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Shelburne Transition Town - Transportation
 

Shelburne Transition Town - Transportation

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Presentation made to Shelburne town looking at transportation long-term and issues of sustainability. Specifly peaking of resources, energy constraints, and what may be viable in 15,50, and 100 years ...

Presentation made to Shelburne town looking at transportation long-term and issues of sustainability. Specifly peaking of resources, energy constraints, and what may be viable in 15,50, and 100 years time.

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  • Who I am, why I’m here…who is in the audience?
  • We can do part 1, then break, then part 2, or do the whole thing at once – audience participation is strongly encourage because I’m not the expert in everything, but collectively we have great knowledge…
  • I was asked to talk about transportation, but we can’t talk about that without understanding the connections to other issues. Must break the “silos” and think in terms of systems     Make reference to the films they’re watching – End of Suburbia, how Cuba survived…etc.  
  • Has group already talked about peak oil?? M King Hubbert – scientist with Shell Oil who modeled resource depletion and rate of oil production over time – accurately predicted peak around 1970. rate of depletion is determined by rate of new oil well discovery. Steepness in drop is concern
  • Peak oil – production won’t be able to keep up with demand. Supplies may exist but processing will slow, be expensive. We’re not out oil but production will continue to decline
  • Another chart showing production vs demand
  • The discovery information is based on backdated information - what we now think old discoveries were worth. Some of the big oil fields in the Middle East were discovered about 1960. We are still discovering new fields, but they tend to be smaller and more difficult to extract. The discovery information includes only liquid oil, not oil in the form of tar or other solids.
  • Exxon believes U.S. fuel demand to keep cars, SUVs and pickups moving will shrink 22% between now and 2030.  "We are probably at or very near a peak in terms of light-duty gasoline demand," says Scott Nauman, Exxon's head of energy forecasting.
  • Annual spending for the purchase of petroleum in Vermont is up 30% from 2004 to 2008…BUT there was a 5% decrease in total fuel sold in for highway modes Decline in fuel consumption, particularly in 2008.
  • My 1969 camaro. We can make them bigger and faster, why not more fuel efficient? Does this speak to the relationship between government, auto makers, oil industry? Source: Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends 1975 Through 2003 (EPA420-R-01-008, April 2003). http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm
  • “ transportation” = vehicles? automobiles, trucks, buses, trains, airplanes, Infrastructure? roads, highways, railroads. Don’t forget about walking and biking. interconnected network of infrastructure that allows movement of people and goods. Post war boom, large labor force available, interstate system, American Dream – get your piece. Auto touring, National Parks, etc. National Lampoon’s Vacation – Disney World From Jon’s book… How did we get here? Auto, after war, highway development, decline of rail, just in time delivery, etc. (Amazon.com)  
  • What about the fuel distribution infrastructure? The fuel refinement infrastructure? The energy supplies to refine the fuels? The technology that allows for all of this to happen? If we shift to a different fuel source, then do we have to change all of the related components and infrastructure? That is, we don’t just buy a new type of vehicle and carry on. A whole new system has to be developed and put in place.
  • Growing middle class around the globe means that more and more and more people will become car owners. Vehicles are becoming more affordable (Tata in India), fuel is still relatively affordable. VT stats: The Vermont vehicle fleet composition continues to grow more fuel efficient, with a 202% increase (from 2005 to 2008) in hybrid vehicles registered. New vehicle purchases of full-size pick-up and sport utility vehicles each saw a 34% decrease from 2004 to 2008
  • This is start of “energy” section. Source: BTS, National Transportation Statistics, 2001. Hello, roads.
  • Smaller in VT – could be because of fewer transportation options (people have to drive) and smaller industrial/commercial sector
  • This shows where all the energy used comes out – mostly CO2 but others as well.
  • Arguably more important than fuel efficiency, Vehicle Miles Traveled directly affects gas consumption, emissions, and traffic patterns. A Prius owner who makes multiple, unnecessary trips and has a long work commute is no more virtuous than a Hummer driver who works close to home (Terra Pass article)
  • How much can we attribute this decline to the rise in fuel prices?
  • Snapshot of VT VMT…more recent years on next slide…
  • Going down…Chittenden County next slide…
  • And now for the Chittenden County stats…
  • Snapshot of infrastructure and safety… Greater Burlington is the second-largest metro area in the nation with a Pedestrian Danger Index of zero. In addition, the report calculated Vermont’s statewide Pedestrian Danger Index at only 7.2, far below the national average of 52.1
  • Based on Body Mass Index
  • We have never had an epidemic like this that we have been able to track so thoroughly and see. About 60 million adults, or 30 percent of the adult population, are now obese, which represents a doubling of the rate since 1980.
  • Areas of the country where air pollution levels persistently exceed the national ambient air quality standards may be designated "nonattainment." What happens if we fall out of attainment? Lots and lots of reporting to the government. Agencies such as the MPO and RPC have already begun to develop an air quality plan - we're trying to be proactive. Air quality could decrease (ie, ozone levels could rise) if we experience hot summers or an increase in overall air pollution
  • why is transportation so high? Fewer industrial emissions in VT compared to the nation as a whole. 
  • MJ/PKT=mega-joules per passenger-kilometer-traveled an SUV (which is one of the worst energy performers) with 2 passengers (giving 3 . 5 MJ / PKT) is equivalent to a bus with 8 passengers. Similarly, CA HRT with 120 passengers (27% occupancy giving 1 . 8 MJ / PKT) is equivalent to a midsize aircraft with 105 passengers (75% occupancy). Similarly, commuter rail (with one of the highest average per-PKT emission rates) at 34% occupancy (147 passengers) is equivalent to a bus with 13 passengers or a sedan with one passenger. 
  • PKT=passenger kilometer traveled
  • CO2e is a calculation used by climate scientists to account for other greenhouse gases—like methane—that contribute climate change. It converts those gases to "equivalent carbon dioxide," and is often used by scientists and policy makers to offer a single metric that can be used for all greenhouse gases.
  • two scenarios: everyone in vt is distributed evenly around state (ie, everyone is micro farmer) vs most live in dense area (Chitt Cty?) -- which is more sustainable? With a substantial number of members working in other communities, there is a clear link… Within the next 20 years the economic importance of regional economics will become even stronger as the costs of international and long-distance travel will increase. Trains, buses, car pools, telecommuting should be a near term solution to allow 'business as usual' while building community and reducing the demand for fossil fuels.  scenario 2 -- people would likely be driving less, living in smaller houses, and making better use of mass transit. The very small (or, more likely, non-existent) environmental impact of food transportation will be more than offset by the inherent efficiencies of city living. (terra pass article)
  • a freight train can move a ton of goods 460 miles on a single gallon of diesel. Your car can move a bag of groceries about 20 miles on a single gallon of gasoline. Sustainability is best measured by proximity to a  supermarket , not a farm. terra pass article
  • Long-term sustainability of a developed area where we want to live, work, and play... We all have different skills, we all don’t need to farm While the reality of this scenario may be difficult to imagine, this type of planning needs to occur if we want to envision a new world of opportunity with the double confrontation of climate change and the realities of peaking availability of resources. The emphasis on moving towards local systems should be tempered with a focus on community and not the hyper-idealized individual. We shouldn’t be encouraging everyone to move to 10 acre plots to grow and raise their own miniature farm. We need to appreciate that we all have unique skills and desires. Not everyone is or desires to be a full time farmer.
  • ISTEA was important because it created dedicated pots of money for specific programs, including walk/bike, transit, etc.
  • This is money that we program each year for projects. NOTE: Some projects in other categories include bike/ped facilities that are not included in the Bike/Ped category
  • what do we, as planners, do? We provide a vision for the region. we help communities address their transportation (and land use) issues. We provide information, resources, policy guidance, we even help build (sidewalks). Exchange information, learn from each other scenario planning - what does the future look like in 2060?
  • Transportation planners are considering climate change! This report is part on on-going work for the US Department of Transportation’s Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting and the Federal Highway Administration to highlight innovative actions and initiatives undertaken by states and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to incorporate climate change considerations as part of the transportation planning process.
  • http://htaindex.cnt.org
  • having a prius is great, but not if you're commuting a long distance every day. 
  • Do we use carrots or sticks or both?
  • 2009 cross-disciplinary study to examine transportation strategies to reduce GHG emissions. 9 categories: pricing/taxes, land use, nonmotorized, public trans, ride/carsharing, ITS, capacity, freight Strong economy-wide pricing measures, beyond local and regional pricing strategies, generate additional GHG reductions. For example, an additional fee (in current dollars) starting at the equivalent of $0.60 per gallon in 2015 and increasing to $1.25 per gallon in 2050 could result in an additional 17 percent reduction in GHG emissions in 2050 from the baseline — reductions in vehicle miles traveled and more rapid technology advances would drive this.
  • Start with story about working on car – needed a part, walked couple of blocks to parts store, didn’t have what I needed, but store 2 miles away did. Time to assess my options. walk/bike - was sick carshare - full  bus - time crunch own car - needed to be cool
  • what works best for making sustainable development and alternative transportation happen -- sticks or carrots?
  • Source: Classroom Surveys, Fall 2005 Brief them on each school… CP Smith 300 students K-4 CHMS 400 students 5-8 Hinesburg 550 students K-8
  • Sources: 1. 2. 3. Lee, et al, “Physical Activity and CHD in Women”, JAMA, 2001, 285:1447
  • Transportation can assist us by connecting to one another, but also we need to acknowledge that our system of transportation is most likely unsustainable and we must be planning to transition ourselves away from a fossil fuel based system.     It all becomes part of a larger transition town movement of less consumption, less travel, less energy - to a system more localised, more walking, and more community focused.

Shelburne Transition Town - Transportation Shelburne Transition Town - Transportation Presentation Transcript

  • Shelburne, Vermont   Transitioning Transportation “ Emerging issues, challenges ahead, opportunity present – vision required” November 12, 2009
  • 1. Peak Oil/Energy Crunch 2. Transportation and Sustainability 4. Health Impacts 5. Air Quality Part I 1. Sustainable Development 2. MPO 3. Planning and Development 4. What Can We Do? Part II
  • Pressing Issues
      • Climate Change
      • Peak Oil
      • Energy Sources
      • Globalization
      • Changing Demographics
      • Telecommunications
      • Air Quality
      • Land Use Choices
      • Waste 
      • Policies and government
  • Peak Oil Definition peak oil is the date when the peak of the world's conventional petroleum (crude oil) production rate is reached. After this date the rate of production is predicted to enter terminal decline (Wikipedia )
  • Peak Oil
      • We are not “out of oil”
      • But world-wide production capacity of petroleum-based fuels has peaked
      • Demand will continue to rise
      • Prices will rise
      • Prices will be unstable
    The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2010 oil companies will have to commit to projects producing almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia — or about 7m barrels a day — if the world is to avoid a supply crunch by the middle of the next decade
  • Future of Oil and Gas Falling Production, Increasing Demand… Source: Peak Oil Center
  • Future of Oil and Gas http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4172
  • Future of Oil and Gas http://omrpublic.iea.org/
    • The International Energy Agency and many other international monitors of oil and fuel supply and demand suggest that as the global economic recovery begins to take shape during 2010-2011 there will be an increase in commodity prices.
    • Demand for oil, steel, and aggregates will most likely grow. Production and supply constraints will most likely push the price of a barrel of oil higher again.
    • While the range of this growth is unknown, it is clear that oil prices will remain at elevated levels relative to 2006 affecting costs of transportation infrastructure.
  • Hungry for Fuel (or getting full?) Motor Vehicle Fuel Consumption in US, 2004-2007 (in millions of gallons) http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/ UVM TRC, 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 Gasoline 178,536 174,787 174,930 176,106
  • Change in Average Vehicle Characteristics, 1981-2003 (in %)
      • Study and practice of moving goods and services from one place to another. Need for substantial infrastructure when regions began trading with one another
      • Post-war boom took advantage of open land, cheap fuels, and large labor pool  
      • The US consciously instituted means to create well paying jobs in fields that require significant amounts of labor, are energy intensive, and require periodic upkeep that will perpetually maintain low unemployment and demand for resources 
      • Over the past 70 years the transportation system has taken advantage of very cheap fossil fuels to create means of access to every household and business connected to the immense web of freeways, arterials, collectors, and local streets.  The connections to everywhere from anywhere allowed communities that previously infrequently engaged in trade with neighboring communities able to shift skills, products, and trade from town to town. 
    Transportation
    • Allows the basic access needs of individuals and societies to be met safely and in a manner consistent with human and ecosystem health, and with equity within and between generations
    • Is affordable, operates efficiently, offers choice of transport mode, and supports a vibrant economy
    • Limits emissions and waste within the planet’s ability to absorb them, minimizes consumption of non-renewable resources, limits consumption of renewable resources to the sustainable yield level, reuses and recycles its components, and minimizes the use of land and the production of noise
    Sustainable Transportation
  • Current and Potential Car Fleet in India and China Can our planet sustain this? Source: Worldwatch Institute
  • Energy Consumption by Transportation Mode in the United States, 1960-2000 (in Trillion BTUs)
  • Energy Consumption (2008) – US UVM TRC 2009
  • Energy Consumption (2008) – VT UVM TRC 2009
  •  
  • US Public Road Mileage and VMT 1920 - 2007
  • US Vehicles Miles Traveled 1984-2008 What’s Happening?
  •  
  •  
  • Vermont VMT 1920-2000 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1920 1932 1940 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Calendar Year Millions of Miles
  • Vermont and US Annual Average VMT by Calendar Year (in millions) UVM TRC 2009
  •  
  • Getting Around Chittenden County
      • Drive alone 76%
      • Carpool 11%
      • Walk 6.5%
      • Work at home 4%
      • Ride transit 1.5%
      • Bike 0.5%
    2000 US Census, Journey to work data, Chittenden County
  • By the numbers…
      • 4 million miles of public roads in the US
      • 14,400 miles of public roads in Vermont
      • 1,200 miles in Chittenden County accommodating 1.4 billion vehicle miles each year
    • What about Safety?
      • 41,059 people died on our Nation's roads in 2007
        • 24,147 road departure fatalities (59%)
        • 13,040 speed related crashes (32%)
        • 8,657 intersection fatalities (21%)
        • 4,654 pedestrian fatalities (11%)
    • Vermont Fatalities:
        • 2007 – 66
        • 2008 – 73
        • As of November 3, 2009 - 56
    FHWA and VT DPS http://www.dps.state.vt.us/ghsp/
  • By the numbers…
      • 75% of Vermont workers drive alone to their jobs
      • Average commute in Chittenden County is 20 minutes
      • Only 25% of all trips are work-related
      • Average County resident travels 27.5 miles per day – about 21% of the Chittenden County workforce (nearly 20,000 people) arrives from outside the County
      • In 2006, 7% of Chittenden County households did not have access to a personal vehicle…but 40% of households had two vehicles and 19% had three or more
      • Vermonters are dependent on the automobile, with limited options available
        • 41.5% of VT municipalities have sidewalks (average 4.1 miles of length)
        • 8.1% have bicycle lanes (average length of 0.4 miles)
        • 21.5% have off-road bicycle/pedestrian paths (average length of 1.9 miles)
  • Energy Impacts of Transportation
      • US citizens comprise 5% of the world’s population but consume 25% of the world’s oil
      • About 46% of greenhouse gas emissions in VT are from the transportation sector
      • Biking and walking are the most energy efficient forms of transportation
  • Health Impacts
      • Obesity rate for VT adults increased by 77% from 1990 to 2002
      • In 2005 more than half (56%) of Vermont adults were overweight or obese
      • One-third of total direct health care costs in the U.S. are related to 15 diseases associated with obesity
      • Medical expenses attributable to adult obesity in Vermont: $141 Million Annually
  • Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1985 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
  • Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1988 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
  • Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1991 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
  • Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1994 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
  • Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1997 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
  • Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2000 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
  • Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2003 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%
  • Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2006 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%
      • Vermont is still “in attainment”…but we may not be for long
      • EPA new standard in 2008 of 0.075 parts per million (ppm), down from the previous standard of 0.080 ppm
      • Scientists call for a new ozone standard in the range of 0.060 ppm to 0.070 ppm
      • Air quality data from 2006 shows ozone in Chittenden County to be 0.068 ppm
    Air Quality
  • Vermont Sources of Greenhouse Gases Source: Vt Climate Change Commission
      • Transportation 46%
      • Residential / Commercial Fuel Use 28%
      • Agriculture 11%
      • Industrial Fuel Use 6%
      • Industrial Process 5%
      • Waste 3%
      • In State Electricity 1%
  • Air Quality – US UVM TRC 2009
  • Air Quality – Vermont UVM TRC 2009
  • Emissions (cough, cough) From http://www.sightline.org/maps/charts/climate-CO2byMode , copyright 2008 Sightline Institute, Seattle; used with permission.
  • Life Cycle Analysis ( It’s not just about tailpipe emissions…) Mikhail V Chester 1 and Arpad Horvath, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, 760 Davis Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA   http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/4/2/024008/erl9_2_024008.pdf?request-id=174216f0-7153-498a-96d0-88d34d946455
  • Life Cycle Analysis ( It’s not just about tailpipe emissions…) Mikhail V Chester 1 and Arpad Horvath, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, 760 Davis Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA   http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/4/2/024008/erl9_2_024008.pdf?request-id=174216f0-7153-498a-96d0-88d34d946455
  • Is there a magic number?
      • CO2e must be brought below 350ppm by 2050
      •  
      • Reduction of more than 80% from 1990 levels 
      • Would bring us to almost a 90% reduction from today's levels from GHG emissions 
      • Massive reductions are necessary...
    •  
    • Will behavior change alone get us to 350?
    • 350.org - http://www.350.org/understanding-350#14
    •  
      • Hansen, James, et al. Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? Submitted April 7, 2008. NASA climate scientist James Hansen's paper about the 350ppm target.
      • Hansen, James, et al. Target Atmospheric CO2: Supporting Material. Submitted April 7, 2008.
  • 1. Sustainable Development 2. MPO 3. Planning and Development 4. What Can We Do? Phew! Part II
    • In the near term rural areas on the outskirts or within the commuting distance of urban areas will have continued difficulty confronting transitioning their communities 
    • Economic and social link between communities and general urban areas – success of Shelburne is linked to the success of greater Burlington metro… and maybe even the Montreal and Boston economic sheds
    • Improve the efficiency and lower the energy requirements for travel and business to and from these economic engines
    • Support walking and biking / develop the local infrastructure to encourage shifting to these modes
    •  
    • Develop more densely but allow room for (and support) local food production, local building diversity, mixed land uses
    Sustainable Development
    • Short to Medium Term:
    • Support community level design 
      • Encourage proximity to local amenities, stores, community centers, churches 
      • Strong downtowns
      • Proximity to local food
    • Support initiatives to maintain and attract a younger generation to the community (reduce the 'braindrain' effect)
    • Find industries, such as the local food movement, that can have a market in a community. Buy Local campaigns and other ways to create local, cottage industries.
    Sustainable Development
      • Long-term sustainability ultimately determined by the extent to which natural resources are available and remain available within the specified energy inputs that we can maintain consistently
      • This type of planning is necessary if we want to envision a new world of opportunity faced with the double confrontation of climate change and resource peaking
      • Moving towards local systems should be tempered with a focus on community and not the hyper-idealized individual.
      • Should we all live on 10 acres and have personal mini-farms?
    Sustainable Development
  • Transportation Legislative History …in brief
      • 1991 – Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA)
      • 1998 – Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21)
      • 2005 – Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU)
        • Continued funding as in TEA-21
        • Included bike/ped pilot program: 4 communities receive $25 million…EACH!
        • Established Safe Routes to Schools Program
      • 2009 – Green Tea, RE-TEA, Post-Tea, NEXT-TEA???
      • A federally established organization responsible for transportation planning and project selection in its region (urbanized area with a population greater than 50,000)
      • CCMPO established in 1983
      • Originally served 9 towns; now all 18
    What’s an MPO?
  • Key Responsibilities
      • Metropolitan Transportation Plan
        • 20-year vision of region’s transportation
        • Updated every 5 years
        • Scenario Planning into 2060 this time
      • Transportation Improvement Program
        • 4-year list of projects
        • Updated annually
      • Unified Planning Work Program
        • Planning activities of the CCMPO staff, its member agencies and other transportation and planning agencies
        • Updated annually
  • So, what do we do?
      • Study congested traffic corridors to identify transportation improvements
      • Plan for new and upgraded transit, bicycle/pedestrian, and roadway facilities to ensure the efficient movement of people and goods
      • Educate the public and government officials on transportation related issues
      • Assist communities with developing solutions to high-priority local and regional transportation problems
  • How do we spend all that money?
  • How do we spend all that money?
      • Providing Hope and Inspiration
      • Planning, Researching, Educating
      • Coordinating with interested parties – engage in policy discussions across disciplines
      • Incorporating climate change and resource considerations into documents, long range planning – adopt performance measures
      • Scenario Planning
      • Quantify GHG emissions
      • Integrating land use
      • Link funding
    What Are Planners Doing?
  • They’re considering climate change! What Are Planners Doing?
  • Consider…
      • Aging population
      • Rural towns – limited transportation options
      • Funding structure – gas tax, property tax, etc.
      • Political and/or public support
      • Energy sources (peak energy?)
      • Land/habitat conservation
      • Free or cheap parking
      • Development patterns…
  • And…
      • Behavior change
      • Convenience
      • Freedom
      • Costs?
      • Problems with “user fees” like VMT, gas tax, etc. (do fuel cost increases affect rural residents more than urban residents?)
  • Do Development Patterns Matter? Can petroleum use and CO2 emissions be reduced by changes in development design?
    • Compact, Mixes-Use Development:
      • Land use patterns that increase the density, mix of uses, contiguity, connectedness, and pedestrian orientation of development
    • Location matters
    • High residential density in the middle of nowhere yields few benefits
    • Compact, mixed-use development ≠ multifamily housing only
    • Small-lot, single-family development can yield benefits
    TRB: Driving and the Built Environment
  • More compact development patterns are likely to reduce VMT Doubling residential density across a metropolitan area might lower household VMT by about 5-12%, and perhaps by as much as 25%... if coupled with higher employment concentrations, significant public transit improvements, mixed uses, and other supportive demand management measures Significant increases in more compact, mixed-use development result in only modest short-term reductions in energy consumption and CO2 emissions... ...but these reductions will grow over time TRB: Driving and the Built Environment Do Development Patterns Matter? Can petroleum use and CO2 emissions be reduced by changes in development design?
  • Population Densities – How Sustainable? SOURCE: P Newman, JR Kenworthy; Gasoline consumption and cities: a comparison of US cities with a global survey , Journal of the American Planning Association, 1989
  • Categories of Transportation Actions • Reduce travel demand for passengers and freight • Reduce vehicle emissions for cars and trucks •  Reduce the size and weight of vehicles • Expand use of low emitting (renewable) fuels • Remove fine particulates (black carbon or soot) • Reduce emissions from service equipment •  Teach people to drive differently Source: Vt Climate Change Commission
  • Moving Cooler: Strategies to Reduce GHG emissions
    • Transportation strategies to reduce GHG emissions fall into 4 categories:
    • Vehicle technology
    • Fuel technology
    • Travel activity
    • Vehicle and system operations
    • An integrated, multi-strategy approach that combines techniques such as travel activity, local and regional pricing, operational and efficiency strategies can contribute to significant GHG reductions.
    • Strategies that contribute the most to GHG reductions are:
        • local and regional pricing and regulatory strategies that increase the cost of single occupancy vehicle travel
        • regulatory strategies that reduce and enforce speed limits
        • educational strategies to encourage eco-driving behavior that achieves better fuel efficiency
        • land use and smart growth strategies that reduce travel distances
        • multimodal strategies that expand travel options.
    • Combinations of strategies create synergies that enhance the potential reductions from individual measures. In particular, land use changes combined with expanded transit services achieve stronger GHG reductions than when only one option is implemented.
    •  
  • Transportation Strategies
      • Improve/Expand Bike & Ped Infrastructure
      • Transportation System Management
      • Transportation Demand Management
      • Vehicle Maintenance, Driver Training
      • Procure Efficient Fleet Vehicles
      • Smart Growth Development
      • Improve Transit Service (frequency, convenience, quality, and promotion)
      • Benefits for Low GHG Vehicles (preferential parking)
      • Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Development
      • Transit Prioritization (signal prioritization)
      • Enforce (Lower?) Speed Limits
      • Ridesharing / Carpooling – use technology
      • Car-sharing
      • Congestion Pricing
      • Adopt & Enforce Anti-Idling rules
      • Provide Incentives to Change
      • Commuter Choice/Parking Cash Out
      • Transit Pricing Incentives
      • Biofuel expansion
    • Challenges
      • Lack of Regional Governance
      • Consensus on Regional Connections
      • Funding Constraints
      • Safety and Facility Limitations
      • Entrenched Car Culture
      • Sedentary Life Styles
      • Short political cycles
      • Industry Pressures
    Promoting Alternative Transport Knowledge and Money Are Not Barriers!
  • Bike/Ped Issues Who cares?!
      • Nearly 50% of all trips are 3 miles or less
      • More than $75 billion spent annually on road projects; less than $1 billion spent on bike/ped
      • Bicyclists and pedestrians represent 14% of all traffic fatalities
  • Latent Demand for Walking
  • Getting to School
      • Large shift once a week on Wednesdays and during special events
      • Walking on Wednesdays increased from 21% to 51% of students within a few weeks of program activities starting
      • Biking increased from 3% to 15% during Way to Go week
      • Large shift once a week on Wednesdays and during special events
      • Walking Wednesdays increased from 21% to 51% of students within a few weeks of program activities starting
      • Biking increased from 3% to 15% during Way to Go week
  • Health Benefits of Walking
      • 3 hrs/wk of brisk walking (3mph) reduced heart disease risk in women by 35-40%
      • Older adults who walked at least 4 hrs/week were 31% less likely to be hospitalized for heart disease or stroke
      • Women who walked at least 1 hr/wk reduced risk of CHD by 50%
  • Way to Go! 2009 by the numbers…  3,552 Participants (a 20% increase from last year’s total of 2,950 ) R 213,000 Pounds of CO 2 saved ( up 4% from last year’s 206,000 pounds)  237,000 Commuting miles saved ( no change from miles saved last year) $ 33,000 Total saved (@ $2.10 /gal) ( down 33% from $49,000 saved last year @$3.60 /gal) Did you know… … Vermonters drive an average of 17,000 miles per year … a typical Vermont car emits 13,600 pounds of carbon dioxide per year … by taking a commuting alternative twice a week, you would save $927 per year in fuel costs alone Brought to you by the Way to Go! Green Team
  • So What?? What does 213,000 pounds of CO2 look like? 225 barrels of oil Electricity for 12 households for one year How far is 237,000 miles? More than 9 times around the earth 85 trips from NY to LA How many are 3,552 people? About the same population as Charlotte, Vermont 21 passenger cars driven for one year
  • Transitioning!
    • Acknowledge the Limits we have in terms of Energy - water, waste, etc.
    • Acknowledge the impacts we have on our environment - Climate Change , Water, Hazardous Materials, Pollutants.
    • Time to Skill Up for Power Down!
  • What can you do regarding Climate Change?
      • Look to hybrid and or electric cars
      • Drive 15 miles less each week
      • Walk more for daily needs
      • Use your bike more
      • Carpool
      • Ride CCTA
      • Don’t idle
      • Keep your tires filled
  • What can you do regarding Peak Oil?
      • Educate family and friends about peak oil
      • Use less energy
      • Generate your own energy
      • Become more self sufficent
      • Start a compost pile
      • Learn to garden
      • Recycle
      • Turn off your computer monitor overnight
      • Provide Hope and Inspiration
      • Consider transportation a tool not a goal
      • Educate all
        • - Celebrate good actors
        • - Talk about emerging issues even though it’s sometimes tough
        • - Get to the kids
      • Engage in policy discussions across disciplines
      • Provide Hope and Inspiration
    What Can We All Do?
  • Anything is possible
  • Discussion / Questions For more information: Bryan Davis CCMPO (802) 660-4071 [email_address] Jon Slason http://nz.linkedin.com/in/jslason