Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Print & roll   find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Print & roll find out where the action is in emea consumables market (webcast) - final of 2nd june

1,553

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,553
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
40
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Print & Roll: Find Out Where the Action Is in the EMEA Consumables Market EMEA = Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa Joanna Pupkowska, Program Manager, Consumables (EMEA) Mario Lombardo, Senior Research Analyst , Western Europe Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
  • 2. Covered today.... 1. Consumables Research Program: Research Background & Methodology Overview 2. Consumables Market Crisis Implications 3. Consumable Developments: Future Assumptions © IDC Source:/Notes: Jun-10 2
  • 3. Consumables Research Program: Research Background & Methodology Overview IDC consumables tracker is run in 17 EMEA markets on a biannual basis. Product coverage: - Inks & toners: cartridges, bulk ink/toner, ink/toner refill kits, CISS - Excluded from the research: developers, fusers, printing heads, printing drums Market segments: - Original - Compatibles - Refillers - Counterfeits Information sources: 1. Shipment data reported by vendors on a consumables SKU level (both local & HQ offices approached for data); 2. Qualitative feedback from local OEM offices on the size of specific market segments (e.g., addressing local Brother vendor office with a question on threat from local Brother compatibles) 3. End-user study results (e.g., asking end users about the share of original consumables in their total purchase volumes) 4. Quantitative sales data reported by IT distributors on an SKU level (both local distributors’ subsidiaries and HQ offices approached) 5. Consumable market modeling based on detailed information on hardcopy peripherals installed base (broken down per OEM brand, speed segment, and technology) 6. Feedback from refillers and from distributors most strongly involved in parallel import/export activities with regard to consumables © IDC Jun-10 3
  • 4. Consumables Market Crisis Implications #1 In 2009, most OEMs reported significant drops in sales of original consumables, with toner sales having suffered most. #2 OEM falls in value terms were smaller than the decrease in volume due to OEM price increases. #3 Average consumption rate per device dropped in both ink and toner segments in response to saving measures adopted among both home users and business users. #4 With printing infrastructure renewals being held back in 2009, vendors face an old installed base.. #5 Compatibles thrived in the worsening economic climate, with all EMEA markets reporting significant increases in sales of compatibles. #6 While compatibles increased across the whole of EMEA, the performances of third-party refilling services varied across the region. #7 Counterfeit supplies present little danger to vendors in Europe, yet they are a threat in the Middle East. © IDC Jun-10 4
  • 5. #1 Overall Consumables Sales Drop  Overall consumables consumption started tumbling at the end of 2008, leading to a 12.2% drop in H1 2009 vs. H1 2008 in EMEA.  The observed drop in transactions resulted from printing reductions, business downsizing, slashed IT investments.  Toner unit sales dropped by 11.7% year-on-year in 2009; OEM sales were down 20.6%.  Ink sales dropped 6.8% year on year in 2009; OEM sales were down 16.7%. • The market for ink consumables peaked in 2007 and declined in 2008 and 2009 year on year. • The slight rebound seen in 2H 2009 is of no great significance. • The market launch of more single-color ink tanks inflates unit volumes.  Figures vary widely by geography and vendor. Overall EMEA Consumables Market EMEA OEM Consumables Market 180 120 Million Units Million units 160 100 140 120 80 100 Ink Ink 60 80 Toner Toner 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 © IDC Jun-10 5
  • 6. #2 OEM Drop in Value Smaller Than Fall in Volume  In terms of value, the overall EMEA consumables market shrank by 9.3% year on year in 2009.  OEM price increases were observed particularly at the end of 2008 and in H1 2009 • Ink price: up 13% on average retail price in € countries in H1 2009 year on year • Toner price: up 18% on average retail price in € countries in H1 2009 year on year • $ trend impacted prices  OEM ink revenue fell by 18.1% year on year in 2009 in EMEA.  OEM toner revenue fell by 8.1% year on year in 2009 in EMEA.  OEM revenue decreased far more sharply in CEE countries – ink and toner revenue down by more than -30%.  The impact on the use of third-party supplies was substantial. © IDC Jun-10 6
  • 7. #3 Average Consumption Rate Drop in Ink & Toner  The ink consumption rate is slowing in most EMEA markets.  Average volumes for ink printing are slowing – -20% year on year in 2009.  Home photo printing is not a strong driver.  The toner consumption rate has slowed consistently throughout EMEA. Ink Consumption Rate Toner Consumption Rate 3,50 7,00 3,00 6,00 2,50 5,00 2,00 4,00 2008 2008 1,50 2009 3,00 2009 2,00 1,00 1,00 0,50 0,00 0,00 WE CEE MEA WE CEE MEA © IDC Jun-10 7
  • 8. #4 Vendors Facing Old Installed Base Due to Delayed Printing Infrastructure Renewals in 2009  IT investments have been slashed across all EMEA verticals.  An old installed base has many implications for OEM vendors:  A slowdown in the transition from SF to MFP  A slowdown in color adoption  Less control over installed base and users = more difficult to ship consumables  More cheap alternative supplies available for older printers  Although the recession has had a huge impact on large organizations, IDC’s SMB Purchasing Behavior in WE: Post Financial Crisis survey revealed little impact on SMBs; 32% of SMBs delayed print hardware purchases. Over the past 12 months, has senior management decided to hold back on purchasing new printing devices? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% No 40% Yes 30% 20% 10% 0% © IDC Jun-10 8
  • 9. #5 Significant Increase in Compatible Sales Across All EMEA Markets Due to Worsening Economic Climate  The EMEA consumables ink & toner market reported an 8.3% decline in volume year on year in 2009 and an 9.3% drop in value. Despite the overall decline across EMEA, some markets saw increases in volume ,with end users encouraged by the increased availability of cheap alternative supplies (e.g., in Ukraine and Turkey).  While shipments of OEMs dropped by 17.9% in volume across EMEA, performance of many compatible brands improved, with ink compatibles growing by 21.1% and compatible toners by 13.0% year on year. The originals vs. compatibles sales-volume gap has been narrowing over the last two years, the trend being boosted by the crisis. In H2 2009, the share of compatibles of the total consumables market stood at 27.6%, as compared with only 19.5% in H1 2008. EMEA Ink Consumables Market Size (Volume) EMEA Toner Consumables Market Size (Volume) 60,00 120,00 Millions Millions 100,00 50,00 80,00 40,00 60,00 30,00 40,00 20,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 H1 2008 H2 2008 H1 2009 H2 2009 0,00 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 Original Inks Compatible Inks Original Toner Compatible Toner © IDC Jun-10 9
  • 10. #6 Varied Performances of Third-party Refilling Services Across the Region Refilling services are on the decline in many markets, despite increasing demand for alternative supplies. Refillers are losing market share to cheap new compatibles produced in the Far East. Although ink and toner refilling services increased in volume terms in H2 2009, the importance of refilling by third parties is expected to decline in the long term. Ink refilling in 2009: Western Europe = 6.9%; Middle East & Africa = 11.4%; Central & Eastern Europe = 24.8%. The bulk of CEE refilling market volume results from Russia and Ukraine, which accounted for 85.3% of CEE ink refilling market volume. Toner refilling in 2009: Central & Eastern Europe = 39.5%; Middle East & Africa = 9.3%; Western Europe = 3.4%. Ukraine & Russia accounted for 90.9% off CEE refilling toner market. Ink refillers Toner refillers 18 500 000 9 600 000 18 000 000 9 400 000 17 500 000 9 200 000 17 000 000 9 000 000 16 500 000 16 000 000 8 800 000 15 500 000 8 600 000 15 000 000 8 400 000 14 500 000 8 200 000 14 000 000 8 000 000 13 500 000 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 © IDC Jun-10 10
  • 11. #7 Counterfeit Supplies of Little Danger in Europe Yet a Threat in ME  Counterfeits in the Middle East markets accounted for 3.7% of market volume in 2009, as compared with 2.2% in CEE and 0.5% in Western Europe.  Middle East: UAE = 5.8%; Saudi Arabia = 5.9%.  The popularity of counterfeits is constantly decreasing as a result of:  OEM vendors’ anti-counterfeit programs  Growing end-user awareness  Availability of cheaper good-quality compatibles, offering users more options when it comes to attractively priced supplies © IDC Jun-10 11
  • 12. Consumable Market Forecast: IDC Assumptions #1 Economy showing first signs of recovery in 2010 & 2011 will boost original supplies sales. #2 OEM vendors are expected to curb increasing popularity of third-party consumables. #3 Demand for color printing in the business sector will continue to rise. #4 Growing adoption of MPS and pay-per-click contracts will enable better control over printed outputs. #5 The share of laser devices in the overall hardcopy peripherals installed base will rise, thus increasing toner sales. #6 Consumables value is expected to show growth in 2010–2014. © IDC Source:/Notes: Jun-10 12
  • 13. #1 Economic Recovery in 2010 & 2011 to Boost Sales of Original Supplies  Original vendors are unlikely to regain historical market shares.  Compatibles will lose some market share after the crisis, but those compatibles vendors that managed to establish strong market presences in the crisis years will perform well. Ink market is expected to develop at CAGR of 1.4% over 2010-2014 while toner market is forecast to grow at 3.4%. Ink market forecast 2010-2014 Toner market forecast 2010-2014 325,00 200,00 320,00 315,00 150,00 Millions 310,00 Millions 305,00 300,00 100,00 295,00 290,00 50,00 285,00 280,00 0,00 © IDC Jun-10 13
  • 14. #2 OEM Vendors Expected to Curb Increasing Popularity Of Third-party Consumables Original vendors will intensify efforts to win back some of the lost market shares, fighting third-party consumables vendors through the following:  Product strategy: a focus on cost-efficient multipack products and single-color tanks  Development of programs for collecting empty cartridges  Legal undertakings: patent-infringement disputes  Quality awareness campaigns © IDC Jun-10 14
  • 15. #3 Rising Demand for Color Printing in Businesses to Continue  OEM color laser adoption in the office slowed through the downturn, causing a fall in color toner in 2009 year on year.  However, the percentage of color of total toner sales grew to 31% in 2009 from 26% in 2008.  Many color applications were not axed through the downturn.  The color laser installed base is expected to expand at a CAGR of approximately 14% across the 2010– 2014 period, with color toner expected to show similar growth.  CEE and MEA countries will experience much greater growth than WE.  Cost-per-copy contracts and MPS will continue to drive color printing. EMEA OEM Toner Sales by Color 100 Million units 90 80 70 60 50 Color 40 Black 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 © IDC Jun-10 15
  • 16. #4 Growing Adoption of MPS and Cost-Per-page Contracts  The downturn has been a mixed blessing for MPS providers, with many cuts but also saving measures (public sector, finance, manufacturing, …).  The need for print rationalization will continue to drive MPS demand.  MPS proliferation in the SMB and large-business segments will inevitably reduce related hardware and supplies growth.  The structure of the consumables distribution channels will be impacted in the long term, moving toward a services business model.  A gap will open up between the distribution channel for large businesses and that for SMBs.  Hardware and supplies businesses will separate. WE SMB: Generally, how do you pay for your hardware  MPS will be effective in combating third-party supplies. devices?  Transactional sales (non-credit or non-lease based) will decline. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <10 10-99 100-249 250-499 employees employees employees employees Transaction Credit deal Lease Managed contract © IDC Jun-10 16
  • 17. #5 Rise in Laser Devices’ HCP Market Share to Trigger Toner Sales  The transition from inkjet to laser is happening in low-speed segments: • Slowdown in inkjet print volumes: -20% year on year in 2009 • IDC figures indicate market maturity • Market launch of more single color ink tanks inflating unit volumes • Ink market in need of shake-up: new business models to be offered  Demand for high-yield toners and multipacks will continue. WE SMB: Perceived Barriers to Business Inkjet Adoption? 70% 60% Purchase price 50% Consumable cost 40% Output Quality Output speed 30% No duplex copying / printing Reliability 20% Noise 10% Other 0% TOTAL <10 emplys 10-99 100-249 250-499 © IDC Jun-10 17
  • 18. #6 Consumables Value Expected to Show Growth in 2010–2014  The consumables market is still very unstable, but recovery is close.  Vendors are managing to keep revenues steady year on year, but only through price increases.  Rationalization of printing infrastructure will increase pressure to lower the cost per page.  The market will show growth in value in 2010–2014.  Toner: Growth in value will be higher than unit growth as a result of price increases, higher-yield cartridges, and more multipacks.  The currency trend will continue to work against end users. (U.S.-based vendors benefit from the U.S. dollar trend, but they adjust prices in case of lower revenues.) © IDC Jun-10 18
  • 19. Thank you for your attention… Please see also other of our reports:  Quarterly Hardcopy Peripherals Tracker  Hardcopy Peripherals Qualitative Reports (Analysis, Forecast, and Vendor Profiles)  Managed Print Services (End-User Survey Study)  Outsourced (In-house) Print & Doc Services (Market Sizing & Vendor Share)  Verticalization of the Hardcopy Peripherals Market  Hardcopy Peripherals Installed Base  Hardcopy Peripherals Page Volume and Value  IT Spending per Vertical © IDC Jun-10 19
  • 20. Any questions? We would be happy to receive feedback from you! Please contact us: Joanna Pupkowska Program Manager Consumables (EMEA) E-mail: jpupkowska@idc.com http://twitter.com/jpupkowska tel.: +48 22 548 40 52 Mario Lombardo Senior Research Analyst Hardcopy Supplies (Western Europe) E-mail: mlombardo@idc.com tel.: +44 (0)208 987 7239 © IDC Jun-10 20

×