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Reforming Pakistan’s National Accounts: A Proposed 2002 Program
 

Reforming Pakistan’s National Accounts: A Proposed 2002 Program

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A baseline projection and reform agenda designed to be implemented by the Government of Pakistan and the IMF in 2002.

A baseline projection and reform agenda designed to be implemented by the Government of Pakistan and the IMF in 2002.

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  • Foreign Reserves 1.6 months of imports  1.1Interest payments due for the whole economy: -2.8 -3.1
  • FDI=-40% in 2001 and projected for 2002NFA: due to depreciation NFA with private banking sector goes up, Assumption less development aidRevenue lower because not increased in line with GDP growth.GDP up: Reason: The service sector has taken a bigger role relative to agriculture and industry sectors, hence indicating a maturation of the economy. The exports sector has also increased in importance as a contributor to GDP growth, with net exports turning from negative in fy97 to positive in fy01. At the same time, the main cause of domestic demand growth has been the increase in private consumption (while public consumption remained stable). * Current account deficit: deteriotes because of drought and increase of imports, higher interest payments, Capital account deficit because structural high amount paid of Amortization (more money flows out of the country than enters)Net credit to government increases: IMF program end so more subsidies
  • tax admin measures droppedNFA: due to depreciation NFA with private banking sector goes up, Assumption less development aidRevenue lower because not increased in line with GDP growth.GDP up: Reason: The service sector has taken a bigger role relative to agriculture and industry sectors, hence indicating a maturation of the economy. The exports sector has also increased in importance as a contributor to GDP growth, with net exports turning from negative in fy97 to positive in fy01. At the same time, the main cause of domestic demand growth has been the increase in private consumption (while public consumption remained stable). * Current account deficit: deteriotes because of drought and increase of imports, higher interest payments, Capital account deficit because structural high amount paid of Amortization (more money flows out of the country than enters)Net credit to government increases: IMF program end so more subsidies

Reforming Pakistan’s National Accounts: A Proposed 2002 Program Reforming Pakistan’s National Accounts: A Proposed 2002 Program Presentation Transcript

  • Reforming Pakistan’s National Accounts
    A Proposed 2002 Program
    Sim Siew Ee, Jonathon Flegg, He Yishan Germaine, Sarah Hauser, MiekeKlanker,
    Lena Lim, Bastiaan van de Loo, Duong Ngoc Quyen
  • Presentation Outline
  • 2001 Macroeconomic Conditions
  • 2001 Macroeconomic Conditions
  • Main Economic Indicators
  • Main Economic Indicators
  • Key Economic Trends (Domestic)
  • Key Economic Trends (External)
  • Key Economic Data (Debt)
  • Key Economic Data (Investment)
  • Forecasting Assumptions for Baseline Scenario
  • External and Internal Conditions
  • Weak Economic Conditions in Baseline
  • Weak Economic Conditions in Baseline
  • Strong Economic Aspects of Baseline
  • Getting Project Reform Horsepower
    Fiscal Austerity | Structural Reforms | Monetary Policy | Debt Relief
  • Goals of Financial Programme
  • Stabilization & Macroeconomic Policy
  • Raising Revenue and Reallocating Expenditure
  • Potential Uncertainties with the Program
  • Structural Policies
  • Summary Results
  • Summary Results
  • Summary Results
  • Conclusions
  • Questions and Comments
  • Vertical and Horizontal Consistency Check (FY01)
  • Vertical and Horizontal Consistency Check (FY01)
  • Vertical and Horizontal Consistency Check (FY02)
  • Vertical and Horizontal Consistency Check (FY02)