Daily livestock report mar 27 2013


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Daily livestock report mar 27 2013

  1. 1. Sponsored by Vol. 11, No. 58 / March 27, 2013 In addition to two very important grain reports (see DLR Analyst Estimates of USDA March Hogs and Pigs Report3/26), USDA will also release on Thursday (3PM ET) the Source: Dow Jones. Percent of Year Agoresults of its quarterly survey of hogs and pigs inventoriesas of March 1, 2013. On average, analysts expect total hogs All hogs and pigs on March 1 100.7 100.3 - 101.6and pigs inventories as of March 1 to be 0.7% higher than the Kept for breeding 100.3 99.7 - 101.2previous year. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on the ground Kept for marketing 100.8 100.3 - 101.7is a function of the number of pigs that were added to the overallinventory on December 1 (pig crop, imports) and the number of Dec-Feb pig crop 101.2 100.6 - 101.7hogs and pigs that were removed (slaughter, death loss). So far Dec-Feb pigs per litter 101.1 100.6 - 101.5the balance sheet tends to be close to the average of analysts esti- Dec-Feb farrowings 100.1 99.7 - 100.3mates, although much still depends on key assumptions, especial- Mar-May farrowing intentions 98.7 97.9 - 99.8ly about the size of the pig crop in the past quarter. Analysts Jun-Aug farrowing intentions 100.9 98.9 - 101.6expect the pig crop for the December through February quarter tobe 1.2% larger than the previous year, an increase that adds Hogs weighing under 50 lbs 100.9 100.4 - 101.5about 350,000 head to the available supply for the quarter com- Hogs weighing 50 to 119 lbs 100.7 100.1 - 102.7pared to the previous year. One caveat in this regard is that this Hogs weighing 120-179 lbs 99.9 99.4 - 101.5assumes no revisions to previous year’s numbers. The pace of Hogs weighing 180 and over 101.6 99.7 - 103.8hog imports from Canada was notably slower this year comparedto the year before and that will reduce the number of hogs that SOWS FARROWING VS. PIG CROP: 2000 - 2013, QUARTERLYentered the total hog supply for the quarter. Weekly data from 31,500 3,270USDA shows that for the period December through February, 30,500 Pig Crop 3,190total hogs and pig imports from Canada were down about 9.5% 29,500from a year ago. This will help offset about a third of the gains in 3,110the pig crop. Then there is the issue of hogs that were removed 28,500 3,030during the quarter. Based on the USDA monthly slaughter statis- 27,500 2,950tics, hog slaughter for the period Dec-Feb was 28.019 million 26,500head, down 1.8% from a year ago. Using these inputs and also 25,500 2,870accounting for a normal death rate, one can see why hogs and 2,790pigs inventories as of March 1, 2013 are expected to be larger 24,500 Farrowings 2,710than they were the previous year. Again, keep an eye on those 23,500USDA revisions of prior quarters and especially on the farrowing 22,500 2,630numbers for the Dec - Feb quarter. 21,500 estimates 2,550 The industry has benefited in recent years from improve- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013ments in productivity, with the number of pigs per litter steadilyincreasing. While the pace is expected to slow down, especially as could have total hog inventory that is smaller than it was on Junegroup housing is adopted more broadly, the expectation is for lit- 1, 2012.ter size to continue to expand, probably at a rate of about 1-1.5%for the remainder of the year. This is important when consider- The breeding herd estimate is for only a modest increaseing the analyst estimates for Mar-May and Jun-Aug farrowing compared to previous quarter (about 20,000 head) and also aintentions. On average, analysts expect farrowings for Mar - May modest gain on year ago levels. Female slaughter so far this yearto be down 1.3% from a year ago. Even with more pigs per litter, has been running below year ago levels. According to the latestit is possible that the pig crop for the quarter could be down com- data from University of Missouri, year to date sow slaughter ispared to the previous year. That decline combined with higher down 1% while gilt slaughter is down 3.5% from a year ago. Sowexpected slaughter (see market hog inventory expectations above) prices have increased sharply in recent weeks, another indicationand fewer hogs coming from Canada, implies that by June 1 we that producers are gearing up for lower feed prices and higher production in 2014. The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy this report, find if valuable and would like to sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor. Just go to www.DailyLivestockReport.com to contribute by credit card or send your check to The Daily Livestock Report, P.O. Box 2, Adel, IA 50003. Thank you for your support!The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer & Len Steiner, Inc., Adel, IA and Merrimack, NH. To subscribe, support or unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com. Copyright © 2013Steve Meyer and Len Steiner, Inc. All rights reserved.The Daily Livestock Report is not owned, controlled, endorsed or sold by CME Group Inc. or its affiliates and CME Group Inc. and its affiliates disclaim any and all responsibility for the informa oncontained herein. CME Group®, CME® and the Globe logo are trademarks of Chicago Mercan le Exchange, Inc.Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for informa on purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implica on or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicita- on to buy or trade any commodi es or securi es whatsoever. Informa on is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied orpossible where projec ons of future condi ons are a empted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indica on of future performance.Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money ini ally deposited for a futuresposi on. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affec ng their lifestyle. 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