Urban Foresight As A Tool For Territorial Governance<br />“Whither Strategic Foresight?”<br />Professor John S Ratcliffe<b...
Is this humanity’s last century – or a century that sets the world on a course towards a spectacular new future?<br />A NE...
The Harbingers of Change<br />A Confluence of Powerful Trends<br />Problems Seem Intractable<br />The Demographics of Disc...
“Icarus” – Prevailing Pessimism<br />Population Growth<br />Climate Change<br />Food and Water<br />Safety and Security<br...
“The Phoenix” – Rational Optimism<br />Urban Prospect<br />Developing Technology<br />A New Economy<br />The Natural Step<...
The Need for Vision<br />“A vision without a task is but a dream<br />  A task without a vision is drudgery<br />  A visio...
Present Problems<br />Change, Complexity and Risk / Uncertainty<br />Lack of an Integrated Approach<br />Short-term Orient...
Why Foresight?<br />Running a 21st century city region more complex<br />Need to understand driving forces of change<br />...
What Is Foresight?<br />Strategic foresight (SF) is having a view of what can be done by organisations and societies today...
Foresight Teams Contribution<br />Anticipating emerging issues<br />Identifying unintended consequences<br />Getting a sen...
STAGE<br />OBJECTIVES<br />OUTPUT<br />Framing<br />Scoping the project : attitude, audience, work environment, rationale ...
High to Low Importance<br />Set the Strategic Question<br />Identify the Driving Forces of Change<br />Divergence<br />Det...
The Strategic Foresight Process<br />Framing the Strategic Question(s)<br />Scanning the Horizon<br />Forecasting Alternat...
Framing The Strategic Question<br />Adjust Attitudes<br />Recognise the Character of Change<br />Understand the Rationale ...
Scanning The Horizon<br />Map the System<br />Conduct a Stakeholder Analysis<br />Start by Looking Backwards<br />Explore ...
Forecasting Alternative Futures<br />Identify Drivers, Trends, Issues<br />Look for Turning Points<br />Generate Divergent...
Visioning A Preferred Future<br />Identify Implications/Unintended Consequences<br />Think of the Longer-Term<br />Challen...
Planning Strategic Options<br />Think Strategically to Provoke Strategic Conversations<br />Spot Areas of Strategic Choice...
Acting On An Agreed Agenda<br />Communicate Results Effectively<br />Create an Action Plan with a Sense of Urgency<br />Id...
What Are The Prospects?“Can we go on like this?”<br />Meta-forces<br />Macro-forces<br />Micro-forces<br />“Reason is, and...
However, the history of modern societies suggest also something for our future….<br />Figure 1: Kondratieff cycles – long ...
Three Meta-forces<br />VALUES<br />VISIONS<br />VECTORS<br />“Unless the investment in children is made, all of humanity's...
Values<br />	The Transformation Towards<br />	A Sustainable Responsible Civilization<br />“All that is necessary for the t...
DOWN<br />UP<br />Ecological footprint<br />Improving people’s health and well-being while respecting the limits of natura...
The Great Global Values Debate<br />Millennium Development Goals<br />Cultures Consequences<br />Spiral Dynamics<br />Worl...
Cultural Values Map<br />“What we call basic truths are simply the ones we discover after all the others” 	(Albert Camus)<...
Visions<br />“Twenty-first Century Enlightenment”<br />Self-Aware Autonomy<br />Empathetic Universalism<br />Progress and ...
To a sustainable world in 2050<br />From business-as-usual<br />
To a sustainable world in 2050<br />TODAY<br />From business-as-usual<br />
To a sustainable world in 2050<br />2050<br />From business-as-usual<br />
Vectors<br />“An agent that acts as a carrier or transporter”<br />Globalisation<br />Urbanisation<br />Environmentalism <...
proGective -- Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT©<br />
Risks Interconnection Map 2011<br />
Imagineering the Built Environment<br />STRATEGIC FORESIGHT 2030“Just Imagine!”<br />Professor John S Ratcliffe<br />July ...
Exordium<br />A Changing World<br />The New, The Many, The Connected<br />A “Grand Transformation”<br />‘Metanoia’ – And t...
Brainstorm<br />Set the Strategic Question<br />Consider the Crucibles of Change<br />Divergence<br />Horizon Scanning<br ...
Emergence<br />“Jazz”<br />“Lords of Misrule”<br />Divergence<br />Fostering Foresight<br /> <br />Convergence<br />Societ...
Stage One: Divergence<br />Divergence<br /> <br />Society & Culture<br /> <br />Technology & Innovation<br /> <br />Econom...
The Five Crucibles Of Change<br />Financial Markets and a New Economics<br />Global Governance and Social Disparity<br />P...
1. Financial Markets And A New Economics<br />Age of sustainable living in a resource constrained world<br />The “Depletio...
2. Global Governance And Social Disparity<br />Widening gap between rich and poor<br />Capacity and quality of infrastruct...
3. Planetary Stewardship In An Age Of Scarcity<br />Onset of climate change towards global warming<br />Process of urbanis...
4. Creative Cities With Connected Communities<br />Quality of life<br />Competitiveness through creativity<br />Shared vis...
5. Productivity, Partnership And People<br />Boosting productivity and promoting innovation<br />Role of the state and mar...
Built Environment: Exploring the Driving Forces of Change<br />Society and Culture<br />Technology and Innovation<br />Eco...
Society and Culture<br />Cross disciplinarity, networks and systems<br />Global youth and young talent<br />Migration, div...
Technology and Innovation<br />Convergence, change and connectivity<br />Automation and augmentation<br />Prefabrication, ...
Economics and Finance<br />Property as a physical and functional asset<br />Attractiveness of second- and third-tier citie...
Environment and Ethics<br />Social worth and social responsibility<br />Urbanisation challenge to planners and developers<...
Politics and Governance<br />Transparency and accountability<br />Internationalisation and partnership<br />Property as a ...
Stage Two: Emergence<br />Emergence<br />“Jazz”<br />“Lords of Misrule”<br /> <br />“Wise Counsels”<br />Alternative Futur...
Dimensions of Uncertainty<br />Global<br />Sustainability<br />Governance<br />Connectivity<br />Responsibility<br />Leade...
Scenarios<br />“Jazz”<br />Multi-polarity with dynamic reciprocity<br />“Lords of Misrule”<br />Muddling along from declin...
More<br />Sustainable<br />Resilient<br />Wise Counsels<br />Resilience of Global Ecosystem<br />Jazz<br />Lords of Misrul...
“Jazz”Multi-Polarity with Dynamic Reciprocity<br />Global village of 2030 – mutual give and take<br />World of cultural ch...
“Lords of Misrule”Muddling Along From Decline to Disaster<br />Familiar world – but failing<br />Modest economic reforms o...
“Wise Counsels”Transformation And The Rise To Maturity<br />Age of “new powers and new alliances”<br />Radically different...
Convergence<br />Fostering Foresight<br /> <br />Convergence<br />Enlightened Leadership<br />Synergy with Academe<br />Cu...
The Built Environment: A Preferred Future<br />Be authentic, and never neglect the basics<br />Plan and commit for sustain...
Strategic Policy Options<br />Fostering Foresight<br />Enlightened Leadership<br />Core Purpose<br />Synergy with Academe<...
Lessons Learned<br />An evaluation of practice<br /><ul><li>Purpose
Participants
Process
Method
Implementation</li></ul>“I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past” (Thomas Jefferson)<br />
Purpose<br /><ul><li>Foster Client Comprehension
Establish Clear Goals
Connect with Strategic Planning
Resolve whether Learning or Planning
Decide Target Audience
Determine Issues and Topics
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  • The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) is a CEO-led, global association of some 200 companies dealing exclusively with business and sustainable development. – The WBCSD was founded on the eve of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit to involve business in sustainability issues and give it a voice in the forum. The WBCSD was the brainchild of the Swiss industrialist, Stephan Schmidheiny, 29 member companies contributed to a document called Vision 2050The nine elements, or critical areas in which actions need to be taken over the next four decades are values and behaviors, human development, economy, agriculture, forests, energy and power, buildings, mobility and materials. Do more with less; create value; prosper and to advance the human conditionJust 40 years from now, some 30% more people will be living on this planet. Business view – we can sell more stuff! Bad news – shreinking resources and changing climates
  • As part of these Turbulent Teens, we have identified several “must-haves”, things that need to happen to achieve our vision. These must-haves are specific to each element but they all talk about innovation, policies, financing or a deeper understanding of what is going on.
  • We have detailed our vision for 2050 in each of the nine elements with a clear measure of success for each of them. For example, for the energy and power element, our vision is that a secure and low carbon energy is widely available and used efficiently. Here, the measure of success is that CO2 emissions will have been halved.
  • "Whither Strategic Foresight?"

    1. 1. Urban Foresight As A Tool For Territorial Governance<br />“Whither Strategic Foresight?”<br />Professor John S Ratcliffe<br />Brussels<br />September 2011<br />
    2. 2. Is this humanity’s last century – or a century that sets the world on a course towards a spectacular new future?<br />A NEW MINDSET<br />“The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)<br />
    3. 3. The Harbingers of Change<br />A Confluence of Powerful Trends<br />Problems Seem Intractable<br />The Demographics of Discord<br />The ‘New Players’<br />Problems are Structural<br />“Flight For The 21st Century: ‘Icarus’ Or ‘The Phoenix’ ”<br />“The unusual and the unknown make us either over confident or overly fearful” (Gaius Julius Caesar)<br />
    4. 4. “Icarus” – Prevailing Pessimism<br />Population Growth<br />Climate Change<br />Food and Water<br />Safety and Security<br />Energy Deficit<br />“If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.” (Irwin Corey)<br />
    5. 5. “The Phoenix” – Rational Optimism<br />Urban Prospect<br />Developing Technology<br />A New Economy<br />The Natural Step<br />New Nuclear<br />“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” (Winston Churchill)<br />
    6. 6. The Need for Vision<br />“A vision without a task is but a dream<br /> A task without a vision is drudgery<br /> A vision with a task is the hope of the world”<br />(Inscription in a church, Sussex, England, 1730)<br />“No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it. We must learn to see the world anew” (Albert Einstein)<br />
    7. 7. Present Problems<br />Change, Complexity and Risk / Uncertainty<br />Lack of an Integrated Approach<br />Short-term Orientation<br />Obsolescence of ‘Predict and Provide’ Model<br />Limited Collaboration of Stakeholders<br />“It’s not the strong that survive – but the most adaptable” (Charles Darwin)<br />
    8. 8. Why Foresight?<br />Running a 21st century city region more complex<br />Need to understand driving forces of change<br />Trends matter – weak signals count<br />Anticipation and exploration prerequisite<br />Rehearsing alternative futures<br />“The Empires of the future are the Empires of the mind” (Winston Churchill)<br />
    9. 9. What Is Foresight?<br />Strategic foresight (SF) is having a view of what can be done by organisations and societies today to positively influence the future.<br />SF is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in civic and organisationally useful ways.<br />SF is thinking about, debating and shaping the future.<br />“Have deep roots, a strong trunk, live long by looking long.” (Lao Tzu)<br />
    10. 10. Foresight Teams Contribution<br />Anticipating emerging issues<br />Identifying unintended consequences<br />Getting a sense of the big picture<br />Drawing on a wide range of information sources<br />Involving all concerned<br />“Business today consists of persuading crowds”<br />
    11. 11. STAGE<br />OBJECTIVES<br />OUTPUT<br />Framing<br />Scoping the project : attitude, audience, work environment, rationale and purpose, objectives and teams.<br />Focal Issue<br />Scanning<br />Collecting the information : the system, history and context of the issue and how to scan for information regarding the future of issue.<br />Information<br />Forecasting<br />Describing baseline and alternative futures : drivers and uncertainties, tools, diverging and converging approaches, and alternatives.<br />Baseline and<br />Alternative Futures<br />Visioning<br />Choosing a preferred future : implications of the forecast, and envisioning desired outcomes.<br />Preferred Future<br />Planning<br />Organising to achieve the vision : strategy, options and plans.<br />Strategy and Plans<br />Acting<br />Implementing the plan : communicating the results, developing action agenda and institutionalising strategic thinking and intelligence systems.<br />Action<br />Strategic Foresight<br />
    12. 12. High to Low Importance<br />Set the Strategic Question<br />Identify the Driving Forces of Change<br />Divergence<br />Determine the Main Issues and Trends<br />Clarify the Level of Impact and Degree of Uncertainty<br />Establish Scenario Logics<br />Emergence<br />Create Different Scenarios<br />Test Policy Options<br />Identify Turning Points<br />Produce Prospective<br />Convergence<br />Move to Strategic Planning<br />Prospective Through Scenarios<br />Strategic Conversations<br />Causal Layered Analysis<br />Horizon Scanning<br />Delphi Survey<br />Cross-ImpactAnalysis<br />Prospective Workshops<br />Clustering<br />Polarising<br />Ranking<br />VERGE<br />Creative Writing<br />Wind Tunnel Testing<br />Gaming and Simulation<br />
    13. 13.
    14. 14. The Strategic Foresight Process<br />Framing the Strategic Question(s)<br />Scanning the Horizon<br />Forecasting Alternative Futures<br />Visioning A Preferred Future<br />Planning Strategic Options<br />Acting on an Agreed Agenda<br />“Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world” (Arthur Schopenhauer)<br />
    15. 15. Framing The Strategic Question<br />Adjust Attitudes<br />Recognise the Character of Change<br />Understand the Rationale and Purpose<br />Weave ‘Outside and Then’ with ‘Inside and Now’<br />Set Objectives<br />“It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)<br />
    16. 16. Scanning The Horizon<br />Map the System<br />Conduct a Stakeholder Analysis<br />Start by Looking Backwards<br />Explore the Unfamiliar<br />Consult ‘Remarkable People’<br />"Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future." (John F. Kennedy)<br />
    17. 17. Forecasting Alternative Futures<br />Identify Drivers, Trends, Issues<br />Look for Turning Points<br />Generate Divergent Ideas<br />Prioritise Convergent Views<br />Form Alternative Futures<br />“If you can dream it, you can do it” (Walt Disney)<br />
    18. 18. Visioning A Preferred Future<br />Identify Implications/Unintended Consequences<br />Think of the Longer-Term<br />Challenge Assumptions<br />Ask ‘What if ?’ Questions<br />Develop a Strategic Vision and Goals<br />“You can analyse the past and appraise the present, but you have to design the future”<br />
    19. 19. Planning Strategic Options<br />Think Strategically to Provoke Strategic Conversations<br />Spot Areas of Strategic Choice by Identifying Critical Branching Points<br />Base Strategic Recommendations On Organisations Distinctive Attributes<br />Evaluate Proposed Strategy Along Multiple Dimensions<br />Have Contingency Plans for Unexpected Surprises<br />“The future is the only kind of property that the masters willingly concede to slaves” (Albert Camus)<br />
    20. 20. Acting On An Agreed Agenda<br />Communicate Results Effectively<br />Create an Action Plan with a Sense of Urgency<br />Identify Milestones on the Path Towards a Preferred Future<br />Establish an Intelligence System<br />Institutionalise Strategic Thinking<br />“You can only predict things after they have happened” (Eugène Ionesco)<br />
    21. 21. What Are The Prospects?“Can we go on like this?”<br />Meta-forces<br />Macro-forces<br />Micro-forces<br />“Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions and can never pretend to any other office than to serve and obey them” (David Hume, 1783)<br />
    22. 22. However, the history of modern societies suggest also something for our future….<br />Figure 1: Kondratieff cycles – long waves of prosperity.Rolling 10-year yield on the S&P 500 since 1814 till March 2009 (in %, p. a.)<br />Source: Datastream; Illustration: Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis<br />
    23. 23. Three Meta-forces<br />VALUES<br />VISIONS<br />VECTORS<br />“Unless the investment in children is made, all of humanity's most fundamental long-term problems will remain fundamental long-term problems.”  (UNICEF) <br />
    24. 24. Values<br /> The Transformation Towards<br /> A Sustainable Responsible Civilization<br />“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” (Edmund Burke)<br />
    25. 25. DOWN<br />UP<br />Ecological footprint<br />Improving people’s health and well-being while respecting the limits of natural resources <br />*HDI = life expectancy + education level + purchasing power<br />Human Development Index*<br />Health & Well-being<br />Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006 "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development."<br />
    26. 26. The Great Global Values Debate<br />Millennium Development Goals<br />Cultures Consequences<br />Spiral Dynamics<br />World Values Survey<br />Interfaith Dialogue<br />“Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it” (André Gide )<br />
    27. 27. Cultural Values Map<br />“What we call basic truths are simply the ones we discover after all the others” (Albert Camus)<br />
    28. 28. Visions<br />“Twenty-first Century Enlightenment”<br />Self-Aware Autonomy<br />Empathetic Universalism<br />Progress and Ethics<br />The Social Aspiration Gap<br />Signposts to 21st C. Enlightenment<br />“Government is a badge of lost innocence… For were the impulses of conscience clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver” (Thomas Paine)<br />
    29. 29. To a sustainable world in 2050<br />From business-as-usual<br />
    30. 30. To a sustainable world in 2050<br />TODAY<br />From business-as-usual<br />
    31. 31. To a sustainable world in 2050<br />2050<br />From business-as-usual<br />
    32. 32. Vectors<br />“An agent that acts as a carrier or transporter”<br />Globalisation<br />Urbanisation<br />Environmentalism <br />Internet<br />Social Media<br />Faith – Based Movements<br />Terrorism<br />Pandemics<br />“The Internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow.” (Bill Gates )<br />
    33. 33. proGective -- Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT©<br />
    34. 34. Risks Interconnection Map 2011<br />
    35. 35. Imagineering the Built Environment<br />STRATEGIC FORESIGHT 2030“Just Imagine!”<br />Professor John S Ratcliffe<br />July 2011<br />
    36. 36. Exordium<br />A Changing World<br />The New, The Many, The Connected<br />A “Grand Transformation”<br />‘Metanoia’ – And the Learning Organisation<br />The Need for Strategic Foresight<br />“To shape the future you must first imagine it.” (Charles Handy)<br />
    37. 37. Brainstorm<br />Set the Strategic Question<br />Consider the Crucibles of Change<br />Divergence<br />Horizon Scanning<br />Explore the Built Environment: Driving Forces<br />Questionnaire Survey<br /> <br />Identify the Institutional Issues<br /> <br />Establish the Key Dimensions of Uncertainty<br />Emergence<br />Strategic Conversations<br />Create Alternative Future Scenarios<br /> <br /> <br />Agree A Preferred Future<br />Futures Workshops<br />Determine Strategic Policy Fields<br />Convergence<br />Propose An Action Agenda<br />“Have deep roots, a strong trunk, live long by looking long.” (Lao Tzu)<br />Move To Strategic Planning<br />The Strategic Foresight Process<br />
    38. 38. Emergence<br />“Jazz”<br />“Lords of Misrule”<br />Divergence<br />Fostering Foresight<br /> <br />Convergence<br />Society & Culture<br />Enlightened Leadership<br />“Wise Counsels”<br />Technology & Innovation<br />Synergy with Academe<br />Economics & Finance<br />Alternative Futures<br />Cultivating Collegiality<br />Environment & Ethics<br />Politics & Governance<br />Suffusing Sustainability<br />Preferred Vision<br />Uncertainty & Change<br />The Visioning Progression<br />“If you want to know how a man thinks, imagine the world when they were young” (Napoleon Bonaparte)<br />
    39. 39. Stage One: Divergence<br />Divergence<br /> <br />Society & Culture<br /> <br />Technology & Innovation<br /> <br />Economics & Finance<br /> <br /> <br />Environment & Ethics<br /> <br />Politics & Governance<br />Uncertainty & Change<br />“Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go”<br />
    40. 40. The Five Crucibles Of Change<br />Financial Markets and a New Economics<br />Global Governance and Social Disparity<br />Planetary Stewardship in an Age of Scarcity<br />Creative Cities with Connected Communities<br />Productivity, Partnership and People<br />“They must often change who would be constant in happiness or wisdom.” (Confucius)<br />
    41. 41. 1. Financial Markets And A New Economics<br />Age of sustainable living in a resource constrained world<br />The “Depletion of the West”<br />From an energy to an information economy<br />Restoration of trust<br />Advent of “behavioural economics”<br />“Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.” (Mao Tse-Tung)<br />
    42. 42. 2. Global Governance And Social Disparity<br />Widening gap between rich and poor<br />Capacity and quality of infrastructure<br />A multi-polar world<br />The illegal economy<br />World’s supply of capital<br />“All human beings are interconnected, one with all other elements in creation.” (Henry Reed)<br />
    43. 43. 3. Planetary Stewardship In An Age Of Scarcity<br />Onset of climate change towards global warming<br />Process of urbanisation<br />Energy deficits loom<br />Food system in crisis<br />Water scarcity and water shortages<br />“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.” (Native American Proverb)<br />
    44. 44. 4. Creative Cities With Connected Communities<br />Quality of life<br />Competitiveness through creativity<br />Shared vision and identity<br />Connectivity<br />Leaders and leadership<br />“Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist” (Kenneth Boulding)<br />
    45. 45. 5. Productivity, Partnership And People<br />Boosting productivity and promoting innovation<br />Role of the state and market capitalism<br />Public-private partnerships<br />Global companies<br />Localism and strengthening local democracy<br />“For each of our actions there are only consequences.” (James Lovelock)<br />
    46. 46. Built Environment: Exploring the Driving Forces of Change<br />Society and Culture<br />Technology and Innovation<br />Economics and Finance<br />Environment and Ethics<br />Politics and Governance<br />“Information is a monster that feeds off itself, while starving us of meaning, knowledge and wisdom.” (T.S. Eliot)<br />
    47. 47. Society and Culture<br />Cross disciplinarity, networks and systems<br />Global youth and young talent<br />Migration, diversity and mobility<br />The ‘experience environment’<br />New players, new sectors and new places and spaces<br />“He who does not trust enough, will not be trusted” (Lao Tzu)<br />
    48. 48. Technology and Innovation<br />Convergence, change and connectivity<br />Automation and augmentation<br />Prefabrication, customisation and lean construction<br />Smarter buildings and smarter services<br />Social networks, research and consultancy<br />“Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world” (Arthur Shopenhauer)<br />
    49. 49. Economics and Finance<br />Property as a physical and functional asset<br />Attractiveness of second- and third-tier cities<br />Growth of global corporations<br />Movement from quantity to quality<br />New period of unprecedented global development<br />“In a country well governed poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed wealth is something to be ashamed of” (Confucius, 5th Century BC)<br />
    50. 50. Environment and Ethics<br />Social worth and social responsibility<br />Urbanisation challenge to planners and developers<br />Risk management and competition<br />Green buildings and environmental performance<br />Trust, responsibility and judgement<br />“A little rebellion now and then is a good thing” (Thomas Jefferson)<br />
    51. 51. Politics and Governance<br />Transparency and accountability<br />Internationalisation and partnership<br />Property as a ‘people’ business<br />New metrics for a new era<br />Leadership and futuring<br />“It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)<br />
    52. 52. Stage Two: Emergence<br />Emergence<br />“Jazz”<br />“Lords of Misrule”<br /> <br />“Wise Counsels”<br />Alternative Futures<br />"All successful men and women are big dreamers. They imagine what their future could be, ideal in every respect, and then they work every day toward their distant vision, that goal or purpose." (Brian Tracy)<br />
    53. 53. Dimensions of Uncertainty<br />Global<br />Sustainability<br />Governance<br />Connectivity<br />Responsibility<br />Leadership<br />Stability<br />Security<br />Institutional<br />Influence<br />Regulation<br />Internationalisation<br />Enrolment<br />Collegiality<br />“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat” (Sun Tzu)<br />
    54. 54. Scenarios<br />“Jazz”<br />Multi-polarity with dynamic reciprocity<br />“Lords of Misrule”<br />Muddling along from decline to disaster<br />“Wise Counsels”<br />Transformation and the rise to maturity<br />“The way you can go – Isn’t the real way.The name you can say – Isn’t the real name” (Lao Tzu)<br />
    55. 55. More<br />Sustainable<br />Resilient<br />Wise Counsels<br />Resilience of Global Ecosystem<br />Jazz<br />Lords of Misrule<br />Vulnerable<br />Less<br />Sustainable<br />NOW<br />Regulation<br />Liberation<br />Human Social Systems<br />Critical Dimensions of Uncertainty<br />“In politics, if you want anything said, ask a man; if you want anything done, ask a woman” (Margaret Thatcher)<br />
    56. 56. “Jazz”Multi-Polarity with Dynamic Reciprocity<br />Global village of 2030 – mutual give and take<br />World of cultural change and innovation<br />Transparency a leitmotif of past 30 years<br />Diverse players – new performers<br />Global free market – sound legal systems<br />Government most active at local level<br />Mercantilism prevails – sustainability rudimentary<br />"In a time of drastic change it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." (Eric Hoffer)<br />
    57. 57. “Lords of Misrule”Muddling Along From Decline to Disaster<br />Familiar world – but failing<br />Modest economic reforms only<br />Ignorance about complexity of planets problems persist<br />Political stalemates on strategic issues<br />Too many interests – no clear leadership<br />Parochialism – partisanship – protectionism<br />Sustainability equals “First Raise Our Growth”<br />“When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it that something remarkably silly will be done”<br />
    58. 58. “Wise Counsels”Transformation And The Rise To Maturity<br />Age of “new powers and new alliances”<br />Radically different world order materializing<br />New leaders and new social institutions<br />Strengthening of government and governance<br />Millennium Goals met – if a little late<br />New economics emerging – resource based<br />Global communications networks and progress<br />“The future is always present, as a promise, a lure and a temptation” (Karl Popper)<br />
    59. 59. Convergence<br />Fostering Foresight<br /> <br />Convergence<br />Enlightened Leadership<br />Synergy with Academe<br />Cultivating Collegiality<br />Suffusing Sustainability<br />Preferred Vision<br />“The present system of global cooperation is not working sufficiently. [We need to] look at all issues on the global agenda in a systemic, integrated and strategic way. We have to rethink our values; we are living together in a global society with many different cultures. We have to redesign our processes; how do we deal with the issues and challenges on the global agenda?” (Klaus Schwab)<br />
    60. 60. The Built Environment: A Preferred Future<br />Be authentic, and never neglect the basics<br />Plan and commit for sustainability and liveability with respect for the public realm<br />Support the creation and maintenance of infrastructure and property assets as a framework for economic development<br />Embrace diversity and commit to social equity<br />Be bold, imaginative and demonstrate leadership<br />“Tomorrows successful leaders will value principles more than they value their company” (Stephen Covey)<br />
    61. 61. Strategic Policy Options<br />Fostering Foresight<br />Enlightened Leadership<br />Core Purpose<br />Synergy with Academe<br />Cultivating Collegiality<br />Suffusing Sustainability<br />“Hell is a place where nothing connects with nothing” (Dante)<br />
    62. 62. Lessons Learned<br />An evaluation of practice<br /><ul><li>Purpose
    63. 63. Participants
    64. 64. Process
    65. 65. Method
    66. 66. Implementation</li></ul>“I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past” (Thomas Jefferson)<br />
    67. 67. Purpose<br /><ul><li>Foster Client Comprehension
    68. 68. Establish Clear Goals
    69. 69. Connect with Strategic Planning
    70. 70. Resolve whether Learning or Planning
    71. 71. Decide Target Audience
    72. 72. Determine Issues and Topics
    73. 73. Pose Pertinent Strategic Question
    74. 74. Develop Shared Vision
    75. 75. Create Common Language
    76. 76. Remember Not Prediction
    77. 77. Attend to Organisational Culture</li></ul>“With the past, I have nothing to do; nor with the future. I live now” (Ralph Waldo Emerson)<br />
    78. 78. Participants<br /><ul><li>Gain Management Support/Involvement
    79. 79. Include Decision-Makers at Outset
    80. 80. Take Care in Team Selection
    81. 81. Include Diverse Interest Groups/Key Actors
    82. 82. Take Testimony from Experts
    83. 83. Introduce ‘Remarkable’ People
    84. 84. Choose Experienced Facilitators
    85. 85. Use Consultants Prudently
    86. 86. Select Right Interviewers/Interviewees
    87. 87. Find a ‘Champion’</li></ul>“Look before, or you'll find yourself behind” (Benjamin Franklin)<br />
    88. 88. Process<br /><ul><li>Recognise Different Ways of Futuring
    89. 89. Do Not Limit Scope of Exercise
    90. 90. Time and Timing All Important
    91. 91. Establish Links Elsewhere
    92. 92. Be Eclectic
    93. 93. Have Breadth and Depth in Foresighting
    94. 94. Conduct Pilot Study
    95. 95. Hold Induction/Training Workshop
    96. 96. Process Should be Continuous and Cumulative
    97. 97. Do Not Underestimate Amount of Work
    98. 98. Foster Executive Process</li></ul>“The future is a convenient place for dreams” (Anatole France)<br />
    99. 99. Implementation<br /><ul><li>Determine Responsibility for Action
    100. 100. Make Recommendations Simple and Relevant
    101. 101. Demonstrate Feasibility of Recommendations
    102. 102. Appreciate Value of Other Informal Results
    103. 103. Connect Costs and Benefits
    104. 104. Devise Set of Indicators
    105. 105. Be Innovative in Presentation
    106. 106. Provide Proper Framework for Results
    107. 107. Be Aware Success is Hard to Pinpoint
    108. 108. Recognise Learning is an Iterative Process
    109. 109. Gain Support</li></ul>“Tomorrow will give us something to think about” (Marcus Tullius Cicero)<br />
    110. 110. Method<br /><ul><li>Employ Recognisable Formal Method
    111. 111. Decide Inductive or Deductive Approach
    112. 112. Conduct Environmental Scanning
    113. 113. Appreciate Brainstorming at Heart
    114. 114. Pay Heed to Strategic Conversations
    115. 115. Have Awareness of Value of Metaphor
    116. 116. Anecdotes/Aphorisms Helpful
    117. 117. Invoke Feeling of Crisis
    118. 118. Include Relevant and Compelling Information
    119. 119. Arrange Special Forms of Presentation
    120. 120. Concentrate on Pivotal Uncertainties</li></ul>“Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present” (Marcus Aurelius)<br />
    121. 121. Embedding Futures ThinkingFive Most Important Ingredients<br /><ul><li>Continuous Environmental Scanning
    122. 122. Link to Strategy and Outcomes
    123. 123. Invocation of Crisis
    124. 124. Commitment of Leadership at All Levels
    125. 125. Delivering Competitive Advantage</li></ul>“He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future” (George Orwell)<br />
    126. 126. Embedding Futures ThinkingFive Greatest Obstacles<br /><ul><li>Overcoming Resistance to Change
    127. 127. Convincing Organisations that Long-Term Thinking is Possible
    128. 128. Extracting Organisations Away from a Reliance on Facts and Predictions
    129. 129. Building and Understanding of What Futures and Foresight Can Accomplish
    130. 130. Remembering Why Futures Practitioners Are There</li></ul>“I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life” (George F. Burns)<br />
    131. 131. “Therefore hold to the things which are reliable<br /> Look to simplicity; embrace purity<br /> Lessen the self: diminish desire”<br /> (Tao TeChing)<br />
    132. 132. Counter Implementation Games<br />Raising / lowering the level of abstraction<br />Seeking more information / reflection<br />Anti-technique bias – “lets get on with it”!<br />Philosophical, legal, theological viewpoints<br />Saluting the idea, but no commitment<br />Wise owl<br />Flippancy and facetiousness<br />Lie low, rely on inertia<br />Insider knowledge<br />“But we’re still good”<br />“There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?” (Robert Kennedy)<br />
    133. 133. Enlightened Leadership:Providing Global Thought Leadership for the Build Environment and Promoting Authentic and Aware Leadership Qualities Amongst Members<br />"...you better start swimmin'<br />Or you'll sink like a stone.<br />For the times they are a-changin'." (Bob Dylan)<br />
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