The Megatrend After Cloud Computing
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The Megatrend After Cloud Computing

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A survival guide for the organic computing age. www.skilltower.de

A survival guide for the organic computing age. www.skilltower.de

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    The Megatrend After Cloud Computing The Megatrend After Cloud Computing Presentation Transcript

    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing Age The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:How to survive the Organic Computing Age Jörg Osarek, Partner www.its-people.de November 2011© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 1
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeAgenda Liftoff Introduction its-people and Jörg Osarek Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age: We live in a science fiction world! Learning Curve What we learned from the past Where are we now? Complexity wins and wont stop The new Potion We need a new Magic Potion to beat complexity Sample Projects Organic Computing / Organic Information Technology 3 Ingredients 3 Ingredients for our Potion 1) Computing Power , 2) Organic Architecture 3) Organic Thinking and Acting = our Survival Strategy Survival Strategy Business Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and Acting New Ancient thoughts on Control, Growth Maximazation and Competition Broader Picture Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift A New MindSet for the 21st Century Time for the next level © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 2
    • its-people® auf einen Blick Unternehmensphilosophie Leistungsangebot Stärken ◼ Reale Gemeinschaft selbständiger ◼ Kompetenz, Exzellenz und Qualität Projekt-, Qualitäts-, Release-Mgmt Oracle Technologie IT Management Services IT-Experten als Unternehmer Plattform & Anwendungsentwicklung aus praktischer Erfahrung ◼ Auftritt unter der gemeinsamen ◼ Partnerschaft auf Gegenseitigkeit Marke als mitarbeitende Best Practice ERP ◼ Kundenorientierung auf höchster Gesellschafter Mediation, Integration, Migration Ebene ◼ Firmenverbund spezialisierter ◼ Intern und extern gerichteter Werte- Competence Center Business Intelligence & DWH kodex als Geschäftsgrundlage ◼ Synergieeffekte der IT-Experten Architektur, Design & Implementierung ◼ Nähe zum Kunden Unternehmensdaten ◼ Dienstleistungen von Menschen für Business Process Mgmt / SOA Prozessberatung, Architektur & Design, Menschen ◼ Gründung: 2003 Implementierung ◼ Fachlichkeit und Unternehmerschaft ◼ Anzahl der Experten: 70 in Vertrieb und Leistungserbringung Planung, Konzeption, Implementierung, Support its-people Frankfurt GmbH its-people ERP Beratungs- GmbH its-people Hochtaunus GmbH Competence Center "Oracle-Technologie/ Competence-Center “ERP“ Competence-Center “BI & DWH & IT- Management Services" BPM/SOA" Büdesheimer Str. 17, 61130 Nidderau Lyoner Str. 44-48, 60528 Frankfurt am Main Lyoner Straße 44-48, 60528 Frankfurt am Main Tel.: +49 6187 605 999 - 0 Tel.: +49 69 2475198-0 Tel: +49 69 247521-00 E-Mail: frankfurt@its-people.de E-Mail: erp@its-people.de E-Mail: hochtaunus@its-people.de Gemeinsame Besuchsadresse: Lyoner Str. 44-48, 60528 Frankfurt am Main. 8. OG Copyright its-people® 3
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIntroduction Jörg Osarek IT Manage- Cloud ment Computing Game Changing Bio inspired IT & Technologies Organic Computing IT & www.its-people.de Business Co-Founder & Partner Strategy IT Archi- tecture www.skilltower.de Founder & CEO © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 4
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeWelcome to the Cloud Computing Age Fascinated with Science Fiction (=Technology & Mythology since the 1970s) Which fiction became reality? Space ships leaving solar system yes Everybody has a planetwide walkie-talkie yes Space tourism yes Planetwide computer network yes Tablet computers yes Portable universal translator (rudimentary) yes Autostereoscopic Holograms yes Warp drive not yet Autonomous robots on distant planets yes Self conscious machines not yet ... Information Technology = Transformation Key Role © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 5 © Jörg Osarek - own work from the 1970s
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeWelcome to the Cloud Computing Age Today we live in a Science Fiction World called: The Cloud Computing Age While everybody is busy with that I wondered: Whats the next Megatrend after that? With which Business Strategy can you survive this coming age? © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 6 © Jörg Osarek - own work from the 1970s
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeThe Universe Learning Curve from the Past You are Complexity Here today. beats simplicity - and it wont stop Sciences growing! Technology DNA Big Molecules Mythology Bang Quarks Atoms and others Culture Life © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 7
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeThe Universe Learning Curve from the Past Complexity beats simplicity - and it wont stop What can save us growing! from the greedy complexity monster? © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 8
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeThe new Magic Potion What can save us from the greedy complexity monster? A new Magic Potion that enables systems to self organize, self heal, self learn, self optimize. Lets call it: Organic IT or Bio inspired IT © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 9
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeThe new Magic Potion: widely used todayOrganic Components used in our everyday lives:■ E-Mail Spam Filters (Artificial Neural Networks)■ Business-Intelligence-Systems (Data Mining)■ OCR-Systems (Recognition of writing)■ simple artificial characters and agents e.g. in Computer games (Bots)■ Speech and speaker recognition (Service-Hotlines)■ Systems that predict stock markets and the weather■ Systems that pilot unmanned drone aircrafts■ ... © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 10
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeThe new Magic Potion: Example Projects■ AnimatLab: IDE for ALife and Neural Networks with Physics Simulation■ Blue Brain project since 2005 (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland) : Goal: Constructing a complete virtual brain in a supercomputer. Success: simulating a rat cortical column.■ (Cat-)Brain Simulator from IBM funded by DARPA with 40 Million US$. http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/ibm-unveils-a-new-brain-simulator■ IBMs Autonomic Computing Initiative■ China Brain project: 2008-2011■ Triops of the Artificial Life Lab: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wx6DvjndhA © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 11
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeThe new Magic Potion: Example Projects Priority Research Program of German Research Foundation (DFG 1183) 2006-2011 (challenges for informatics regarding creation of technical systems from 2015) ■ Controlled Self Organization@complex networked systems ■ OC Workshop on ICAC 2011 in Karlsruhe ■ overlaps in main areas with IBMs Autonomic Computing ■ Bio inspired IT-Systems: Hardware and Software ■ Self-x-abilities (self configuring, self optimizing, self healing, self protecting, self explaining) ■ Principles: Robustness, Flexibility, Adaptivity ■ uses Agents, Artificial Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, etc. http://www.amazon.de/dp/3034801297/ ■ Observer/Controller Architectures Zentral Mehrschichtig Hierarchisch Verteilt © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 12
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeThe new magic potion: Areas of use & rulers of the game Areas of use ■ intelligent systems managing traffic, energy, water, it systems ■ virtual receptionist ■ virtual butler ■ self conscious robots ■ ... Control and market dominance ■ who controls the intelligence building blocks dominates the market while producing copies at no costs (software) © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 13
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing Age3 Ingredients for our Potion Computing Power Organic IT-Architecture Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and Acting © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 14
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 1: Computing Power With the same increase in performance as computers a standard passenger car today would be able to transport the passengers as many containers of the Oasis as fast as as the of the Seas comet Halley Colombo Express © DannyCornelissen www.portpictures.nl - free to use for any purpose Computers after 25 years: 131.000 x RAM 12.500 x processing speed, 6,25 million x as many storage + many extras © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 15
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 1: Computing Power Für ca. 1.500,- € 2010/2011 Standard PC: 8GB RAM 4x3=12GHz 1TeraByte HD 1985 + Extras like WLAN, GPS, 64KByte RAM Bluetooth, 0,96MHz 2 cameras, 166KByte microphone, Floppy (Video)Telephone pos.transducer Internet via 3G Computers after 25 years: 131.000 x RAM 12.500 x processing speed, 6,25 million x as many storage + many extras © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 16
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 1: Computing Power Für ca. 1.500,- € 2010/2011 2035 Standard ???Dev: Standard PC: 1 Mio. GB RAM 8GB RAM 150.000 GHz 4x3=12GHz 6,25 Mio Terabyte Space 1TeraByte HD 1985 ??? + Extras like Device WLAN, GPS, 64KByte RAM Bluetooth, 0,96MHz 2 cameras, + Extras??? 166KByte microphone, Floppy (Video)Telephone pos.transducer Internet via 3G Computers after 25 years: 131.000 x RAM 12.500 x processing speed, 6,25 million x as many storage + many extras © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 17
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 1: Computing Power Is it possible to create nested networked organic components on a nano scale with 100 billion (100Mrd.) neurons and 70 trillion (Billionen) real time connections? © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 18
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 1: Computing Power Is it possible to create nested networked organic components on a nano scale with 100 billion (100Mrd.) neurons and 70 trillion (Billionen) real time connections? Neural Do-it-yourself Nanotech-Network. Designation: Alexander Yes, it is possible. Building Time: 9 Months We see 7 billion units up and running today on our planet. Going Live: 07.07.2011 Status of training: amazing neural abilities. © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 19
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 2: Organic IT ArchitectureBlueprint for an scalable, elastic Organic Cloud Architecture © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 20
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 2: Organic IT ArchitectureBlueprint for an scalable, elastic Organic Cloud Architecturepossible Development process © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 21
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 2: Organic IT ArchitectureDemo Time:Human Pilot vs. Artificial Neural Networkon the classic Lunar Lander Gamehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GNzFAbk10A © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 22
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & ActingTwo Questions first: ■ Can we fully control our complex traditional IT systems today? © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 23
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & ActingTwo Questions first: ■ Can we fully control our complex traditional IT systems today? ■ So, do you believe we can fully control those new dynamic, self organizing, self healing, self evolving and self defending organic systems? (At least we do have observer controller architectures, right?) © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 24
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting Will we be able to control organic information technology? My personal opinion: Life finds a way! DinoEggs: By de:User:He-ba-mue (uploaded by author) [CC-BY-SA-2.5 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)], via Wikimedia Commons © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 Jakub Hałun (Own work) , CC-BY-SA-3.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/) , via Wikimedia Commons Allosaurus: By 25
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeIngredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting Facing these dangers Stop every progress in we have accept the challenge our lives immediately and return to the caves. 2 simple and prepare with and organic thinking a options acting strategy. © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 26
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeBusiness Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and Acting Exchange principles that dont work any longer Less... More... (Illusion of) ► Guide & Control Influence Growth & Profit ► Robustness, Maximization Reserves, Flexibility Reckless ► Long Term Competition Cooperation © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 27
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeOrganic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm ShiftThe Q-GRINS key disciplines splice together ■ Quantum Physics ■ Genetics / Biotech ■ Robotics ■ Informatics ■ Nano Technology ■ Space TechnologyAdditional evolutionary changes happen in software,hardware and the other Q-GRINS areas © Mike Kiev - Fotolia.com © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 28
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeOrganic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift In the 21st century there will be much more massive change than in 20th century: Technology changes life itself and its evolution! We cross many natural borders while using yetunknown leverages. This multiplies chances+risks. To manage those new challenges mankind has to move to the next mental level: © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 29
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing AgeOrganic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm ShiftThe next mental Level for mankind in 21st century:Principles of the 21st century mindset: Less... More... (Illusion of) Guide & Control Influence Growth & Profit Robustness, Maximization Reserves, Flexibility■ organic thinking (guide, reserves, cooperation) Reckless Long Term Competition Cooperation■ boldness to develop and use new ideas■ sustainability & purpose■ wisely preserve our important heritage. Lets subscribe to this amazing adventure today! © its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 30
    • The Megatrend after Cloud Computing: How to survive the Organic Computing Age its-people® Professionell Partnerschaftlich Innovativ© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 31