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Indonesia and its surrounding fossil energy outlook 2012-2013
 

Indonesia and its surrounding fossil energy outlook 2012-2013

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elaborate about world proven reserves, and focusing only asia pacific country, such as malaysia, china, australia, and indonesia. after that focusing more details in indonesia.

elaborate about world proven reserves, and focusing only asia pacific country, such as malaysia, china, australia, and indonesia. after that focusing more details in indonesia.

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    Indonesia and its surrounding fossil energy outlook 2012-2013 Indonesia and its surrounding fossil energy outlook 2012-2013 Presentation Transcript

    • Indonesia And its Surrounding Fossil Energy Outlook 2013-2014 EMP New Venture Review Dec-2013 Prepared by Alfaidhul Akbar “ To become the leading Independent Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Company in Asia. Implementing safety, health and environment excellence, uphold good corporate governance, contributing in community development.”
    • GLOBAL OUTLOOK Energi Mega Persada
    • World Proven Oil & Gas Resources Energi Mega Persada
    • Proven Crude Oil Reserves Asia Pasific  The most biggest proven crude oil reserves was held by China in 2012 with 25584 MMBBL. World Proven Crude Oil Reserves by Country 60,000 Others 50,000 million barrels Australia 40,000 Vietnam Malaysia 30,000 Indonesia 20,000 India 10,000 0 2008 Brunei China India Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Australia Asia and Pacific China Brunei 2009 2008 1,200 15,493 5,651 3,990 5,357 4,700 3,428 41,030 2010 2009 1,100 18,000 5,673 3,990 5,500 4,500 4,239 44,180 2011 2010 1,100 18,000 5,673 3,990 5,500 4,400 4,061 43,943 2012 2011 1,100 20,350 5,549 3,885 5,850 4,400 3,872 46,262  Second big proven reserves was held by Malaysia and India.  Brunei and Vietanme have a constant proven reserves year by year.  China and Malaysia show increasing trend of proven crude reserves Crude Oil Reserves (2012) 2012 1,100 25,584 5,571 4,030 5,850 4,400 3,872 51,587 Australia 8% Brunei 2% Vietnam 9% Malaysia 11% Indonesia 8% China 51% India 11% OPEC Annual Statistic 2013 Energi Mega Persada
    • Proven Natural Gas Reserves Asia Pasific Proven Natural Gas Reserves  Top 4 bigest natural gas reserves are Australia, China, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Others Australia  Both Australia and China show positive trend, increasing proven reserves year by year. Vietnam Thailand  Indonesia shows negative trend that natural gas reserves decreases. Pakistan Myanmar Malaysia Indonesia India Proven Natural Gas Reserves China 18000 Brunei 16000 Bangladesh Others Australia 14000 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 (Billion standard cu m) 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Malaysia has a positive trend both in oil and gas proven reserves growth 3000 3500 (Billion standard cu m) 0 12000 Vietnam 4000 Thailand Pakistan 10000 Myanmar 8000 Malaysia Indonesia 6000 India 4000 China Brunei 2000 Bangladesh OPEC Annual Statistic 2013 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Energi Mega Persada
    • Crude Oil Prices Selected Country Crude Oil Price 140 120 Crude Oil Prices ($/b) 100 80 60 40 20 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Indonesia Attaka Indonesia Minas Malaysia Miri 2012 China Daqing Malaysia Tapis 2011 Australia Gippsland  Oil price was fallen in 2009 due to economic crisis hit in Europe and US (Western Recession)  In 2010 to 2012, oil drove up due to turmoil in Middle East, and demanded high oil supply in China and India to support their industri growth. Energi Mega Persada
    • Crude Oil Prices Crude Oil Prices to OPEC Reference Basket (US$/b) 12 10 US$/barrel 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2002 2003 2004 Indonesia Attaka 2005 Indonesia Minas 2006 China Daqing 2007 Malaysia Tapis 2008 Malaysia Miri 2009 2010 2011 2012 Australia Gippsland  All crude oil price normalized to OBR (OPEC Reference Basket)  Malaysia oil price is higher than Indonesia oil price and others. It might be the reason why Hess Corp farmout Indonesia and Thailand’s assets and keep its assets in Malaysia.  In 2009, China crude oil prize droped down below normalized prices. Even,China crude oil is most lower price in vicinity country. Energi Mega Persada
    • Policy Index Rank (Frasser Institute, 2013)  Indonesia sit at bottom rank in Policy Perception Index. It is showed that Petroleum Policy in Indonesia were not liked by Investor due to uncertain regulations and policies, with nationalization of resources as the ultimate goal. Energi Mega Persada
    • Policy Index and Reserves Comparisson (Frasser Institute, 2013)  Lower policy index score means a better investment choice  Bubble shows reserves size, bigger bubble means bigger reserves. Energi Mega Persada
    • Policy Index Summary • Strong: • Single national regulator • clear, transparent, and efficient legal and administrative • Weakness: • A lot of regulations and operation controls • Strong: • favorable fiscal terms, • Good regulations • Good labour issues • Weakness: • Underexplored • Natural gas resources Malaysia Phillipine • Strong: • Rich natural resources • First PSC sytem in the world • Weakness: • Nationalization issues • Land acces • High fiscal intake • Uncertain regulatory • Official corrupted • Strong: • favorable fiscal terms, exploration is incentivized, regulations transparent • ease of access to authorities and technical data • Weakness: • High labour cost • Anti-fossil fuel paradigm Indonesia Australia Energi Mega Persada
    • Global Investment Climate Map (Frasser Institute, 2013)  Actractiveness measuring is not only based hydrocarbon richness, but weighted by several factor such as policies, geopolitic, and financial support Energi Mega Persada
    • INDONESIA INSIGHT Energi Mega Persada
    • Oil Refinery Map Energi Mega Persada
    • Importing Crude Oil  In 2011, Indonesia imported around 460 thousand bbl/d of crude oil and lease condensate, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence tanker tracking service.  More than a quarter of imports came from Saudi Arabia.  Other significant suppliers included Malaysia (13 percent), Nigeria (11 percent), and Australia (7 percent). Energi Mega Persada
    • Indonesia LNG Energi Mega Persada
    • Indonesia LNG Export  Initially, gas production oriented towards export, but declining oil production shits gas towards domestic comsumption.  In 2011, Indonesia consumed 1.3 Tcf of natural gas, or just under half of its total dry gas production.  Although the industrial sector accounts for the largest portion of domestic consumption, industry analysts expect the power sector to be the most significant driver of future consumption growth. Energi Mega Persada
    • Indonesia Basin Map  Future petroleum development in Indonesia depend on producing from drilled with discovery basin, new exploration concept to explore drilled without discovery basin, and drill undrilled basin. Energi Mega Persada
    • Indonesia Discovery Map (IHS 2008 op cit Satyana, 2013)  Dominantly, number of discoveries was held by West Indonesia with highest discovery in South Sumatra Basin.  In size of discovery, East Indonesia is much bigger than West Indonesia. Energi Mega Persada
    • Indonesia Petroleum Working Area Indonesia Working Area 200 120% No. Of WA 80% 100 60% 40% 50 Prod./Exp. (%) 100% 150 20% 0 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Production Working Area Exploration Working Area CBM Working Area Ratio Prod/Exp (SKK MIGAS, 2012)  In 2012, total working area in Indonesia is 309 working area, cosists of: - Conventional: Production area: 75, Exploration area: 180 - CBM area: 54  In average 2002-2012, ratio production to exploration block averaging 59%. So it means probability of exploration succes is about 59%. - trendline of Prod./Expl. shows declined, Rosing of exploration blocks were not followed by production block rose. Energi Mega Persada
    • Seismic Survey Seismic Survey Length 40000 140000 35000 120000 30000 100000 25000 80000 20000 60000 15000 10000 40000 5000  2D seismic survey was peak in 2010 and then fallen below 30% in 2011. sligthly, it shows positive trend during 20112012. 20000 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2D Seismic 2010 2011 2012 2D Seismic Cum. 3D Seismic Survey Coverage 16000 140000 14000 120000 12000 100000 10000 80000 8000 60000 6000 4000 40000 2000  3D seismic survey was peak in 2008, followed by a 50% declining in 2009. After positive trend during 2009-2010, it came to fall again during 2010-2012. 20000 0 0 2007 2008 2009 3D Seismic 2010 2011 2012 3D Seismic Cum. (SKK MIGAS, 2012) Energi Mega Persada
    • Exploration Well Wildcat Well Exploration Well Drilled 0.7 100 60 0.6 50 0.5 40 0.4 30 0.3 20 0.2 20 10 0.1 0 0 80 60 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Onshore 0 2008 2009 Wildcat Offshore 2010 Discovery 2011 2012 Succes Ratio Well Discovery and Resources Bubble  High onshore to offshore ratio, it suggest that exploration was strongly in onshore area. 154  Succes ratio averaged 59%, and showing decline trend. 35 30 25 20 361 235 15 987 508 10 5 0 2007 Succes Ratio 70 No. of wells 120 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013  Both of number of well discoveries and resources were rosed in 2012 with 27 discoveries and 987 mmboe. Well Discovery (SKK MIGAS, 2012) Energi Mega Persada
    • Upstream Activity Obstacles Obstacles Doing Upstream Business 2012 Subsurface Complexity Internal Company Equipments and Facilities External Factor (SKK MIGAS, 2012) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%  The biggest issue doing business in Indonesia is External Factor such as land usage, overlapping area, work permit, and social relation.  Internal company is second issue, it is about holding priority/focuss, financial, and operatorship.  Equipments and facilities is about rig, pipelines, etc. Energi Mega Persada
    • Conclussion  Largest proven oil & gas reserve in the world: - Oil: Venezuela, Suadi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait. As for Indonesia rank 28 in the world. - Gas: Rusia, Iran, qatar, Turkmenistan, and USA. As for Indonesia rank 15 in the world.  In Asia Pacific, China has the biggest proven reserve both crude oil (1st rank) and natural gas (2nd rank).  Based on policy factor in Asia Pacific, Indonesia has poor rank and not suggested to do investment. It is caused by uncertain regulatory, nationalization issue.  Major obstacles doing investment in Indonesia are land clearances, social issue, overlapping area, uncertain regulatory.  Future development in Indonesia will be East Indonesia which is underexplored now, and high risk. Energi Mega Persada
    • Thank You Energi Mega Persada “ To become the leading Independent Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Company in Asia” Energi Mega Persada