Gulf Coast GreenSymposium and Expo 2012The Politics of Carbon Management:Treaties, Programs, and Plans Aaron Tuley, AICP, Manager District No. 11
Session Objectives:The Politics of Carbon Management:To provide and overview - The evolution of International Accords and Agreements The strategies behind National Commitments and Programs Regional and State Programs . . . to reduce emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations of CO2
We are faced with the fact, myfriends, that tomorrow is today.We are confronted with thefierce urgency of now.In this unfolding conundrum oflife and history there is such athing as being too late. . .Over the bleached bones andjumbled residues of numerouscivilizations are written thepathetic words: ‘Too late.’Martin Luther King, Jr.
Scientists are forewarning – 450 ppm- will trigger potentially irreversible glacial melt and sea level rise… “out of humanity’s control.” As of 12 April 2012 - 394.45 ppmAt the current population growth rate of 1.5%, atmospheric concentrationsof CO2 are increasing at a rate at approx. 2 ppm annually. 450 ppm in 2040 RUNAWAY CLIMATE
Including land-use change and deforestation, emissions reached:2010 48 billion metric tons CO2e (36.7 BMTCO2) 5.9% increase over 2009
The Hottest Year Ever Measured (Statistically tied with 2005) 48 billion metric tons of CO2e (UNEP, 2010)Source: NASA/GISS
Scenario 4: Business as Usual(No action taken)132% Increase in Emissions by 20505.5 – 7.1˚C rise in global temperature by 2100Scenario 3: Late and Slow DeclineAction Starts in 203076% Increase in Emissions by 2050 =4 – 5.2˚C rise in global temperature by 2100Scenario 2: Early but Slow DeclineAction Starts in 2010Emissions return to 1990 levels by 2050 =2.9 - 3.8˚C rise in global temperature by 2100Scenario 1: Early and Rapid DeclineAction Starts in 201047% Decrease in Emissions =2.1 - 2.8˚C rise in global temperature by 2100
What are we doing about it? Is there enough time to alter this trajectory? Are we too late . . . ?
1992 World Climate Conference Rio Earth SummitIn response to the Brundtland Commission’s report, "Our Common Future,”an international conference was convened address urgent problems ofenvironmental protection and socio-economic development.ResultsThree (3) United Nations Conventions were adopted:•Convention on Biological Diversity•Convention to Combat Desertification•Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAgenda 21
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)Purpose –1.To illuminate the fact that climate change is a problem.2.Set lofty but specific, achievable goals.3.Put the onus on developed countries to lead the way.4.Direct new funds to climate change activities in developing countries.5.Keep tabs on the problem and whats being done about it.6.Formalize realistic consideration of adaptation to climate change.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC –“to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level thatwill prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system."further stating that -“such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystemsto adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened,and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“The UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994.Parties to the Convention – 192 signatory countries to the UNFCCC.Parties agreed -Annex I countries should reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. (8 ppm in five years)
UNFCCC Key Principle –Parties should act to protect the climate system, “on the basis of equality and inaccordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities andrespective capabilities.”This principle includes two fundamental elements:1. The common responsibility of Parties to protect the environment, or parts of it, at the national, regional and global levels.2. The need to take into account the different circumstances, particularly each Party’s contribution to the problem and its ability to prevent, reduce and control the threat (makes the distinction between “developed” versus “developing” countries).
1995UNFCCC realized that emission reductions provisions in the Conventionwere inadequate. They launched negotiations to strengthen the global responseto climate change, and, two years later, adopted the Kyoto Protocol.
Conferences of the Parties 1995 - 20121995 COP 1: Berlin, Germany 2004 COP 10: Buenos Aires, Argentina1996 COP 2: Geneva, Switzerland 2005 COP 11: Montreal, Canada1997 COP 3: Kyoto, Japan 2006 COP 12: Nairobi, Kenya1998 COP 4: Buenos Aires, Argentina 2007 COP 13: Bali, Indonesia1999 COP 5: Bonn, Germany 2008 COP 14: Poznan, Poland2000 COP 6: The Hague, The Netherlands 2009 COP 15: Copenhagen, Denmark2001 COP 7: Marrakech, Morocco 2010 COP 16: Cancun, Mexico2002 COP 8: New Delhi, India 2011 COP 17: Durban, South Africa2003 COP 9: Milan, Italy 2012 COP 18: Doha, Qatar
1997 Conferences of the Parties 3The Kyoto Climate Change Conference The Kyoto Protocol (KP) was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce GHG emissions by – 5% emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels over a five-year period (2008-2012). (1990 = 350 ppm CO2) Problem: Developed countries came under a compliance of emitting GHGs under a cap, while the developing countries were allowed to emit without a limit.
1997 Conferences of the Parties 3The Kyoto Climate Change ConferenceUnder the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures.Kyoto Protocol offers three market-based mechanisms:1Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)• Relationship between industrialized country and a developing country• industrialized country with emission-reduction commitment (host) v implements an emission-reduction project v in a developing country.• host country earns saleable, certified emission reduction (CER) credits, which can be counted towards meeting Kyoto target.
1997 Conferences of the Parties 3The Kyoto Climate Change ConferenceKyoto Protocol’s market-based mechanisms:2Joint Implementation (JI)• between two industrialized countries•allows a country with an emission reduction commitment to earn emission reduction units (ERUs) from an emission-reduction / removal project in another country, which can be counted towards meeting its Kyoto target.•underlying premise that it is cheaper to implement an emission reduction / removal project in a country other than in the host country.•offers Parties a flexible, cost-efficient means of fulfilling Kyoto commitments, while the host Party benefits from foreign investment and technology transfer.
1997 Conferences of the Parties 3The Kyoto Climate Change ConferenceKyoto Protocol’s market-based mechanisms:3Emission Trading (ET)•Under this scheme Parties would buy carbon credits developed by renewable projects in developing countries, at a flexible market rate to offset the extra amount to emissions.
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)ETS has been operational since 2005 and is the LARGESTinternational scheme for the trading of GHG emissionallowances.The EU ETS covers some 11,000 power stations andindustrial plants in 30 countries.The GOAL of the EU ETS is to encourage capital investmentin low-carbon energy technologies and fuels.The Kyoto Protocol requires the EU-15 countries reduce their collective emissions to - 08% below 1990 levels between 2008-2012.Emissions monitoring and projections show that the EU-15 has met this target.Unilateral commitment, implemented through binding legislation, to cut emissions by at least - 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. (500 MMTCO2e by 2020)EU has offered to increase its emissions reduction to - 30% of 1990 levels by 2020, on condition that other major emitting developed / developing countries commit to do their fair share under a future global climate agreement.
2009 Conferences of the Parties 15 The Copenhagen Climate SummitNon-binding, Copenhagen Accord was drafted by the U.S. - °1. recognizes the scientific case for keeping temperature rises below 2°C, but•does not contain a baseline for this target, and removes all benchmarks and commitments for reduced emissions that would be necessary to achieve the target (blessing and a curse).2. Commits capital support for Developing Countries•Green Climate Fund - $30 billion quick start funding ramping-up to $100 billion.4. U.S. agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, 42% by 2030 and 83% by 2050 2005 = 379.1 ppm CO2 (44.5 BMTCO2e)Problems –Non-binding, in that Parties did not sign-it and therefore did not agree to commit to it.
2010 Conferences of the Parties 16 Cancun Climate Change ConferenceCOP-16 negotiations were commended by many as noticeably more transparentand inclusive of all countries.Cancun Agreements. Copenhagen Accord is ratified.Parties agreed to –•commit to a maximum temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-Industrial levels, and to consider lowering that maximum to 1.5 degrees in the near future.•to establish a Green Climate Fund to provide financing to projects, programs, policies and other activities in developing countries via thematic funding windows;
- 56 BMTCO2 - 52 BMTCO2 Delta: 7 BMTCO2 - 45 BMTCO247% reductions beginning in 2010? Maybe 15-20% at most.November 2011The combined global effort to reduce emissions remains lessthan half of what it needs to be to remain within a 2 degree C.rise in temperature.
2011 Conferences of the Parties 17 Durban Climate Change ConferenceDurban Platform for Enhanced Action1. Cooperation: Called for “the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response.”• attempts to break down the divide between developed and developing countries in order to embrace an inclusive, collective action approach.2. Enforcement: Recognized the need to strengthen the multilateral, rules-based regime through development of a “protocol,” with legal force under the Convention, applicable to all Parties by 2015.Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol1. Governments of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol decided that a second commitment period, from 2013 onwards, would seamlessly follow the end of the first commitment period.2. The length of the second commitment period is to be determined: either 5 or 8 years.
2012 Conferences of the Parties 18 Qatar Climate Change Conference Not South Korea? Doha. World must engage, not enrage, the Middle East and the Arab World.CLIMATE VOTE PROJECTPurpose: challenge worldwide governments at COP 18 to develop a comprehensive, legallybinding climate protection agreement for the time after 2012.Objective: 10 million Facebook Users will add weight and coherence to this demand.The Climate Vote Project demands implementation of the following points in thissuccessor agreement:1. To ensure that global warming stays well below 2 degrees C., the industrialized nations must commit themselves to far more drastic reductions in emissions than in the first Kyoto period.2. New agreement must include the U.S., which signed the first KP but did not ratify it.3. Encourage India and China to take part with appropriate targets for Kyoto Phase Two.
Despite the U.S.’ weak response to international agreements . . Don’t give up hope yet -
National, Regional and Municipal Policies and Programs
2009 Executive Order 13514: Federal Leadership in Energy, Environmental, and Economic PerformanceGOAL:Reduce TOTAL federal Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by – 28 % from a 2008 baseline by 2020.Reduce indirect Scope 3 emissions by – 13 % from 2008 levels in the same time frame.2008 Baseline Emissions: 123.2 MMTCO2e 66.4 are subject to emissions reduction targets 18.5 MMTCO2eBut –By meeting these two goals, the federal government will, through 2020 –•Eliminate 235 million barrels of oil•Save $8-11 billion on avoided energy costs
2008,President Bush warned that U.S. emissions would continue to rise until 2025 . . .Despite the Myth of U.S. Inaction -Obama Commitment at 2009 COP 15 (Copenhagen): 17% Emissions Reductions below 2005 levels by 2020 U.S. Proposed Policies Potential Emissions Percentage below and other Developments Reductions (MMT) 2005 levels1 Stronger than expected recession:2 Unexpectedly high oil prices and low natural gas prices:3 Ambitious new automobile efficiency regulations:4 Accelerated shutdowns of coal-fired power plants5 Policy action in California (AB 32) 91.0 – 130.0 and other states 7.5% Official Estimate: U.S. energy-related emissions to be 7.5% below 2005 levels by 2020.
Despite the Myth of U.S. Inaction - Additional Economic / other Events Potential Emissions Percentage below Reductions (MMT) 2005 levels0 New Greenhouse Gas (GHG) 2.3% regulations:0 U.S. Congress extension of expiring clean energy incentives, tax credits and subsidies: 0.6% 10.4%0 Clean Energy Standard (CES) 2000 Subsidy for residential geothermal heat pumps 50 15.5%0 Faster than expected energy-related technological development: 2000 Continued lackluster growth by U.S. economy: 1830 Higher than expected oil prices ($200 / barrel by 2035): 127 18.9% - 24%
What Does America Need?Abundant and free renewable resourcesTechnologyMaterialsWorkforceCapitalRapid mobilization experiencePolitical will?
Part of the challenge over these past three years has been that people’snumber-one priority is finding a job and paying the mortgage and dealingwith high gas prices. In that environment, it’s been easy for the other sideto pour millions of dollars into a campaign to debunk climate-changescience. I suspect that over the next six months, (climate change) is goingto be a debate that will become part of the campaign, and I will be veryclear in voicing my belief that we’re going to have to take further steps todeal with climate change in a serious way. That there’s a way to do it thatis entirely compatible with strong economic growth and job creation – thattaking steps, for example, to retrofit buildings all across America withexisting technologies will reduce our power usage by 15 or 20 percent.That’s an achievable goal, and we should be getting started now. President Barack Obama Rolling Stone interview (24 April 2012)My view is that we don’t know what’s causing climate change on this planet.And the idea of spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try to reduce CO2emissions is not the right course for us. Mitt Romney (October 2011)
53% of Americans think the effects of Global warming have already begun or will do so in a few years. - GallupThe Age of Fact-free Science According to the Center for American Progress – More than half of the Republicans in the House and three- quarters of Republican senators now say that the threat of global warming, as a man-made and highly threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration and at worst an utter “hoax.” - New York Times, 25 February 2011
The Science of Truthiness: Why Conservatives Deny Global Warming
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) • Voluntary Program • 10 Northeast states • Power plants > 25 MW capacity • Only Carbon Dioxide Maine VermontRGGI Programs include: New Hampshire Massachusetts1. Goal Rhode Island • Reach 25-40% below 1990 emissions limits by 2010 Connecticut • Achieved 7% below 1990 emissions by 2009 New York Actions - New Jersey Maryland2. Clean up power plants (led to the first cap and trade program Delawarein the U.S.)3. Clean Cars Program – 30% reduction in per-mile emissions by 20164. Energy efficiency improvements• Resulting in $2.1 billion reductions in consumer utility bills, despite rate increases, because of the immediate impact of energy efficiency measures5. Expanded renewable energy – 25 MW in 2000 > 1,671 MW in 2010
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)Successes –Between 2000 and 2009, the 10 northeastern states that participate in the RegionalGreenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)1. cut per capita carbon dioxide emissions by 17.9%, 20% faster than the rest of the nation2. grew the region’s gross product per capita 87% faster than the rest of the U.S., with GDP increasing by 8.4%, increased economic output by $1.6 billion ($33 per person) (Environment New Jersey Research & Policy Center).Findings –1. large reductions in global warming pollution are possible2. innovative regional collaborations can help make them happen3. emission reductions can be achieved side-by-side with economic growth.So why did Governor Chris Christie withdraw theState of New Jersey from RGGI?
State of California Assembly Bill 32: Global Warming Solutions Act (2006)Set the 2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal into law.Lead Agency: California Air Resources Board (ARB)Provisions1 Establish 1990 as baseline year•2020 emissions forecast: 507 MMTCO2e•1990 emissions verified at 427 MMTCO2e 80.0 MMTCO2e2 Scoping Plan (approved December 2008) Reduction Goals:•Pavley (AB 1493) GHG emission reductions 26.1•advanced clean cars 4.0•Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) – 20% by 2020 21.3•Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) – 33% 13.4•Low Carbon Fuel Standard 15.0•Energy Efficiency (building, appliance, CHP, etc.) 11.9 91.7 MMTCO2e
U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection AgreementUnder the Agreement, participating cities commit to take following three actions:1) Strive to meet or beat the Kyoto Protocol targets in their own communities, through actions ranging from anti-sprawl land-use policies to urban forest restoration projects to public information campaigns;2)Urge their state governments, and the federal government, to enact policies and programs to meet or beat the GHG emission reduction target suggested for the United States in the Kyoto Protocol – 7% reduction from 1990 levels by 20123)Urge the U.S. Congress to pass the bipartisan GHG reduction legislation, which would establish a national emission trading system. Status? Uncertain. Can’t be measured.
Addison Texas Signatories: Arlington AustinCities that have signed the Conference of Mayors Carollton College StationClimate Protection Agreement: 1,055 (as of 21 April 2012) Coppell Corsicana 85 million U.S. citizens! Dallas Denton Edinburgh El Paso Euless Fairview Fort Worth Frisco Garland Hurst Hutto Laguna Vista Laredo McKinney Mount Vernon Plano Port Isabel Richardson San Antonio Shavano Park South Padre Island Sugar Land Texarcana Westlake