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  • So how did many pay for this rise in tuition. Mostly loans, and increasingly private loans. Pay particular attention to the for-profits. I’ll get to that later.This graph only shows undergrads and more and more people are going on to graduate and professional schools. The numbers get even more depressing there.
  • AACRAO 2011

    1. 1. Higher Education at a Crossroads: <br />The Five Worrisome Trends<br />
    2. 2. Is the Higher Education Bubble About to Burst?<br /><ul><li>Housing: Easy access to credit, fueled demand (multiple offers), fueled prices (competing bids), fueled trading up and flipping…
    3. 3. Higher Education: Easy access to credit for students, fueled demand for higher-priced colleges, fueled application and enrollment growth (especially at for-profits), fueled colleges to borrow more to meet student “needs”</li></li></ul><li>The end of the climbing wall era?<br />
    4. 4. Worry #1The jobless recovery and what it means for families<br />
    5. 5.
    6. 6. Worry #2The end of the records: applications and enrollment<br />
    7. 7. Applications to College<br /><ul><li>In 2009, about 75% of colleges reported receiving more applications than in the previous year. Only 18% of institutions reported application decreases.
    8. 8. 74% of Fall 2008 freshmen applied to three or more colleges, an increase of 13 percentage points over the last 18 years. The percentage of students who submitted seven or more applications also increased, reaching 22% in Fall 2008.</li></ul>SOURCE: National Association for College Admission Counseling<br />
    9. 9. Increases in Undergraduate Enrollment, 1998-2008<br />
    10. 10. Projected Change in Number of High School Graduates 2011-2021<br />
    11. 11. Worry #3Unsustainable tuition rates and student debt<br />
    12. 12. Tuition & Fees<br />SOURCE: The College Board<br />
    13. 13. Tuition & Fees Compared to State Appropriations<br />SOURCE: The College Board<br />
    14. 14. Tuition Discounting<br />Percentage growth since 1990-91 in average price for tuition, fees, room, and board, adjusted for inflation:<br />
    15. 15. Distribution of Debt, 2007-8<br />
    16. 16. Total Debt for Graduate Degree Recipients, 2007-8<br />
    17. 17. Worry #4The for-profit bubble<br />
    18. 18. Undergraduate Enrollment by Type of College, 1998-2008<br />
    19. 19. 3-year default rates are 5 times as high as 2-year rates at some colleges<br />
    20. 20. Worry #5Families unwilling to pay big bucks just for the credential<br />
    21. 21. Academically Adrift?<br /><ul><li>Price-sensitive students and families
    22. 22. Asking: What are we paying for? Want quality and job placement. Defining and paying for the core experience.</li></ul>.<br />
    23. 23. Academically Adrift?<br /><ul><li>Limited or no learning by a majority of students
    24. 24. 45% of students made no gains on the Collegiate Learning Assessment during their first two years in college
    25. 25. 36% made no gains over the entire four years
    26. 26. How much faculty demand matters
    27. 27. Students who were assigned more books and more papers to write learned more
    28. 28. Those who spent more hours studying alone learned more
    29. 29. Field of study matters
    30. 30. Humanities, social sciences, hard sciences, and math did relatively well.
    31. 31. Students majoring in business, education, and social work did not. </li></li></ul><li>Increasingly, Faculty Members Are Part-Time and Nontenured<br />
    32. 32. We’re Both in the Information Delivery Business<br />Audrey Williams June: Academic workplace issues<br />Eric Hoover: Admissions | Head Count blog<br />Josh Fischman: Faculty and Technology<br />Jennifer Ruark: Features and Chronicle Review<br />Scott Carlson: Facilities and Architecture <br />Goldie Blumenstyk: College finance | For-profits| Technology transfer<br />Jeff Young: Technology | Teaching<br />David Glenn: Teaching | Curriculum | Assessment <br />
    33. 33. What Are the Signs?<br /> “Newspapers had a decade to transform themselves before being overtaken by the digital future. They had a lot of advantages: brand names, highly skilled staff members, money in the bank. They were the best in the world at what they did — and yet, it wasn't enough. The difficulties of change and the temptations to hang on and hope for the best were too strong.”<br /> -Kevin Cary<br /> The Chronicle, April 3, 2009 <br />
    34. 34. Contact<br />Jeffrey J. Selingo<br />jeff.selingo@chronicle.com<br /> Twitter: @jselingo<br />