William H. Frey The Brookings Institution &  The University of Michigan www.frey-demographer.org A 30,000-Foot View  of th...
Projected 50 Years Population Growth
US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050 69.1% 50.1%
US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050 12.4% 20.7%
New Demographic Regions <ul><li>Melting Pot  America </li></ul><ul><li>The New Sunbelt </li></ul><ul><li>The Heartland </l...
Melting Pot, New Sunbelt  and  Heartland States New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States
Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States Foreign Born    70% Asian Language at Home    68% Spanish at Home    76% Mixed Marriag...
Demographic Components, 2000-2007 (Rates per 1000)
Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-07 241,661 Washington DC 8 246,877 San Francisco 7 263,309 Houston 6 289,312 Dallas 5 379,55...
Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-07 185,647 Charlotte, NC 8 220,579 Dallas 7 226,649 Orlando 6 254,739 Tampa 5 287,192 Las...
Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-07 -224,992 San Jose 8 -260,176 Boston 7 -263,322 Detroit 6 -323.869 New Orleans 5 -...
Race Composition of Regions  2007 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
Melting Pot States:  Race Change 1990-2007
New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990-2007
California: All Races Out-Migrate
Growing &quot;New Immigrant&quot; Destinations 1990-2005
Immigrant Concentrations in States 1990 2005 15% or more 10-14% 5-9% Less than 5%
Immigrants vs  Natives
Hispanic Concentrations Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates Percent of County Population
Greatest Hispanic Gains, 2000-07 351,410 Chicago 8 389,168 Miami 7 417,329 New York 6 441,745 Phoenix 5 508,448 Houston 4 ...
Fastest Hispanic Growth, 2000-07 Metros with at least 50,000 Hispanics 85.9 Indianapolis 8 92.1 Nashville 7 92,4 Lakeland,...
Asian Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
Greatest Asian Gains, 2000-07 84,407 Riverside 8 85,179 Dallas 7 95,919 Chicago 6 98,446 San Jose 5 108,736 San Francisco ...
Fastest Asian Growth, 2000-07 Metros with at least 50,000 Asians 45.2 Columbus OH 8 50.9 Tampa 7 53.0 Atlanta 6 55.6 Orlan...
Black Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
Greatest Black Gains, 2000-07 61,509 Baltimore 8 69,913 Orlando 7 84,681 Charlotte 6 100,197 Washington DC 5 105,093 Miami...
White Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
2000-07 Greatest White Decliners -76,663 Philadelphia 8 -82,347 San Jose 7 -95,713 Pittsburgh 6 -127,120 New Orleans 5 -13...
2000-07 Greatest White Gainers 116,444 Las Vegas 8 126,761 Raleigh 7 130,488 Houston 6 134,483 Charlotte 5 138,701 Austin ...
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Born in Same State Source: William H. Frey analysis
US Growth by Age 2000-10
Growth by Age, 2000-10
State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-2010 Under age 18 Growth 5% and over Growth under 5% Decline under 5% Decline 5% a...
Growth in H.S. Graduates, 2002-3 to 2009-10  GT 15% 7 – 15% 0 – 7 % Decline
Percent Non White Children*, 2015 * Under age 15 GT 50% 40% - 50% 30% - 40% 20% - 40% Under 20%
Percent Children with Immigrant Parents - 2006 51% 35% 35% 34% 32% 31% 31% 23%
Children Speaking Other than English*, 2005 Source: William H. Frey analysis * Ages 5 - 17 GT 20% 10% - 20% 6% - 10% Under...
Percent Speaking Spanish,  Children and Adults, 2005
English Proficiency for Spanish Speakers, 2005
Hispanic, Asian Children by Generation, 2006 Hispanics Asians
Young Adult Education 2006 , 2 Generations Hispanics Asians
US Growth by Age 2000-10
Age 65 + Growth, 2000-10, US States 25% & above 20% -24% 10% -19% under 10%
Percent 65+ population for States, 2005 13.4% & above 12% -13% 11% -11.9% under 12%
Greatest 65+ Growth: Large Metros 51.6 Atlanta 8 51.3 Orlando 9 50.5 Houston 10 52.9 El Paso 7 54.3 Phoenix 6 57.4 Raleigh...
Greatest 65+ Decline: Large Metros 0.8 Youngstown-OH 8 1.1 Toledo 9 2.5 Cleveland 10 0.1 Providence 7 -0.5 New Haven 6 -0....
Fastest Growing “Old-Old” (85+), 2000-10 <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>  %   Growth   </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>1. Alaska  11...
Projected Age 65+ Growth  2000-30, US States   140% & above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69%
Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40 Florida California New York percent growth
Rates of Migration by Age Per 100
Arizona Projections:  Aging in Place and Migration percent growth
New York Projections:  Aging in Place and Migration Source: William H. Frey analysis percent growth
Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife
Race for Age Groups: US
Race for Age Groups:  California
Race for Age Groups: Minnesota
United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age 18 52 % white black Indian Asian Hispanic 62 % Age 18 -64 76 % A...
State Projected Growth, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
Electoral Vote Gains, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
Electoral Vote Losses, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
Red and Blue States, 2004 Source: William Frey
Projected Red State Advantage (assuming constant 2004 state victories) Source: William Frey
Red and Blue States, 2008
Projected Blue State Advantage (assuming constant 2008 state victories) Red  Blue Advantage 2008 174 364 190 2012 178 360 ...
Useful Websites www.brookings.edu/metro   www.frey-demographer.org
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A 30,000-Foot View of the Demographic Landscape

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Presented by William H. Frey

The Brookings Institution &
The University of Michigan

www.frey-demographer.org

Compliments of the The Knight Digital Media Center
http://www.knightdigitalmediacenter.org

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A 30,000-Foot View of the Demographic Landscape

  1. 1. William H. Frey The Brookings Institution & The University of Michigan www.frey-demographer.org A 30,000-Foot View of the Demographic Landscape
  2. 2. Projected 50 Years Population Growth
  3. 3. US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050 69.1% 50.1%
  4. 4. US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050 12.4% 20.7%
  5. 5. New Demographic Regions <ul><li>Melting Pot America </li></ul><ul><li>The New Sunbelt </li></ul><ul><li>The Heartland </li></ul>
  6. 6. Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States
  7. 7. Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States Foreign Born 70% Asian Language at Home 68% Spanish at Home 76% Mixed Marriages 51% Native Born 37% English at Home 34%
  8. 8. Demographic Components, 2000-2007 (Rates per 1000)
  9. 9. Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-07 241,661 Washington DC 8 246,877 San Francisco 7 263,309 Houston 6 289,312 Dallas 5 379,550 Chicago 4 414,189 Miami 3 804,702 Los Angeles 2 1,079,700 New York 1
  10. 10. Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-07 185,647 Charlotte, NC 8 220,579 Dallas 7 226,649 Orlando 6 254,739 Tampa 5 287,192 Las Vegas 4 353,953 Atlanta 3 468,873 Riverside, CA 2 477,871 Phoenix 1
  11. 11. Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-07 -224,992 San Jose 8 -260,176 Boston 7 -263,322 Detroit 6 -323.869 New Orleans 5 -354.534 San Francisco 4 -477,254 Chicago 3 -1,120,854 Los Angeles 2 -1,643,228 New York 1
  12. 12. Race Composition of Regions 2007 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
  13. 13. Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990-2007
  14. 14. New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990-2007
  15. 15. California: All Races Out-Migrate
  16. 16. Growing &quot;New Immigrant&quot; Destinations 1990-2005
  17. 17. Immigrant Concentrations in States 1990 2005 15% or more 10-14% 5-9% Less than 5%
  18. 18. Immigrants vs Natives
  19. 19. Hispanic Concentrations Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates Percent of County Population
  20. 20. Greatest Hispanic Gains, 2000-07 351,410 Chicago 8 389,168 Miami 7 417,329 New York 6 441,745 Phoenix 5 508,448 Houston 4 519,055 Dallas 3 522,060 Los Angeles 2 589,769 Riverside 1
  21. 21. Fastest Hispanic Growth, 2000-07 Metros with at least 50,000 Hispanics 85.9 Indianapolis 8 92.1 Nashville 7 92,4 Lakeland, FL 6 96.2 Raleigh 5 98.8 Fayetteville, AR 4 100.7 Charlotte 3 109.5 Port St. Lucie, FL 2 137.3. Cape Coral, FL 1
  22. 22. Asian Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
  23. 23. Greatest Asian Gains, 2000-07 84,407 Riverside 8 85,179 Dallas 7 95,919 Chicago 6 98,446 San Jose 5 108,736 San Francisco 4 110,148 Washington DC 3 204,641 Los Angeles 2 315,022 New York 1
  24. 24. Fastest Asian Growth, 2000-07 Metros with at least 50,000 Asians 45.2 Columbus OH 8 50.9 Tampa 7 53.0 Atlanta 6 55.6 Orlando 5 56.1 Austin 4 57.4 Riverside 3 65.3 Phoenix 2 71.5 Las Vegas 1
  25. 25. Black Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
  26. 26. Greatest Black Gains, 2000-07 61,509 Baltimore 8 69,913 Orlando 7 84,681 Charlotte 6 100,197 Washington DC 5 105,093 Miami 4 144,887 Dallas 3 150,180 Houston 2 413,199 Atlanta 1
  27. 27. White Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
  28. 28. 2000-07 Greatest White Decliners -76,663 Philadelphia 8 -82,347 San Jose 7 -95,713 Pittsburgh 6 -127,120 New Orleans 5 -130,709 San Francisco 4 -142,696 Miami 3 -229,493 Los Angeles 2 -280,519 New York 1
  29. 29. 2000-07 Greatest White Gainers 116,444 Las Vegas 8 126,761 Raleigh 7 130,488 Houston 6 134,483 Charlotte 5 138,701 Austin 4 172,284 Dallas 3 262,890 Atlanta 2 322,104 Phoenix 1
  30. 30. Source: William H. Frey analysis
  31. 31. Born in Same State Source: William H. Frey analysis
  32. 32. US Growth by Age 2000-10
  33. 33. Growth by Age, 2000-10
  34. 34. State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-2010 Under age 18 Growth 5% and over Growth under 5% Decline under 5% Decline 5% and over
  35. 35. Growth in H.S. Graduates, 2002-3 to 2009-10 GT 15% 7 – 15% 0 – 7 % Decline
  36. 36. Percent Non White Children*, 2015 * Under age 15 GT 50% 40% - 50% 30% - 40% 20% - 40% Under 20%
  37. 37. Percent Children with Immigrant Parents - 2006 51% 35% 35% 34% 32% 31% 31% 23%
  38. 38. Children Speaking Other than English*, 2005 Source: William H. Frey analysis * Ages 5 - 17 GT 20% 10% - 20% 6% - 10% Under 6%
  39. 39. Percent Speaking Spanish, Children and Adults, 2005
  40. 40. English Proficiency for Spanish Speakers, 2005
  41. 41. Hispanic, Asian Children by Generation, 2006 Hispanics Asians
  42. 42. Young Adult Education 2006 , 2 Generations Hispanics Asians
  43. 43. US Growth by Age 2000-10
  44. 44. Age 65 + Growth, 2000-10, US States 25% & above 20% -24% 10% -19% under 10%
  45. 45. Percent 65+ population for States, 2005 13.4% & above 12% -13% 11% -11.9% under 12%
  46. 46. Greatest 65+ Growth: Large Metros 51.6 Atlanta 8 51.3 Orlando 9 50.5 Houston 10 52.9 El Paso 7 54.3 Phoenix 6 57.4 Raleigh 5 62.0 Austin 4 62.4 Colorado Springs 3 63.3 McAllen, TX 2 131.4 Las Vegas 1
  47. 47. Greatest 65+ Decline: Large Metros 0.8 Youngstown-OH 8 1.1 Toledo 9 2.5 Cleveland 10 0.1 Providence 7 -0.5 New Haven 6 -0.6 Worcester, MA 5 -1.5 Buffalo 4 -2.1 Springfield, MA 3 -2.7 Pittsburgh 2 -10.8 Scranton 1
  48. 48. Fastest Growing “Old-Old” (85+), 2000-10 <ul><ul><ul><ul><li> % Growth </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>1. Alaska 116.0 </li></ul><ul><li>2. Nevada 96.9 </li></ul><ul><li>3. Arizona 76.4 </li></ul><ul><li>4. New Mexico 64.4 </li></ul><ul><li>5. Florida 62.4 </li></ul><ul><li>6. California 57.8 </li></ul><ul><li>7. Delaware 57.7 </li></ul><ul><li>8. Hawaii 57.4 </li></ul><ul><li>9. Maryland 57.1 </li></ul>
  49. 49. Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30, US States 140% & above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69%
  50. 50. Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40 Florida California New York percent growth
  51. 51. Rates of Migration by Age Per 100
  52. 52. Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migration percent growth
  53. 53. New York Projections: Aging in Place and Migration Source: William H. Frey analysis percent growth
  54. 54. Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife
  55. 55. Race for Age Groups: US
  56. 56. Race for Age Groups: California
  57. 57. Race for Age Groups: Minnesota
  58. 58. United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age 18 52 % white black Indian Asian Hispanic 62 % Age 18 -64 76 % Age 65+
  59. 59. State Projected Growth, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
  60. 60. Electoral Vote Gains, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
  61. 61. Electoral Vote Losses, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
  62. 62. Red and Blue States, 2004 Source: William Frey
  63. 63. Projected Red State Advantage (assuming constant 2004 state victories) Source: William Frey
  64. 64. Red and Blue States, 2008
  65. 65. Projected Blue State Advantage (assuming constant 2008 state victories) Red Blue Advantage 2008 174 364 190 2012 178 360 182 2024 179 359 180 2032 183 355 172 Electoral Votes
  66. 66. Useful Websites www.brookings.edu/metro www.frey-demographer.org
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