The Power of the Cloud, and Global Risk Modelling in the Open
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The Power of the Cloud, and Global Risk Modelling in the Open

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  • How many of you have been in an earthquake?How many of you died?The difference between an earthquake killing 40% of the population, and an earthquake killing 0.01% of the population, is in our understanding of risk.
  • We’re all clouds
  • Who am I - I'm a one-trick pony (but it's a hell of a trick) - Open Source, distributed systems at scale - Data analytics (Netscape, AOL) - NASA and OpenStack
  • Where we’re headed:What is GEMHow is this Cloud?What did we learn?
  • What is GEM - Global Earthquake Modelling - A social problem, a technical problem, and a user experience problem
  • Risk modeling is the same in all fields – financial risk, political risk, disaster risk.But when it really matters, it sharpens the mind.
  • We wanted to move from the old model (static products)…
  • to the new model (dynamic systems).
  • In order to answer the “Why Cloud” – we have to look at what makes GEM hard…
  • Monte Carlo – 10,000 realizations for a decent result
  • All of the challenges of a web application at scale, plus - repeatability
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_science_data
  • http://knowledge-stage.wharton.upenn.edu/papers/1252.pdfOpen Source Software Development and Distributed Innovation
  • Everyone has a big enough computerEveryone can reproduce the resultsEveryone can use the same methods with additional datasets
  • http://www.openscience.org/blog/?p=269 July 28, 2009 by Dan Gezelter, and until the comments start coming in to your blog post announcing the paper. If our general expectations of what it means to complete a project are raised to this level, the scientific community will start doing these activities as a matter of course."
  • There was a point when the internet was no longer a tool for doing things BETTER – it was a tool for doing entirely NEW THINGS.CLOUD is reaching that point. And I believe that 50 years from now, we’ll be able to look back and say that OpenQuake was one of those things.

The Power of the Cloud, and Global Risk Modelling in the Open The Power of the Cloud, and Global Risk Modelling in the Open Presentation Transcript

  • There is a lot that happens aroundthe world we cannot control. Wecannot stop earthquakes, we cannotprevent droughts, and we cannotprevent all conflict, but when weknow where the hungry, the homelessand the sick exist, then we canhelp. - Jan Schakowsky
  • THE POWER OF THE CLOUD, ANDGLOBAL RISK MODELING IN THE OPEN
  • Me: Joshua McKentyTwitter: @jmckentyEmail: joshua@pistoncloud.comIT Architect, Global Earthquake ModelChief Architect, NASA NebulaFounding Member, OpenStackOpenStack Project Policy BoardCEO, Piston Cloud Computing
  • WHAT IS THEGLOBAL EARTHQUAKEMODEL?
  • “The GEM Foundation has set itself out toengage a global community in the design,development and deployment of state-of-the-art models and tools for earthquake riskassessment worldwide.”
  • An introduction to Risk Modeling
  • Reports…
  • …and Tools
  • CLOUD FOR RISK MODELING?
  • Challenges» Complex calculations on large, federated data sets» Data is sensitive, sometimes secret, often proprietary» Process and calculations used need to be certified and verifiable» Results need to be public
  • A scientifically valid “mash-up”
  • Solution: Cloud» Built to scale elastically to the extents of the infrastructure (1-10,000 nodes)» Run as a service (OpenGEM)» Open source» … and repeatable.
  • All i have is a hammer…
  • LESSONS LEARNED
  • DataPeers Experiments
  • "International programs forglobal change research andenvironmental monitoringcrucially depend on the principleof full and open data exchange"- On the Full and Open Exchange of Scientific Data (A publicationof the Committee on Geophysical and Environmental Data -National Research Council) 1995
  • …the Internet was conceived as acommunication mechanism for thedissemination of ideas and as ameans to support distributedcollaboration.- Open Source Software Development andDistributed Innovation, Bruce Kogut and AncaMetiu, April 2001
  • "...without access to the source forthe programs we use... (i.e. whensimulation codes or parameter filesare proprietary or are hidden by theirowners), numericalexperimentation isn’t evenscience. Science has to beverifiable in practice as well asverifiable in principle’”
  • CLOUD CHANGES SCIENCE
  • “...Michael Faraday’s advice to his juniorcolleague to: “Work. Finish. Publish.” needs tobe revised. It shouldn’t be enough to publish apaper anymore. If we want open science toflourish, we should raise our expectationsto: “Work. Finish. Publish. Release.” That is,your research shouldn’t be considered completeuntil the data and meta-data is put up on theweb for other people to use, until the code isdocumented and released… - Dan Gezelter
  • Science made real, again Open Data Open Open Science Stack
  • CLOUD CHANGESEVERYTHING