Daily livestock report apr 01 2013
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  • 1. Sponsored by Vol. 11, No. 60 / April 1, 2013 According to the latest USDA survey of US hog produc- 000 HEAD US HOGS KEPT FOR BREEDING:ers, total hog and pig inventories as of March 1 were 65.911 6,300 QUARTERLY INVENTORY, 000 HEADmillion head, 1.5% larger than a year ago. Prior to the reportanalysts were expecting a 0.7% increase in the total of hogs com- 6,200ing to market. USDA made some notable revisions to previouslyreported numbers. The September 1 inventory was revised up by 6,100470,000 head while the December 1 inventory was revised by 6,00065,000 head. USDA goes back and revises previously reportedinventories based on actual slaughter numbers. 5,900 The inventory of market hogs as of March 1 was60.077 million head, 1.6% larger than a year ago. Inventories 5,800of hogs over 180 pounds, which is basically hogs and came to mar- 5,700ket in March, were up 2.3% from a year ago. This is consistentwith weekly hog slaughter for March which is currently running 5,600around 2.1% above year ago levels. Inventories of pigs under 50pounds were 19.426 million head, 1%larger than a year ago. Mar- 5,500ket hogs in the 50-120 pound category were up 1.5% from a year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013ago while hogs weighing 120-180 pounds were 2.2% higher thanlast year. This implies that that hog slaughter for Q2 of 2013 willbe larger than earlier expected. The latest WASDE supply/ US QUARTERLY PIG CROP Intent. 31,000demand tables pegged total pork production for Q2 at 0.9% aboveyear ago levels. However, with hog weights steady to slightly low- 30,000er than a year ago and around 1.8% more hogs coming to marketduring the quarter, we could see pork production up 1.3% for Q2. 29,000 Producers surveyed in March indicated that they expect 28,000to keep farrowings in check for the next two quarters. Farrowingintentions for the March—May quarter were pegged at 2.955 mil- 27,000lion head, 0.9% below year ago levels while farrowings for Jun- 26,000Aug were 2.905 million head, 0.8% lower than a year ago. Despitethe expected lower farrowings, the pig crop should be modestly 25,000higher in the next two quarters, thanks to steady gains in the 24,000number of pigs per litter. The latest survey showed that 10.08pigs were saved from each litter in the Dec-Feb quarter, a 1.1% 23,000increase from a year ago. While producers continue to increasethe number of pigs saved per litter, the pace of increases has 22,000slowed down. And with more hogs expected to go into group hous- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013ing facilities in the coming years, the expectation is for pig perlitter growth to remain slow. The biggest risk to the projections ago. However, feed and residual use for the six months Sep - Feb,for future supplies is the true rate of farrowings. There is plenty is down just 6%. The year over year change in quarterly grainof anticipation this spring that big corn plantings (+97.3 million stocks has become much more volatile, in part due to more volatileacres) will help boost corn supplies and push corn prices lower by weather events but also the increased importance of ethanol pro-next fall. Also, USDA reported on Thursday that corn supplies as duction as both a consumer of corn and supplier of feed by-of March 1 were not as tight as previously thought. The grain products.stocks estimate caught many in the market on the wrong side, Bottom line: A larger than expected hog inventory and lower cornwith most analysts ahead of the report expecting notably lower prices should help contain pork price inflation for the balance ofstocks. The USDA March 1 stocks estimate implies a feed use 2013 and in 2014.during the Dec - Feb period that is down almost 30% from a year The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy this report, find if valuable and would like to sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor. Just go to www.DailyLivestockReport.com to contribute by credit card or send your check to The Daily Livestock Report, P.O. Box 2, Adel, IA 50003. Thank you for your support!The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer & Len Steiner, Inc., Adel, IA and Merrimack, NH. To subscribe, support or unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com. Copyright © 2013Steve Meyer and Len Steiner, Inc. All rights reserved.The Daily Livestock Report is not owned, controlled, endorsed or sold by CME Group Inc. or its affiliates and CME Group Inc. and its affiliates disclaim any and all responsibility for the informa oncontained herein. CME Group®, CME® and the Globe logo are trademarks of Chicago Mercan le Exchange, Inc.Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for informa on purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implica on or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicita- on to buy or trade any commodi es or securi es whatsoever. Informa on is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied orpossible where projec ons of future condi ons are a empted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indica on of future performance.Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money ini ally deposited for a futuresposi on. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affec ng their lifestyle. And only a por on of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because atrader cannot expect to profit on every trade.
  • 2. Page 2 Sponsored by Vol. 11, No. 60 / April 1, 2013 USDA HOGS AND PIGS REPORT: MARCH 1, 2013 2013 AS % 2013 AS %CATEGORY 2011 2012 2013 OF 2011 OF 2012ALL HOGS AND PIGS 63,684 64,937 65,911 103.5% 101.5%KEPT FOR BREEDING 5,788 5,820 5,834 100.8% 100.2%KEPT FOR MARKET 57,896 59,117 60,077 103.8% 101.6%UNDER 50 POUNDS 18,863 19,235 19,426 103.0% 101.0%50-119 POUNDS 16,060 16,409 16,650 103.7% 101.5%120-179 POUNDS 12,361 12,780 13,059 105.6% 102.2%180 POUNDS AND OVER 10,612 10,693 10,942 103.1% 102.3%SOW FARROWINGS 1DEC - FEB 2,843 2,864 2,879 101.3% 100.5% 2MAR - MAY 2,917 2,982 2,955 101.3% 99.1% 1, 3, 4DEC - MAY 5,760 5,847 5,834 101.3% 99.8% 2JUN - AUG 2,927 2,928 2,905 99.2% 99.2%SEP - NOV 2,929 2,900 0.0% 0.0% 4JUN - NOV 5,857 5,829 0.0% 0.0%PIG CROP 1DEC - FEB 27,866 28,550 29,019 104.1% 101.6%MAR - MAY 29,252 30,077 0.0% 0.0% 1, 4DEC - MAY 57,118 58,627 0.0% 0.0%JUN - AUG 29,355 29,654 0.0% 0.0%SEP - NOV 29,365 29,443 4JUN - NOV 58,720 59,097PIGS PER LITTER 1DEC - FEB 9.80 9.97 10.08 102.9% 101.1%MAR - MAY 10.03 10.09 0.0% 0.0% 1DEC - MAY 9.92 10.03 0.0% 0.0%JUN - AUG 10.03 10.13 0.0% 0.0%SEP - NOV 10.02 10.15JUN - NOV 10.03 10.14(1) - Dec. preceding year(2) - Intentions for 2013(3) - Actual farrowings for December 2012 - February 2013 plus intentions for March - May 2013(4) - May not add due to rounding The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy this report, find if valuable and would like to sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor. Just go to www.DailyLivestockReport.com to contribute by credit card or send your check to The Daily Livestock Report, P.O. Box 2, Adel, IA 50003. Thank you for your support!
  • 3. Page 3 Sponsored by Vol. 11, No. 60 / April 1, 2013PRODUCTION & PRICE SUMMARY Week Ending 3/30/2013 Current Y/Y % Item Units Week Last Week Pct. Change Last Year Pct. Change YTD Change 30-Mar-13 23-Mar-13 31-Mar-12 Total Red Meat & Poultry mil lbs., cwe 1,718 1,707 0.62% 1,671 2.81% 21,109 0.5% FI Slaughter Thou. Head 599 601 -0.33% 602 -0.57% 7,642 -3.1% C FI Cow Slaughter ** Thou. Head 124 124 0.16% 116 7.20% 1,352 -1.3% A Avg. Live Weight Lbs. 1314 1315 -0.08% 1289 1.94% 1,323 1.4% T Avg. Dressed Weight Lbs. 794 796 -0.25% 781 1.66% 798 1.5% T Beef Production Million Lbs. 474.2 476.9 -0.57% 469.2 1.07% 6,050 -2.3% L Live Fed Steer Price $ per cwt 127.76 124.78 2.39% 125.55 1.76% E Dressed Fed Steer Price $ per cwt 203.08 197.77 2.68% 201.87 0.60% OKC Feeder Steer, 600-700 $ per cwt N/A 148.65 N/A 181.37 N/A & Choice Beef Cutout $ per cwt 189.82 193.57 -1.94% 184.65 2.80% Hide/Offal $ per cwt, live wt 14.16 14.25 -0.63% 13.26 6.79% B Rib, Choice $ per cwt 283.97 287.08 -1.08% 277.96 2.16% E Round, Choice $ per cwt 161.81 167.72 -3.52% 156.91 3.12% E Chuck, Choice $ per cwt 161.63 168.91 -4.31% 147.11 9.87% F Trimmings, 50% $ per cwt 89.55 88.09 1.66% 82.94 7.97% Trimmings, 90% $ per cwt 219.49 219.41 0.04% 217.71 0.82% FI Slaughter Thou. Head 2,184 2,176 0.37% 2,126 2.75% 27,652 -0.9% FI Sow Slaughter ** Thou. Head 60.5 57.0 6.29% 55.8 8.43% 617 0.6% H Avg. Dressed Weight Lbs. 208.0 208.0 0.00% 209.0 -0.48% 208 -0.6% O Pork Production Million Lbs. 453.6 451.7 0.42% 443.4 2.30% 5,737 -1.4% G Iowa-S. Minn. Direct Wtd. Avg. 74.76 72.62 2.95% 81.03 -7.74% S Natl. Base Carcass Price Wtd. Avg. 74.73 75.50 -1.02% 82.08 -8.95% Natl. Net Carcass Price Wtd. Avg. 77.08 77.94 -1.10% 84.48 -8.76% Pork Cutout 200 Lbs. 77.40 77.98 -0.74% 80.00 -3.25% Hams $ per cwt 54.33 56.50 -3.84% 59.94 -9.36% Loins $ per cwt 86.41 86.15 0.30% 96.29 -10.26% Bellies $ per cwt 128.69 128.69 0.00% 102.51 25.54% 72CL Pork Trim $ per cwt 52.00 53.00 -1.89% 55.13 -5.68% C Young Chicken Slaughter * Million Head 154.1 151.3 1.90% 150.6 2.35% 1,817 1.2% H Avg. Weight (Live) Lbs. 5.85 5.86 -0.17% 5.73 2.09% 5.83 1.9% I Chicken Production (RTC) Million Lbs. 685.3 673.7 1.73% 647.2 5.89% 8,056 4.5% C Eggs Set Million 199.6 200.2 -0.27% 196.5 1.59% 2,378 1.5% K Chicks Placed Million Head 164.5 164.7 -0.08% 164.7 -0.10% 1,960 0.8% E 12-City Broiler Price Composite 106.69 106.68 0.01% 86.92 22.75% N Georgia Dock Broiler Price 2.5-3 Lbs. 102.05 101.89 0.16% 92.12 10.78% Northeast Breast, B/S $/cwt 152.49 148.8 2.48% 135.69 12.38% Northeast Legs $/cwt 68.72 68.83 -0.16% 75.86 -9.41% T Young Turkey Slaughter * Million Head 4.240 4.15 2.17% 4.619 -8.21% 50.600 -0.7% U Avg. Live Weight Lbs. 30.83 31.56 -2.31% 30.01 2.73% 31.30 0.0% R Turkey Production (RTC) Million Lbs. 104.5 104.8 -0.21% 110.9 -5.73% 1,266 -0.8% K Eastern Region Hen Price 8-16 Lbs. 97.50 95.50 2.09% 104.50 -6.70% G Corn, Omaha $ per Bushel 7.22 7.66 -5.74% 6.12 17.97% R DDGs, Minnesota $ per Ton 263.00 257.50 2.14% 202.50 29.88% A Wheat, Kansas City $ per Bushel 7.00 6.27 11.64% 6.68 4.79% I Soybeans, S. Iowa $ per Bushel 14.42 14.87 -3.03% 13.61 5.95% N Soybn Meal, 48% Decatur $ per Ton 414.10 435.90 -5.00% 369.00 12.22%* Chicken & turkey slaughter & production are 1 week earlier than the date at the top of this sheet.** Cow and sow slaughter reflect levels from two weeks ago due to reporting lag. The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy this report, find if valuable and would like to sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor. Just go to www.DailyLivestockReport.com to contribute by credit card or send your check to The Daily Livestock Report, P.O. Box 2, Adel, IA 50003. Thank you for your support!