Daily livestock report apr 11 2013

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Daily livestock report apr 11 2013

  1. 1. Sponsored by Vol. 12, No. 68 / April 11, 2013 USDA issued yesterday, April 10, its latest forecasts USDA Estimates of 2013 Beef & Pork Production Data shows the USDA estimates of 2013 as published in each monthly WASDE reportfor beef, pork and poultry production for the remainder ofthe year. The first forecasts for 2014 will be issued next month. 25,300 mi l lb. BEEFThe charts to the right show how the production estimates for the 25,200three main species have evolved in the last 12 months and put the 25,100current changes in some perspective. The biggest revision in the 25,000latest report was with regard to beef production. Total commer- 24,900cial production is estimated to be 24.976 billion pounds, 230 mil- 24,800lion pounds or 0.9% less than the forecast presented in the March 24,700report. The decline likely reflects expectations for a notable reduc- 24,600tion in cattle slaughter, especially in the second half of the year 24,500 24,400and a slowdown in cattle carcass weight gains. Smaller feedlot 24,300placements will continue to limit the number of cattle coming to Jan Nov Jan Nov Mar Apr May Mar Apr May Feb Aug Sep Feb Aug Sep Dec Dec Jul Jul Jun Jun Oct Octmarket in the next few months. The slowdown in weight gains is Estimates presented in 2012 … …and so far this yearalso significant as last year the surge in cattle weights managed tooffset a good portion of the decline in the number of cattle coming 24,000 mil lb. PORKto market. The changes to imports and exports were relatively 23,800small, with import volume increased by 10 million pounds or 0.4% 23,600and export volume reduced by 15 million pounds or 0.6%. The 23,400adjustments largely reflect trade flows based on the February data 23,200and to a lesser extent the pace of weekly export shipments todate. 23,000In all, the latest WASDE report reduced the per-capita consump- 22,800tion figure by 0.7% compared to it latest forecast and per capitaconsumption for 2013 is now pegged at 55.7 pounds, down 2.9% 22,600compared to a year ago. Despite the reduction in meat availabil- 22,400ity, the price response at both retail and foodservice counter has 22,200 Apr Apr Jan Nov Aug Jan Nov Aug Mar May Dec Mar May Dec Feb Sep Feb Sep Jul Jul Jun Jun Oct Octbeen underwhelming. Live cattle futures dropped to contract Estimates presented in 2012 … …and so far this yearlows in yesterday’s trading. Canada also announced that it wouldimpose about $1 billion in tariffs in US goods to compensate for 38,000 mil lb. BROILERSthe impact of Mandatory Country of Origin Labelling (MCOOL) onCanadian beef and pork coming into the US. Canada is one of the 37,500largest buyers of US beef and the tariffs will likely impact US beef 37,000shipments to the Canadian market. Please note that today isthe last day for comments regarding MCOOL 36,500 USDA raised its guidance on pork production for 2013. 36,000Total commercial pork output was estimated at 23.522 bil-lion pounds, 130 million pounds or 0.6% larger than the 35,500forecast presented in March and 1.1% higher than 2012 pro-duction. The adjustment reflects the upward revision in pig crop 35,000 Apr Apr Jan Nov Nov Aug Jan Aug Mar May Dec Mar May Dec Feb Sep Feb Sep Jul Jul Jun Jun Octnumbers presented in the latest Hogs and Pigs report. Lower feed Oct Estimates presented in 2012 … …and so far this yearcosts in the second half are seen improving hog producer profita-bility and support a modest increase in year over year production.USDA also lowered its estimates of US pork production, reducing The combination of more pork coming to market and less going toexpected 2013 pork exports by 160 million pounds or 3% compared export is expected to bolster pork availability in the domestic mar-to the forecast given in March. As a result, pork exports in 2013 ket, helping keep pork prices in check. Pork per capita consump-are now expected to be 3.3% smaller than they were a year ago. tion is now expected to be 46.8 pounds per person (retail wt), 2% higher than a year ago. The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy this report, find if valuable and would like to sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor. Just go to www.DailyLivestockReport.com to contribute by credit card or send your check to The Daily Livestock Report, P.O. Box 2, Adel, IA 50003. Thank you for your support!The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer & Len Steiner, Inc., Adel, IA and Merrimack, NH. To subscribe, support or unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com. Copyright © 2013Steve Meyer and Len Steiner, Inc. All rights reserved.The Daily Livestock Report is not owned, controlled, endorsed or sold by CME Group Inc. or its affiliates and CME Group Inc. and its affiliates disclaim any and all responsibility for the informa oncontained herein. CME Group®, CME® and the Globe logo are trademarks of Chicago Mercan le Exchange, Inc.Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for informa on purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implica on or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicita- on to buy or trade any commodi es or securi es whatsoever. Informa on is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied orpossible where projec ons of future condi ons are a empted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indica on of future performance.Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money ini ally deposited for a futuresposi on. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affec ng their lifestyle. And only a por on of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because atrader cannot expect to profit on every trade.

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