Where Have You Heard of Watson?• February 14th, 2011 Watson competed on Jeopardy• In a three day match, Watson won a one million dollar prize• Jeopardy also spent time introducing Watson’s development and capabilities.
What is Watson?• Watson is a machine that can understand and answer natural language.• Basically, Watson acts as a search engine you can speak to.• IBM plans to develop Watson beyond Jeopardy, to advance certain fields.• Although Watson is very smart, it does not have the ability to think as a human.
What does Watson need forit to be successful? • The ability to discern double meanings of words, puns, rhymes, and inferred hints • Extremely rapid responses • The ability to process vast amounts of information to make complex and subtle logical connections
Focus on 3 key capabilities• Natural language processing• Hypothesis generation• Evidence-based learning
Development into aJeopardy! powerhouse• 2006: Watson could get 15% of the questions correct• 2007: A team of 20-25 people, led by David Ferrucci, were given 3-5 years to solve the problems surrounding Watson• 2008: Watson could compete with Jeopardy! Champions• 2010: Watson could regularly beat human Jeopardy! contestants
4 Not-So Simple Steps• Question Analysis• Hypothesis Generation• Hypothesis and Evidence Scoring• Final Merging and Ranking
Question Analysis• Splits question into parts of speech• Identifies each part of speech as a role in the sentence
Hypothesis Generation• Quick search through hundreds of millions of documents• Quantity over accuracy
Hypothesis and Evidence Scoring• Finds passages from the remaining sources for positive or negative evidence• Scoring algorithms rate the quality of these answers
Final Merging and Ranking• Weigh the importance of the different types of evidence• Weighted evidence scores are merged into a final ranking ▫ If the ranking is below 50%, Watson won’t answer ▫ No fixed confidence level for whether Watson will answer or not
Jeopardy! Winner!• Has 200 million pages of information.• Ken Jennings• Brad Rutter
Health Care• WellPoint Inc. and Seton Health Family• Better than a doctor?• Data Mining.• Patients Information.• Results.
Finance• CitiGroup• The process• Data Mining• Next Data Analysis
Supercomputer or Superhero?1. Finance2. Healthcare Dr. Watson3. Public Services
Finance • Big Data vs. Big Strokes • Watson vs. Computer Farms • Patterns vs. AlgorithmsMost financial services firms are dyingof thirst in an ocean of data- IBMChang
Healthcare• Dr. Watson• Information database• Diagnosis and Prescription"The way we doctors work,…we ask ourcolleagues, we ask specialists in thefield. In essence, Watson will havethat capability.” - Dr. Kris Watson
Final quote?Watson is not a deterministic system. Watson learns, based on the information thats fed to it. Its also trained; its a machine-learning system. Its only as smart as the information its fed. Its the way any human being would learn.