Sea Level Rise Inundation Mapping for the ART Project

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Presentation given at the H2O 2012 Conference in San Diego.

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Sea Level Rise Inundation Mapping for the ART Project

  1. 1. Justin Vandever, PE, Kris May, PhD PE, Brendan Gunn, CFM justin.vandever@aecom.com Headwaters to Ocean 2012 Conference May 29-31, 2012 San Diego, CA
  2. 2. Project Team Project Management Team o MTC: Ashley Nguyen, Brenda Dix o BCDC: Wendy Goodfriend, Joe LaClair, Lindy Lowe o Caltrans: Stephen Yokoi, Richard Fahey Consultant Team o AECOM: Claire Bonham-Carter, Yanna Badet, Marcia Tobin, Sarah Heard, Jeff Chan, Ryan Park, Kris May, Justin Vandever, Brendan Gunn, Bob Fish, Stan Kline o Arcadis: Peter Wijsman, Lucas Paz o Geografika: Megan Gosch o 3D Visions: Kate Gillespie
  3. 3. ART and FHWA BackgroundAdapting to Rising Tides Project Partnership between SF Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) and NOAA Coastal Services Center Increase preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise Evaluate shoreline impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, identify adaptation strategies and planning tools
  4. 4. ART and FHWA BackgroundFederal Highway Administration Risk Assessment Conceptual Model  MTC, Caltrans, and BCDC collaborated on subregional planning pilot project  Provides a framework for conducting risk and vulnerability assessments  Test Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) conceptual Risk Assessment model to assess SLR risks to transportation infrastructure  Portion of Alameda County shoreline selected for study area
  5. 5. Pilot Study: Alameda County One of Several Pilot Bay Studies to test the FHWA Bridge Conceptual Model Previous (Vulnerability of USGS/BCDC Alameda Maps Transportation Assets to Island Climate Change) Alameda County: Diverse Airport Range of Shore Protection and Transportation Assets Project Extent: San Mateo Bridge Emeryville to Union City Salt Ponds
  6. 6. Federal HighwayAdministrationVulnerability andRisk AssessmentConceptual Model1. Data Asset Inventory2. Asset Screening and Prioritization3. Climate and Shoreline Information4. Vulnerability Assessment5. Risk Assessment6. Next Steps/ Adaptation Strategies
  7. 7. Transportation Asset InventoryRoadsTransitFacilitiesBike/PedestrianMap: Geografika
  8. 8. Shoreline Asset Inventory Identify the topographic feature that controls inundation landward of shoreline (e.g., levee, road embankment, beach, etc) May not be the true “shoreline” (e.g., MHW, etc) Shoreline Categories 1. Engineered Flood Protection Structures 2. Engineered Shoreline Protection Structures 3. Non-Engineered Berms 4. Wetlands 5. Natural Shorelines (Non-Wetland) Shoreline delineation will be used later to determine vulnerability to inundation
  9. 9. Shoreline Asset Categories Engineered Shoreline Protection Flood Protection Levee Natural Shoreline (non-wetland)Non-Engineered Berm Images: Google Earth Wetland Shoreline
  10. 10. Shoreline Categorization MapsWetland BermsEngineeredShorelineProtection Natural Engineered Flood Protection Maps: Arcadis
  11. 11. Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Inundation Mapping Sea Level Rise o 16” (high-end 2050) o 55” (mid-range 2100) Inundation Map Scenarios o MHHW + 16” o MHHW + 55” o 100-yr SWL + 16” o 100-yr SWL + 55” o 100-yr SWL + 16” + wind/wave o 100-yr SWL + 55” + wind/wave Map: Geografika Include depth of inundation and hydraulic connectivity
  12. 12. Inundation Scenarios MHHW – Mean Higher High Water. Typical daily high tide. Frequent inundation. 100-yr Stillwater Level (SWL) – Extreme high tide. Very rare event. Also, the 1%-annual-chance tide level. No wave or local meteorological effects. 100-yr SWL + wind and wave effects. Includes wind setup and wave setup at the shoreline. Includes wave height effects (but not wave runup or overtopping). Extreme coastal flood event. wind/wave
  13. 13. Inundation Mapping Inputs Topography: 2m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using 2010 CA Coastal LIDAR (USGS) Daily and extreme tide levels – USGS TRIM2D (Knowles, 2009) Storm wave scenarios – FEMA MIKE21 hydrodynamic model: wind setup, wave setup, wave height (DHI, 2010) Hydraulic Connectivity – resolved using NOAA CSC methodology (Marcy et al., 2011) Depth of Inundation grids – depth along shoreline and at transportation assets
  14. 14. Ocean Protection Council LIDAR  USGS 2010  Complete Coverage to 10 m Contour  2 m DEM used for inundation mapping  Resolves Levees
  15. 15. USGS TRIM2D Modeling Hydrodynamic Model Extraction Points 100-yr Water Level Time Series (Detrended = SLR trend removed)Estimate MHHW and 100-yr SWL at each extraction point
  16. 16. FEMA MIKE21 Modeling  DHI (2010) for FEMA  32-year Continuous Hindcast  Water Levels Swell (MIKE21 HD)  Wind Waves (MIKE21 SW)  Ocean Swell (MIKE21 SW)
  17. 17. NOAA Methodology Sea Level Rise Viewer (Marcy et al, 2011) Hydraulic Connectivity Inputs: o Water Surface Elevation (DEM) at Shoreline o Transect Definition o DEM (at a resolution that resolves shoreline features)
  18. 18. Mid Century (16” SLR)MHHW 100-yr SWL Maps: Geografika
  19. 19. Mid Century (16” SLR)100-yr SWL Shoreline Overtopping PotentialMaps: Geografika
  20. 20. End of Century (55” SLR) Maps: GeografikaMHHW 100-yr SWL
  21. 21. End of Century (55” SLR) Shoreline Overtopping Potential100-yr SWL Maps: Geografika
  22. 22. Maps Help Quantify Exposure Overlay Transportation Assets with 6 Inundation Maps Assess for each Asset, for each Scenario: o Is it Inundated? o Max Depth of Inundation? Distance from asset to overtopped shoreline Percent of shoreline overtopped
  23. 23. Risk Profiles Road Networks o Interstates/Freeway o Bridges/Tubes o Local Streets Transit o Bus Routes o Bart Alignments o Rail Corridors Facilities Bike & Pedestrian Paths
  24. 24. Wrap-up Download the report online: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/climate/  Completed in Nov. 2011  Briefing Book  Full Report Thank youJustin Vandever, PEAECOMOakland, CAjustin.vandever@aecom.com

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