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090519 The Shape of Things to Come: Learning to See Human Capital Markets
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090519 The Shape of Things to Come: Learning to See Human Capital Markets

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Deomographic Distributions might seem like a heady notion. This presentation walks the audience through the notion that the shape of demographic distributions within the organization or in the local …

Deomographic Distributions might seem like a heady notion. This presentation walks the audience through the notion that the shape of demographic distributions within the organization or in the local area are the key determinants for rcruiting effectiveness and organizational productivity.

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    • 1. The Shape of Things to Come Understanding Recruiting Markets © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 1
    • 2. Introductions • Name • Organization • Brief Bio • Goals for Today © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 2
    • 3. Module 1: Spiky and Flat © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 3
    • 4. Agenda: Spiky and Flat • Lively Conversation on Demographic Changes • Deliver Meaty Demographic Detail • There Is No National Anything • Define Opportunity • Offer Solutions / Framework © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 4
    • 5. Declining Fertility Rates 1950 2007 8.00 6.7 6.9 6.00 5.9 5.9 5.5 4.00 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.00 2.4 2 1.5 0 Sub Saharan Africa Middle East / N. Africa Asia Latin America / Carribean N. America Europe © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 5
    • 6. Basic Dynamic Population Growth Rate Birth Rate Death Rate Time © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 6
    • 7. Age Distribution Working Age Working Age © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 7
    • 8. Demographic Transition Digital, Cell, Internet, Technology Other Transitional Forces Economic Miracle Demographic Gift Youth Demographic Investment Sustainable Growth 1945 1960 2010 2025 GDP Per Capita Growth Rate © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 8
    • 9. Non-Industrial World © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 9
    • 10. Industrial World © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 10
    • 11. India © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 11
    • 12. One Generation: Pakistan © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 12
    • 13. Pyramids • Embedded Historical View • Familiar • “They’re Everywhere” • Family • Community • Organizations • Government • Invalid Assumption © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 13
    • 14. Developmental Stages 70 55 40 25 10 Growth Maturity Decline Dying © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 14
    • 15. Other Shapes 70 55 40 25 10 Adolescence Revitalization Layoffs Failed Renewals © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 15
    • 16. Other Shapes?? © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 16
    • 17. Recap: Opportunity • Organizational Shape Defines Opportunity Flow • Opportunity Availability Defines Growth • Opportunity Consolidates With Tenure • Inexperience = Agility + Resilience = Growth • Experimentation and Failure Essential For Survival © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 17
    • 18. There Is No Nation © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 18
    • 19. Immigration © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 19
    • 20. Immigrants Native Born © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 20
    • 21. Where Immigrants Go © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 21
    • 22. Homeownership © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 22
    • 23. Population Density Source: Department of Commerce © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 23
    • 24. Where The Roads Are © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 24
    • 25. Population Plus GDP Source: Yale – G-Econ Group © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 25
    • 26. 12 Mega Regions Source: Who’s Your City © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 26
    • 27. College Degree Distribution © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 27
    • 28. How Obama Won © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 28
    • 29. Red Blue by County © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 29
    • 30. Prime Industry © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 30
    • 31. Ethnicity © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 31
    • 32. Unemployment By County © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 32
    • 33. Regionalization of Work Source: Who’s Your City? © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 33
    • 34. Over 65 by MSA © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 34
    • 35. Employment to Population Ratio © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 35
    • 36. Median Earnings © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 36
    • 37. Life Expectancy © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 37
    • 38. Commute Time © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 38
    • 39. US Workforce vs Population © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 39
    • 40. Who Moves © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 40
    • 41. Domestic Migration © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 41
    • 42. Developmental Stages 70 55 40 25 10 Growth Maturity Decline Dying © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 42
    • 43. No One Story, No One Nation • Fencepost is the Midwest. • Young are leaving fast • Cities saved by immigrants • Floating Box is Manufacturing, Metals, Agri • Young are Gone • Remnants are cash cows © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 43
    • 44. Other Shapes 70 55 40 25 10 Adolescence Revitalization Layoffs Failed Renewals © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 44
    • 45. Take Aways #1 • Generalizations Fail • Paradoxical Trends • Shrink while Growing • Diverse Within Structure • Spiky and Flat • The Kids Are Leaving The Middle © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 45
    • 46. Take Aways #2 • Let’s Discuss Conventional Wisdom • Attrition is Bad • Experience Is Good • Circle of Trusted Advisors • Retention Is Good • Referral Programs are Smart • HR/Recruiting Are Uniform © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 46
    • 47. Take Aways 3 • Regional Culture Trumps National • Many, Many Niches, All Different • Elements of Culture • Ethnicity • Life Expectancy • Manners and Customs • Geography, Traffic, Politics, Density © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 47
    • 48. BREAK © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 48
    • 49. Context Module 2: Diagnosis Application Set Ideals Understand Understand The Basic Shapes © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 49
    • 50. Pyramids http://www.china-profile.com/data/ani_ceu_pop.htm © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 50
    • 51. © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 51
    • 52. Grant County, ND Orange County, FL © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 52
    • 53. Atlanta Salt Lake City © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com
    • 54. Mansfield, OH San Francisco © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 54
    • 55. San Antonio Detroit © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 55
    • 56. Boston United States © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 56
    • 57. http://sdrurallife.sdstate.edu/populationpyramids2.htm Hughes County South Dakota McPherson County © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 57
    • 58. Fresno California Sacramento Bakersfield San Diego Chico 58 © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com
    • 59. Austin Texas College Station Dallas San Antonio Houston © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 59
    • 60. Honolulu Hawaii Kauai Maui 60 © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com
    • 61. Pittsburgh Cleveland Detroit Grand Rapids Bloomington Flint © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 61
    • 62. Boston New York, NY Philadelphia Atlanta Washington, DC Baltimore 62 © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com
    • 63. Denver Seattle Portland, San Jose Oakland Los Angeles 63 © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com
    • 64. Migration Life Expectancy Ethnicity Education Shaping Baby Boom Factors College Town Industry Religion Manners © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 64
    • 65. BREAK © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 65
    • 66. Diagnostics © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 66
    • 67. Making Your Own Charts © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 67
    • 68. BREAK © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 68
    • 69. Where Opportunity Goes © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 69
    • 70. Where Everything Else Flows © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 70
    • 71. ■High Growth ■Hierarchical ■Innovative ■Entrepreneurial ■Startups, Bio-Tech ■Modest Growth ■Distributed ■Incremental Improvement ■Procedural ■New Fortune 500 ■Very Low Growth ■Increasingly Hierarchical ■Opportunity Consolidates at Top ■Procedural ■Old Media, New Mfg, Retail ■Death Spiral ■Punitive Cultural Enforcement ■No Retention of the Young ■Grasping ■Autos, Metals, Old Mfg © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 71
    • 72. Your Goals © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 72
    • 73. Geo Shape Current Shape Desired End State © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 73
    • 74. © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 74
    • 75. © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 75
    • 76. Wrap Up © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 76