Why we miss the future


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  • Uncertainty is a barrier to predictability which leaders must overcome.Predictability is good. - Marx and Weber say, it makes up an important part of our need for safety and security (Maslow 1943). It has survival value; provides control, frees us from fear and anxiety; and, allows us to plan and budget for the future. It times of predictability we have control. The ability to use analytical thinking is apparent.Prediction is good but not available in times of uncertainty. Complexity and uncertainty bring unknown outcomes, unknown probabilities which lead to an inability to predict the success of actions. In times of uncertainty we lack control and make decisions using two types of information: vicarious descriptions and personal experience. The ability to think strategically is needed.SL Takeaway -. A core attribute of strategic leaders is the possession of a strategic mindset which enables them to learn, to change, and develop wisdom. It enables leaders to understand prevailing worldviews driving their context. It allows them to deal with uncertainty and an emerging future.
  • In the Gap. . . where uncertainty is dominantPattern responses and habitual thinking no longer work wellWe must move our brains from automatic pilot to manual steering.You are probably stuck in your habitual mode of thinking. Thinking styles become automatic over the years, and because for the most part they work well for us, we have no incentive to change them. But when your thinking patterns limit your ability to approach problems creatively, it is time to challenge old habits.Agility is the capability to switch from a strategic mindset -“Why and What” - to a tactical mindset -“How and When” - in a rapid and iterative processes. Agility enables leaders to understand the prevailing worldviews driving their context, and helps them identify and use design tactics that work under postmodern conditionSynthesis Works best under conditions of Uncertainty - where data doesn’t exist – create it -Analysis Works best under conditions of Certainty – uses data that exists
  • The phrase "Think Different" refers to what to think as opposed to how to thinKCreative thinking is defined in the dictionary of the American Psychological Association (Vanderbos, 2006) as mental processes leading to a new invention, solution, or synthesis in any area Creative ideas are both novel and valuable - original and useful ideas (Amabile, 1996; West, 2002).  innovation refers to the use of a new idea or method, whereas invention refers more directly to the creation of the idea or method itself.Innovation refers to the successful implementation of creative ideas or a capacity to improve existing products and/or processes which produce value to the organization is more than just having a creative idea. It requires selling the idea inside and outside the organization. By reorganizing available knowledge, facts, and information Strategic thinking is about thinking centered on ends, strategies, and tactics. It is only meaningful in a context. The greater the capacity to use strategic thinking skills; the greater the ability to make consequential decisions about ends, strategies, and tactics. Great strategic thinkers have a systems perspective, are intent driven, creative, intuitive, integrative, and analytical
  • This nested framework demonstrates how mental models that are aligned with the dominant paradigm. This alignment reinforces and sustains the paradigm. As educators conform to the requirements of the paradigm and mental models they develop mindsets (attitudes) about the value and effectiveness of the paradigm and the related mental models. The mindsets influence choice of behavioral strategies; that is, their attitudes toward the paradigm and mental models help them to devise strategies for how to do their work. As they implement their strategies, observable behavior is manifested. Successful behaviors are rewarded, which, in turn, reinforces the mindsets, mental models, and the paradigm. This interconnectedness and reciprocal reinforcement is unavoidable and powerful.Mental ModelsThe concept of mental models was first proposed by Craik (1943). He said, “…the mind constructs ‘small-scale models’ of reality that it uses to anticipate events, to reason, and to underlie explanation” (cited in Johnson-Laird, Girotto, & Legrenzi, 1998, Introduction, para. 1). Johnson-Laird (1983) is one of the foremost authorities of mental model theory. He believed that people construct cognitive representations of what they learn and what they think they know. He called these representations “mental models.” Senge (1990) described mental models as “…deeply ingrained assumptions, generalizations, or even pictures or images that influence how we understand the world and how we take action” (p. 8).
  • Bundy, Shropshire & Bucholtz (2013) AOM ReviewSalience – The degree to which a proposal resonates with the logic and priorities of ManagementHigher salience issues are those where the proposal relates to the pursuit of goals and the strategic frame Lower salience unrelatedCognitive dissonance occurs when consistent with one condition but not the otherYou are probably stuck in your habitual mode of thinking. Thinking styles become automatic over the years, and because for the most part they work well for us, we have no incentive to change them. But when your thinking patterns limit your ability to approach problems creatively, it is time to challenge old habits.What would you like to see changed at work to make the work more satisfying and you more effective?What commitments does you complaint imply?What are you doing that is keeping your commitment from being realized?If you imagine doing something different from the undermining behavior do you detect in yourself any discomfort, worry fear By engaging this undermining behavior, what worrisome outcome are you committed to preventing?Recognize the Blinders Mental filters (patterned responses)Overconfidence (far too certain)Penchant for confirming rather than disconfirming evidenceDislike for ambiguity (want certainty)Group think (Abilene effect) PJH Schoemaker and GS Day Driving through the Fog, Long Range Planning 37 (2003): 127-142
  • Where does it come fromFixed or GrowthAdjustedPerspective transformation is highly subjective, personal, and changeable. "Meaning;‘ Mezirow (1991, p. xiv) writes, "exists within ourselves rather than in external forms such as books," and "our present interpretations of reality are always subject to revision or replacement:' To test whether our new meanings are true or authentic, Mezirow (1995, p. 53) says we must "seek the best judgment of the most informed, objective, and rational persons we can find" and enter into "a special form of dialogue called "discourse": "Discourse involves an effort to set aside bias, prejudice, and personal concerns and to do our best to be open and objective in presenting and assessing reasons and reviewing the evidence and arguments for and against the problematic assertion to arrive at a consensus" (Mezirow, 1995, p. 53). "Discourse is not a war or a debate; it is a conscientious effort to find agreement, to build a new understanding“ (1996,p.170). Perspective transformation, key to transformative learning, is thus defined as "the process of becoming critically aware of how and why our presuppositions have come to constrain the way we perceive, understand, and feel about our world; of reformulating these assumptions to permit a more inclusive, discriminating, permeable, and integrative perspective; and of making decisions or otherwise acting on these new understandings
  • A strategic mindset requires that you are able to think through Synthesis as well as Analysis; Nonlinearly as well as Linearly; Abstractly as well as Concretely.SLers create #strategy in the form of a statement of strategic intent to align, integrate, and develop coherence around a common, focused direction.SL Theory - The Statement of Intent is your #strategy; it describes your path to the future. SLers use the Strategic Thinking Protocol to develop and set their strategy. Try it!. It will move you from good to great!strategic thinking enables the leader to recognize interdependencies, interrelationships and patterns, and make consequential decisions using both powers of analysis and intuition.Individuals with strategic thinking skills have the ability :To apply information and concepts to practice. To see the organization as a whole. To understand how various parts of the organization relate to and affect eachother.To diagnose, analyze, and synthesize. To discern meaning in and to establish relationships among events and bits of information that at first glance would appear to be discrete and unrelated.
  • Framing is the ability to shape the meaning of communications, events or issues. Reframing, however, serves two functions. It is first used to change the way a thought is crafted so it influences either the understanding or the resolution of an issue or communication.It is also a powerful strategic thinking skill that enables is possessor to understand the conceptual and emotional underpinnings of events, issues and behavior. Here is how it works.
  • if you see the picture exactly as it is, you are using the left side of the brain. Now stare at it and you will see the figure shift; you are now using your right brain. SLers know this as reframing -- Stare at this picture until you see the man turn his face. If you can see the shift - Press - like
  • is a term used in the watchmaking industry to refer to the economic upheavals caused by the advent of quartz watches in the 1970s and early 1980s, which largely replacedmechanical watches. It caused a decline of the Swiss watchmaking industry, which chose to remain focused on traditional mechanical watches, while the majority of world watch production shifted to Asian companies who embraced the new technology.onetheless, the Accutron was a powerful catalyst, as by that time the Swiss watch manufacturing industry was a mature industry with a centuries-old global market and deeply entrenched patterns of manufacturing, marketing and salesBy 1983, the crisis reached a critical point. The Swiss watch industry, which had 1,600 watchmakers in 1970, had now declined to 600.Because, thought differently and unencumbered with the Swiss frame ofreference captured the market
  • Ferdinand de Lessups > FERDINAND DE LESSEPS - BIOGRAPHY Printable version Ferdinand de Lesseps, diplomat, creator of Suez, the pioneer behindFerdinand de Lesseps was born in Versailles, on November 19th 1805. His father,, Mathieu de Lesseps, who was a diplomat, was on leave at the time.On his father's side, Ferdinand's roots firmly lay in the Basque Country, where for many generations, his family had been highly respected, with distinguished soldiers and lawyers in the town of Bayonne. In the 18th century, however, somewhat more adventurous tastes appeared in the Lesseps family. Barthélemy de Lesseps, Ferdinand's uncle, still young himself, got to know the French explorer La Pérouse and set sail aboard the Astrobale. After a two-year voyage, La Pérouse appointed de Lesseps to return to France to tell the king Louis XV all about the expedition. Barthélémy then started a 14-month odyssey across the icy wastes of Siberia before giving to the king the lastest news received from La Pérouse expedition before its disappearance.Mathieu, Ferdinand's father and Barthélemy's younger brother, started rather young a diplomatic career which lead him around the Mediterranean sea, in Morocco, Libya and Spain. In 1803 or 1804, Napoleon appointed him "CommissaireGénéral" in Egypt. With an outstanding perspicacity, Mathieu, at once realised the important role the brilliant adventurer Mehemet-Ali could play in Egypt's government. Indeed, Mehemet-Ali would become the real founder of the modern Egyptian State. Lesseps supported Mehemet-Ali all along his rise to power. When Mehemet-Ali became viceroy, Lesseps guaranteed him the support of France. The friendship forged then was to be extremely useful to Ferdinand, some 50 years later.His mother was born Catherine de Grivegnée and came from a family settled in Spain, but with Flemish origin. Ferdinand often travelled to Madrid to visit his cousin, the Countess of Montijo. He met there the young Eugénie, who would become the Empress of France.. Ferdinand formed a close friendship with Eugénie and on several occasions Ferdinand turned to his niece to win the Emperor's favour. Eugenie for her part followed the advice which her uncle lavished on her.The diplomatWhen he was 20, at the request of his uncle Barthélemy, Ferdinand started a diplomatic career. By his uncle's side, he became a diplomatic attaché in the French embassy in Lisbon for two years. He then spent a few years with his father who was chargé d'affaires in Tunis.In 1832, Ferdinand was appointed as vice-consul in Alexandria in Egypt. By then, Mehemet Ali had already thoroughly transformed his Country. His ambitious policy had given the country modern institutions and Egypt was involved in major projects with the help of European engineers and administrators, a very large number of whom were French.In 1835, he is appointed consul général in Alexandria where he stayed for a further two years. Mehemet Ali then asked him to educate one of his youngest sons, Mohammed Saïd, with whom he got on particularly well.In 1837, Ferdinand married AgatheDelamalle who was to die in 1853 and whom he had five children.He continued his consular career in The Netherlands and Spain. In 1849 he was appointed to lead negotiations during the French campaign in Rome. He became the scapegoat for the failure of the Rome mission and his diplomatic career was overhe creator of SuezFor several years, Lesseps became a farmer. through his mother-in-law, MmeDelamalle, had purchased a large property in the Indre district. The manor, La Chesnaye, an old residence of Agnès Sorel, needed renovated and the land improved. Lesseps became seriously involved in this activity. In his spare time, he continued working on the files he has initiated during his first stay in Egypt, between 1832 and 1837. Among them was work which had been undertaken in the Suez isthmus, in particular a survey made by Le Père during the Napoleonic campaign as well as complementary investigations by a French engineer, Linant de Bellefonds. Lesseps was still enthusiastic with a project which, at the time, was called "Canal des DeuxMers" (Two Seas Canal). In 1852, he had even written an report on the project which he had made translated into Arabic and submitted to the viceroy Abbas Pacha. But this initial attempt unfortunately came to nothing.Two years later, Lesseps learned than Abbas Pacha had just died and that one of Mehemet Ali's youngest sons had succeeded him - Mohammed Saïd, whom he had got to know well during his first stay in Egypt. He wrote to him at once, offering his congratulations. By return post, Lesseps received from Said an invitation to visit Egypt. On 7 November 1854, he disembarked in Alexandria. he took with the viceroy the project which so gripped him.On 30th November 1854, Mohamed Saïd granted "his friend Ferdinand de Lesseps exclusive powers to form and lead an international company to cut through the Suez isthmus and to operate a canal between the two seas".The pioneer of PanamaIt was in 1879 during a geographical conference that Lesseps, then aged 74, became chairman of the French committee in charge of realising an inter-oceanic canal in Central America. But this project would not know the same success as the Suez Canal for it came to a temporarily failure, with political and financial scandals.The foundations laid by Lesseps in Panama however were solid enough to enable the United States to take over the project and complete it in the early 20th century. Still today, the name Lesseps commands much respect in Panama.Leaders must be trained to understand and address strategic themes emanating from that context. According to recent research, the essence of strategic leadership lies in the ability to learn (absorptive capacity), the ability to change (adaptive capacity), and managerial wisdom (Boal & Hooijberg, 2000) or the right combination of intelligence, creativity and wisdom (Sternberg, 2003).
  • Innovation is the only insurance against irrelevance. Innovation isn't merely a competitive advantage, it's the competitive advantage
  • Why we miss the future

    1. 1. Why companies Miss or Find the Future: Minds, Mindsets, and Thinking Differently! 1st DUBROVNIK INTERNATIONAL DIEM 2013 SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE OF INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO THE CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC PROBLEMS John Pisapia Florida Atlantic University September 27, 2013
    2. 2. Themes for the Day Target #1: Understanding WHY and how to Overcome WHY Theme 1 Can you recognize the future? Theme 2: What causes us to accept or reject the future? Theme 3: How do overcome my limitations? The Strategic Leader Network 29/27/2013
    3. 3. The Power of the Curve Finding the Future
    4. 4. How would you explain these facts? • 1 • On June 28, 2007, Nokia was the top selling mobile-phone company in the world, people stopped working when they left their computers, Android phones didn't exist, and executives of all echelons were thumbing on their BlackBerrys. • The next day, Apple's first iPhone went on sale. • On April 19, 2012, Nokia reported 1.7 billion dollar loss in the first quarter. • On July 1, 2012 - BlackBerry maker Research in Motion announced it was laying off 5,000 people -- and reported a first- quarter loss of $518 million. Sales were down 40% from the previous year. 9/27/2013 The Strategic Leader Network 4
    5. 5. A T h e o r y o f S t r a t e g i c C h a n g e ! The Power of the Curve 59/27/2013 The Strategic Leader Network
    6. 6. The History of the Cell Phone 9/27/2013 The Strategic Leader Network 6
    7. 7. A T h e o r y o f S t r a t e g i c C h a n g e ! The Power of the Curve 79/27/2013 Disruptive Innovation The Strategic Leader Network Synthesis & Analytic Uncertainty
    8. 8. 9/27/2013 The Strategic Leader Network 8 The Lessons of the Curve
    9. 9. The Lessons of the Curve 9/27/2013 The Strategic Leader Network 9 The Change Lesson The Thinking Lesson Synthetically as well as Analytically; Creatively as well as Critically Implicitly as well as Explicitly.
    10. 10. In the Gap! The Minds we Need 10 Unfortunately, “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” “Think Different” The innovative mind takes the creative idea and successfully implements it “Think Differently” 9/27/2013
    11. 11. The Strategic Leader Network (SLN) Hereis what is Stopping Us from Thinking Differently 119/27/2013
    12. 12. Recognize the Blinders! – Those unconscious Assumptions Cognitive Biases, (Salience, Confirmation Bias, Frame Dominance)and Competing Commitments which control how you think and interpret information and circumstances! Well – it starts with understanding your mindset and how you think…
    13. 13. If mindset is that powerful, I Need to know how I can adjust, if necessary? 9/27/2013 The Strategic Leader Network 13
    14. 14. I n t he Gap we need : A mind that is curious, flexible, and wise AND The Thinking skills that make it possible to recognize • Patterns, • Make sense out of seemingly unrelated information. • Enable us to switch from a strategic mindset - “Why and What” - to a tactical mindset -“How and When” - in a rapid and iterative process when appropriate. 14Pisapia, J. (2009). The Strategic Leader. Charlotte, NC: IAP
    15. 15. T The Skills we need to Think like a Leader In the Gap 9/27/2013 The Strategic Leader Network 15 The How?
    16. 16. The Strategic Thinking Skills 16 Analytical Creative Divergent Synthesis Intuitive Critical Evaluative Integrative Pragmatic Tactical Reasoning Practical Strategic Solutions Future Forward Convergent Deductive Inductive Holistic Linear Non Linear
    17. 17. Agility S y s t e m s T h i n k i n g Pisapia, J. (2009). The Strategic Leader. Charlotte, NC: IAP Helicopter Thinking
    18. 18. …Do you tend to see the trees or the forest? Do you see the Parts? Do you see the System?
    19. 19. People only see what they are prepared to see. Ralph Waldo Emerson and use these perspectives to map out different strategies, and identify trends before others see them Reframing The skill that enables you to gain perspective;
    20. 20. The Strategic Leader Network 20
    21. 21. • In the 1960s Swiss watchmakers controlled 50% of the world market for watches and employed approximately 90,000 People In 1968 a Switzerland research institute made the first electronic quartz wristwatch. But dismissed it. In 1970, the Japanese began making electronic quartz wristwatches By 1978 the Swiss laid off 60,000 of their 90,000 employees. Why? Frame Dominance The Quartz Crisis Wait there is more to the story! In March 1983 the Swiss introduced the Swatch by 1997, the Swiss reclaimed its position as the world’s leading watch exporter
    22. 22. Leadership is always situated within a context ! Frame Dominance! “You need to understand what sandbox you are playing in." Ferdinand de Lessups
    23. 23. “The greatest sin in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” — Peter Drucker
    24. 24. Exercise Your Mental Muscles!
    25. 25. Want More? jpisapia@fau.edu • Pisapia, J. (2009). The strategic Leader: New tactics for a globalizing world. Charlotte: NC. Information Age Publishing • Join one of SLN's Global Learning Communities! 9/27/2013 The Strategic Leader Network 25
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