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AAII Bearish Sentiment Index As Of 09232009
AAII Bearish Sentiment Index As Of 09232009
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AAII Bearish Sentiment Index As Of 09232009

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AAII Bearish sentiment index as of 9/23/2009 overlaid with JSCO Investor pain index (weekly S&P500 data).

AAII Bearish sentiment index as of 9/23/2009 overlaid with JSCO Investor pain index (weekly S&P500 data).

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  • 1. 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 BearishSentimentandJSCOPainIndex -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% S&P6mo.fwsperformance AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish level Normal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk Avg S&P 6 months forward performance Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 yearsIn 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the black dots), share prices rose higher.
  • 2. 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Jul-87 Jul-88 Jul-89 Jul-90 Jul-91 Jul-92 Jul-93 Jul-94 Jul-95 Jul-96 Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 BearishSentimentandJSCOPainIndex -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% S&P6mo.fwsperformance AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish level Normal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk Avg S&P 6 months forward performance

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