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The Revolution Will Not Be Televised

by jonathanstark on Sep 24, 2012

32,548 views

Mobile computing as we know it today is just one application of wireless technology, and a fairly limited one at that. The iPhone - perhaps the most advanced piece of consumer electronics ever created ...

Mobile computing as we know it today is just one application of wireless technology, and a fairly limited one at that. The iPhone - perhaps the most advanced piece of consumer electronics ever created - is going to look like a fax machine compared to what's coming. Mobile is a warning shot - the coming wireless wave will profoundly change every aspect of society and potentially redefine what it means to be human. Please join Jonathan for a look at the past, present, and future - and what we can do to prepare for the revolution.

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jonathanstark FYI - Most slides have descriptive notes. 7 months ago
Are you sure you want to

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The iPhone so thoroughly transformed our world that it’s almost hard to remember what life was like pre-iPhone.\n
In the 70’s, computers were not the kind of thing you had room for in your house. \n
In the early 80’s, personal computers started to appear in homes but they were strictly for geeks.\n
In the early 80’s, personal computers started to appear in homes but they were strictly for geeks.\n
In the mid-1980’s the first mass-market personal computer was announced. It featured a graphical user interface with point-and-click navigation which made it accessible to non-geeks. This basic design of a desktop computer remained fundamentally the same for 30 years. \n
This basic design evolved a lot cosmetically but it was more cosmetic than fundamental. \n
We got faster processors, more storage space, and bigger screens. Prices remained fairly stable. \n\n(Incidentally, I find it interesting that virtually all Mac desktop computers had handles.)\n
The Web - which had been somewhat under the radar - suddenly exploded in popularity as graphical browsers became freely available. \n
Lots of people had the internet at work and they craved it at home. What was once a network of government and educational computers began to sprout new tendrils that reached into our houses. These roots were fragile at first but quickly became robust.\n
Portables started to gain in popularity. WiFi “hot spots” started popping up like mushrooms. Started to hear terms like “mobile workforce” and “telecommuting” and we became even more heavily dependent on email than we already were. \n
RIM capitalized on this email dependency with a series of Blackberry phones that gave us access to our inboxes from anywhere. People became so addicted to these phones that we started calling them “crackberrys”.\n\nhttp://zagg-blog.s3.amazonaws.com/community/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Blackberry1024x768.jpg\n\n
In spite of their popularity, Blackberrys were not anyone’s primary computing device. They were good at email, BBM messaging, and phone calls but the system UI, the apps, and the web browsing sucked compared to our desktop machines. \n\nhttp://www-bgr-com.vimg.net/wp-content/uploads/Image/BlackBerry%208800%20Internet/CIMG0434.jpg\n
So that was the state of things on January 9, 2007 - the day that Steve Jobs threw the silverback iPhone into the mobile market like a meteor into the Gulf of Mexico. \n\nLet’s take a couple minutes to re-live that announcement. Take special note of the crowd gasping at things that we now take for granted, and how little has changed in five years. \n
[VIDEO] Apple reinvents the phone. \n
\n
We all know what happened next. This is a graph of iPhone sales since 2007. Apple overshot their initial goal of 1% marketshare by about 40 percentage points. \n
The iPhone infiltrated every aspect of our daily lives. On a good day, sometimes twice. \n\n;)\n\nhttp://cdn.thenextweb.com/files/2009/11/1868-tee_large.png\n
But all the excitement about pinching photos, scrolling artists, and merging calls doesn’t tell the whole story. \n\nQ: What’s radical about this picture? \nA: Computing while standing up and/or with one hand.\n
In the entire history of computing up to 2007, we did our computing sitting down with two hands free. \n\nhttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vtbhNoVDDIY/TjifVW79jKI/AAAAAAAAB3Y/vOwu2Zd4C-8/s1600/work_station_sitting.jpg\n
Once the iPhone hit the scene, we stood up and started grabbing stuff.\n\nhttp://nepaleverestnews.com/eng/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/mom-with-smartphone.jpg\n
Hooray! At last, we can finally compute from anywhere... Right?\n\nhttp://www.thestandingroom.com/blog/images/hooray.jpg\n
\n
As awesome as the iPhone is, it has significant limitations.\n
http://my605.com/raisingdakota/wp-content/uploads//2011/02/JackDishes.jpg\n
http://happyturfblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/raking_leaves_photo_for_website.jpg\n
http://www.woombie.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/baby-diaper-change.jpg\n
http://www.foundshit.com/downhill-escalator-skiing/\n
http://www.myscubastory.com/communities/2/004/008/540/462/images/4543280695.jpg\n
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2012/08/in_flight_1.html\n
You have to look at it to do most things.\n
You need at least one hand free to operate it.\n
I think smartphones in 2012 are at the point desktops were in 2006 - i.e., they’ve matured. The next wave of innovation is going to be focused on the next computing posture: hands-free, eyes-free. \n
I don’t buy the AR contact lens angle, but this a concept video that addresses the use case that I’m imagining.\n\nhttp://vimeo.com/46304267\n
Contact lens based visual AR is sci fi - decades off at best - but it seems that Google are dipping their toes in this area with Google Glass. \n
It occurs to me that you could get 80% of the way to the “Sight” experience today with a simple FBI-style wire. The trouble is that it’s not convenient to have a dude following you around in a van. I think Apple realizes this and is positioning themselves for the innovation beyond the iPhone. \n\n
Was it just me or did it seem weird that Apple spent like ten minutes talking about headphones a their iPhone 5 event? \n\nhttp://cdn0.mos.techradar.futurecdn.net///art/mobile_phones/iPhone/iPhone%205/Event/EarPods-580-75.jpg\n
Just me or does “EarPods” seems like a really weird name for a simple pair of headphones? Maybe not if the headphones become the device. Sure, the next version of EarPods will probably just be the new Shuffle. But what if the version after that had 4G and Siri? And what if Siri totally kicked ass by then?\n\nAn “mic + speakers + connectivity” device would address the hands-free, eyes-free posture. Siri is not great today, but touchscreens were not great before the iPhone. You have to admit, it would be revolutionary if headphones became the new smartphone.\n\n\n
I’m just guessing at the EarPods thing. I don’t know what the tech will be, but I know what it characteristics will have:\n* connected, 4G/WiFi\n* wicked fast, low latency, real time responsiveness\n* super smart, monitoring us constantly\n* won’t have a screen\n\n\n
What can we start doing today that will prepare us for a future device like this? Three things: create smart content, embrace APIs, and start small with client apps. \n
Your content needs to grow up and move out. You need to give it the tools it needs to go out on it’s own and fend for itself. This means scrubbing it of any layout specific instructions (rtf, css, html, etc...) and adding meta data. \n
The app that users install on their devices are not your app. Your app is on your server - it’s called your API. All the other apps - native iOS, mobile web, Android tablet - are all just client apps that talk to your one true app via it’s API. \n
Focusing on the most resource starved platform first forces the difficult decisions that can be avoided in more powerful contexts. For example, it’s fairly straight forward to scale a phone site up to a desktop site. The reverse is nearly impossible. \n
That these three techniques are the way forward is great news because - even if I’m wrong about about a popular screenless future device - they will serve us well today on the regualr Web. \n
“In our lifetimes we’re going from almost no one being able to communicate to almost everyone being able to communicate. We’re also going from almost no one having any kind of information and access to libraries to virtually everyone having access to every piece of information in the world. That is an enormous accomplishment for humanity.” - Eric Schmidt, \n\nhttp://jonathanstark.com/blog/2010/03/01/eric-schmitt-on-the-mobile-web/\nhttp://jonathanstark.com/blog/2012/03/01/eric-schmidt-keynote-at-mwc-2012/\n
“In our lifetimes we’re going from almost no one being able to communicate to almost everyone being able to communicate. We’re also going from almost no one having any kind of information and access to libraries to virtually everyone having access to every piece of information in the world. That is an enormous accomplishment for humanity.” - Eric Schmidt, \n\nhttp://jonathanstark.com/blog/2010/03/01/eric-schmitt-on-the-mobile-web/\nhttp://jonathanstark.com/blog/2012/03/01/eric-schmidt-keynote-at-mwc-2012/\n
“In our lifetimes we’re going from almost no one being able to communicate to almost everyone being able to communicate. We’re also going from almost no one having any kind of information and access to libraries to virtually everyone having access to every piece of information in the world. That is an enormous accomplishment for humanity.” - Eric Schmidt, \n\nhttp://jonathanstark.com/blog/2010/03/01/eric-schmitt-on-the-mobile-web/\nhttp://jonathanstark.com/blog/2012/03/01/eric-schmidt-keynote-at-mwc-2012/\n
\n

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The Revolution Will Not Be Televised Presentation Transcript

THE REVOLUTIONWILL NOT BE TELEVISEDmanaging content and experiencein the age of ubiquitous computing
past
present
future
1. REQUIRES EYES
2. REQUIRES A HAND
?
todos
1. SMART CONTENT
2. EMBRACE APIS
3. START SMALL
ACCESSIBILITY #FTW!
“We’re going from almost no one having anykind of information and access to libraries to virtually everyone having access to every piece of information in the world. That is an enormous accomplishment for humanity.” - Eric Schmidt
“We’re going from almost no one having anykind of information and access to libraries to virtually everyone having access to every piece of information in the world. That is an enormous accomplishment for humanity.” - Eric Schmidt
@jonathanstark