local market trends
The Real Estate Report
Sඉඖ Fකඉඖඋඑඛඋ඗
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS…
The median price for condos/lofts rose 10....
Page 2
The Real Estate Report
The chart above shows the
National monthly average for
30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compi...
Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
Average Pri...
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Franc...
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Annie Williams Real Estate Market Trends Aug/Sep 2013

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Annie Williams Real Estate Market Trends Aug/Sep 2013

  1. 1. local market trends The Real Estate Report Sඉඖ Fකඉඖඋඑඛඋ඗ CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS… The median price for condos/lofts rose 10.3% from June, and was up 24.6% year-over-year. Sales were in July by 26.3% from June. Year-over- year, sales gained 18.9%. The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the seventeenth month in a row: 105.8%. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let’s discuss your situation and your options. Mortgage Closing Costs Rising Mortgage closing costs have increased by 6% over the past year, according to Bankrate’s annual closing cost survey. So why are fees rising? You can blame two things: Low and rising mortgage rates, and New regulations. Low mortgage rates over the last year have brought in a wave of refinancing. Loan originators have plenty of business so they don’t have to compete. Plus, they realize rates are going to rise which will decrease the number of loans made. At that point, they will have to decrease fees to be more competitive. The second component of rising costs is the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and its new mortgage regulations. At any rate, all puns intended, if you haven’t re- financed yet, it’s time to do it. JULY MARKET STATISTICS Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 19.9% from last July. The median price for homes dipped for the second month in a row, it was down 7.3% from June. Year-over-year, the median price was up 17.3%. The sale price to list price ratio has been over 100% since September 2011, except for December 2012. Last month is was 107%. SALES MOMENTUM… for single-family, re-sale homes in San Francisco rose 1.1 points to +7.5. Sales momentum for condos/lofts gained 0.4 of a point to +10.3. (See charts below) PRICING MOMENTUM… gained 0.8 of a point to +18.5. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 0.5 of a point to +17.6. WE CALCULATE… momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s 12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a percentage showing market momentum. Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San Francisco 94123 Fax: (415) 202-1686 Cell: (415) 819-2663 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com DRE #01393923 Annie Williams Annie Williams | AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com | Fax: (415) 202-1686 AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2013 Inside This Issue > LOCAL MARKET TRENDS.....................1 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ...............2 > HOME STATISTICS ..............................2 > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................3 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................3 > MOMENTUM CHARTS ..........................4 Jul 13 Jun 13 Jul 12 Home Sales: 259 251 216 Median Price: 890,000$ 960,000$ 759,000$ Average Price: 1,304,399$ 1,183,363$ 1,180,886$ Sale/List Price Ratio: 107.0% 111.2% 100.3% Days on Market: 32 34 47 Jul 13 Jun 13 Jul 12 Condo Sales: 327 259 275 Median Price: 860,000$ 780,000$ 690,000$ Average Price: 1,003,320$ 944,689$ 781,156$ Sale/List Price Ratio: 105.8% 106.4% 101.1% Days on Market: 36 37 59 (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC) Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes) Homes: detached YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough 3-month ##### ###### #NAME? Jun-07 Feb-12 12-month ##### ###### #NAME? Apr-08 Mar-12 Homes: attached 3-month ##### ###### #NAME? Jul-08 Jan-12 12-month ##### ###### #NAME? Aug-08 Jan-12 San Francisco Price Differences from January 2012 & Peak & Trough -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ J San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change © 2013 rereport.com
  2. 2. Page 2 The Real Estate Report The chart above shows the National monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by HSH.com. The average includes mortgages of all sizes, including conforming, "expanded conforming," and jumbo. MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK Aug 2, 2013 -- Although the Federal Reserve failed to tip its hand about future plans for its Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Security buying programs, new suggestions about the strength of the economy moved mortgage rates higher, regardless. This continues a stretch of ambiguous economic data. At times, stronger signals have come, only to be offset by those exhibiting less strength. Even the Fed itself doesn't have a clear grasp, as it seemed to mark down its assessment of the economy's recent pattern from "moderate" to only "modest." HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed- rate mortgages rose by four basis points (0.04%) to 4.59%, erasing all of last week's dip plus a little bit more. The FRMI's 15-year companion also increased by four basis points (0.04%), landing at 3.68% for the week. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs firmed up by five basis points, ticking up to 4.23%, while the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM fell by just one one-hundredths of a percentage point (0.01%) to an average 3.32%. A bit of concern might be found in the report covering construction spending for June. The 0.6% overall decline wasn't particularly scary, as outlays for public and commercial construction projects have been soft at times this year. Rather, it was the turn to flatline for spending on residential construction projects during the month. Home construction has been a pretty reliable support for the economy over the past year, and the stall here does make us wonder if the rise in rates, which began in earnest in June, is the proximate cause of the lack of activity, and how much down force it might end up exerting on the . Mortgage rates are more likely to rise than fall. To see us return to even a 4% level would require a litany of very soft economic data, and that not tempered by any kind of strength or a panic somewhere else in the world which would see a flood of cash looking for a safe haven. Nothing is impossible, of course, but the likely course is that pretty solid and stable growth gives the Fed a chance to move closer to the exit and a process of slipping out the door as quietly and quickly as they can. All indications at the moment suggest that mortgage rates are likely to be flat to slightly higher next week, with an increase of perhaps a handful of basis points at most. Between now and then, we'll be reading the tea leaves and polishing the crystal ball as we work on the next two-month forecast, due out next Friday. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $300 $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ J San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2013 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D1: Northwest #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D2: Central West #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D3: Southwest #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D4: Twin Peaks #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D5: Central #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D6: Central North #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D7: North #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D8: Northeast #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D9: Central East #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D10: Southeast #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? July Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 01-06 04-06 07-06 10-06 01-07 04-07 07-07 10-07 01-08 04-08 07-08 10-08 01-09 04-09 07-09 10-09 01-10 04-10 07-10 10-10 01-11 04-11 07-11 10-11 01-12 04-12 07-12 10-12 01-13 04-13 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
  3. 3. Table Definitions _______________ Median Price The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower. Average Price Add all prices and divide by the number of sales. SP/LP Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided by the asking price. DOI Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current rate of sales. Pend Property under contract to sell that hasn’t closed escrow. Inven Number of properties actively for sale as of the last day of the month. There was one notice of default filed in San Francisco in June! I expect that will be adjusted upward as it was reported there were no notices of default filed in May, but that was revised to 36 this month. There was only one notice of sale filed in June. Again, expect that to be revised upward. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the FORECLOSURE STATISTICS property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank. There were 59 sales cancelled last month. Only four homes went back to the bank in June There was one in May, which was reported correctly. There are currently 158 properties scheduled for sale. With the recent surge in prices, many of them will probably be cancelled. The total number of properties owned by the banks was down 40.2% year-over-year. The banks now own approximately 325 properties in the city. For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to http://foreclosureradar.com. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ J San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2013 rereport.com -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ J San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change © 2013 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D1: Northwest #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D2: Central West #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D3: Southwest #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D4: Twin Peaks #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D5: Central #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D6: Central North #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D7: North #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D8: Northeast #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D9: Central East #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? D10: Southeast #NAME? #NAME? ##### ##### ###### ####### #NAME? #NAME? ####### #NAME? #NAME? July Sales Statistics (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
  4. 4. The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT San Francisco Annie Williams Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San Francisco 94123 Go online to see the full report with the district by district breakdown: HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ J San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum Sales Pricing © 2013 rereport.com -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ J San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum Sales Pricing © 2013 rereport.com

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