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Sea Level Rise Inundation Mapping for the ART Project
 

Sea Level Rise Inundation Mapping for the ART Project

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Presentation given at the H2O 2012 Conference in San Diego.

Presentation given at the H2O 2012 Conference in San Diego.

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    Sea Level Rise Inundation Mapping for the ART Project Sea Level Rise Inundation Mapping for the ART Project Presentation Transcript

    • Justin Vandever, PE, Kris May, PhD PE, Brendan Gunn, CFM justin.vandever@aecom.com Headwaters to Ocean 2012 Conference May 29-31, 2012 San Diego, CA
    • Project Team Project Management Team o MTC: Ashley Nguyen, Brenda Dix o BCDC: Wendy Goodfriend, Joe LaClair, Lindy Lowe o Caltrans: Stephen Yokoi, Richard Fahey Consultant Team o AECOM: Claire Bonham-Carter, Yanna Badet, Marcia Tobin, Sarah Heard, Jeff Chan, Ryan Park, Kris May, Justin Vandever, Brendan Gunn, Bob Fish, Stan Kline o Arcadis: Peter Wijsman, Lucas Paz o Geografika: Megan Gosch o 3D Visions: Kate Gillespie
    • ART and FHWA BackgroundAdapting to Rising Tides Project Partnership between SF Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) and NOAA Coastal Services Center Increase preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise Evaluate shoreline impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, identify adaptation strategies and planning tools
    • ART and FHWA BackgroundFederal Highway Administration Risk Assessment Conceptual Model  MTC, Caltrans, and BCDC collaborated on subregional planning pilot project  Provides a framework for conducting risk and vulnerability assessments  Test Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) conceptual Risk Assessment model to assess SLR risks to transportation infrastructure  Portion of Alameda County shoreline selected for study area
    • Pilot Study: Alameda County One of Several Pilot Bay Studies to test the FHWA Bridge Conceptual Model Previous (Vulnerability of USGS/BCDC Alameda Maps Transportation Assets to Island Climate Change) Alameda County: Diverse Airport Range of Shore Protection and Transportation Assets Project Extent: San Mateo Bridge Emeryville to Union City Salt Ponds
    • Federal HighwayAdministrationVulnerability andRisk AssessmentConceptual Model1. Data Asset Inventory2. Asset Screening and Prioritization3. Climate and Shoreline Information4. Vulnerability Assessment5. Risk Assessment6. Next Steps/ Adaptation Strategies
    • Transportation Asset InventoryRoadsTransitFacilitiesBike/PedestrianMap: Geografika
    • Shoreline Asset Inventory Identify the topographic feature that controls inundation landward of shoreline (e.g., levee, road embankment, beach, etc) May not be the true “shoreline” (e.g., MHW, etc) Shoreline Categories 1. Engineered Flood Protection Structures 2. Engineered Shoreline Protection Structures 3. Non-Engineered Berms 4. Wetlands 5. Natural Shorelines (Non-Wetland) Shoreline delineation will be used later to determine vulnerability to inundation
    • Shoreline Asset Categories Engineered Shoreline Protection Flood Protection Levee Natural Shoreline (non-wetland)Non-Engineered Berm Images: Google Earth Wetland Shoreline
    • Shoreline Categorization MapsWetland BermsEngineeredShorelineProtection Natural Engineered Flood Protection Maps: Arcadis
    • Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Inundation Mapping Sea Level Rise o 16” (high-end 2050) o 55” (mid-range 2100) Inundation Map Scenarios o MHHW + 16” o MHHW + 55” o 100-yr SWL + 16” o 100-yr SWL + 55” o 100-yr SWL + 16” + wind/wave o 100-yr SWL + 55” + wind/wave Map: Geografika Include depth of inundation and hydraulic connectivity
    • Inundation Scenarios MHHW – Mean Higher High Water. Typical daily high tide. Frequent inundation. 100-yr Stillwater Level (SWL) – Extreme high tide. Very rare event. Also, the 1%-annual-chance tide level. No wave or local meteorological effects. 100-yr SWL + wind and wave effects. Includes wind setup and wave setup at the shoreline. Includes wave height effects (but not wave runup or overtopping). Extreme coastal flood event. wind/wave
    • Inundation Mapping Inputs Topography: 2m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using 2010 CA Coastal LIDAR (USGS) Daily and extreme tide levels – USGS TRIM2D (Knowles, 2009) Storm wave scenarios – FEMA MIKE21 hydrodynamic model: wind setup, wave setup, wave height (DHI, 2010) Hydraulic Connectivity – resolved using NOAA CSC methodology (Marcy et al., 2011) Depth of Inundation grids – depth along shoreline and at transportation assets
    • Ocean Protection Council LIDAR  USGS 2010  Complete Coverage to 10 m Contour  2 m DEM used for inundation mapping  Resolves Levees
    • USGS TRIM2D Modeling Hydrodynamic Model Extraction Points 100-yr Water Level Time Series (Detrended = SLR trend removed)Estimate MHHW and 100-yr SWL at each extraction point
    • FEMA MIKE21 Modeling  DHI (2010) for FEMA  32-year Continuous Hindcast  Water Levels Swell (MIKE21 HD)  Wind Waves (MIKE21 SW)  Ocean Swell (MIKE21 SW)
    • NOAA Methodology Sea Level Rise Viewer (Marcy et al, 2011) Hydraulic Connectivity Inputs: o Water Surface Elevation (DEM) at Shoreline o Transect Definition o DEM (at a resolution that resolves shoreline features)
    • Mid Century (16” SLR)MHHW 100-yr SWL Maps: Geografika
    • Mid Century (16” SLR)100-yr SWL Shoreline Overtopping PotentialMaps: Geografika
    • End of Century (55” SLR) Maps: GeografikaMHHW 100-yr SWL
    • End of Century (55” SLR) Shoreline Overtopping Potential100-yr SWL Maps: Geografika
    • Maps Help Quantify Exposure Overlay Transportation Assets with 6 Inundation Maps Assess for each Asset, for each Scenario: o Is it Inundated? o Max Depth of Inundation? Distance from asset to overtopped shoreline Percent of shoreline overtopped
    • Risk Profiles Road Networks o Interstates/Freeway o Bridges/Tubes o Local Streets Transit o Bus Routes o Bart Alignments o Rail Corridors Facilities Bike & Pedestrian Paths
    • Wrap-up Download the report online: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/climate/  Completed in Nov. 2011  Briefing Book  Full Report Thank youJustin Vandever, PEAECOMOakland, CAjustin.vandever@aecom.com