Test Slideshare

1. February 16, 2009
Marvell Technology Group Ltd.- Buying the Pullback
ticker symbol: mrvl
tilt: bullish ▲
Marvell Technology (MRVL) demonstrated a fair amount of relative strength on Friday, closing up
$0.26 for a 3.28% gain at the $8.19 close, even against strong selling near the close on the S&P
500 and NASDAQ indices. With MRVL's 50-day moving average (sma) within $0.05 of crossing above
the 100-day moving average, traditionally a bullish buy signal, is it time to get long the stock?
The Art: Referring to the daily chart below, we see MRVL as having broken out of a bullish 16-
week inverse head-and-shoulders base with a pattern measurement still some 30% above Friday's
closing price. With the 50sma set to cross above the 100sma over the next few days, let's turn
to Science for a bit of guiding light.

2. The Science: Using all time-series data for MRVL, we tested all occurrences of the 50/100sma
'bullish' cross. Below is a statistical summary showing the percentage change of the 9 previous
occurrences of the event; of the 9 previous occurrences, all 9 were negative showing an average
loss of 7.3% 4-days after the moving-average cross, with a maximum drawdown of -16.5% 5-days
after the moving-average cross. This is one example of where testing the traditional 'wisdom' of
legacy Technical Analysis can often lead to new discovery. The target price on this study shows
MRVL down at $7.58 over the next week or so on an average repeat of history, with a maximum
drawdown into the $6.85 area, interestingly near support currently offered by the 50sma and
100sma.
Date T+0 T+3 T+4 T+5 T+6 T+7
Avg 0 -3.1 -7.3 -4.9 -5.6 -4.5
AvgPos 0 5.8 0 4.6 2.2 3.8
AvgNeg 0 -4.2 -7.3 -7.6 -7.8 -5.5
PctPos 0 11.1 0 22.2 22.2 11.1
PctNeg 0 88.9 100 77.8 77.8 88.9
Maximum 0 5.8 -2.5 5.7 2.7 3.8
Minimum 0 -7.3 -11.9 -16.5 -13.4 -10.2
StdDev 0 3.8 3 7.1 5.9 4.8
ZStat 0 -0.8 -2.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9
Event Performance Over Time
10
5
Percentage Move (except ZSTAT)
0
ZStat
Avg
-5 AvgPos
AvgNeg
Maximum
Minim um
-10
-15
-20
T+0 T+3 T+4 T+5 T+6 T+7
Day-T After Event

3. The Trade: With a bullish-looking daily chart but a negative short-term outlook based on the
aforementioned 50/100sma cross, as well as the awful close on both NASDAQ and S&P500 futures
contracts on Friday, look for a pullback and retest this week near MRVL's inverse head-and-
shoulders neckline in the $7.58 area. Even better yet, with a bearish push lower by the leading
market indices, look for a test of the $6.90 area near the confluence of the 50 and 100-day moving
averages for a swing entry long. Manage stop losses commensurate with your personal trading
style and appetite for portfolio risk. Good trading! -jTrader
Price-point Considerations:
Entry Range - Long $6.80-$6.90 area
Stop - $6.60-$3.73 area, stop-on-close (after intra-day stop email alert)
Target Range - $8.50, $10.00, $10.75
Holding Period - 15-40 days
Copyright 2009, Bridge Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
The text, images and other materials contained or displayed on any Bridge Capital Research Inc. product, service, report, e-mail or web site
are proprietary to Bridge Capital Research Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of any Bridge Capital
Research Inc. web site may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or
otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Bridge Capital Research Inc. All
unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Bridge Capital Research Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of the Bridge
Capital Research Inc. copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Bridge
Capital Research Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the
transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now
known or hereafter devised. Bridge Capital Research Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by
the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
Disclaimer: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and
should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. jTrader and Bridge Capital Research Incorporated
(hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or
underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ
materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company.
Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in Trading With Art and Science
(hereinafter "The Newsletter"). The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates,
agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The Newsletter. The Company and/or its affiliates,
officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have a position in the securities discussed in The Newsletter and may profit in
the event the shares of the companies discussed in The Newsletter rise or fall in value. Past performance never guarantees future results.
The company reserves the right to terminate this agreement or modify these Terms and Conditions for any reason whatsoever without prior
notification.
© Copyright 1999-2009 -- jTrader and Bridge Capital Research Incorporated-- All Rights Reserved