Chapter 5 One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India

(p. 112) Earth’s Population History 1 billion reached circa 1830 2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later) 3 billion reached circa 1929 (29 years later) 4 billion reached circa 1974 (15 years later) 5 billion reached circa 1987 (13 years later) 6 billion reached circa 1999 (12 years later)

World Population Trend Figure 5.1 (p. 113)

Figure 5.4 (p. 116) World Population Trend

(pp. 112-113) Dynamics of Population

Figure 5.2 (p. 114) Measures of Population Change crude birth rate # of births per 1,000 population crude death rate # of deaths per 1,000 population crude rate of natural increase growth per 1,000 population - =

Figure 5.3 (p. 115) Demographic Transition Model

Figure 5.5 (p. 118) Contrasting Demographic Transitions

Table 5.1 (p. 117) Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries

Figure 5.6 (p. 119) Rapid Growth Countries Population Pyramids

Figure 5.6 (p. 119) Moderate (and Slowing) Growth Countries

Figure 5.6 (p. 119) Slow Growth Countries

Figure 5.6 (p. 119) Population Decline Countries

http://www.census.gov/ The Future of a Rapid Growth Country: Afghanistan

The Future of a Population Decline Country Italy http://www.census.gov/

http://www.census.gov/ Breakdown by Ethnic Population Arizona 1990 Population = 3.7 million Arizona 1990 American Indian Population = 205,000

Western United States http://www.centerwest.org/futures/archive/people/ Make Your Own Population Pyramid on the Web: International http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html Canada http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyca.htm

Measures of Fertility Age-Specific Birth Rate Total Fertility Rate Zero Population Growth (ZPG) Replacement Fertility

Demographic Momentum • Occurs in an age structure with a large base and small top. • Very few elderly at the top of pyramid are available to die • Many children who will soon be in peak reproductive ages. • Compare the large number of children being born to the small number of elderly dying.

Name That Key Term

The difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate. Crude Rate of Natural Increase Annual number of live births per 1,000 population. Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Annual number of deaths per 1,000 population. Number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births in a year. Infant Mortality Rate Crude Death Rate (CDR) The number of births to women in a certain age cohort divided by the number of women in that cohort. Age-Specific Birth Rate All individuals in a certain age range. Cohort

A state in which the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate equals zero. The number of deaths exactly offsets the number of births. Zero Population Growth (ZPG) The average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years assuming the current fertility rates of women across all ages. Total Fertility Rate The fertility rate at which each female in a population produces on average one female baby who survives to the time when she herself can reproduce. Replacement Fertility A state in which forces of change are in balance. Equilibrium

Continued population growth long after replacement-level fertility rates have been reached. Demographic Momentum or Hidden Momentum A graph showing the number of males and females in discrete age cohorts (age categories). Population Pyramid Scattered settlements of a particular national group living abroad. Diaspora A model of population change from an equilibrium with high birth and death rates through a high-growth transition period in which death rates decline sooner than birth rates, to a new equilibrium with low birth and death rates. Demographic Transition Model

One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India Chapter 5 Case Study

After completing this chapter, you will be able to: • Relate the shape of population pyramids to a country’s birth, death, and growth rates. • Differentiate population pyramids of countries with rapid, slow, and negative population growth. • Understand the hidden momentum built into current population pyramids. • Recognize the hypothetical nature of population projections.

Figure 5.8a & 5.8b (p. 123) Background on India

India's population, 1901 to 2000 Figure 5.7 (p. 122)

Total fertility rate in India, 1971 to 2000 Figure 5.9 (p. 124)

Figures 5.10 & 5.12 (p. 125 & 126)

Infertility clinics like this one in New Delhi reflect India's shift away from coerced birth control to individual choices. While providing the opportunity for birth control to those who want it, some individuals such as those served by this clinic may be more concerned with the opposite problem -- not being able to have any children.

Indian emigrants – diaspora around the world Commonwealth country laborers Remittances and development Destinations today: U.S., Great Britain, Canada, Australia Implications of population growth in India Supplies of freshwater are stretched to the limit Soil exhaustion and erosion Cultivating low-lying, hurricane-prone islands Overgrazing Protein consumption is 20% below nutritional needs Unable to provide social services and education Makeshift housing in squatter settlements Nonetheless, remarkable economic growth, large middle class, and leadership in the information economy

Activity 1: Matching Demographic Descriptions and Population Pyramids Online Activity

Activity 2: Demographic Momentum Online Activity

Activity 3: Interpreting Population Change Using the understanding you have gained by projecting India’s population pyramids into this hypothetical future, give a carefully worded explanation of how it is possible for a population to continue growing for several generations after women begin averaging only two children each. It may be particularly helpful to review your answers for Scenario 2 in Activity 2.