May 2010 cib - flight for the 21st century

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"icarus" or "the Phoenix"~two scenarios for the future of humanity.What can we do?
A presentation to the CIB World Congress 2010 at The Lowry Conference Centre in Salford.

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May 2010 cib - flight for the 21st century

  1. 1. John Ratcliffe Visiting Professor: University of Salford SOBE Senior Fellow: Henley Business School Salford May 13 th 2010 CIB WORLD CONGRESS 2010 “ F LIGHT F OR T HE 21 st C ENTURY : ‘ I CARUS ’ O R ‘T HE P HOENIX ’ ”
  2. 2. <ul><li>Is this humanity’s last century – or a century that sets the world on a course towards a spectacular new future? </li></ul>“ Icarus” or “ The Phoenix”
  3. 3. I CARUS <ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Food and Water </li></ul><ul><li>Safety and Security </li></ul><ul><li>Population </li></ul><ul><li>Energy </li></ul>“ If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.” (Irwin Corey)
  4. 4. T HE P HOENIX <ul><li>Urban Promise </li></ul><ul><li>GM and Gardening </li></ul><ul><li>GeoEngineering </li></ul><ul><li>Transformative Technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear </li></ul>“ A pessimistic sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimistic sees the opportunity in every difficulty” (Winston Churchill)
  5. 5. F ORESIGHTING <ul><li>P AST H ISTORIC </li></ul>P RESENT I NDICATIVE F UTURE I MPERFECT Strategic foresight is having a view of what can be done by organisations today to positively influence the future.
  6. 6. F IVE B IG Q UESTIONS <ul><li>How did it happen? </li></ul><ul><li>Where are we now? </li></ul><ul><li>What lies ahead? </li></ul><ul><li>Can we do anything about it? </li></ul><ul><li>And, if we don’t? </li></ul>“ It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)
  7. 7. H OW D ID I T H APPEN ? <ul><li>Waves of creative destruction </li></ul><ul><li>Depletion of the West </li></ul><ul><li>Macro-economic mismanagement </li></ul><ul><li>Flawed financial systems </li></ul><ul><li>Sheer greed </li></ul>“ If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid” (John Maynard Keynes)
  8. 8. W HERE A RE W E N OW ? <ul><li>End of market fundamentalism </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of trust in institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Enterprise not speculation </li></ul><ul><li>Peak oil or peak people? </li></ul><ul><li>What would Google do? </li></ul>“ Bring your desires down to your present means. Increase them only when your increased means permit.”  (Aristotle)
  9. 9. G ive the people control and we will use it Y our worst customer is your best friend D o what you do best – and link to the rest J oin a network. B e a platform. T hink distributed I f you’re not searchable you won’t be found L ife is public – so is business Y our customers are your ad agency S mall is the new big. T he mass market is dead M iddlemen are doomed. F ree is a business model T here is an inverse relationship between control and trust T rust the people. L isten. B e honest. B e transparent C ollaborate. L ife is live. A nswers are instantaneous E ncourage, enable and protect innovation. S implify, Simplify D O N’ T B E E V I L !
  10. 10. W HAT L IES A HEAD ? <ul><li>Sustainable living in a resource constrained world </li></ul><ul><li>From West to East </li></ul><ul><li>A multi-polar world </li></ul><ul><li>A new economics </li></ul><ul><li>From conspicuous to conscious consumption </li></ul>“ By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” (Confucius, 5th Century BC)
  11. 11. C AN W E D O A NYTHING A BOUT I T ? <ul><li>A new world order </li></ul><ul><li>Defined by our values </li></ul><ul><li>Ethical leadership </li></ul><ul><li>The Great Leap Downward </li></ul><ul><li>A new mindset </li></ul>“ We have it in our power to begin the world over again” (Thomas Paine)
  12. 12. A ND I F W E D ON ’ T ? <ul><li>The ‘perfect storm’ </li></ul><ul><li>Resource wars </li></ul><ul><li>Détente with dilemma </li></ul><ul><li>Protectionism, gangsterism and lawlessness </li></ul><ul><li>Humanity’s last century </li></ul>“ I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last.” (Revelation, 22. 13)
  13. 13. T HE D OORS O F P ERCEPTION <ul><li>“ If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things through narrow chinks of his cavern.” </li></ul><ul><li>(William Blake “The marriage of Heaven and Hell”) </li></ul>
  14. 14. E NERGY T HE K EY <ul><li>Renewables are the ultimate goal </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear buys us the time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Build Fission </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fund Fusion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distribute Locally </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Research </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Generation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Storage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distribution </li></ul></ul>“ Through the release of atomic energy, our generation has brought into the world the most revolutionary force since prehistoric man's discovery of fire.”  (Albert Einstein)
  15. 15. F ORESIGHT T HE F RAME <ul><li>How Will We Think? </li></ul><ul><li>Will We Behave Differently? </li></ul><ul><li>What About Real Estate? </li></ul><ul><li>Who Will Be Involved? </li></ul><ul><li>What Really Lies Ahead? </li></ul>“ Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.” (Albert Einstein) P ROPOSITUM : F IVE B IG Q UESTIONS
  16. 16. A N EW M INDSET <ul><li>“ Hell is a place where nothing connects with nothing” (Dante) </li></ul><ul><li>The Disciplined Mind </li></ul><ul><li>The Synthesizing Mind </li></ul><ul><li>The Creating Mind </li></ul><ul><li>The Respectful Mind </li></ul><ul><li>The Ethical Mind </li></ul>
  17. 17. N EW L EADERSHIP ? “ When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it that something remarkably silly will be done”
  18. 18. “ Imagine if capitalism collapsed as it did not allow prices to tell the ecological truth; just as socialism collapsed because it did not allow prices to tell the economic truth” (John Ratcliffe, 2008)

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