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Decision-Making Poker

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                                               Product Management
                                               © 2013 Johan Oskarsson
both complex and extremely
difficult. There are many
                             Decision-
Choosing the right projects is


variables to consider and the
process can be very time
consuming. At the same time
                              Making
                                poker
it might be one of the most
important decisions a
company has to make.
2%                                                  79%
                                                    Answered that alignment
 Answered that the executives                       between IT & Business is
 are knowledgeable in Agile                         better from Agile
 [VersionOne annual survey 2012]                    [VersionOne annual survey 2012]




1 % 64%                            Answered that alignment
                                                                                      65%
                                                                                      Of the global workforce is
Answered that the                                                                     unsupported, detached, or
product managers are               between IT & Business is the                       disengaged.
knowledgeable in Agile             highest or very important                          [Global workforce study 2012, Tower Watson]
                                   [VersionOne annual survey 2012]
[VersionOne annual survey 2012]



Conclusion. This is not acceptable. Only a fraction of executives and business
mangers have learn anything about being adoptable. Alignment between business
and IT / development is of highest interest if your are planning stay in business.
Including your employees, or as I like to call tem, your talents in the strategic
decision-making is not an option. It is a necessity.
Scoring models show many different, very
                                                                          “A fundamental truth is that people who have not
positive features when compared with                                      had a hand in crafting something will invariably
more traditional decision-making                                          resist its implementation.”

strategies. Not only do they produce great
strategic alignment but they also suit the
                                                                                       - Dr. Robert G. Cooper, Portfolio
modern pragmatic management style. So                                                    Management for new products

let’s use them more.
At this time there isn’t one decision model that alone solves every    Financial models don’t work early on as decision-making tools, but
problem. Nor will there ever be. But one thing that many models        they do offer a couple of things we need. They state the
have in common is that they are designed for management only,          assumptions we make and the constraints on Cost of Development.
sometimes exclusively for upper management. This approach              These are both important factors.
does not really fit well with self-organizing teams, empowered
people, or bottom-up, emerging, agile organizations. If you believe    Strategic approaches work well, since they choose strategically
that these attributes are good for your organization, then you         aligned projects, but they are usually organizationally top-down
might want to review your decision-making model.                       driven. This needs to be revised, strategy is far too important to be
                                                                       left to strategy folks. Bring in the teams.
A decision model fit for choosing the direction of your company,
which acknowledges the fact that “we don’t have time to wait for       Bubble diagrams work well to understand the balance of your
management to decide”, should be based on a bottom-up                  portfolio, but fail to illustrate resource limitations and time-to-market
approach. The model should allow the people that are supposed          factors which are also important in choosing projects.
to deliver the solution to take part in choosing whether they should
do one thing over another.                                             Scoring models on the other hand can be adapted to be multi-
                                                                       purpose, adding parts from other models where appropriate.
Not only will you use the collective intelligence of the company,      Scoring models are also super easy and time efficient in
but also you will get people doing what they want to do. A person      comparison to other methods, and can also be easily integrated into
who is told what to do, even with a good understanding of what is      iterative thinking.
required, may not be as energized as someone who gets to
choose. If you want committed, energized people, you might want        There are some mechanisms which can create a reinforcing
to consider involving them in the decision process.                    feedback loop when people work together in deciding a way
                                                                       forward. These include Fair Process, Immersion, the Wisdom of the
                                                                       Crowd and the Law of Diffusion of Innovation. Lets take a closer
                                                                       look before we get to the techniques of Decision-making Poker.
The power of Fair Process                                               “Voluntary cooperation is more than mechanical
                                                                        execution, where people do only what it takes to
When I’m not in the room where people                                   get by.”
are making decisions, I know that they are
making the wrong ones. At least that is                                              - W. Chan Kim & Renée Mauborgne,
what it feels like.                                                                                Blue Ocean Strategy


If you want people to be committed, they have to be involved in
the process of choosing what they are supposed to do. If you want
them to go beyond what is expected of them, the decision-making                                                               Fair Process
process must be fair.
                                                                        Strategy formulation                                  Engagement
                                                                                                                              Explanation
Fair Process encourages people to trust the system(organization).       process
                                                                                                                            Expectation clarity
People care as much about how just a process is, as they care
about its outcome. This means the fairness of the process of
choosing projects is as important as the fairness of the                                                                 Trust and commitment
prioritization resulting from these choices.
                                                                         Attitudes                                          “I feel my opinion
Fair Process encourages the alignment of people according to                                                                      counts”
strategy, by creating buy-in opportunities up front. When people
are involved in the creation of strategy they trust the organization
they belong to.                                                                                                          Voluntary Cooperation

There are three E:s that define Fair Process.                           Behavior                                         “I’ll go beyond the call of
                                                                                                                                    duty”
•  Engagement; By involving individuals in the strategic decisions
   that affect them, people feel respected.
•  Explanation; When everyone involved and affected understands
                                                                                                                         Exceeds expectations
   why decisions are made the way they are, people trust their
   management.                                                          Strategy Execution                                     Self-initiated
•  Expectation; When people know what the key assumptions of
   the projects are, they a more likely to plan their own time better
   to meet dead-lines, budget constrains, etc.                                                                     [Source: Blue Ocean Strategy]
Importance of Immersion in                                               “People tend to be so immersed in the activity of
local interactions                                                       second order abstractions that they do not take a
                                                                         reflexive, reflective, attitude to what they are
                                                                         doing.”
We have become addicted to
simplifications and models, and therefore
we loose sight of what is happening until it
is too late. To be able to make good                                                 - Ralph Stacey, Complexity and
                                                                                                organizational reality

decisions we need to immerse ourselves in
local interaction.
When we sitting in a conference room and discussing plans,             Now we need both the first and second order abstractions to run a
budgets, resource allocations and possible future scenarios, we        company, but we shouldn’t keep them separate or operate them
are pre-occupied with a second order abstraction game. Confused        separately. Second order abstractions have to be immersed.
about what this means? Probably just as confused as you are
about what is happening in your organization, even if you don’t        Immersion is the activity of bringing together, filling in, expanding,
know it.                                                               and elaborating on abstractions. This is what we do when we
                                                                       discussing plans, budgets, etc. We immerse ourselves in the
A first order abstraction is the activity of creating a mental model   second order abstractions. But to understand what is really going on
of your real life experience, this is commonly done by narratives.     we also need immersion in local interaction. We need to find out
For example when you have met with a customer and you are              about the first order abstractions, and sometimes we have to
telling your colleague about the experience.                           experience the real world in order to understand these stories. In
                                                                       short, leave the conference room and talk to the people who have
A second order abstraction is a categorization, measurement, or        real customer experience, and go out and meet with some
modeling of a first order abstraction, with the aim of exercising      customers. It is the only way to fully understand what is going on.
some form of control over it. For example, you summarize what
you experienced with the customer and give it to you boss. She         The result will be faster decision-making with a better gut feeling of
takes it with her to a board meeting where it is discussed. The        what is right.
board then tries to take control of the outcome from a distance, by
say, planning for a new product.
The Wisdom of Crowds                                                      “Diversity and independence are important
When a large group of individuals                                         because the best collective decisions are the
                                                                          product of disagreement and contest, not
estimate, reason, or score different                                      consensus or compromise.”
alternatives, the average result has been
found to be as good as, or even better,
than the estimates of only a few individual                                     - James Surowiecki, The wisdom of
                                                                                crowds
experts.
By letter all members in an affected social system be part of           To best work with large groups of individuals and utilize the Wisdom
scoring projects for execution and priority, an even better result      of the Crowd, three practices are recommended by James
can occur than if the task was left to Product Managers only.           Surowiecki, author of the book “The Wisdom of crowds”:
Known advantages of the Wisdom of the Crowd are:
                                                                        1. Keep you ties loose. Meaning, have many weak relations to
•  The judgment of the market situation can be much faster, more        people rather than a few strong ones.
   accurate and less subject to political forces, than that of expert   2. Keep your self exposed to as many diverse sources as possible.
   committees.                                                          3. Make groups that range across hierarchies.
•  Common understanding within a social system shows
   surprisingly accurate judgments when it comes to coordination.
•  Groups of people can create networks of trust that do away with
   the necessity of a central authority controlling their behavior or
   directly enforcing compliance.
Diffusion of Innovation                                                              “Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is
                                                                                     communicated through certain channels, over
                                                                                     time, among the members of a social system.”
Before a strategy can be successful it must be
widely adopted in order to self-sustain.
Different people tend to adopt innovations, or
in this case new strategies, at different rates.
                                                                                         - Everett Rogers, Diffusion of
When executing a strategy we want people to                                                                Innovations

adopt it as fast as possible, correspondingly we
want the diffusion time of the strategy to as
short as possible.
Innovation is an idea, practice or object, that is perceived as new by
an individual or population. For example a newly prioritized backlog,
or a new project execution order, can be viewed as an innovation
within an organization.                                                   The process of getting a social system to adopt an innovation, is a
There are three types of innovation-decisions that can occur with the     decision-making process.
adoption of a new idea.                                                    “It occurs through a series of communication channels, over a
                                                                          period of time, among the members of the same social
•  Optional innovation-decision; Where the decision is made by an         system” [Wikipedia].
   individual independent from others within the social system
•  Collective innovation-decision; Where the decision is made             By involving the members of a social system in the development of
   collectively by all individuals in the social system                   innovation, the time from when a decision is made until everyone
•  Authoritarian innovation-decision; Where the decision is made for      accepts it, is shortened. Even the “laggards” may come to see that
   the entire social system by individuals in positions of influence or   there is no option but to move forward with everyone else.
   power
                                                                          By letting all members be part of decision-making, decisions will be
Guess which type will shorten the execution time of a new strategy?       both collective and authority based. This can also speed things up.
Decision-Making Poker                                                1.  Story telling. The Product Manager, Product Owners, CTO, CEO
                                                                         and everyone involved in strategic work, present the prepared
Decision-Making Poker consists of simple,                                material in a story telling fashion. 1 hour is the maximum time
proven, absorbing processes which make it                                recommended for this, after that people start falling asleep. Make
                                                                         sure everyone has coffee.
a powerful and fun exercise. It is designed
to handle complexity, strategic alignment                            2.  Divide all those invited, which should be practically everyone
                                                                         employed, even the cleaning lady (she might know more than you
and to work as catalyst for energizing                                   think), into groups of 5 +/-2.
employees.
                                                                     3.  Choose a group member to collect the scoring data.
Decision-Making Poker is a tool for portfolio management. It
captures the collective intelligence of multiple perspectives. The   4.  Go through the rules and the Scoring model before you start so
workshop should be performed frequently, each quarter or                 that everyone understands the process.
more. It does not require any significant market research, data
collection or time consuming meetings spent trying to reach a        5.  Someone from each group reads a One-Page Project Story to their
consensus among those responsible. But it does require                   group.
preparation.
                                                                     6.  Everyone in the group selects a score for the first factor and shows
Before the workshop the following material should be gathered:           it to the group simultaneously. It is important to stress that people
•  Company market trend                                                  need to score what they think before they see anyone else’s score.
•  Business Model
•  Competitor Stories                                                7.  The lowest and highest score each explain the reason why they
•  Customer Stories                                                      scored the way they did. This is one of the important parts. It is
•  Project One-Page Stories                                              called Sense-Making.
•  Business Cases
•  Project assumptions




                                                                                                                       Continue…
8.  Agree on a shared score for the factor with consensus within the
    group. Watch out for alpha personalities exerting to much influence
    here as this can destroy collective wisdom. Repeat for the next
    factor

9.  When all factors have been scored, sum up the project score and
    then continue with the next project.

10. When all projects are scored, line them up in order of how they
    scored and discuss the reasons for each projects priority within the
    group.

11. Rescore if you think it is necessary, now that you can see the
    relative prioritization.

12. The workshop is over.

13. The Product Managers and Product Owner collects the score
    cards and adds up all of the data then visually presents the scored
    prioritized list of projects.

The scored prioritized list may not be the actual order of execution but
is defiantly a good input. Other circumstances might exist why a
certain order of execution is needed BUT it is very important to
communicate why the prioritized list is different from the execution list.
Project Scoring Card
                                                                         Rating scale                                               
Key Factors                             1                  3                    5                   7                  10                Rating
Strategy alignment                 Very low          Low                   Moderate        Strong        Very strong  
Team energy factor             “If you pull out “Do I have to”            “I guess it  “I’d love to be “There is only
                                    a gun”                               makes sense” on this project” one project for
                                                                                                       me. This One!”  
Bang for the Buck                     < 0.5            0.5 -1.0             1.0 -1.5            1.5 - 2.0             > 2.0
Index                                                                                                                               
Assumption rate                    Very low                      Moderate                        High         Very high
                                verification of Low verification verification of               verification of verification of
                                 assumptions of assumptions assumptions                      assumptions     assumptions
                                 (very risky)      (risky)     (medium risk)                  (low risk)   (very low risk)  
Estimated customer                 Very low               Low              Moderate               High             Very high
value                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                If we don’t do
Time-to-makret                     Not at all         Not really            Critical         Very critical      it now we can
critical                                                                                                            skip it     
Sum                                                                                                                                                     0
    Suggested factors for a Project Scoring Card. Strategic              The Assumption rate factor reflects the scale of unverified assumptions
    alignment to make sure the project is in accordance with the         that may pose a risk to the project if not correct. Estimated Customer
    strategic business model. Team energy factor is important to         Value is a measure of what value everyone thinks the project will bring
    capture because a high team energy project is likely to have         to the customer. The last Time-to-market-critical factor, is a reflection of
    highly motivated individuals working on it, maximizing its chances   how time critical the project is seen to be.
    of success. Bang for the Buck Index is an index which captures
    both resources, financial impact and time-to-market (very Agile).    Note! These are only suggested factors. You should create scoring cards
    The Bang for the Buck Index numbers should reflect your              which are tailor made for your circumstance.
    projects financial data.
Example
          1.
               “The CEO, the Chief Product Owner and the Product
               Owners tell everyone about the market situation, and how
               the company business model is adapting to it “

                     “What are the competitors doing and what’s
                     new from our customers? “

               “What projects are in the backlog which align with our
               business model and tactics, that answer new customer
               needs or new moves by our competition”
Example
               “Each project is scored for each factor.”

          2.     “The CEO, Chief Product Owner and Product
                 Owners are walking around and answering
                 questions, explaining things that are unclear.”




                                                           “Make sure that there is plenty
                                                           of coffee and other social event
                                                           energizers to increase the fun
                                                           factor.”
Example
          3.   “When all projects are scored the score
               cards are collected”
Example
                4.
          “The Product Management team sorts and aggregates
          the scores and updates the priority order of the projects.”




                                                          “The new order is communicated to all
                                                          who participated in the work shop”
Ok, what’s next?
Now you might have tried Decision-Making                                   Using Decision-Making Poker frequently will facilitate better market
Poker, hopefully with great results. It’s now                              research and allow you to follow trends much faster. The more
                                                                           frequently you perform it the better you can adapt it to be useful.
time to integrate it into the iterative strategy                           Being more up to date can mean that you only have to revise parts of
process.                                                                   your business plan at any one iteration, giving you better structure
                                                                           and consistency. In short it helps with all of the things that makes
                                                                           Agile work so well.
Choosing the direction of your company, and what projects to
implement to achieve that direction, is not a one time or yearly           So how frequent is frequent? That depends on your business. But as
activity. It needs to be integrated with the development process. If you   a rule of thumb you can quarter your traditional cycles. In the same
only understand why you do something once a year, the energy can           way as with Scrum, or Kanban or whatever Agile process you use,
run out well before the year ends. And sometimes the way you               explore and re-design until it works.
understand it is no longer relevant by that time. So It’s important to
continuously assess and update. To get quick wins, we need to see          Happy decision-making!
that the next release adds to the current strategy.

Strategy also needs to be adapted more frequently now days, due to
more dynamic markets and competition.

The process of making a marketing/business plan is usually painful,
time consuming and, in my experience, different from one time to the
next due to different people performing it. There is little consistency.




                                                                                          Agile Product Management Framework (A-PMF ©)
Decision-Making Poker Cards




  1 3 5 7 10
Very low, count
  me out, not
   right now
                       Low, not
                  looking forward
                   to, could wait
                                    Moderate, why
                                    not, we should
                                      start soon
                                                       High, count me
                                                      in, time critical
                                                                          Very high, who do I
                                                                           have to kill to be
                                                                           on this one, right
                                                                                  now




                                      ?
                                    I have no idea,
                                    get the Product
                                    Owner over here
                                       to explain
Project Scoring Card

                                                             Rating scale                                        
Key Factors                      1               3                 5                 7                10             Rating
Strategy alignment           Very low           Low            Moderate           Strong         Very strong     

Team energy factor        “If you pull out “Do I have to” “I guess I makes “I’d love to be “There is only
                               a gun”                          sense”      on this project” one project for
                                                                                            me. This One!”  

Bang for the Buck              < 0.5          0.5 - 1.0         1 - 1.5          1.5 – 2.0           >2.0
Index                                                                                                            

Assumption rate              Very low                          Moderate                           Very high
                          verification of   Low verification   verification of   High verification verification of
                           assumptions     of assumptions     assumptions      of assumptions    assumptions
                           (very risky)        (risky)       (medium risk)        (low risk)   (very low risk)  

Estimated customer           Very low           Low            Moderate            High           Very high
value                                                                                                            

                                                                                               If we don’t do it
                            Not at all       Not really         Critical       Very critical   now we can skip
Time-to-makret critical                                                                               it          
Sum                                                                                                                           0
Johan Oskarsson

@johanoskarsson
                              Inspirational sources
www.captaintrouble.com
                              Portfolio Management for new Products – Robert Cooper
                              Management 3.0 – Jurgen Appelo
                              The Product Manager’s desk reference – Steven Haines
                              Business Model Generation – Alexander Osterwalder
                              Innovation Killers – Clayton Christensen
                              Complexity and organizational reality – Ralph Stacey
                              Blue Ocean Strategy – Kim Mauborgne,


                         Thanks to David Jackson for editing and theoretical dialogues.

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Decision making poker v1.01

  • 1. Decision-Making Poker 35 7 Moderate, why h , no t Hig , co Low not, we should time lo ing ok start soon to, in, unt me critical ard for w d wait l cou Product Management © 2013 Johan Oskarsson
  • 2. both complex and extremely difficult. There are many Decision- Choosing the right projects is variables to consider and the process can be very time consuming. At the same time Making poker it might be one of the most important decisions a company has to make.
  • 3. 2% 79% Answered that alignment Answered that the executives between IT & Business is are knowledgeable in Agile better from Agile [VersionOne annual survey 2012] [VersionOne annual survey 2012] 1 % 64% Answered that alignment 65% Of the global workforce is Answered that the unsupported, detached, or product managers are between IT & Business is the disengaged. knowledgeable in Agile highest or very important [Global workforce study 2012, Tower Watson] [VersionOne annual survey 2012] [VersionOne annual survey 2012] Conclusion. This is not acceptable. Only a fraction of executives and business mangers have learn anything about being adoptable. Alignment between business and IT / development is of highest interest if your are planning stay in business. Including your employees, or as I like to call tem, your talents in the strategic decision-making is not an option. It is a necessity.
  • 4. Scoring models show many different, very “A fundamental truth is that people who have not positive features when compared with had a hand in crafting something will invariably more traditional decision-making resist its implementation.” strategies. Not only do they produce great strategic alignment but they also suit the - Dr. Robert G. Cooper, Portfolio modern pragmatic management style. So Management for new products let’s use them more. At this time there isn’t one decision model that alone solves every Financial models don’t work early on as decision-making tools, but problem. Nor will there ever be. But one thing that many models they do offer a couple of things we need. They state the have in common is that they are designed for management only, assumptions we make and the constraints on Cost of Development. sometimes exclusively for upper management. This approach These are both important factors. does not really fit well with self-organizing teams, empowered people, or bottom-up, emerging, agile organizations. If you believe Strategic approaches work well, since they choose strategically that these attributes are good for your organization, then you aligned projects, but they are usually organizationally top-down might want to review your decision-making model. driven. This needs to be revised, strategy is far too important to be left to strategy folks. Bring in the teams. A decision model fit for choosing the direction of your company, which acknowledges the fact that “we don’t have time to wait for Bubble diagrams work well to understand the balance of your management to decide”, should be based on a bottom-up portfolio, but fail to illustrate resource limitations and time-to-market approach. The model should allow the people that are supposed factors which are also important in choosing projects. to deliver the solution to take part in choosing whether they should do one thing over another. Scoring models on the other hand can be adapted to be multi- purpose, adding parts from other models where appropriate. Not only will you use the collective intelligence of the company, Scoring models are also super easy and time efficient in but also you will get people doing what they want to do. A person comparison to other methods, and can also be easily integrated into who is told what to do, even with a good understanding of what is iterative thinking. required, may not be as energized as someone who gets to choose. If you want committed, energized people, you might want There are some mechanisms which can create a reinforcing to consider involving them in the decision process. feedback loop when people work together in deciding a way forward. These include Fair Process, Immersion, the Wisdom of the Crowd and the Law of Diffusion of Innovation. Lets take a closer look before we get to the techniques of Decision-making Poker.
  • 5. The power of Fair Process “Voluntary cooperation is more than mechanical execution, where people do only what it takes to When I’m not in the room where people get by.” are making decisions, I know that they are making the wrong ones. At least that is - W. Chan Kim & Renée Mauborgne, what it feels like. Blue Ocean Strategy If you want people to be committed, they have to be involved in the process of choosing what they are supposed to do. If you want them to go beyond what is expected of them, the decision-making Fair Process process must be fair. Strategy formulation Engagement Explanation Fair Process encourages people to trust the system(organization). process Expectation clarity People care as much about how just a process is, as they care about its outcome. This means the fairness of the process of choosing projects is as important as the fairness of the Trust and commitment prioritization resulting from these choices. Attitudes “I feel my opinion Fair Process encourages the alignment of people according to counts” strategy, by creating buy-in opportunities up front. When people are involved in the creation of strategy they trust the organization they belong to. Voluntary Cooperation There are three E:s that define Fair Process. Behavior “I’ll go beyond the call of duty” •  Engagement; By involving individuals in the strategic decisions that affect them, people feel respected. •  Explanation; When everyone involved and affected understands Exceeds expectations why decisions are made the way they are, people trust their management. Strategy Execution Self-initiated •  Expectation; When people know what the key assumptions of the projects are, they a more likely to plan their own time better to meet dead-lines, budget constrains, etc. [Source: Blue Ocean Strategy]
  • 6. Importance of Immersion in “People tend to be so immersed in the activity of local interactions second order abstractions that they do not take a reflexive, reflective, attitude to what they are doing.” We have become addicted to simplifications and models, and therefore we loose sight of what is happening until it is too late. To be able to make good - Ralph Stacey, Complexity and organizational reality decisions we need to immerse ourselves in local interaction. When we sitting in a conference room and discussing plans, Now we need both the first and second order abstractions to run a budgets, resource allocations and possible future scenarios, we company, but we shouldn’t keep them separate or operate them are pre-occupied with a second order abstraction game. Confused separately. Second order abstractions have to be immersed. about what this means? Probably just as confused as you are about what is happening in your organization, even if you don’t Immersion is the activity of bringing together, filling in, expanding, know it. and elaborating on abstractions. This is what we do when we discussing plans, budgets, etc. We immerse ourselves in the A first order abstraction is the activity of creating a mental model second order abstractions. But to understand what is really going on of your real life experience, this is commonly done by narratives. we also need immersion in local interaction. We need to find out For example when you have met with a customer and you are about the first order abstractions, and sometimes we have to telling your colleague about the experience. experience the real world in order to understand these stories. In short, leave the conference room and talk to the people who have A second order abstraction is a categorization, measurement, or real customer experience, and go out and meet with some modeling of a first order abstraction, with the aim of exercising customers. It is the only way to fully understand what is going on. some form of control over it. For example, you summarize what you experienced with the customer and give it to you boss. She The result will be faster decision-making with a better gut feeling of takes it with her to a board meeting where it is discussed. The what is right. board then tries to take control of the outcome from a distance, by say, planning for a new product.
  • 7. The Wisdom of Crowds “Diversity and independence are important When a large group of individuals because the best collective decisions are the product of disagreement and contest, not estimate, reason, or score different consensus or compromise.” alternatives, the average result has been found to be as good as, or even better, than the estimates of only a few individual - James Surowiecki, The wisdom of crowds experts. By letter all members in an affected social system be part of To best work with large groups of individuals and utilize the Wisdom scoring projects for execution and priority, an even better result of the Crowd, three practices are recommended by James can occur than if the task was left to Product Managers only. Surowiecki, author of the book “The Wisdom of crowds”: Known advantages of the Wisdom of the Crowd are: 1. Keep you ties loose. Meaning, have many weak relations to •  The judgment of the market situation can be much faster, more people rather than a few strong ones. accurate and less subject to political forces, than that of expert 2. Keep your self exposed to as many diverse sources as possible. committees. 3. Make groups that range across hierarchies. •  Common understanding within a social system shows surprisingly accurate judgments when it comes to coordination. •  Groups of people can create networks of trust that do away with the necessity of a central authority controlling their behavior or directly enforcing compliance.
  • 8. Diffusion of Innovation “Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels, over time, among the members of a social system.” Before a strategy can be successful it must be widely adopted in order to self-sustain. Different people tend to adopt innovations, or in this case new strategies, at different rates. - Everett Rogers, Diffusion of When executing a strategy we want people to Innovations adopt it as fast as possible, correspondingly we want the diffusion time of the strategy to as short as possible. Innovation is an idea, practice or object, that is perceived as new by an individual or population. For example a newly prioritized backlog, or a new project execution order, can be viewed as an innovation within an organization. The process of getting a social system to adopt an innovation, is a There are three types of innovation-decisions that can occur with the decision-making process. adoption of a new idea. “It occurs through a series of communication channels, over a period of time, among the members of the same social •  Optional innovation-decision; Where the decision is made by an system” [Wikipedia]. individual independent from others within the social system •  Collective innovation-decision; Where the decision is made By involving the members of a social system in the development of collectively by all individuals in the social system innovation, the time from when a decision is made until everyone •  Authoritarian innovation-decision; Where the decision is made for accepts it, is shortened. Even the “laggards” may come to see that the entire social system by individuals in positions of influence or there is no option but to move forward with everyone else. power By letting all members be part of decision-making, decisions will be Guess which type will shorten the execution time of a new strategy? both collective and authority based. This can also speed things up.
  • 9. Decision-Making Poker 1.  Story telling. The Product Manager, Product Owners, CTO, CEO and everyone involved in strategic work, present the prepared Decision-Making Poker consists of simple, material in a story telling fashion. 1 hour is the maximum time proven, absorbing processes which make it recommended for this, after that people start falling asleep. Make sure everyone has coffee. a powerful and fun exercise. It is designed to handle complexity, strategic alignment 2.  Divide all those invited, which should be practically everyone employed, even the cleaning lady (she might know more than you and to work as catalyst for energizing think), into groups of 5 +/-2. employees. 3.  Choose a group member to collect the scoring data. Decision-Making Poker is a tool for portfolio management. It captures the collective intelligence of multiple perspectives. The 4.  Go through the rules and the Scoring model before you start so workshop should be performed frequently, each quarter or that everyone understands the process. more. It does not require any significant market research, data collection or time consuming meetings spent trying to reach a 5.  Someone from each group reads a One-Page Project Story to their consensus among those responsible. But it does require group. preparation. 6.  Everyone in the group selects a score for the first factor and shows Before the workshop the following material should be gathered: it to the group simultaneously. It is important to stress that people •  Company market trend need to score what they think before they see anyone else’s score. •  Business Model •  Competitor Stories 7.  The lowest and highest score each explain the reason why they •  Customer Stories scored the way they did. This is one of the important parts. It is •  Project One-Page Stories called Sense-Making. •  Business Cases •  Project assumptions Continue…
  • 10. 8.  Agree on a shared score for the factor with consensus within the group. Watch out for alpha personalities exerting to much influence here as this can destroy collective wisdom. Repeat for the next factor 9.  When all factors have been scored, sum up the project score and then continue with the next project. 10. When all projects are scored, line them up in order of how they scored and discuss the reasons for each projects priority within the group. 11. Rescore if you think it is necessary, now that you can see the relative prioritization. 12. The workshop is over. 13. The Product Managers and Product Owner collects the score cards and adds up all of the data then visually presents the scored prioritized list of projects. The scored prioritized list may not be the actual order of execution but is defiantly a good input. Other circumstances might exist why a certain order of execution is needed BUT it is very important to communicate why the prioritized list is different from the execution list.
  • 11. Project Scoring Card   Rating scale   Key Factors 1 3 5 7 10 Rating Strategy alignment Very low Low Moderate Strong Very strong   Team energy factor “If you pull out “Do I have to” “I guess it “I’d love to be “There is only a gun” makes sense” on this project” one project for me. This One!”   Bang for the Buck < 0.5 0.5 -1.0 1.0 -1.5 1.5 - 2.0 > 2.0 Index   Assumption rate Very low Moderate High Very high verification of Low verification verification of verification of verification of assumptions of assumptions assumptions assumptions assumptions (very risky) (risky) (medium risk) (low risk) (very low risk)   Estimated customer Very low Low Moderate High Very high value   If we don’t do Time-to-makret Not at all Not really Critical Very critical it now we can critical skip it   Sum       0 Suggested factors for a Project Scoring Card. Strategic The Assumption rate factor reflects the scale of unverified assumptions alignment to make sure the project is in accordance with the that may pose a risk to the project if not correct. Estimated Customer strategic business model. Team energy factor is important to Value is a measure of what value everyone thinks the project will bring capture because a high team energy project is likely to have to the customer. The last Time-to-market-critical factor, is a reflection of highly motivated individuals working on it, maximizing its chances how time critical the project is seen to be. of success. Bang for the Buck Index is an index which captures both resources, financial impact and time-to-market (very Agile). Note! These are only suggested factors. You should create scoring cards The Bang for the Buck Index numbers should reflect your which are tailor made for your circumstance. projects financial data.
  • 12. Example 1. “The CEO, the Chief Product Owner and the Product Owners tell everyone about the market situation, and how the company business model is adapting to it “ “What are the competitors doing and what’s new from our customers? “ “What projects are in the backlog which align with our business model and tactics, that answer new customer needs or new moves by our competition”
  • 13. Example “Each project is scored for each factor.” 2. “The CEO, Chief Product Owner and Product Owners are walking around and answering questions, explaining things that are unclear.” “Make sure that there is plenty of coffee and other social event energizers to increase the fun factor.”
  • 14. Example 3. “When all projects are scored the score cards are collected”
  • 15. Example 4. “The Product Management team sorts and aggregates the scores and updates the priority order of the projects.” “The new order is communicated to all who participated in the work shop”
  • 16. Ok, what’s next? Now you might have tried Decision-Making Using Decision-Making Poker frequently will facilitate better market Poker, hopefully with great results. It’s now research and allow you to follow trends much faster. The more frequently you perform it the better you can adapt it to be useful. time to integrate it into the iterative strategy Being more up to date can mean that you only have to revise parts of process. your business plan at any one iteration, giving you better structure and consistency. In short it helps with all of the things that makes Agile work so well. Choosing the direction of your company, and what projects to implement to achieve that direction, is not a one time or yearly So how frequent is frequent? That depends on your business. But as activity. It needs to be integrated with the development process. If you a rule of thumb you can quarter your traditional cycles. In the same only understand why you do something once a year, the energy can way as with Scrum, or Kanban or whatever Agile process you use, run out well before the year ends. And sometimes the way you explore and re-design until it works. understand it is no longer relevant by that time. So It’s important to continuously assess and update. To get quick wins, we need to see Happy decision-making! that the next release adds to the current strategy. Strategy also needs to be adapted more frequently now days, due to more dynamic markets and competition. The process of making a marketing/business plan is usually painful, time consuming and, in my experience, different from one time to the next due to different people performing it. There is little consistency. Agile Product Management Framework (A-PMF ©)
  • 17. Decision-Making Poker Cards 1 3 5 7 10 Very low, count me out, not right now Low, not looking forward to, could wait Moderate, why not, we should start soon High, count me in, time critical Very high, who do I have to kill to be on this one, right now ? I have no idea, get the Product Owner over here to explain
  • 18. Project Scoring Card   Rating scale   Key Factors 1 3 5 7 10 Rating Strategy alignment Very low Low Moderate Strong Very strong   Team energy factor “If you pull out “Do I have to” “I guess I makes “I’d love to be “There is only a gun” sense” on this project” one project for me. This One!”   Bang for the Buck < 0.5 0.5 - 1.0 1 - 1.5 1.5 – 2.0 >2.0 Index   Assumption rate Very low Moderate Very high verification of Low verification verification of High verification verification of assumptions of assumptions assumptions of assumptions assumptions (very risky) (risky) (medium risk) (low risk) (very low risk)   Estimated customer Very low Low Moderate High Very high value   If we don’t do it Not at all Not really Critical Very critical now we can skip Time-to-makret critical it   Sum       0
  • 19. Johan Oskarsson @johanoskarsson Inspirational sources www.captaintrouble.com Portfolio Management for new Products – Robert Cooper Management 3.0 – Jurgen Appelo The Product Manager’s desk reference – Steven Haines Business Model Generation – Alexander Osterwalder Innovation Killers – Clayton Christensen Complexity and organizational reality – Ralph Stacey Blue Ocean Strategy – Kim Mauborgne, Thanks to David Jackson for editing and theoretical dialogues.