Trends 2012! !Opportunities that come from everything that is happening in consumers’ world! The Insight Point www.juanisaza.com!
Class of twenty twelve !!! ! 2012 starts with more questions than certainty, in a climate of economic turmoil, specially in Europe, and with the elections in the US that will capture a great deal of attention during the year. With great expectations about Facebook listing in the Stock Exchange in a year where it would probably be proven that is better to trust in corporations than in nations. In latin america, with great expectations about the elections in Venezuela and Mexico, making the most out of a good economic moment but suﬀering the negative impact of everything that could happen in other latitudes. With all of this in mind, we present the trend report of The Insight Point. As usual, it is important to say that this report does not have other interest than to generate points of view that get together ideas, actions or advances that trace paths of what consumers are experimenting in their lifes, jobs, urban spaces, brands and technology. Identifying, grouping or deﬁning trends has the purpose or letting businesses explore new ideas and lateral thinking. As in past years, maybe the main use of this document is to make brands question opportunities that they might have in front of them in this eight points. Finally, I want to thank everyone that supported this report with their observations and ideas, specially Mario Ponce and Felipe Serrano from DDB. Also everyone that used this report in their strategic planning process during 2011, the more than 12 thousand users that read it on Slideshare and the hundreds that downloaded it, recommended it or tagged it as their favorite. To all of them, thank you so much. The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!
The trends for this year 8! ! ! 1. Direct & raw 2. Un-‐categorically 3. Everything is social 4. Obsessive tracking 5. The center is ego 6. Real is real 7. Life is a game 8. Private Value The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!
1!!The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!Direct & RawA year ago we talked about the average citizen taking power over institutions. We said that they would be censored and criticized thanks to WE ARE GETTING INTO A WORLD OF connectivity. Just as we saw in the Middle East: citizens that, in many cases, without the help of traditional media or institutions, used CONSUMERS THAT ARE MORE AND MORE Facebook and Twitter to agree and plan how to overthrow dictatorships INTERESTED IN A REAL EXPERIENCE. PEOPLE that seem impossible to topple. Now the citizen feels that they can have access to reality without ﬁlters. What was done before by “agents” (a SEARCHING TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS typical term from the 20th century) can now be done by themselves. BEHIND THE SCENES. WITHOUT FILTERS. IT IS To talk about Direct & Raw is to talk about a whole new transparency. Media is needed for the analyzing and compiling of news but maybe it is NOT THE MOMENT FOR FANTASY OR TO no longer needed for the access to the sources in an era in which public personas “tweet” directly the news. Employers can have direct feedback SWEETCOVERED THINGS. THE CITIZEN WANTS of the moral of their employees without the intervention of a consultant http://tinyurl.com/bu7e7s7 and farmers can negotiate directly with buyers TO CONFRONT THE TRUTH WITHOUT AGENTS http://tinyurl.com/82z8tu5 . Loyal clients are the ones that convincevince OR MIDDLEMEN. skeptics about a brand without the intervention of advertising http://tinyurl.com/6mdqgtk . By this, it is not strange that peer-‐to-‐peer banking appears again http://tinyurl.com/7tzg3p2 . All of this makes it easier the direct connection that, maybe, will go to extremes like a football team that is managed by their fans http://tinyurl.com/3fwhjm3 . For Brands…The great questioning of institutions that have tried to manage our life will continue because the citizen will feel, in some way, that they are no longer needed. With this we will see more and more critics to central To be able to see the brands and companies in a direct banks, Wall Street, or even the capitalist system http://tinyurl.com/ way, without secrets and fake appearances, will 7hnutqx . increase credibility among consumers. Trendwatching In a year of elections in USA, we could see the skepticism of citizens calls it “Flawsome” and predicts that brands that put toward the “perfect” candidates as well as toward the perfect their perfect image aside will win credibility from PowerPoint presentations that dress-‐up everything http://tinyurl.com/649wl27 . Everything that seems covered in sugar, perfectly constructed consumers. And as always: Give part of the control to of transformed by a middleman will be challenged. consumers will give good dividends to whom do it fearlessly.
2!The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!Un-categoricallyMore than 10 years have passed since Zygmunt Bauman talked to us about liquid modernity. However we never had seen so clearly that liquid THIS YEAR WE WILL SEE WITH EVEN MORE world. Everything change swiftly and what we used to se as immutable, nowadays experience a great change. Changing of places, jobs, spouses, POWER, HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO TAG THINGS, values or sexual orientation. There seem to be no limits in a world where SEGMENT OR DRAW LINES. THE BETA STATE, tags dont have a place because everything ﬂows and everything, even what we used to hold as solid truth, melt. DEFINED LAST YEAR, IS NOW EVEN MORE In the words of Trendwatching, the great trend for this 2012 is the CLEAR: WE LIVE IN A WORLD IN WHICH “Eternal Disruption” as a result of new technologies, innovation and the change of values, that has a lot to do with this liquid world in which it is THINGS NOT ONLY EVOLVE BUT CHANGE impossible to put a tag before discovering that everything has changed. We will see how prices drop or products become free for a day THEIR VALUES OR ESSENCE IN A MATTER OF http://tinyurl.com/3twlryg everything because brands want to bring new users and because change is the only constant. SECONDS. This year we will see the pop-‐up phenomena growing stronger with restaurants that appear for a few hours http://tinyurl.com/846xb25 and it will not be surprising when whole shopping malls that appear today will be gone by tomorrow http://tinyurl.com/63s2dvj . The debates between connection and disconnection will mark people´s life. Spaces and devices that keep people connected are growing as well as spaces that invite For brands...people to disconnect http://tinyurl.com/7hebk8n . It will be impossible to trace the line between television and internet with the popularization of TV sets and websites in which people will watch their favorite series or It will get even more obsolete to talk about movies, legally and illegally. To go beyond this particular line will also be demographic targets. Psychographics will be proof of this liquid world. impossible to deﬁne as immutable values. It will get Leaders of the world kissing in the last campaign by Benetton and last even more complex to segment products or summers Target ad that showed a child with down-‐syndrome. It is not only an interest to generate controversy, it is the liquid reality in which brands. Brands should avoid establishing with one barriers between pretty and ugly, tender and cruel, violent and paciﬁc, seem to disappear. target, like Lego just did with its new line for girls (http://tinyurl.com/6lwrycd ).
3! !The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!Everything is socialPeople continue to use connectivity to make better buying decisions. According to a study by Google in 2011, 79% of smartphone users, use CONSUMERS WILL LOOK FOR ACCESS MORE them to buy and share shopping amongst friends. In a way, it is still valid THAN OWNAGE OF THINGS IN CONTRAST TO to say that you have not bought it until you have “posted” about it in social media. PAST GENERATIONS WHO´S LIFE WAS However, what is interesting now is that Hyper-‐Plural shopping, which GOVERNED BY THE OWNAGE OF GOODS, WE we talked about last year, has now turned into a Hyper-‐Plural community. Why buy a bicycle if you can borrow it and then leave it back ARE IN FRONT OF A CONSUMER THAT in an authorized site? Because of the expansion that this initiatives have seen in the world, borrowed or loaned bicycles have turned into an icon WANTS TO SHARE WITH HIS FRIENDS, of this need to share, and ﬁnd ways to use less polluting means of transportation. Levi´s has just launched a line of jeans for those that CONTACTS AND EVEN STRANGERS travel by bicycle http://tinyurl.com/7o6hnf8. In various countries diﬀerent ideas are seen that make life easier for those that have joined this movement http://tinyurl.com/894regm. Why buy something that you could borrow from a friend by just asking in Facebook? Maybe one of the most emblematic cases is Kindle, with its library where now you can loan books http://tinyurl.com/3lafwb3 . There is a social recognition towards everything that sounds like austerity and to avoiding unnecessary spending. Citizens will show themselves more For brands...critic of spending and squandering in government and companies. Group buying will continue to be a strong form of saving and eﬃcient buying at all levels, from consumer products to charter ﬂights http://tinyurl.com/ Crowdsourcing continues to be relevant and 7ve2zyr . With exclusive platforms through invitation or through the participating continues to be a more important hyper popular Groupon. incentive than owning for some social groups. We It is undeniable that maybe the most important engine of all of this is the will see brands and categories open to participation value that is given nowadays to sustainability. We will see hundreds of applications that help people to locate who has what other needs. All of and co-‐creation which would be unthinkable a few this to slow down unnecessary production. So we will also see many years ago. As an example, FiatMio CC (Creative initiatives to sell and buy used objects http://tinyurl.com/3psp2j5 or even “non-‐used ideas” http://tinyurl.com/yhrboy9 . commons) http://tinyurl.com/7pk5krs
4! !The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!Obsessive trackingThe need to measure everything will be seen in people as in institutions. Companies will become more critic on what represents to have a fan or ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT USES THAT follower in social media. The need to understand the value that generates PEOPLE FIND IN TECHNOLOGY IN A DAY TO every invested penny will be a constant. We are in the era of Econometrics and, with this, the solid belief that what cannot be DAY BASIS, PARTICULARLY IN APPLICATIONS, measured, does not exist. The Economist warns that en 2012 the focus of corporations trying to avoid risk will concentrated more in HAS TO DO WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF “accountability” than in “creativity”. TRACKING EVERYTHING THAT HAPPENS. Penetration of smartphones that in average is close to 20% in Latin America, has caused that applications that link geo-‐referencing and social MEASURE, CONTROL AND QUANTIFY WILL BE media, for example, no longer belong to the elite. Las year we talked about consumers desire to control everything with applications that THE VERBS OF 2012. helped them control the quality of sleep, their children development, the consumption and burn of calories, among many things. This year we will see how all of this becomes more popular an even bigger in a group of consumers. And we will see new applications that help collect, in a general way, everyday data. http://tinyurl.com/85kcwj4 . Also tracking so speciﬁc that they will help us evaluate our own body: Blood pressure, visual and skin health http://tinyurl.com/7j8z9v8 . Applications that start popular. For brands...to complement or even replace visits to the doctor will be more and more Applications will make the life of teachers and school directors easier by The possibility of tracking everything and the fact of helping understand the evolution of students http://tinyurl.com/732y62f or entrepreneurs that will be able to know and reward good conduct feeling that anything can be analyzed all the time, is amongst employees http://tinyurl.com/6rkuc32 . Alzheimer patients will not always negative. We will see many examples of have a better life thanks to geo-‐referencing shoes that will always show their location http://tinyurl.com/6ﬂyjbt . We will see many ideas about the brands that better-‐up their services, their oﬀers and combination of a place, a person and a time in order to generate prices by optimizing the relation between time and information that is both powerful and useful. The smartphone will turn into a vital tool to feel that you have everything “under control”. space in which consumers access their services. A good example in http://tinyurl.com/7hbeode.
5! !The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!The center is egoA year ago we talked about My World is the World. And this year the only thing the only thing there is to say about this is that volume has WE HAVE ALWAYS HEARD THAT EVERYONE IS increased. If a year ago it was interesting to see how consumers where conﬁguring content in order to be informed only of what interested THE CENTER OF THEIR OWN UNIVERSE. BUT them, now we see a world custom made for anyone becoming more NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY, PEOPLE HAD evident and deﬁned. If social media is the new public space, it will never be a space like streets or shopping malls because it is not a collective SEEM THE WORLD FROM SUCH A PERSONAL space, it is an individual space. It will be a social space but custom designed for each one. PERSPECTIVE. THE POSSIBILITY OF The fact of going from a society in which mass media chose (or impose) CUSTOMIZING TASTES, INTERESTS AND an agenda to the world, to a world where that agenda is selected by citizens, is not a small change. Today you can conﬁgure your world in SELECTING CONTACTS HELPS EVERYONE TO which there is no poverty, iniquity or war. You can also conﬁgure a world where only some brands or some categories exist. The peak of DESIGN THEIR OWN REALITY. the called F-‐commerce to refer to all commerce done inside Facebook is proof of this http://tinyurl.com/6p668ls. It implies more than recommendations in Amazon, since the volume of information of a person, their relationships and interactions is huge, and this will make the oﬀer more personal. This customization that goes to such intimate levels, will let us use our proﬁle to search for the home that will better ﬁt with our life http:// For Brands...tinyurl.com/7b2rtrt , ﬁnd people with whom we could have better chemistry or an application that will learn our tastes and preferences in A few years ago, the big challenge for brands was to order to recommend restaurants with absolute assertiveness http:// recollect data. This year, however, we will see that the tinyurl.com/5smlef2 . This year we will see new and impressive examples of how information about our life becomes actionable and challenge will be to use this data in a creative way. In useful. From there that it will not be exaggerated to say that the world the Cannes Advertising Festival we will see interesting will get conﬁgured to our measures and that Facebook and our mobile brand ideas that have transformed data about applications will get to know us better than our own family. consumers into content in an individual scale that helps him, connects him or simply entertain him.
6! !The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!Real is realThat old idea of ON/OFF in which the real world and the virtual world where a continuous line, is no longer a trend. Now, it is everyday life. WHILE THE VIRTUAL WORLD THAT That world surrounds us and it is impossible for many to approach the real world without virtual help. Just as we lost the ability to make AUGMENTS THE REAL WORLD IS GROWING, mental arithmetic calculations thanks to the calculator, very soon we WE WILL SEE MANY CASES IN WHICH will be unable to memorize a route because that task will be left to Google Maps or our GPS. In a world that starts to depend on the virtual CONSUMERS WANTS TO GO BACK TO WHAT in order to live the real. It is not weird that original versions, retro stores and the taste for the vintage start to pop-‐up everywhere. In the era of IS REAL, TO ORIGINAL VERSIONS, TO THE gaming and tablets, Monopoly decided to launch a replica of their original game in a wood box http://tinyurl.com/7epbob8 . At the same ANALOG, TO THE ANTIQUE. IT COULD BE time will see many initiatives to return to the use of 35 mm cameras in an era where they seem as an anachronism in front digital photography NOSTALGIA, BUT IT IS ALSO THE RESULT OF A http://tinyurl.com/3ctvggs . LOGICAL SATURATION OF A WORLD FULL OF It is this interest for the real what has made department stores like the BYTES. british Selfridges to put on their shelves the seal of “genuine vintage” in an important number of original vintage objects. That desire to own what we owned before everything came from China and was mass-‐produced or an imitation, will bring a lot of opportunities for brands and companies. According to The Economist, bosses will ﬁnd out that home-‐oﬃce has been disastrous for corporate culture and will look again for face to face jobs. For Brands... In a world in which expressing aﬀection was replaced in many cases by The big opportunity for brands could be in creativity clicking in the “like” button, today we live in the nostalgia for the that is born out of nostalgia and also out of revelry. In analog. Putting a megaphone on a street so that people shout-‐out instead of “posting” is a clear sample of this interest from consumers Singapore, a series of coﬀee shops created the for more authentic experiences http://tinyurl.com/3bdefy4 . BeDisloyal card, in order to give points to those that went to traditional coﬀee shops and not chains (Maybe Occupy Wall Street or Spain´s outraged has something to do with nostalgia for the French may. Without a doubt it is more than http://tinyurl.com/6py98yz). Do not forget the power that. But in a world full of social media, 4.7 instead of 6 degrees http:// that brand activations have with real real actions in real tinyurl.com/76uk68n , it looks like there is a need to join forces face to face in order to change the world. spaces.
!The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!Life is a game 7!Everything is a game, like we said last year, today this could not be more relevant. 67% of smartphone users have downloaded applications MUCH HAS BEEN SAID ABOUT THE related to games, says a study conducted by Nielsen. According to Time, in 2012, 50% of users that accessed Facebook did it to play. So, in EXPANSION THAT GAMING WILL LIVE IN OUR August when Facebook reaches 1 billion users, they will also be LIFETIME AND IN THE LIFE OF BRANDS. consolidating the biggest group of gamers in history. MAYBE WHAT IS MORE RELEVANT IS THAT IT Of the many collected observations in which gaming has diﬀerent roles, it is detected that gaming also has an education role. It is corroborated WILL STOP BEING AN ACTIVITY AND NOW with applications and real life experiments that gaming has a great didactic power not only to entertain but also to motivate employees WILL ALSO BE A TOOL TO LEARN, INTERACT http://tinyurl.com/6wl4sjm and to learn sciences in school http://tinyurl.com/3mfmqtt . AND MAKE REAL LIFE EASIER. Maybe the most interesting advance in gaming is that they are seen less as games and more as part of real life. That is why the Situationist, censured by Apple, is no interesting http://tinyurl.com/4oemngd . The dividing line between reality and game is the great transformation in our thinking and in the vision that man has traditionally given to gaming as something in the border real life. Graphics on game consoles have permitted that games are felt less as For Brands...recreational activities and more as real entertainment http:// In the last year, there have been many great cases of tinyurl.com/86etkbc . And we will see how equipment that once was used to play is now part of other territories, like a british company that the usage of games by brands. Maybe the great uses Kinect to study the shopping behavior of people http:// opportunity now is to see games not as games and to tinyurl.com/blavmpx . explore the limits with real life. The usage of geo-‐ It is because of this that we will see more eﬀort in tech companies to referencing or augmented reality can extend the expand the limits of their devices that work with gesture recognition in order to make them part of our lives. The same thing happens with brand experience beyond the limits of virtuality and voice that will be more and more useful. “Voice recognition is the new win diﬀerentiation by involving the life of people. QWERT” says Alexander Ljung, founder of Soundcloud.
8! !The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!Private ValueThe concern for the concentration of information about people that some platforms have will increase. This will surely cause a lot of THIS YEAR THE CONCERN FOR PRIVACY AND challenging: Facebook as owner of all personal information and connections, Google of searches, Amazon and Apple of preferences. In SECURITY WILL GROW AS MORE AND MORE 2012 there will be a lot of talk of who will be able to lead new spaces in PARTS OF OUR LIFE (INCLUDING MONEY) GO television (Google, Apple, Amazon?). Also about who would be the leader in pays through mobile, where there is no clear owner. Apple, THROUGH DIGITAL PLATFORMS. FACEBOOK Google and Nokia hand in hand with Microsoft, but also banks and credit card companies. AND GOOGLE+ WILL CONTINUE TO GROW As digital platforms involve more and more of people life, the worry and BUT NOT WITH BLIND USERS BUT WITH restlessness will grow. According to Sheryl Sandberg, Chief Operating Oﬃcer of Facebook, the growth of people shared information will be CRITIC USERS THAT PAY ATTENTION TO THEIR accompanied with an attitude of carefulness about what is being shared http://tinyurl.com/7xhhzh4 , even more as voice and face recognizance RIGHTS. schemes http://tinyurl.com/y8kztn3 that could raise questions about the risks for people´s privacy. So, this will be a year where laws will be discussed (in those countries where they have not been approved) and will be implemented and citizens will be taught about their rights (those in which there have been laws in regard to). Examples will come out of platforms that understand For Brands...the worries of people about privacy and about the use of information http://tinyurl.com/6wtvmkc and applications to save and protect There is no doubt that the big opportunity for brands content, proﬁles and preferences. will be in a proactive attitude in front of users doubts in Many will question social media and the use they give to conversation regard to the information that is being kept and used. data and “privacy will capture more attention as users become aware of Talking about privacy with an ample knowledge and how much information from their personal and professional life they are involuntarily giving out in social media” just as Sysomos blog points out oﬀering spaces for questions could be one of the in their predictions for 2012 http://tinyurl.com/7dev4xv. functions that give more credibility to community managers among participants of brand communities.
For more info... :)! ! ! The compilation of trends here included is the result of a work of capturing, ﬁltrating and evaluating of many direct and indirect sources. Among them: www.iconoculture.com www.trendhunter.com www.thecoolhunter.net www.trendoriginal.com www.trendwatching.com www.buzzfeed.com www.luckie.com www.economist.com www.springwise.com www.time.com www.trendcentral.com www.wired.com www.brandchannel.com www.blog.sysomos.com To consult more sources: http://www.delicious.com/juanisaza Tags: trends, trendspotting, consumer, marketing The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!
Juan Isaza @! ! ! Strategic Planning VP in the Mexican branch of DDB and director of Social Media Lab for DDB Latina. Since 2008 he is part of Planning Futures Group, a group with the task of creating and implementing of strategic tools that are used by DDB oﬃces throughout the world. He writes regularly for his blog www.juanisaza.com as well as for the Colombian newspaper Portafolio. Twitter: @juanisaza Previous reports can be consulted in www.slideshare.net/juanisaza This document can be reproduced partially or completely as long as the source and the link be provided. The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!
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