Sa08 Prop Depot Panel Rand Simberg

Business Considerations For Propellant Depots Rand Simberg WYSIS Space Access 2008 March 28, 2008

Depots Open Up Cis-Lunar Space
Contra Mike, ESAS Is Not The Interstate Highway System
True Equivalent Of IHS Would Have Gas Stations
Even More Important For Space Vehicles Than Ground Transportation, Due To Rocket Equation And Exponential Nature Of Propellant Requirements As Function Of Distance (Velocity)

Depots As Fuel “Caches”
Think Of Depots As A Form Of Staging
Analogies
Pre-placed Caches For Antarctic Exploration
Hanging Scuba Tanks For Intermediate Safety Stops
Depots Extend Reach/Increase Payload If :
Propellant Can Be Delivered More Cheaply Than Time-Critical Cargoes And Personnel
Ex: Low-Thrust Tankers Or Cycling Depots

Infrastructure Should Be Robust
Propellant Depot Architecture Renders Depots Essential For Continuing Operations
Cannot Have Single-Point Failure
Solution: Redundancy
Depots
Depot Designs
Propellant Providers

Redundancy/Competition Unaffordable Without High Volume Of Operations
Cost Amortization
Multiple Depot Types Involve Multiple Developments
Multiple Depots Multiply Production Costs
Multiple Providers Need Enough Market To Support Them All
Don’t Want To Show Up At The Depot With No Capacity To Offload
Demand Has To Support Supply (Oil Tanker Analogy)
Have To Find Sufficient Customers And Build Markets

LEO Depot Location Considerations
LEO
28.5
Equatorial
Plane Change Penalty To GEO Constant For Any Inclination
Maximizing Lunar Departure/Return Opportunities Requires Multiple LEO Depots For Non-Equatorial Orbits
Another Driver For Redundancy

Other Depot Locations For Complete Cis-Lunar Infrastructure
Lagrange Points (Propellants From Lunar Surface Or LEO…Or Other)
L1 (Shorter Trip Times)
L2 (Lower Delta V)
Lunar Surface—Various Locations (Propellants Locally Produced Or Delivered From Lagrange Points)
Opportunities Between Lunar Surface And Lagrange Points Continuous

Hybrid Location
Consider Tankers Cycling Between LEO and Lagrange Points
Dual Function:
Propellant Storage (And Perhaps Processing)
Propellant Transfer, Both Ways
Possibly Nuclear Powered
At Least Four:
One At LEO
One At Lagrange Point
One In Transit From L? To LEO
One In Transit From LEO To L?
Propellant Source Function Of Relative Cost
If Lunar (Or Asteroidal) Propellants Can Be Delivered To LEO Cheaply, No More Need For Earth Supply

Three Business Models
NASA Cost-Plus Contract
Public Utility (Comsat Model)
Private Model (Existing Comsat Industry)

NASA Cost-Plus Contract
Overspecify Initial System
Cost Estimate Results In Single One
Requirements Creep To Justify High Cost
Congressional Interference
Overruns, Slipped Schedule
Program Completion Just Prior To Obsolescence
In Other Words, Business As Usual

Public Utility (Comsat Model)
Develop Specification
Establish Quasi-Governmental Corporation
Build/Operate Depots
Provide Services

Private Model (Comsat Industry)
Establish Basic Interface Standards (NIST? AIAA?)
Get Anchor Tenant Contracts From NASA (And Others?)
Contractors Design/Build Depots In Various Locations
Operators Provide Propellant Storage/Transfer Services A La Gas Stations
System Expands To Meet Demand Either Via Additional Depots Or Depot Growth

Comsat Industry Model?
Perhaps All Three Models Will Be Utilized, Time Phased:
NASA Develops Basic Technology
Establishment Of Quasi-Government Corporation
Transition To Private Industry
Eventual Result: Robust Space Transportation Infrastructure To Dramatically Decrease In-Space Costs

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Sa08 Prop Depot Panel Rand Simberg

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Sa08 Prop Depot Panel Rand Simberg — Presentation Transcript