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Decision making

Decision making






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    Decision making Decision making Presentation Transcript

      • A Presentation by
      • Deepti Sharma Parul Dahiya
      • Prashant Arora Ravish Nagpal
      • Vishal Chawla
      • What is Decision Making?
      • The Phases in decision making process.
      Our Route Map
      • Decision making in organizations
      • Decision making techniques.
      • Factors Influencing decision making
      • Some Models of Decision making.
      • How do intuition, judgment, and creativity affect decision
      • making?
      • Types of Decisions
      • Managing Decision Making Process-undestanding the reasons for failure
      • Define the Phases in decision making process.
      Objectives of the session
      • Discuss the Creative process .
      • Understanding decision making techniques.
      • Identify some Models of Decision making .
    • Defining Decision Making Chester Barnard gave a comprehensive analytical treatment of decision making. A process of narrowing choice. Decision making is universally defined as choosing between alternatives. A Classical Thought : Fayol & Urwick (Stressed Delegation) Taylor alluded scientific methods only as ideal approach. DECISION MAKING
    • Phases Herbert A. Simons Mintzberg Intelligent Activity Design Activity Choice Activity Selection Phase Development Phase Identification Phase DECISION MAKING
    • Models
      • Rational Model
      • Social Model
      • Bounded Rationality Model
      • Judgement Heuristics and Biases Model.
    • Rational Model
      • ABC
      • EVA
      • MVA
      • CD
      DECISION MAKING Assumptions of Complete Rationality New Rational Techniques.
    • Social Model Opposite extreme of rational. Model of psychology. Human bundle of feeling, emotions, instincts DECISION MAKING Reasons for escalation of commitment. Project Characteristics Psychological Determinants . Social Forces. Organizational Determinants.
    • Bounded Rationality Model
      • Choosing between the alternatives.
      • More Realistic Model.
      Example: A Fair Price Why Bounded ? Constraint Like Time & Cost
    • How do intuition, judgment, and creativity affect decision making?
      • Intuition.
        • The ability to know or recognize quickly and readily the possibilities of a given situation.
        • A key element of decision making under risk and uncertainty.
    • Intuitive Decision Making
      • An unconscious process of making decisions on the basis of experience and accumulated judgment.
        • Making decisions on the basis of gut feeling doesn't happen independently of rational analysis. The two complement each other.
        • Although intuitive decision making will not replace the rational decision-making process, it does play an important role in managerial decision making.
      Decision Making
    • How do judgment affect decision making?
      • Judgmental heuristics.
        • Simplifying strategies or “rules of thumb” used to make decisions.
        • Makes it easier to to deal with uncertainty and limited information.
        • Can lead to systematic errors that affect the quality and/or ethics of decisions.
      Decision Making
      • Creativity factors.
        • Creativity in decision making involves the development of unique and novel responses to problems and opportunities.
        • Creativity is especially important in a dynamic environment full of nonroutine problems.
      Decision Making
    • Creativity Preparation Concentration Incubation Illumination verification Decision Making
      • Decision environments include:
        • Certain environments.
        • Risk environments.
        • Uncertain environments.
      How are decisions made in organizations? Decision Making
    • How are decisions made in organizations?
      • Certain environments.
        • Exist when information is sufficient to predict the results of each alternative in advance of implementation.
        • Certainty is the ideal problem solving and decision making environment.
      Decision Making
    • How are decisions made in organizations?
      • Risk environments.
        • Exist when decision makers lack complete certainty regarding the outcomes of various courses of action, but they can assign probabilities of occurrence.
        • Probabilities can be assigned through objective statistical procedures or personal intuition.
      Decision Making
    • How are decisions made in organizations?
      • Uncertain environments.
        • Exist when managers have so little information that they cannot even assign probabilities to various alternatives and possible outcomes.
        • Uncertainty forces decision makers to rely on individual and group creativity to succeed in problem solving.
      Decision Making
    • Factors Influencing decision making
      • Technology
      • Culture
      • Ethics
      Decision Making
    • How do technology, culture, and ethics influence decision making?
      • Information technology and decision making.
        • Artificial intelligence.
          • The study of how computers can be programmed to think like human beings.
          • Will allow computers to displace many decision makers.
        • Expert systems that support decision making by following “either-or” rules to make deductions.
    • How do technology, culture, and ethics influence decision making?
      • Cultural factors and decision making.
        • Culture is “the way in which a group of people solves problems.”
        • North American culture stresses decisiveness, speed, and the individual selection of alternatives.
        • Other cultures place less emphasis on individual choice than on developing implementations that work.
        • The most important impact of culture on decision making concerns which issues are elevated to the status of problems solvable with the firm.
    • How do technology, culture, and ethics influence decision making?
      • Ethical issues and decision making.
        • Ethical dilemma.
          • A situation in which a person must decide whether or not to do something that, although personally or organizationally beneficial, may be considered unethical and perhaps illegal.
        • Ethical dilemmas are often associated with:
          • Risk and uncertainty.
          • Nonroutine problem situations.
    • How do technology, culture, and ethics influence decision making?
      • Suggestions for integrating ethical decision making into the firm.
        • Develop a code of ethics and follow it.
        • Establish procedures for reporting violations.
        • Involve employees in identifying ethical issues.
        • Monitor ethical performance.
        • Reward ethical behavior.
        • Publicize ethical efforts.
    • Types of Decisions
      • Programmed
      • Non - Programmed
        • Programmed decisions.
          • Involve routine problems that arise regularly and can be addressed through standard responses.
        • Non programmed decisions.
          • Involve nonroutine problems that require solutions specifically tailored to the situation at hand
      Decision Making
    • How can the decision-making process be managed?
      • Reasons for decision making failure.
        • Managers too often copy others’ choices and try to sell them to subordinates.
        • Managers tend to emphasize problems and solutions rather than successful implementation.
        • Managers use participation too infrequently.
        • Time Management
      Decision Making
    • Thank you
      • We are open for Questions if any