of Tambara; Catchaço,Baue,Charro,Vila Nova da Fronteira,Sucamiala,Conga,in the District of Mutarara, and Chandimba and Inhampunga in Caia,among others are examples. However,the conditions considered or de- fined as priorities at the outset do not always seem to sat- isfy the populations or meet their basic needs. 12 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Figure 5: Breakfast of a family of the Nhane Community, Marromeu. Photo by Silvia Dolores Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 12
  14. 14. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 13 III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods “During the rainy season roads are all cut,sometimes we have to walk 40km,no cars pass,a school has been under construction since 2007,so we have no school (building) and when it rains it is a problem.” (Tambara,Macamba Community) Given the direct dependence of these communities on water resources not only to satisfy their basic needs,like being able to develop their activities in subsistence,but the location of agriculture and fishing next to the river is essential because only then can they earn their livelihood. The vast majority of the population that is living in these resettled communities used to live on the islets on the river where they tended their farm,their cattle,and their home. With the resettlement,their residence location has changed but the activities that supposedly guarantee their livelihoods have inevitably continued in the same places, except with the aggravating circumstance that they now have to spend even more time and energy getting from their place of residence to their place of subsistence. “Life was better before. Now the only thing we have better are the houses and the promise of electricity.” (Mutarara, Sucamiala Community) About 47% of interviewed communities are resettled in improved houses,with better masonry,a large majority have a school and health clinic nearby,but in terms of food security they are in worse conditions. Their survival still depends on the same activities which require the same re- sources; fertile soils and water resources. The vast major- ity,resettled and not resettled,changed their place of residence due to the floods which have occurred in recent years,each time increasingly larger,more frequent,and with a longer permanence of water,causing more cumula- tive impacts. The population is increasingly more poor and vulnerable. “Now we have a house on higher ground,when the floods come we don’t lose our house but in terms of food security our situation has worsened. Since 2007 to 2010 the situa- tion has worsened a great deal due to the frequent and di- vergent floods.” (Tambara,Macamba Community) “Now when there are strong floods they also inundate the resettlement area. In this community various branches of the Zambezi pass close by. In June this year almost every- thing was flooded and we lost complete communication. This site was chosen for resettlement because the area was higher and did not have to change in neighbourhood. There is a school but not every year and the Rural Hospital is 6 km away.” (Mutarara,Sucamiala Community) Another big and current problem is access to water. The resettled communities are now far from the river and ac- cess to water is a problem that arose with the resettle- ment,there is a case in the Sabet community in Tamba where a community is located 9 km from the river,without water and where the access point to the nearest water is precisely 9km away. Another example is Catchaço,Mu- tare,where the nearest point of access to water is 3km away,but it is an area with a high number of crocodiles,a situation that is worsened by the problem of irregular and uncontrolled flooding. “There is a water source but which is dry during the dry season and so we have to travel 3km in search of water. The floods bring more crocodiles.” (Mutrarara,Catchaço Community) Another site referred to as having a serious problem of ac- cess to water was the community of Baue,also in Mutare, where Oxfam has already made four boreholes but the water is salty. That leaves the population to get water from the nearest accessible location 5km away. This location was chosen for resettlement because it was the closest lo- cation,however far away from the islands,and so Baue ex- panded. This population has many children and old people,mostly women and in terms of local culture,this is precisely the kind that will go and get water,leaving no major alterna- tive for individuals who could volunteer to get extra water for those not in a position to do so. Figure 6: Along the river, day-to-day basis, in Tambara. Photograph by Sílvia Dolores “The biggest difficulty in access to water,the nearest point is 5km away. The majority of the population are old or women,who will fetch water for these people? We are asking for a borehole! Chief: Oxfam has already made four boreholes but the water that comes out is salty!” (Mu- tarara,Báue Community) Therefore,because the damage is no longer counted as losses of lives and homes,discharges or floods triggered by these will not have such catastrophic impacts,not tak- ing into account many of the losses in small family farms. Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 13
  15. 15. 14 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods “We will die and leave the houses; even so we still better manage droughts than floods,floods we can no longer en- dure.” (Mutarara,Sucamiala Community) For these communities the impacts of floods cause the greatest loss of time and energy than planned which could be allocated to something more productive. The constant irregular discharges further aggravate the situation con- demning these people to perpetual and extreme poverty making them increasingly vulnerable. 3) Responsibility in the Regulation of the River Flow The interviewed communities seem to have a clear notion of who is currently responsible for the floods. Many do not even know what a dam is or how it functions but they know that now floods are no longer tied to the rain or the wet or dry seasons,as was the case in the not too distant past. Reference is made to the main problem involving ir- regularity,lack of periodicity,and frequency of the floods which has happened in recent years. Responsibility is at- tributed to the HCB. “The Government is more concerned with electricity than its people: We are asking that they please try to mediate, manage,and stop the discharge confusion. Only in this way can we can fill our granaries and when we produce we do not upset anyone and we stay well! Chief: I'm asking that they take us to see the project of these dams that im- pact us so.” (Mutarara,Catchaço Community) Of the 15 interviewed communities,all refer to rain as the factor responsible for floods before the flood situation worsened,except the Boroma community that refers the discharges of Kariba in addition to the rain,they refer to that time as having floods in amplitude of small to medium,with large cyclical flooding every 5 years and in the rainy season. For the current period or after the flood situation deteriorated,all refer to Cahora Bassa Dam as being the factor responsible for current floods referring to these floods as very large,irregular,and uncontrolled with major floods occurring every year. “Since before and after the construction of the Cahora Bassa dam,the floods were every 5 years in the rainy sea- son,now that Cahora Bassa is ours everything is out of control,it is necessary to comply with a discharge plan so that we can control our production. We now have uncon- trolled floods and violent droughts.” (Mutarara,Sucamiala Community) “Now the HCB is responsible –where they resolve the water! They cause major flooding every three months,this year there have been at least three; in March,June,and July. With the construction of the HCB the problem of flooding has increased from 97 for here it has worsened.” (Mutarara,Catchaço Community) 40% of the communities to whom the issue was put stated that in the last decade there have been floods every 2 or 3 months. “Before,the rain was the factor responsible for floods which were small and every five years in the rainy season, now the HCB is responsible and floods are major and every 2 months.” (Mutarara,Baué Community) Still,the remaining nine communities also refer to the last decade as the most critical period,ranking the floods as very frequent and irregular and occurring at least twice a year and which no longer occur in accordance with the rains. A group of fishermen from Caia note that this year the river filled four times in 3 weeks. “Now water from the Zambezi River does not accompany the rain. In June there was a large flood that came from HCB and this time it filled four times in three weeks.” (Caia,Chandimba and Inhampunga Communities) According to the Administrator of Marromeu,this year there was a period in which the ARA Zambezi summoned all Board Members,representatives of the District Govern- ment of Caia,Mopeia,Moatize,Marromeu,Tambara,and Chemba,the NSA (National Roads Administration),Trans- marítima,WWF,INGC,FIPAG,Mota-Engil,Mphanda Nkuwa Hydroelectric,among others to a meeting that took place on 10 September under the theme of Zambezi River Water Management. At this meeting,the HCB said that the floodgates would remain closed for an extended period during the dry season,which took effect this year and which would be repeated until 2013,due to the HCB needing to carry out maintenance work and improvement of the structure of the dam (REABDESC project - dam spill- ways rehabilitation project - the project will be imple- mented by ALSTOM under the supervision of INGEROP Africa) and that for this to happen the gates should be closed. According to other sources,who prefer not to be identified here,an agreement was discussed and estab- lished,in which the Directors had an active role,that the Figure 7: Interview with the Baue Community. Photograph by Anabela Lemos Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 14
  16. 16. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 15 III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods time period should be from April to 15 November so as to coincide with the sowing season thus giving time for the people to carry out the harvest of their products. This agreement will take effect from next year because 2010 was a year marked by consecutive floods wherein the community lost more than twice the crops already planted and the agreement was only signed in September. It is however noted that all 15 interviewed communities in this study were aware of the situation,as it relates to this year, and they were already waiting for the waters to rise from November 15 upon the reopening of the floodgates. This will be a situation,experienced in due course that could serve as an example not only in what concerns a good example of forewarning,which you can see,proving that the early warning system works,with the most re- mote users of the Zambezi being informed,but also in the future in terms of integrated management and effective participation of stakeholders. If this agreement can suc- ceed,this could be the basis for negotiations for entering a new era of arrangements in which all users can take ad- vantage of the management of the Basin and the interests of all may be taken into account with the same weight without the priorities and interests of some being unfairly taken into account at the expense of the rights of others, and the most privileged decision makers. 4) Environmental Impacts All 15 interviewed communities reported that the river has changed and now has more extensive banks where sand is deposited and are thus wider,erosion is a very obvious fac- tor. Now the river overflows more often and more easily and has a much larger wetland which floods much more quickly. “The river now,since 1997,has a lot of sand and overflows much more easily,floods are now out of control and cause constant erosion. Before,the water was quickly drained but now stands for a long time,between one flood and the next the water does not drain away and sometimes re- mains for 3 months.” (Mutarara,Catchaço Community) Everyone refers to the river as being far wider and less deep,with fewer islands and bends. The fishing commu- nity of Caia refer to the river as now having a much stronger current,which coincides with what most commu- nities mean when they speak of the aggressiveness of floodwater of nowadays. Unregulated and frequent floods are factors cited by all respondents,but the time of the change varies according to the age and memory of the people. “We have felt the change since 2006,the river is now less deep,has more sand,is wider,and the floods are responsi- ble for this.” (Marromeu,Jiwa Community) Older people who could have been witness to the change of the river from the beginning of that change at a national level report the construction of the Cahora Bassa dam as being the first factor of change. (Chandimba and Inham- punga Communities) “Between 1975 and 1976 we noticed a change in the river. The river was once deeper,narrower,with more bends and now the current is stronger,HCB was the factor of change.” (Caia,Chandimba and Inhampunga Communi- ties) It was,however,the uncontrolled floods of recent years which all communities mentioned as the aggravating fac- tor of the state of the river. 20% of the interviewed com- munities refer to the period of 2001-2003 as the period from which it was noted the worsening of uncontrolled discharges by the HCB,while 40% stated that the change in the structure of the river due to uncontrolled dis- charges by the HCB has worsened significantly since 2005-2008 included in this group are the communities of the Districts of Tambara,Mutarara,and Marromeu. Another aspect referred to by most communities is the man-animal conflict. Uncontrolled floods and the inher- ent problem of the structure of the river have increased this conflict because the banks of the river have under- gone transformation and crocodiles have greater access to banks. “The uncontrolled floods have worsened the crocodile sit- uation and their attacks on our communities are more fre- quent.” (Mutarara,Catchaço,Marromeu,and Jiwa Communities) This factor coupled with the unpredictability of floods seems to have caused a disturbance not only in the popu- lations of crocodiles but also of existing hippopotamus and snakes,increasing the number of attacks on the popula- tion by these animals,especially children who accompany their mothers while fetching water or washing clothes in the river or even when they are on their farms on the banks of the river. “When it floods the hippopotamus,crocodiles and snakes flee creating major conflicts.” (Caia,Chandimba and In- hampunga Communities) Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 15
  17. 17. 16 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Figure 8: Average Monthly Flow of the Zambezi River 5) Hydrology The Zambezi River has always traditionally presented a high seasonal flow,with low flow evident during the dry season and a flood inducing high flow during the summer. Cahora Bassa altered this flow by releasing stored water to generate energy during the dry season,and using the flood inducing high flow of summer to fill the reservoir to prepare for the low flows of the dry season. Despite Kariba Dam also being on the Zambezi,it is possible to verify from the graph below (Fig. 8),that comparing the natural flow of the Zambezi River (yellow line) with the influx or inflow into the Cahora Bassa reservoir (blue line) the difference is low and still has a seasonal flow,and a major reason for this is that several tributaries which flow into the river downstream of the Kariba dam. However,when compar- ing the level of influx into the Cahora Bassa reservoir (blue line) with the discharges from Cahora Bassa (red line) it is verified that discharges are fully regulated. In short,the influx follows a seasonal pattern (Blue Line,Fig.8),as op- posed to the discharges,which are regulated and constant (Red Line,Fig.8). Thus the regulation of the flow of the river by Cahora Bassa dam can be considered as an impact of the differ- ence between the inflow and the reservoir discharges (green line). Similarly one can determine the impacts of dams upstream of Cahora Bassa in the regulation of the flow of the river by comparing the natural flow of the river with the influx into the Cahora Bassa reservoir (dark brown line),however this comparison does not consider the potential impact of climate change that is forecast for the Zambezi Basin,there may be a reduction in the flood- ing period which implies that given the determined im- pact could be relatively lower due to the contribution of climate change. On the other hand,the issue of the potential impact of cli- mate change does not apply to the specific case of Cahora Bassa because the comparison is made with current data of inflow and discharge. Cahora Bassa causes changes in the natural flow of the river in the order of 500 to 1000m3 / s above the natural flow in the period June to December and from December to May there is a reduction in the natural flow that reaches 2000m3 / s. It is verifiable that the dams upstream of Ca- hora Bassa cause changes in the natural flow of the river, and during the period July to February the flow can be up to 500m3 / s below the natural flow,which represents about half of what is caused by Cahora Bassa. Regarding the natural flow of the period March to June its lowest point was reached of around 1200m3 / s below the natural flow. The Lower Zambezi no longer follows the natural flood regime,and the flood plains remain dry during the hot summer every year,except in the rainiest. The regulated flow of the Zambezi has allowed wet areas to dry,previ- ously fed by the floodwaters of the Zambezi. In the past, the Dona Ana Bridge had more than ten of its pillars im- mersed in the waters of the Zambezi River,but currently only four pillars are in the water (Fig. 9). Dry channels and arms along the Zambezi are becoming increasingly com- mon,with many of these being completely disconnected from the main channel of the river.(16) The river is no Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 16
  18. 18. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 17 III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods longer a river of multi-channels and side branches that are constantly changing,instead it has become a river with a more singular main channel with more stable islands, arms and branches.(16) “Now we are in the process of restoring the Salan River, since the need arose due to silting of the river and every- thing is working very well.” (Marromeu,District Service of Planning and Infrastructure) The water released by the Cahora Bassa erodes the banks and deepens the central part of the riverbed due to the need to balance the water sediment content.(9,16) The deep- ening of the riverbed later prevents flood waters from breaking the banks and allows for the feeding of the dry floodplains with necessary water. With the passage of time increasingly larger floods will be necessary for it to be possible to satisfy the amount of water needed for wet- lands and flood plains,making the rehabilitation of the Lower Zambezi increasingly complicated.(8,11,16,17) Figure 9: Dona Ana Bridge, taken on the same day of the year, the image to the left corresponds with a photograph taken in 1975 and the image to the right is a photograph taken in 1997.(16) The dry flood plains became a remote landscape,wet, rugged and inaccessible for people in an accessible land- scape,hence uncontrolled hunting and poaching in the flood plains have increased to alarming levels reducing, since 1970,the huge herds of buffalo by 95%.(1,7,11,18) The re- maining herds are concentrated in areas where seasonal floods still occur on a small-scale due to small unregulated rivers coming from the highlands of Cheringoma. Even the elephant populations,which once occupied the perma- nently flooded marshes within the Delta,have became ac- cessible to poachers and are now almost nonexistent. The same is true for the herds of previously abundant Piva (wa- terbuck),sable antelope,and zebra.(1,11,18) The dry flood plains have serious consequences for biodi- versity and the populations of large animals are not the only ones at risk. The now dry flood plains quantitatively reduced several species of herbaceous plant in the wet- lands and allowed for the invasion of woody savanna.(16,17,21) The other herbivores can no longer control the growth of plants,further altering the vegetation. 6) Hydrological Forecast Model Used The hydrological forecasting model used to predict flood- ing in the Zambezi Basin which is also used regionally,is the SARCOF (Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum) which is allegedly not the most suitable,with the most appropriate model being DRIFT though it is fairly un- known and requires more data for greater accuracy. (GPZ Marromeu) The current model used by the ARA-Zambezi nationally is the SAC model (Flood Warning System) that being opera- tional permits the evaluation of the characteristics of flood waves and the degree of flooding that will be generated in the different sections of the river. SAC allows for the mon- itoring of flood waves from the dam to the mouth as well as the conversion of the volume of precipitation in the Lower Zambezi basin in terms of drainage. SAC is also fed daily,in two periods,the data of the effluent flow from Cahora Bassa which is sent to the ARA-Zambezi to complement the data collected by the ARA-Zambezi in hydrometric and pluviometric stations so that the above model can determine the nature of the runoff generated in the Basin downstream from Cahora Bassa at all times and can predict well in advance the degree of flooding in risk areas. SAC was designed to obtain data flow based on the discharges of HCB and the volume of rainfall in the Lower Zambezi. As the ARA-Zambezi operates this model, it is for them to check whether the developed model meets the commitments and risk management needs of downstream. However,it was reported by several sources including the HCB that improving the network of hydrom- eteorological stations certainly will contribute greatly to the enhanced use of the SAC model for various purposes which it could represent in terms of the overall global management of the Basin and main channel of the Zam- bezi provided that certain conditions improve. Since the basic principles used in flood propagation models are usu- ally the same,improving the current model or the suc- cessful implementation of a new model depends on how this will be fed data and the initial conditions for its cali- bration (topographic data,vegetation,and other physio- graphic elements of the basin and river bed,the more detailed the more accurate the model). Similarly and in addition,there must be an integrated system with a com- ponent that allows the prediction of the volume of precipi- tation with the longest period possible. The forecasts and the amount of rainfall recorded in real time,collected from the network of stations across the region,will serve as input for the drainage model. The HCB also has a model to evaluate the hydrometric lev- els caused by discharges and the time that the wave will take to reach various points downstream,constituting the hydrologic simulation results obtained by the HCB techni- cal support relevant to decision making by ARA-Zambezi which using the means and authority capacity it immedi- ately spreads to the competent bodies. Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 17
  19. 19. 18 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods According to the ARA-Zambezi and the representative of the WWF Marromeu,the forecasting model is outdated given the changes in the river,the flow,and the parame- ters for emergency hazard assessment currently in force. According to these institutions there are very few people now living along the river and many of the flow measure- ment stakes are not in their places and no longer corre- spond to the reading given the changes in the river (Figure 10). “It is necessary to revise the hydrometric scales,the sce- nario on which they are based was the basis for other phe- nomena,now,with changes in the climate and river there is a need for revision. ‘The scales are outdated,not many people still exist on the banks of the river. So,when there is a serious emergency people no longer connect and are caught unprepared.” (Marromeu Administration) It is therefore essential that the current model in use is updated,not least to take advantage this but with more data entry. The review of the hydrometric scales and their location is also an inescapable fact in that the data to be entered into the model are feasible and its interpretation Figure 10: Hydrometric Scales in Boroma, Tete. Photograph by Anabela Lemos and measures taken are the most correct,as weather fore- casts imply the existence of a network of stations and scales within the region as well as data from satellite ob- servations and by a meteorological radar network. Finally,it is necessary that basic conditions are created so that Mozambique can be up to the effective integration of a broader system of shared management of the Basin, which will supposedly follow the establishment and sign- ing of agreements between countries that share this Basin and that for this effect has joined efforts (according to the interview of HCB). It is necessary to improve internal communication systems so that they are equivalent and can be inserted into the regional system. 7) Flood Early Warning System The ARA-Zambezi produces the annual contingency plan specifically for flooding,similar to weather forecasts and, in the case of a flood situation,the ARA-Zambezi has the SAC model that together with the SARCOF and the dis- charge simulation models an integrated analysis of the sit- uation regarding the region can be made. Even so,during the rainy season they organize meetings involving the HCB,DNA,ARA-Zambezi,and the INGC where the Reser- voir Management Plan is analyzed in detail,giving these institutions the necessary information to be disseminated. There are several institutions that are concerned with im- proving communication,such as the Tambara Administra- tion,Marromeu WWF,Mutarara World Vision, Administration and GPZ of Marromeu,which corresponds to about 31% of interviewed institutions who allege that they need timely and useful information. “The Zambezi valley is very vast,it was important that there was circulation of information,it was important to have useful information at a useful time.” (Tambara Ad- ministration) The distance factor with the ARA-Zambezi,or Tete City, seems to be directly related to the number of concerns raised regarding this communication problem. All these institutions reflect the need to create or better use the ex- isting structures to create a communication platform where information can be circulated to all interested par- ties and users of the basin equally and simultaneously. “It is increasingly difficult to communicate and share in- formation,especially large new companies.” (Tete,INGC) The need for better communication between users is not restricted to a national level but across borders. The Zam- bezi Basin is a shared basin,therefore the responsibility of the cumulative impacts downstream has to be shared,but for that they must be discussed in a timely and participa- tory fashion. Communication with Kariba seems to be an unknown issue to the interviewed communities and insti- tutions. Of these only the INGC Tete,the Administrator of Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 18
  20. 20. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 19 III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Marromeu,the WWF,and the HCB,spoke at the recent beginning of understanding with Kariba,a well known sit- uation at the level of the Zambezi Basin Committee,which the NGO Justiça Ambiental is a part of and which has been a frequent member in the last few biannual meetings. According to the HCB,currently with the revitalization of the JOTC (Joint Operational Technical Committee),the HCB can exchange hydrological information with the dam operators and managers of water resources upstream,par- ticularly the ZINWA (Zimbabwe National Water Author- ity),the DWAF (Department of Water Affairs of Zambia), the ZRA (Zambezi River Authority),ZESCO (Zambia Elec- tricity Supply Company),KNBPS (Kariba North Bank Power Station),and the KSBPS (Kariba South Power Station Bank).(22) Nevertheless,according to the same source,the improve- ment of communication between the two will depend on the existence of networks of stations; meteorological radar stations and others,still depending on the communica- tions system and the installation of a station that produces forecasts for the basin. In addition to these,it will also de- pend on the degree of inter-institutional relations in the Zambezi Basin. Honouring the river sharing agreements of the region,which includes the Zambezi,it is hoped that the instruments are created to improve communication and respect for the interests of riparian countries. According to the HCB,in this context,it feels that it is im- proving the relationship of communication particularly with Kariba,as there was a technical and executive meet- ing in Songo on 11 and 12 January 2010 with the executive directors of HCB / Kariba / ZESCO to discuss the means for exchanging information in real time,which was an impor- tant milestone in strengthening the relations between three major dam operators on the Zambezi River Basin, thus moving towards a system of coordinated operation of hydraulic infrastructure in the Zambezi River Basin. Other involved bodies include; ZINWA,DWAF,ZESCO, KSBPC,ARA-Zambezi,DNA,WWF (Zambezi Environmen- tal Flow Program). The WWF now performs the role of coordination and financing and over the last two years the communication relationship between the two dams has, according to the representative of the WWF in Mar- romeu,greatly improved. The WWF had a major role in this process wherein there was an exchange of experi- ences between the HCB,Kariba,and Kafue. A deal that en- sures no one can discharge without warning was signed in the U.S. and witnessed by NGOs and CSOs,to be specified. According to the same source,government bodies were also involved,such as MICOA. However,the agreement among governments is still a step to be materialized in the future,as agreements are currently being established at the level of the dam managers. According to the consulted communities and in accor- dance with the level of information they have,the system designed and implemented works using the Local Com- mittees for Disaster Management as support. The com- munities are satisfied with the way it operates because they feel they are part of the system since these commit- tees contain effective representatives of their interests or problems elected by the communities themselves. The problem lies in the early warning of the communities and the increasing numbers of discharges which are released outside of the rainy season. The communities claim that 1, 2 or 3 days notice is not enough time to ensure the harvest of their crops on their farms. It would be the appropriate time needed to save lives and property,but that was when they lived along the river,not now that the vast majority are resettled. Until not too long ago,the management of discharges allowed the community to do it’s planting in each of the farms (the upper and lower zone),in accor- dance with the rainy or dry season thus ensuring at least two harvests per year. This was due primarily to two fac- tors: the early years of dam management (late 70’s) coin- cided with the recent independence of the country wherein the political system prioritized the welfare of the people and ensured that the discharges were planned as best possible considering the cycle of crops and people's needs,and at the same time,with the initial period of the operation of the dam itself under the control of the Por- tuguese regime in a newly independent country,thus con- ditioned under their management. The second factor relates to the period between the late 80's and early 90’s which stood out because it was a long dry period so the water discharges were more limited. These two factors made it difficult to perceive of the implications or the management of the dam. From the mid-90’s,there was a normalization of weather conditions and at the same time there was a shift in priorities in that hydropower produc- tion and various economic interests outweighed the inter- ests of the people. Another point raised by all the interviewed communi- ties(15) is that the information disclosed is not the most ap- propriate in order to facilitate understanding by the communities. When there are new discharges only the volume of water (m3) that each discharge will carry and the number of gates to be opened is released. This kind of language is not understandable nor can it be translated into the local reality because it does not refer to the impli- cations of these discharges in terms of the rising water level (meters) in different locations,which depends on the water velocity,the amount of water discharged,the local relief,etc. “They only warn us of how many floodgates they are going to open,not how much the water will raise!” (Mutarara, Catchaço Community) Another issue to mention is that of the notice period,com- monly added to the time of the arrival of water,which varies according to each location and requires taking into account the distance from the wall of the Cahora Bassa dam to: Boroma and Tete with 20 hours of delay,up to 2 days to get to Tambara,Mutarara in 4 days,4-5 days to Caia and 6 days to Marromeu,which often leads to error in Marromeu of saying that flood notice is about 8 days. Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 19
  21. 21. 20 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Communication Scheme between the Various Sectors and Players The Regional Water Administration of the Zambezi Basin (ARA-Zambezi) is the entity responsible for the manage- ment of the basin and also for the dissemination of infor- mation to all Zambezi basin users in Mozambique. It has a close relationship with the HCB and assumes a connecting role between the HCB and the rest of the river users. All information relating to the management of the reservoir is directed daily to the ARA-Zambezi which has the re- sponsibility of spreading this information to different users; the HCB uses other channels to get information in- cluding the Basin Management Committee (which meets ordinarily twice a year,and through this meeting the HCB divulges its reservoir management plan and all other in- formation deemed relevant to all the representatives of river users),the result of the water balance is sent out daily,weekly and monthly to the ARA-Zambezi,the Na- tional Water Directorate (DNA),the National Institute for Fisheries Research (INIP),and Electricity of Mozambique (EDM),and in situations where it is necessary to change the regime of discharges where possible the HCB dissemi- nates this information to users in general,giving priority to communication with the ARA-Zambezi (Fig. 12). With the private and academic sectors the HCB has participated in seminars wherein knowledge of the management of the Cahora Bassa reservoir is disseminated and therein has is- sued communications to the different entities and popula- tions in general about its possible management plan which takes into account meteorological forecasts,which is always a concerted action together with the ARA-Zam- bezi. Thus the ARA-Zambezi is the vehicle by which informa- tion is disseminated. It falls to the HCB to prepare reser- voir management plans into which discharge plans are integrated. These in turn are submitted and agreed to by the ARA-Zambezi whose mission it is to disseminate the information to the different users. According to the HCB, the decision to discharge is made in a coordinated manner the HCB submits it to the ARA- Zambezi,which in turn checks whether the conditions exist for its implementa- tion,and only after that discharges are made. The ARA- Zambezi is thus the first to be informed by the HCB about an anomalous situation a minimum of 72 hours in advance via Radio Mozambique,telephone,or courier,so the HCB is the decision-making body. The decision involves the eval- uation of the meteorological situation of the basin,mainly from Cahora Bassa and Kariba,and the consent of the ARA-Zambezi,after creating the conditions. The ARA- Zambezi is the disseminator of information to the users of the basin. In the rainy season,the data from stations oper- ated by the ARA-Zambezi (with alert levels previously es- tablished in coordination with DNA to different sites where the superior body is MOPH - Ministry of Public Works and Housing are sent daily to the HCB,with 72 hours in advance during normal regimes and exception- ally in an emergency less time (Fig. 12). In an emergency,the ARA-Zambezi,as the authority shall immediately notify the INGC,which in turn mobilizes the necessary resources via CENOE (National Centre for Emergency Operations) and all means available to mini- mize the effects of the flood,which could involve the Civil Protection,State Administration,downstream dams,the media,NGOs,and even the Armed Forces if the situation warrants it. The ARA-Zambezi uses the SAC model (Flood Warning System) which allows for the evaluation of the characteris- tics and extent of the flood wave from the dam to the river mouth. Normally during the rainy season,there are more restricted meetings involving the HCB,DNA,ARA-Zam- bezi,and INGC where the Reservoir Management Plan is analyzed in detail,giving these institutions the necessary information to disseminate. Another additional model is provided by the HCB that allows the assessment of hydro- metric levels caused by discharges and the time that this wave takes to reach various points downstream,which to- gether with the other models allows a more complete,de- tailed,and comprehensive analysis of the situation. The ARA-Zambezi,using their means and authority,dissemi- nates quality information immediately to the above men- tioned bodies. In an emergency,the HCB also communicates with the District Administration of Cahora Bassa to request public dissemination of information to the entire population downstream of the dam. In the case of another,the ARA responsible for the location is also informed by the ARA- Zambezi as is the case of Tambara in Manica Province which is under the responsibility of the ARA-Centro and takes its role in the chain. The ARA then informs the Provincial government and other government bodies Figure 11: Sucamiala Community, Mutarara. Photograph by Anabela Lemos Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 20
  22. 22. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 21 III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods through official channels as well as to other users includ- ing the private sector of interest via television,e-mail,tele- phone,cell phone,radio,in accordance with the urgency of the situation. On the other hand,the ARA-Zambezi,in co- ordination with the INGC,via Provincial government that informs the Districts (Administrators),which activates the Emergency Operations Committee (EOC) and this in turn activates the Local Committees for Risk and Disaster Man- agement (CLGRC) at the same time disseminating the in- formation via Community Radio,a channel through which Figure 12: Communication scheme and bodies involved in the Zambezi Basin all users are advised to lowest level. The CLGRC in turn have their own radio which they use to communicate di- rectly with community leaders. The CLGRC have commu- nity leadership,which form part of the District Secretaries, traditional leaders,and religious leaders (influential per- sonalities and representatives),a total of 15-18 people (Fig. 12). The INGC plays the role of mitigating body by taking ap- propriate action to minimize the risk of life and property during situations of risk or disaster and as such has full power of decision. In a flood situation the Contingency Plan kicks in,set annually at a provincial level,with the participation of district bodies,with various scenarios,ac- cording to what is possible,and is then submitted to the central level. The development of this plan is a participa- tory process where all state institutions,local civil society, religious leaders and the private sector are involved. Many of the interviewed communities refer to the warn- ing of flooding as being made 2 to 3 days in advance,which coincides with the 72 hours reported by different institu- tions (HCB,ARA-Zambezi,WWF,INGC),unless it is an un- expected situation that could endanger the structure of the dam. There were however four communities,Boroma, two others near Mphanda Nkuwa,and finally the Sucami- ala Community in Mutarara District,all belonging to the Province of Tete,which state that they often receive the in- formation one day in advance,corresponding in terms of percentage to about 26%,which is relevant. It seems to have happened in June 2010,when there was a flash flood with very catastrophic consequences for all communities downstream of the HCB. Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 21
  23. 23. 22 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods 8) Climatic Changes Climate change is often associated with global warming and while that is true it does not always reflect the reality at a local level but instead the overall trend. Locally,the trend can be quite the opposite and it becomes increas- ingly difficult to predict the trend and the implications of climate change. However,the quality and level of reliabil- ity of mathematical models of climate change have in- creased and although it is difficult to predict small details with confidence,the general trends are strongly sup- ported and accepted by experts. In the case of the Lower Zambezi,it is expected that the maximum temperatures for the warmest month of the year will be higher (Fig. 13). Currently,in Tete province, temperatures are mainly between 32 ° C and 36o C,but these are to propagate downstream,by the Zambezi and the province of Sofala. It is clear also that the CCM3 model provides a "hotspot" of maximum temperatures above 40 ° C in the region of the proposed Mphanda Nkuwa dam. This is troubling because the physiological processes of plants and the growth rates only function normally from 0 ° C and 40 ° C,above which serious impacts and physical injury occur. The population of the area whose livelihood depends mainly on agriculture could suffer serious im- pacts. Current Forecast 20 - 24 24 - 28 28 -32 32 - 38 38 - 40 40 - 44 Temperature (ºC) 20 - 24 24 - 28 28 -32 32 - 38 38 - 40 40 - 44 “In June this year almost everything was flooded,and we were left without communication.” (Mutarara,Sucamiala Community) Currently the HCB is the decision maker and the first in- formant of the decision made. This decision takes into ac- count such factors as the priority of the company,the production of electricity,and the needs of users of the Basin,among them the private sector. The ARA-Zambezi despite participating in decision making does not have this power,it is the HCB that has this power,given the lack of ability and means to fulfill the given role,the manage- ment and coordination of the Basin. The ARA Zambezi is strongly dependent on the HCB in technical and financial terms and this factor does not allow this body of coordina- tion to be truly autonomous. Thus it is difficult to be im- partial in the management of the Basin,putting the most disadvantaged at risk and putting them increasingly at the mercy of the will and interests of large companies in- stalling themselves in the basin. Temperatura (ºC) Figure 13: Maximum Temperature of the Hottest Month in the Lower Zambezi, current and forecast Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 22
  24. 24. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 23 III RESULTSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Figure 14: Average Temperature of the Hottest Trimester in the Lower Zam- bezi, current and forecast (Precipitation) Current Forecast Figure 15: Driest Trimester in the Lower Zambezi, current and forecast Current Forecast Despite expecting an increase in maximum temperature an increase in average temperature of the Lower Zambezi is not expected. As shown in several studies of the impact of climate change,this case shows that there will not only be increases in the maximum temperature,but also in- creases in the amplitude between maximum and mini- mum temperatures. In the case of the Lower Zambezi minimum temperature reduction offsets the increase in maximum temperatures,resulting in an overall decrease of the average temperature in the warmest quarter of the year over time (Fig. 14). The full implications of these changes are complicated and difficult to understand in their entirety without having done a more detailed study focusing on the impacts of climate change. Changes in ex- treme temperatures and the increased range of tempera- tures can affect air currents and other meteorological factors in the future that could exacerbate climate change locally. The higher temperatures may also have a negative impact on soil productivity. The impacts of climate change on precipitation are most important to this study and easiest to understand (Fig.15 and 16). The CCM3 model predicts an increase in the ex- tremes,meaning a decrease in rainfall during the dry sea- son,especially in the delta region where rainfall can reduce to about 40% (Fig.15). On the other hand,a signifi- cant increase in the level of precipitation is expected dur- ing the rainy season along the Lower Zambezi,from 400-720mm to 720-980mm (Fig.16). In addition,precipita- tion in the region located north of the Cahora Bassa dam could increase to a level of 1500mm which is nearly dou- ble the current level. These changes suggest that there may be a worsening of the current situation of food insecurity because of the cli- mate impacts on which subsistence activities depend in these communities. The lower rainfall during the dry sea- son forces people to depend more on existing water bod- ies,especially in the Zambezi River. This can exacerbate the settlement patterns already in itself problematic and increase the number of people living in floodplains and other areas of high flood risk. On the other hand,increased rainfall during the flood season increases the potential im- pacts of these floods. Of concern is how these trends are forecast. The trends predicted by the CCM3 climate model do not occur lin- early,but with dips and peaks that can be interpreted as an increase in extreme cases of flood and drought. However, the climate change models are sensitive to assumptions and the quality of available data where trends already oc- curring have been analyzed and compared results. 86% of interviewed communities in which the issue of whether the weather / rain had changed was discussed,re- sponded without doubt that yes,all of whom referred to the fact that it rains for less time. “The rain no longer comes according to the calendar.” (Marromeu,Jiwa Community) 11 - 15 15 - 19 19 - 23 23 - 27 27 - 32 0.0-24.0 24.0-48.0 48.0-73.0 73.0-97.0 Precipitation (mm) 11 - 15 15 - 19 19 - 23 23 - 27 27 - 32 Precipitation (mm) 0.0-24.0 24.0-48.0 48.0-73.0 73.0-97.0 97.0 - 121.0 97.0 - 121.0 Temperature (ºC) Temperature (ºC) Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 23
  25. 25. 24 | JA _ Justiça Ambiental III RESULTS River Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods The communities are clear that the rainy season was al- tered,which in addition to having been delayed (before the rainy season began in September - November and could go on until April),is now restricted to just one month, some referring to January while others refer to February as nature’s chosen month. “Before it rained hard and now it only drizzles. In the past, life was much easier,now with the lack of rain,it is increas- ingly difficult.” (Marromeu,Bauaze Community) Most of the interviewed communities also note that even this month,the number of times it has rained is very low,1 to 3 times and that when it rains,it is torrential rain which destroys all crops. “The rainy season is shorter and when it rains it is torren- tial,before,the season was from November to June,now it rains in February,is very strong and destroys everything.” (Mutarara,Catchaço Community) The population of this area,historically and culturally,has always had two farms,one in the upper zone,away from flooded areas (in the rainy season) and another in the low- land area on the banks of the river in dry season,not sus- ceptible to flooding,each them with an average of two hectares. The fact that the rainy season is restricted to only one month,and with the few times it rains,sets aside the feasibility of the farm in the high area since it depends entirely on the continued blessing and gentle rains of the rainy season. Thus the population is limited to farm the lowlands,making them doubly vulnerable to and destined for food shortages due to the irregularities of the floods due to the amount of discharges that have been felt in re- cent years. Figure 16: Most Rainy Trimester in the Lower Zambezi, current and forecast Actual Previsão 50-170 170-290 Precipitation (mm) 290-410 410-530 530-650 50-170 170-290 Precipitation (mm) 290-410 410-530 530-650 Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 24
  26. 26. JA _ Justiça Ambiental | 25 IV CONCLUSIONSRiver Basin Management in the Middle and Lower Zambezi in Critical Periods Current discharges do not take into account the needs of all users of the Basin and changes are made according to the extraordinary demands of large users. The manage- ment has not been a participatory process,local communi- ties living close to riverbanks are without an active voice, their needs are not taken into account such as the sowing season,harvest time,and their rights are not respected. Part of the problem is the lack of an Integrated Basin Man- agement Plan wherein the interests of all can be inte- grated and safeguarded. The role of the ARA-Zambezi is not clear. Most users of the Basin do not distinguish the roles and responsibilities of the HCB and the ARA-Zambezi. The main coordinating function of the ARA-Zambezi is not effective and this is re- flected in the malfunctioning of the system of flood warn- ing,and this is compounded by weak policies and the limited capacity of the coordinating bodies. One example is the time of notice given to different users of the basin,72 hours,which is not enough,is often disregarded. The hydrological model currently in use is not being taken advantage of in its entirety and not all the necessary and sufficient data is included,resulting in poor accuracy and short lead time in making decisions and communicat- ing with the Local Committees for Risk and Disaster Man- agement. However there are other hydrologic models available,like "DRIFT",that are internationally respected, with good databases,and which are not being duly consid- ered. Excessive regulation of water combined with the misman- agement of the competent bodies leads to the livelihoods of communities being constantly at risk and they are now more vulnerable to the impacts of flooding. By contrast the work done by the INGC has minimised more catastro- phes. However it is always better to be safe than sorry,and according to the climate change modelling results the dif- ficulties currently faced by communities will be exacer- bated,so there is a great need to guarantee efficient and sustainable management which takes into account the needs of all users alike. Figure 17: In search of water, Boroma Community, Tete. Photograph by Anabela Lemos Zambeze_relatório_FINAL_impressao_eng_01_Layout 1 22-09-2011 23:15 Page 25
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