Wildfire Modelling in the age of megafires

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Presentation at the Public Safety Communication Europe meeting at Brussels, 29th My 2013 in the Crisis Modelling Panel.
Dr Joaquin Ramirez, owner of Tecnosylva and Coordiantor of the MsC in Wildfires for the University of León, Spain

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Wildfire Modelling in the age of megafires

  1. 1. WildfireModellingin the age ofmegafires
  2. 2. Crisis ModellingPublic Safety CommunicationsEurope 2013Brussels, 29/May/2013Dr. Joaquín RamírezUniversidad de León&TECNOSYLVAjramirez@tecnosylva.comWildfireModellingin the age ofmegafires
  3. 3. Why does it matters?What is wildfire simulation?Who needs it?When is fire modeling useful?Where can it be of any help?How WM canhelp fire servicesnowdays?Outline
  4. 4. Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response System at NASA/GSFC http://youtu.be/eET7jwJOOqAWhy does it matters?
  5. 5. 050000100000150000200000250000300000020000004000000600000080000001000000012000000196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012acresburntFiresAcreshttp://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.htmlfires
  6. 6. 750 mfire season200.000ha lost680 mlosses
  7. 7. world is urbanizing: the rural exodus
  8. 8. aFire scenarios from 2010 to 2070 (ATSR Fire Atlas based)Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J, Hayhoe K, 2009. Global Pyrogeography:the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLoSONE 4(4): e5102. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102Climate projections include 2010–2039 (A,), 2040–2069 (B) and 2070–2099 (C).
  9. 9. fire starts
  10. 10. 4 min
  11. 11. 7 min
  12. 12. 9 min
  13. 13. 11 minavg speed 4,9 km/h
  14. 14. lowernumber offires butextremelyfast and intense
  15. 15. 11 km diameterfireballValencia jul 2013the age of megafires
  16. 16. Fire Fighting ParadoxThe better we are fightingfires, the bigger they getthose we cannot win
  17. 17. What is wildfire simulation?1938 Honey Fire, Louisiana
  18. 18. a young scienceHarry T. GisborneFirst truespecialist in forestfireresearchintheUSJack S. BarrowDirector oftheMissoulaFire LabTheMannGulch Fire (1949)
  19. 19. The science and art of FireSimWhere is it going to be in the next hours?Whencan we expect to stop it?Whatis the risk to this community?Allthesequestionshaveanspatio-temporalanswer
  20. 20. Richard C Rothermel“The beauty ofRothermel’s model … is thatit’s simple— it can be runquickly with a low-capabilityComputer” B. Butlerthe first operationalmodels
  21. 21. Models are out thereModels completed in period 1990-200712 Physical7 quasi-physical15 empirical5 quasi-empirical11 simulation22 mathematical analogousAndrew L. SullivanWildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007International Journal of Wildland FireVolume 18 Number 4 2009.
  22. 22. The first tools: USFS Mark Farsite (1991)
  23. 23. accurate 3d physical modelling isFireTEC. L. Winterkamp, R. R. Linn, Jonah J. Colman, William S. Smith
  24. 24. SLOW & EXPENSIVE
  25. 25. epleitez/1714341218SPACE AND ANALYSIS
  26. 26. FUELS.TOPOGRAPHY.WIND FIELDS.TEMPERATURE.MOISTURE.epleitez/1714341218map-ematics
  27. 27. Photo: DanSteinbergAssociatedPress
  28. 28. What isWildfire Analyst?Objetives: provide simulation capabilities in operationsscenarios, and the foundations for a fire behavior databaseDeveloped under the European Preview, Programme VI (R&D)framework, for the development of operational emergency tools(www.preview-risk.com)Integrating Rothermel´s (inc. Windninja & Farsite dll) , Kitralal McArthur models Bombers GRAF (Gen. Catalunya)
  29. 29. BestTech Innovation Wildfire Spanish Conf (SINIF2010)BestCollaboration Public-Private (El Mundo -2011)Nominee- BestESRI DesktopApp 2012
  30. 30. On scene inmediate fire analysiswww.wildfireanalyst.com
  31. 31. 1 sim /0.6 sec = 100/min
  32. 32. Who needs it?
  33. 33. If you know yourselfandyourenemy, you can win ahundred battles withoutjeopardy.SunTzu, Art of War 600 BC
  34. 34. Users expectrelevant information
  35. 35. fire progressionIgnition points from firedepartment CADs
  36. 36. fire progressionImmediate results where the firewill arrive in the next few hours
  37. 37. evacuation timerisk on vulnerable assets(homes, powerlines
  38. 38. evacuation timeAllows preparednessplanningfor evacuation purposes
  39. 39. on the fly fire modelling callibrationbased on incident real time observationswww.wildfireanalyst.com
  40. 40. Whitewater-Baldy ComplexKristen AllisonBLM FBAN Type 1100.000 ha
  41. 41. 550 kmNEW MEXICO
  42. 42. simulating from IR imagery
  43. 43. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERYTERRA SATELLITE28/06/2012 11:35Valencia47.000 ha
  44. 44. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERYTERRA SATELLITE29/06/2012 12:05FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARSBURNT AREA: 11.770haValencia47.000 ha
  45. 45. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERYTERRA SATELLITE30/06/2012 11:10FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARSBURNT AREA: 24.012 ha(+9.143)FIRE: ANDILLABURNT AREA: 5.371 ha
  46. 46. Raul QuilezFBAN Valencia
  47. 47. La Jonquera13.000 ha / 4 hrsStrategic analysis in 20 minMarc CastellonouAnalyst Chieftalonian Firefighters
  48. 48. accurate information for betterdecission makingWind
  49. 49. accurate information for betterdecission making
  50. 50. 60 % resources reallocatedbased on the simulation
  51. 51. LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEChttp://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtmlWhen & Where WM can help?
  52. 52. Weneedto take sims fromthe labLANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEChttp://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml
  53. 53. Plan de Prevencion de IncendiosForestalesde laComunidad de Madrid - 2013to
  54. 54. Pre-plan 65
  55. 55. Post- Plan 66
  56. 56. Wildfire Economic Impact AnalysisWildfire EconomicImpact AnalysisApplication
  57. 57. Texas Wildfire Risk Portal
  58. 58. demonstrate the value ofpreventiveactions
  59. 59. to the
  60. 60. to support safer operations
  61. 61. after incidents,provide valuable traininigIntegrating Wildfire analyst and CRISE for Sapiers Pompiers
  62. 62. How can WM help nowdays?
  63. 63. Low use in EuropeanFF services (EUFIRELAB, 2005)1Prevention and mainly USA big firesInput data hard to process and not appropiatescalesResults oriented more to laboratory than toreal fire fightingHIGH NEED BUT LOW TRUST
  64. 64. Prevention• Fuelmanagement• Analyzefirebreaksefficiency• ResourceslocationoptimizationOperations• Every AlarmEvaluation• Multipleincidents• IAP support• Integration inDSSPost fire• Fire Scenarios• Impactassesment• What if?• Historicalanalysis• New localmodelsNew Uses of WM
  65. 65. Users needsolve economicrelevant problems
  66. 66. Helping tomeasuresuccess
  67. 67. St. Clair Stone FireWildfire Simulation – ComparisonActual Perimeter13:49 80
  68. 68. Accumulative Population Impacted02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8004 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 5216137 1602444796151,0521,229 1,2461,3451,4181,5101,704Hour of WildfireSt. Clair Stone Fire SimulationAccumulative Residential Population ImpactedBy Hour Progression of Wildfire13:49 81
  69. 69. Total Structures Impacted0501001502002503004 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 5239602032137692581052133498189StructuresImpactedHour of WildfireSt. Clair Stone Fire SimulationNumber of Structures Impacted by WildfireBy Hour of Progression13:49 82
  70. 70. Accumulated Structure Loss$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$1004 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52$3.9$7.2 $8.1$12.8$24.4$32.1$66.8$73.7 $75.7 $77.9$81.5$89.0$93.6$inMillionsHour of WildfireSt. Clair Stone Fire SimulationAccumulative Potential $ Loss of StructuresBy Hour Progression of Wildfire13:49 83
  71. 71. Click the imageto play the AFCYouTube videothat describesthe analysis13:49 84
  72. 72. Optimizing the riskmanagement
  73. 73. potentialimpactanalysis
  74. 74. Overhead Primary & Fuses & Transformers - Risk Ratings
  75. 75. Users expecteasy.
  76. 76. INTUITIVEmylesdgrant/5434978427
  77. 77. hoyvinmayvin/516609595
  78. 78. REALTIMEarjanrichter/4464855447
  79. 79. IS vs. WAS
  80. 80. dafekt1ve/3364843233IS
  81. 81. massdep/5804621225WAS
  82. 82. On scene inmediate analysison megafireswww.firesponse.com/wildfirengine
  83. 83. Wildfire Simulation is helping to betterunderstand the biggest natural risk worldwideActual systems are ready to help moreprepared usersTo know more:Martin E. Alexander. Some Random Thoughts on Fire Behavior Research and Operational Fire Behavior Considerations. KeynoteAddress 2: Fire Paradox 4th Plenary Meeting, 9-13 June 2008, Chania, Crete, Greecehttp://wildfirelessons.net/documents/M_E_Alexander_Keynote_Address_4th_Plenary_Meeting.pdf
  84. 84. 1977-2009www.paucostafoundation.orgfire is a good servant but a bad master
  85. 85. www.tecnosylva.comwww.fiRESPONSE.comwww.WildfireAnalyst.comMore Information
  86. 86. Crisis ModellingPublic Safety CommunicationsEurope 2013Brussels, 29/May/2013Dr. Joaquín RamírezUniversidad de León&TECNOSYLVAjramirez@tecnosylva.comWildfireModellingin the age ofmegafiresThankYou

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