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Europe’s Food &
Agriculture in
2050
A critical analysis of
prospective reports
Course on Advanced Studies
“Europe 2050. Trends and
Challenges”
Institute for European Global Studies,
University of Basel (05-04-2016)
JOSE LUIS VIVERO POL
PhD Research Fellow in Food Governance
Centre for Philosophy of Law/Earth & Life Institute
1
THIS IS EUROPE
2
Food Insecurity (unability to eat meat
every second day): 10.9%.
13.5 M people
2.7% increase since austerity
measures
30 M Malnutrition
(Transmango Project)
3
EUROPA
leaving many behind
because food is not a right
4
• 123 M poor EU people
(1/4) (Oxfam, 2015)
• 50 M severe material
deprivation: food,
water…(EUROSTAT, 2015)
• 2009-15, + 7.5 M
poor
• 30-40% children (6
EU members) below
poverty line (UNICEF, 2014)
• Increasing children
at school with no
breakfast (UK,
Netherlands, Spain)
5
No RtF in EU: How is that possible?
• NOT in European Social Charter
• NOT in any EU constitution
• NOT in MDGs & SDGs narrative
• Proposal in Belgium: National Food Policy
Council including whole food chain (Eggen, 2014)
• Proposal in Spain: RtF in Constitution
• European Citizen´s Initiative + EP: water as
human right + commons
• Universal Food Coverage (non-existing)
6
Countries supporting RtF
Few countries
investing in the
Right to Food
7
8
RECAP: Europe´s Food Security in 1 min
• 1945-1980: Increase production at any cost
• 1980-2008: Production reached. So…quality,
lower prices, commodification (biofuels,
financialisation, long chains, global trade)
• 2008-2016: Two food crises. Climate change
will threat Food. Limited resources (water, soil,
P, N). Obesity
• 2016-2050: Securing Food Supply. More trade.
Common Food Policy
9
Global food system: crisis & transition
• Rising Obesity / Steady Hunger (2.3 billion): We eat badly
• Inefficient (wasting one third, yields stagnated, few crops)
• The way we produce/eat food is main driver of climate
change & moving beyond planetary boundaries
• Population as a threat but world produces enough food for all
• Diet transition towards more meat (less efficient, less healthy)
Food kills people
OBESITY: 3.4 million deaths annually, 1120 million people by
2030 (Ng et al. 2014; Kelly et al. 2008)
HUNGER: largest contributor to maternal-child mortality
worldwide, 3.1 million children (Black et al. 2013).
10
Commodification (C) of food as major driver
• (C) dominant force since XIX (Polanyi, 1944; Sandel, 2013; Sraffa, 1960)
• (C): development of traits that fit with mechanized processes
• Human-induced social construct that denies non-economic
attributes of food in favour of its tradable features (durability,
external beauty, standardisation, cheap calories, food miles)
• (C) crowds out non-market values and the idea of food as
something worth caring about (Sandel, 2012).
• (C) root cause of crisis (Magdoff, 2010; Zerbe, 2009; Kloppenburg, 2004).
• Food speculation as ultimate alienation of food from its
primary value-in-use (feeding people)
• Metabolic rift between consumers and distant producers
• Food agency restricted “sovereign act of consuming”
11
Business
as usual
TRANSMANGO: 4 scenarios to analyse
Other
Transitions
12
Causal links
& Incidence Share
Based on heuristics
and ideologies
Where do we want to
go? Agency in Transition 13
Global Food Security 2030
Joint Research Centre
Foresight research
with ideological stance
and biased worldview
14
Scientific facts or Ideological Positions?
Imagining beyond the permitted ideas
15
Food security is securing the supply of food
that answers the emerging demand
1.- Demand-driven Food Systems
• Consumer Sovereignty (individual consumer is
the king, societal citizen is secondary)
• Private satisfaction VS common good
• Responsible consumer behaviour
• Influencing power of commercials, media,
subsidized agriculture, cheap prices (absent)
• Empowerment of consumer: Where is the
state?
17
Page 21
• Are we safe by a low cost food system?
Not healthy, not diverse, not sustainable
• Food deserts in US (what´s consumer´s choice?)
• Unhealthy ultra-processed food (one Macdonald = 1 Euro)
• GMO Labeling war in US (Maine, California)
18
The right to food is not mentioned
• Although food is legally-technically a human
right for EU institutions & members, it is not
politically endorsed (Vivero & Schuftan, in press)
Free Trade – Corporate Driven
• Sustainable intensification (PPPs driven, Hawkes & Buse, 2011)
• Pro-poor Enabling Environment
• Freer & more transparent Markets & Trade (EuroGroup?)
19
Setting public health objectives &
policies is simply not an
appropriate role for the private
sector. They shall be excluded
from decision making processes.
20
Current free trade is detrimental to Global South
Deadlock in WTO Doha Round: the Global South
is against
21
De Schutter (2011)
“The food bills of LDCs
increased five- or six-fold
between 1992 and 2008.
Imports now account for
around 25 per cent of their
current food consumption.
These countries are caught
in a vicious cycle. The more
they are told to rely on
trade, the less they invest in
domestic agriculture. And
the less they support their
own farmers, the more they
have to rely on trade,”
De Schutter (2011). The World Trade Organization and the Post-Global Food Crisis
Agenda: Putting Food Security First in the International Trade System. 22
JRC Report Recommendations
1. Food products liberalised
2. Food safety standards more stringent
3. Demand-driven, market-supplied
4. “Feeding the World = Feeding the cities”
(70% of hungry people are rural producers)
23
Decentralised entities having a
larger role in food governance
(municipal, cities)
Culture of innovation
from the ground up
World Food Governance cannot
be restricted to WTO, but broader
than CFS (Rome)…
Do they mean G-20, G-8, WEF?
POSITIVE
REFLECTIONS
24
No mention to
food as vital need
No food as cultural
determinant
Food as opportunity for
trade, innovation, health,
wealth & geopolitics (p.34)
No food as
human right
25
What would happen if…international trade
in agriculture broke down? (p.34-35)
JRC: Positive
prospects
26
THIS IS THE EUROPEAN
FOOD SYSTEM
27
Food security
in compliance
with societal
requirements
Fair income
Singularity of
the agricultural
sector
Reasonable
consumer
price
Guiding
Principles of
EU CAP
1962-2016
28
1962: produce more + good prices
for farmers
Guaranteed Prices & Shared Funding
1992: From market to producer
support
1990s: Organic farming & food
quality
2000: Rural Development
2003: CAP REF (market oriented &
conditionality)
2000s: Open Food Trade (EBA)
What do we do with farmers?
2007: Farming population doubles
2011: CAP REF (competitiveness).
Climate Change, Rural Landscapes,
employment, leisure, innovation
2014: CAP is 40% of
EU Budget
52 Billion Euro
(0.43% of EU GDP)
29
30
• Farmers represent 5.4 percent of the EU’s population. Yet
they receive 40 percent of the EU’s total budget through
CAP.
• Bigger farmers are the greatest beneficiaries, with 20% of
farmers estimated to receive 74% of funding
• Europe’s taxpayers hand over €52 billion in subsidies
EU AGRICULTURE´S SHARE
• 12 million farms in the European Union (2010).
• Around 10 million persons are (directly) employed in
agriculture, representing 5% of total employment
• Farm Structure Survey (FSS) indicates that 25 million
people were regularly engaged in farm work (agriculture +
non-agriculture) in the EU during 2010
Source: EU Agricultural Economics Briefs No 8 | July 2013. How many people work in agriculture in the European
Union? An answer based on Eurostat data sources
http://www.ecpa.eu/information-page/agriculture-today/common-agricultural-policy-cap 31
Why so much for so few?
Although not recognized publicly, food is not like
other commodities. It is “the special one”
In 1985, around 70% of EU budget went to agriculture
“Agriculture's relatively large share of the EU budget is entirely
justified; it is the only policy funded almost entirely from the
budget. This means that EU spending replaces national
expenditure to a large extent”
“The average EU farmer receives less than half of what the
average US farmer receives in public support”
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/budget/explained/myths/myths_en.cfm
32
DE-8,774
IT-4,101
FR-3,843
NL-2,678
SE-1,463
UK-844
BE,-721
DK-543
AT-356
FI-319
LU-22
CY,-18
MT,30
SI,114
EE,227
LV,407
IE566
BG,670
SK,726
LT,843
HU,1,112
CZ,1,178
RO,1,581
PT2,695
ES2,813
PL,4,442
EL6,280
-9,000
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
+0
+1,000
+2,000
+3,000
+4,000
+5,000
+6,000
+7,000
Net payers position to EU per Member State, 2008, in EUR million
EU 15
EU 12
België
33
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Latvia
Estonia
Romania
Lithuania
Portugal
NMS12
Spain
Poland
Slovakia
Austria
Sweden
UnitedKingdom
Finland
CzechRepublic
EU27
Luxemburg
EU15
Bulgaria
Slovenia
France
Hungary
Ireland
Cyprus
Italy
Germany
Denmark
Netherlands
Belgium
Malta
Greece
Average payment per hectare per MS
34
35
Proposals
for an EU
COMMON
FOOD
POLICY
36
To guarantee school
meals for all students in
public schools
37
To support local purchase
(small farming, agro-
ecology & cooperatives) to
satisfy food needs of
municipal premises
38
Stricter & innovative rules to
avoid food waste
To recycle all expired food (i.e. France)
Supporting citizens´ collective actions to
reduced waste,
promote food sharing
and co-producing
39
Shifting from charitable food
(Food Banks) to food as right
(Universal Food Coverage)
A food bank network that is
universal, accountable, compulsory
and not voluntary, random, targeted
40
Compulsory rooftop
greening for every new
building
(with edibles, non-edibles)
41
Establishing bakeries
where every citizen
can get access to a
bread loaf every day
(if needed or willing to)
42
Encourage Food Policy
Councils (open membership
to citizens) through
participatory democracies,
financial seed capital and
enabling laws43
Set target for food provisioning in
2030
(Food Council)
• 60% private sector
• 25% self-production (collective
actions)
• 15% state-provisioning (public
buildings, destitute people,
unemployed families) through
Universal Food Coverage
44
45
Eager to exchange on food as a commons
Many uncertainties & gaps remain to be
developed in a common way combining
praxis with normative social constructs
@joselviveropol
joseluisviveropol
http://hambreyderechoshumanos.blogspot.com
http://hungerpolitics.wordpress.com
Jose Luis Vivero Pol
joseluisvivero@gmail.com

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Europe’s Food & Agriculture in 2050 A critical analysis of prospective reports

  • 1. Europe’s Food & Agriculture in 2050 A critical analysis of prospective reports Course on Advanced Studies “Europe 2050. Trends and Challenges” Institute for European Global Studies, University of Basel (05-04-2016) JOSE LUIS VIVERO POL PhD Research Fellow in Food Governance Centre for Philosophy of Law/Earth & Life Institute 1
  • 3. Food Insecurity (unability to eat meat every second day): 10.9%. 13.5 M people 2.7% increase since austerity measures 30 M Malnutrition (Transmango Project) 3
  • 4. EUROPA leaving many behind because food is not a right 4
  • 5. • 123 M poor EU people (1/4) (Oxfam, 2015) • 50 M severe material deprivation: food, water…(EUROSTAT, 2015) • 2009-15, + 7.5 M poor • 30-40% children (6 EU members) below poverty line (UNICEF, 2014) • Increasing children at school with no breakfast (UK, Netherlands, Spain) 5
  • 6. No RtF in EU: How is that possible? • NOT in European Social Charter • NOT in any EU constitution • NOT in MDGs & SDGs narrative • Proposal in Belgium: National Food Policy Council including whole food chain (Eggen, 2014) • Proposal in Spain: RtF in Constitution • European Citizen´s Initiative + EP: water as human right + commons • Universal Food Coverage (non-existing) 6
  • 7. Countries supporting RtF Few countries investing in the Right to Food 7
  • 8. 8
  • 9. RECAP: Europe´s Food Security in 1 min • 1945-1980: Increase production at any cost • 1980-2008: Production reached. So…quality, lower prices, commodification (biofuels, financialisation, long chains, global trade) • 2008-2016: Two food crises. Climate change will threat Food. Limited resources (water, soil, P, N). Obesity • 2016-2050: Securing Food Supply. More trade. Common Food Policy 9
  • 10. Global food system: crisis & transition • Rising Obesity / Steady Hunger (2.3 billion): We eat badly • Inefficient (wasting one third, yields stagnated, few crops) • The way we produce/eat food is main driver of climate change & moving beyond planetary boundaries • Population as a threat but world produces enough food for all • Diet transition towards more meat (less efficient, less healthy) Food kills people OBESITY: 3.4 million deaths annually, 1120 million people by 2030 (Ng et al. 2014; Kelly et al. 2008) HUNGER: largest contributor to maternal-child mortality worldwide, 3.1 million children (Black et al. 2013). 10
  • 11. Commodification (C) of food as major driver • (C) dominant force since XIX (Polanyi, 1944; Sandel, 2013; Sraffa, 1960) • (C): development of traits that fit with mechanized processes • Human-induced social construct that denies non-economic attributes of food in favour of its tradable features (durability, external beauty, standardisation, cheap calories, food miles) • (C) crowds out non-market values and the idea of food as something worth caring about (Sandel, 2012). • (C) root cause of crisis (Magdoff, 2010; Zerbe, 2009; Kloppenburg, 2004). • Food speculation as ultimate alienation of food from its primary value-in-use (feeding people) • Metabolic rift between consumers and distant producers • Food agency restricted “sovereign act of consuming” 11
  • 12. Business as usual TRANSMANGO: 4 scenarios to analyse Other Transitions 12
  • 13. Causal links & Incidence Share Based on heuristics and ideologies Where do we want to go? Agency in Transition 13
  • 14. Global Food Security 2030 Joint Research Centre Foresight research with ideological stance and biased worldview 14
  • 15. Scientific facts or Ideological Positions? Imagining beyond the permitted ideas 15
  • 16. Food security is securing the supply of food that answers the emerging demand
  • 17. 1.- Demand-driven Food Systems • Consumer Sovereignty (individual consumer is the king, societal citizen is secondary) • Private satisfaction VS common good • Responsible consumer behaviour • Influencing power of commercials, media, subsidized agriculture, cheap prices (absent) • Empowerment of consumer: Where is the state? 17
  • 18. Page 21 • Are we safe by a low cost food system? Not healthy, not diverse, not sustainable • Food deserts in US (what´s consumer´s choice?) • Unhealthy ultra-processed food (one Macdonald = 1 Euro) • GMO Labeling war in US (Maine, California) 18
  • 19. The right to food is not mentioned • Although food is legally-technically a human right for EU institutions & members, it is not politically endorsed (Vivero & Schuftan, in press) Free Trade – Corporate Driven • Sustainable intensification (PPPs driven, Hawkes & Buse, 2011) • Pro-poor Enabling Environment • Freer & more transparent Markets & Trade (EuroGroup?) 19
  • 20. Setting public health objectives & policies is simply not an appropriate role for the private sector. They shall be excluded from decision making processes. 20
  • 21. Current free trade is detrimental to Global South Deadlock in WTO Doha Round: the Global South is against 21
  • 22. De Schutter (2011) “The food bills of LDCs increased five- or six-fold between 1992 and 2008. Imports now account for around 25 per cent of their current food consumption. These countries are caught in a vicious cycle. The more they are told to rely on trade, the less they invest in domestic agriculture. And the less they support their own farmers, the more they have to rely on trade,” De Schutter (2011). The World Trade Organization and the Post-Global Food Crisis Agenda: Putting Food Security First in the International Trade System. 22
  • 23. JRC Report Recommendations 1. Food products liberalised 2. Food safety standards more stringent 3. Demand-driven, market-supplied 4. “Feeding the World = Feeding the cities” (70% of hungry people are rural producers) 23
  • 24. Decentralised entities having a larger role in food governance (municipal, cities) Culture of innovation from the ground up World Food Governance cannot be restricted to WTO, but broader than CFS (Rome)… Do they mean G-20, G-8, WEF? POSITIVE REFLECTIONS 24
  • 25. No mention to food as vital need No food as cultural determinant Food as opportunity for trade, innovation, health, wealth & geopolitics (p.34) No food as human right 25
  • 26. What would happen if…international trade in agriculture broke down? (p.34-35) JRC: Positive prospects 26
  • 27. THIS IS THE EUROPEAN FOOD SYSTEM 27
  • 28. Food security in compliance with societal requirements Fair income Singularity of the agricultural sector Reasonable consumer price Guiding Principles of EU CAP 1962-2016 28
  • 29. 1962: produce more + good prices for farmers Guaranteed Prices & Shared Funding 1992: From market to producer support 1990s: Organic farming & food quality 2000: Rural Development 2003: CAP REF (market oriented & conditionality) 2000s: Open Food Trade (EBA) What do we do with farmers? 2007: Farming population doubles 2011: CAP REF (competitiveness). Climate Change, Rural Landscapes, employment, leisure, innovation 2014: CAP is 40% of EU Budget 52 Billion Euro (0.43% of EU GDP) 29
  • 30. 30
  • 31. • Farmers represent 5.4 percent of the EU’s population. Yet they receive 40 percent of the EU’s total budget through CAP. • Bigger farmers are the greatest beneficiaries, with 20% of farmers estimated to receive 74% of funding • Europe’s taxpayers hand over €52 billion in subsidies EU AGRICULTURE´S SHARE • 12 million farms in the European Union (2010). • Around 10 million persons are (directly) employed in agriculture, representing 5% of total employment • Farm Structure Survey (FSS) indicates that 25 million people were regularly engaged in farm work (agriculture + non-agriculture) in the EU during 2010 Source: EU Agricultural Economics Briefs No 8 | July 2013. How many people work in agriculture in the European Union? An answer based on Eurostat data sources http://www.ecpa.eu/information-page/agriculture-today/common-agricultural-policy-cap 31
  • 32. Why so much for so few? Although not recognized publicly, food is not like other commodities. It is “the special one” In 1985, around 70% of EU budget went to agriculture “Agriculture's relatively large share of the EU budget is entirely justified; it is the only policy funded almost entirely from the budget. This means that EU spending replaces national expenditure to a large extent” “The average EU farmer receives less than half of what the average US farmer receives in public support” Source: http://ec.europa.eu/budget/explained/myths/myths_en.cfm 32
  • 35. 35
  • 37. To guarantee school meals for all students in public schools 37
  • 38. To support local purchase (small farming, agro- ecology & cooperatives) to satisfy food needs of municipal premises 38
  • 39. Stricter & innovative rules to avoid food waste To recycle all expired food (i.e. France) Supporting citizens´ collective actions to reduced waste, promote food sharing and co-producing 39
  • 40. Shifting from charitable food (Food Banks) to food as right (Universal Food Coverage) A food bank network that is universal, accountable, compulsory and not voluntary, random, targeted 40
  • 41. Compulsory rooftop greening for every new building (with edibles, non-edibles) 41
  • 42. Establishing bakeries where every citizen can get access to a bread loaf every day (if needed or willing to) 42
  • 43. Encourage Food Policy Councils (open membership to citizens) through participatory democracies, financial seed capital and enabling laws43
  • 44. Set target for food provisioning in 2030 (Food Council) • 60% private sector • 25% self-production (collective actions) • 15% state-provisioning (public buildings, destitute people, unemployed families) through Universal Food Coverage 44
  • 45. 45 Eager to exchange on food as a commons Many uncertainties & gaps remain to be developed in a common way combining praxis with normative social constructs @joselviveropol joseluisviveropol http://hambreyderechoshumanos.blogspot.com http://hungerpolitics.wordpress.com Jose Luis Vivero Pol joseluisvivero@gmail.com