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The future of the internet: version 4

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This is a new version of the slides for my "Future of the Internet" talk, as presented at Bazaarvoice on 4/21/2011.

This is a new version of the slides for my "Future of the Internet" talk, as presented at Bazaarvoice on 4/21/2011.

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  • Mac Funamizu: “This is what I wish the internet search will be able to do with a mobile device in the NEAR future. Touch screen, built in camera, scanner, WiFi, google map (hopefully google earth), google search, image search… all in one device. Like this way, when you can see a building through it, it gives you the image search result right on the spot.”
  • What is the Internet?
  • What is the Internet 3: The Noosphere

The future of the internet: version 4 The future of the internet: version 4 Presentation Transcript

  • The Future of the Internet
    Concept by Mac Funamizu, http://petitinvention.wordpress.com/2008/02/10/future-of-internet-search-mobile-version/
  • source: http://www.informationarchitects.jp/slash/iA_WebTrends_2007_2_1600x1024.gif
  • From Mindwest Strategies (http://mindwest.net/)
  • History
  • Evolution
    Arpanet (as of 1983)and NSFNet (1985): TCP/IP networks for research and development
    NSFNet opened to other networks, esp. mail (1988)
    World Wide Web via HTML and HTTP (1989-1991)
  • Evolution of Applications
    Email, Newsgroups, IRC chat, instant messaging for communication
    FTP for moving data
    Archie, Veronica, WAIS for finding data (early search)
    Gopher for distributing, searching, and retrieving documents
    World Wide Web for the same sort of things as Gopher, but with hypertext, and eventuall media
    Altavista, then Google, for finding data on the web (later, more sophisticated search)
    Content Management Systems for publishing
    Blogs and Wikis for sharing information
    Social Networks for finding others, connecting, sustaining connection, sharing media and data
  • It’s all about data.
  • What’s been changing
    Broadband: more bandwidth, faster connections, enabling media distribution over the web
    Adoption: more people doing more things online
    Everything is miscellaneous: information explodes, “wants to be free” and findable quickly without reliance on taxonomies and categorical structures. We engage more randomly with the world (association)
    Voice over IP (e.g. Skype): cheap, immediate voice communication
    Post-Television: Hulu/BitTorrent/Netflix bring on-demand video delivery via computer
    Politics: Grassroots Adhocracies, Tea Party, Egypt and the Middle East, questions about participation, democracy
    Mobility: the world in your pocket, augmented reality
  • ~ Pew Internet
    http://www.pewinternet.org/Presentations/2010/Nov/Opportunity-Online.aspx
  • Effects
    Network effect: everybody gets your email; the Internet becomes exponentially more useful and productive as adoption increases, at least for those who adopt.
    Down side: Unmanageable deluge of useful information.
    Even more unmanageable deluge of useLESS information - spam and noise (~90% of email is spam).
    The Internet grows more valuable, and “money changes everything.”
  • Future
  • Future Scenarios: Network
    Internet: Free and open network of networks, end to end principle, “dumb network.” Facilitated by Freedom Box?
    Cable television: limited selections delivered with a high quality of service. Relatively high barrier to entry on the content side.
    Balkanized hybrid: walled gardens and pay walls plus low-bandwidth, lower-value everything else; providers and users pay for higher QoS.
  • Network Neutrality
    “Network neutrality (also net neutrality, Internet neutrality) is a buzzword used to describe a principle proposed for users' access to networks participating in the Internet. The principle advocates no restrictions by Internet service providers and governments on content, sites, platforms, the kinds of equipment that may be attached, and the modes of communication.”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_neutrality
  • For less than $1,000, he could get his idea onto the Internet. He needed no permission from the network provider. He needed no clearance from Harvard to offer it to Harvard students. Neither with Yale, or Princeton, or Stanford. Nor with every other community he invited in. Because the platform of the Internet is open and free, or in the language of the day, because it is a “neutral network,” a billion Mark Zuckerbergs have the opportunity to invent for the platform. And though there are crucial partners who are essential to bring the product to market, the cost of proving viability on this platform has dropped dramatically. You don’t even have to possess Zuckerberg’s technical genius to develop your own idea for the Internet today. Websites across the developing world deliver high quality coding to complement the very best ideas from anywhere. This is a platform that has made democratic innovation possible—and it was on the Facebook platform resting on that Internet platform that another Facebook co-founder, Chris Hughes, organized the most important digital movement for Obama, and that the film’s petty villain, Sean Parker, organized Causes, one of the most important tools to support nonprofit social missions.
    ~ Larry Lessig
  • How should we experience the Internet? Should our Interface with the world and its data be owned and controlled by corporations? Or operated as public utilities? Or distributed?
    What does it mean for a private, for-profit Facebook or Google to “own” a network effect, personal data for whole populations, core interface and infrastructure?
  • Freedom Box: a “privacy appliance” proposed by attorney and free software proponent EbenMoglen. A personal server running a free software operating system, with free applications designed to create and preserve personal privacy.
  • Questions
    Identity: who has a right to your data? How do you manage the manifestation and use of your identity online?
    Power: who has authority for a relationship? Example: vendor/customer – who has a right to the data, to manage the relationship?
    Abundance: how do you manage information and sustain an accurate world perspective with literally millions of potential information channels?
  • Applications
    Many distributed sites, platforms, and applications, open architectures, data portability
    Mobile and targeted applications
    Recasting the stockpile of information in usable form (Doug Imbruce in Newsweek, “The Wild, Wild Web”) – Qwiki / Curated information experience: machines filter and present content
    Facebook/Twitter and Google rule: people filter, find, and present content (with help from search tools)
  • Scenarios: TechnoUtopian?
    DIY home, media environment, life
    Empowered patient
    Empowered citizen
    Sustainable communities
    Networked transportation
    Noosphere (global consciousness)
    Singularity/Superintelligence
  • Scenarios: Dystopian?
    Cognitive automation vs jobs for humans
    Outsourcing – moving jobs
    Disruptive effects, rapid changes to dynamically stable systems
    Winner-take-all business models
    Efficiency-borne reductions in redundancy and competition
    Information availability causing loss of individual freedom
    Network exclusion or “digital divide”
  • Jon Lebkowsky
    http://weblogsky.com
    jonl@polycot.com